bowes

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  1. Their other typical voter is someone in the rural South West that traditionally voted Liberal because they didn't like government bureaucracy. They also don't like the EU's even larger bureaucracy that the Lib Dems have thrown themselves heavily behind
  2. He may well lose his seat to Labour this time
  3. I think it's partly that and partly they assumed their pre-existing voters were all massive Europhiles. In actual fact 1 in 3 of their voters voted Leave and they've probably lost them for good now.
  4. Doesn't surprise me at all. Every vote for Labour this election is a personal vote for Jeremy Corbyn and he will treat them as such. If he gets lower than Ed Miliband in the popular vote then it may be possible to remove him, this looks unlikely at the moment
  5. Normally I'd agree but the Lib Dems look like losing both votes and seats this election despite the fact that both Labour and the Conservatives have left a lot of open goals for them
  6. About a third of 2015 Lib Dem voters voted Leave so it's not surprising the party have lost them. The Lib dems could easily end up with only a couple of seats and if Labour elect a centre-left leader it wouldn't be obvious what the Lib Dems stand for
  7. I could quite easily see UKIP end up with only 3% of the vote this time round. I wouldn't rule out the Lib Dems being pretty much killed off by this election as well
  8. ICM and ComRes adjust their figures based on expected turnout by demographic. The other polling companies use methods more similar to those used pre-2015. It's hard to say who is right as it's entirely possible Corbyn will persuade more young people to turn out to vote. However, his fan club seems to disproportionately be young middle class people who usually vote anyway (albeit often for Lib Dems or Greens) and are disproportionately located close to universities
  9. I'd guess he'd send Emily Thornberry? Though Keir Starmer would be a better choice
  10. I'm thinking we'll see something like the American election where Hilary Clinton racked up huge majorities in California and the North East and halved the Republican lead in Texas but got wiped out in all the poor swing states. I think more young people will vote but it will be more likely to be young people in London, Bristol, Manchester and Nottingham rather than young people in Halifax, Wakefield, Stoke, Bolton etc (Obviously the analogy only goes so far as Hilary and Theresa are more alike than either is like Trump or Corbyn)
  11. The East Premier should easily get off the ground with a decent sized league. The West one may have to start small and expand over time. Initially it will be dominated by Welsh clubs
  12. This election is very unusual. The Lib Dems have lost half their voters from last time (roughly a quarter each switching to the Conservatives and Labour) but have almost replaced them with new hardline Remain voters switching from those parties (almost exclusively in London and the Home Counties). 20% of Labour Leave voters look like switching to the Conservatives, whilst 10% of Conservative Remain voters look like switching to Labour (a further 10% of Conservative Remain voters are switching to Lib Dems as touched one before). UKIP could easily lose 80% of their 2015 vote (likely to split 60-65% Conservative and 15-20% Labour) and Labour are likely to pick up half the Green vote. There are also likely to be young people turning out for the first time to vote Labour. My summary of this: Labour to rack up bigger majorities in inner city constituencies with inner London, Bristol, Manchester and Nottingham being good results for them. The Conservatives to win about 40 mostly working class Leave voting consituencies from Labour Labour to increase their vote share in the south, but gain very few seats outside the big cities. They are likely to go from 3rd or 4th to 2nd in a lot of constituencies. The Conservative to pick up about ten heavily Unionist seats from the SNP in Scotland
  13. I think a lot depends on whether people turn out to vote. Based on people who normally vote the Conservatives are about 12-14% ahead, but this could be reduced to 8-9% if young people who normally don't vote can be persuaded to turn out by Corbyn. We're getting some polls giving the former figure and some the latter figure based on what methods they're using
  14. Depends on the restructure. South Wales and possibly Oxford would fold on the spot if they were dropped into this new amateur competition. Hemel could survive with local players. I'd go with two divisions of ten at Super League level and promote Toronto there. Drop five clubs into the new Championship to join teams 2-8 in League 1. Teams 9-16 in league 1 to join Manchester and one to three others in the lower league. The only tricky part is whether to try to fit Avignon in. I think there's no real reason them playing below Super League 2, but they may not be quote ready for that level yet. The following format looks better than what we've got: Super League 1: Castleford Catalans Huddersfield Hull Leeds St Helens Salford Wakefield Warrington Wigan Super League 2: Leigh Widnes Hull KR Toulouse London Bradford Featherstone Halifax Sheffield Toronto Championship: Batley Dewsbury Oldham Rochdale Swinton Workington Whitehaven Barrow York Hunslet Keighley Doncaster League 1: London Skolars Newcastle North Wales Gloucestershire Coventry Oxford Hemel South Wales Manchester Bishops Burton College
  15. I don't think so. I think they are looking at a separate competition for that, but don't know who'll be in it