2015 - Middle 8 Predictions

[Krytensmate]

Why are 

 

it's not my fault games which are a foregone conclusion get less in attendances than close run games. People don't want to watch games were they know the result with near certainty even if we do get a rare shock (which, by definition if they wee common would not be shocks)

So now its ' near certainty ' ,whats up , is your crystal ball dusty ?

[scotchy]

Why are

So now its ' near certainty ' ,whats up , is your crystal ball dusty ?

you are embarrassing yourself. This is called 2015 - middle 8 predictions. You have some pretty obvious insecurity issues if you are getting so precious about someone making a prediction on it.

[Ackroman]

no surprise that Scotch-Cider has reverted to type.

 

Clearly there's only one insecurity and that's SL clubs living up to the hype...actually no 2 insecurities, I forgot to include your own, otherwise for one so sure about the outcome, you'ld start these threads yourself.

[scotchy]

no surprise that Scotch-Cider has reverted to type.

Clearly there's only one insecurity and that's SL clubs living up to the hype...actually no 2 insecurities, I forgot to include your own, otherwise for one so sure about the outcome, you'ld start these threads yourself.

can you try that again so it makes sense?

[Dave T]

Based on my prediction, Leigh would have the following fixtures in the middle 8 next year:

 

1 - Hull KR (Home)

2 - Castleford (Away)

3 - Wakefield (Home)

4 - Bradford (Away)

5 - London (Home)

6 - Featherstone (Away)

7 - Widnes (Home)

 

I think Leigh would have given a good showing with that fixture list this year, never mind next year with a higher cap.

 

In my prediction, Cas could finish 9th and have:

1 - Bradford (Home)

2 - Widnes (Away)

3 - Leigh (Home)

4 - Hull KR (Away)

5 - Wakefield (Home) 

6 - London (Away)

7 - Featherstone (Home)

 

Again, for a 9th ranked SL team, that isn't a massively easy bunch of fixtures. We are not talking amazing quality at 9th and 10th and 11th in SL - they will have spent much of the season losing, and will then play a group of fixtures which should be competitive.

 

I don't see why fans would be turned off by these fixtures, time may tell and if we do see the lower teams getting hammered consistently then fair enough, but from just looking at those fixtures, I don't see certain failure.

[GaryO]

Very interesting Dave and thanks for submitting it, how did you work out the fixtures? I have not seen the criteria for aligning who will play who, and having the extra home fixture will be very important, I see that you have both Leigh and CA's with 4 home games and 3 away, please divulge.

[scotchy]

Based on my prediction, Leigh would have the following fixtures in the middle 8 next year:

1 - Hull KR (Home)

2 - Castleford (Away)

3 - Wakefield (Home)

4 - Bradford (Away)

5 - London (Home)

6 - Featherstone (Away)

7 - Widnes (Home)

I think Leigh would have given a good showing with that fixture list this year, never mind next year with a higher cap.

In my prediction, Cas could finish 9th and have:

1 - Bradford (Home)

2 - Widnes (Away)

3 - Leigh (Home)

4 - Hull KR (Away)

5 - Wakefield (Home)

6 - London (Away)

7 - Featherstone (Home)

Again, for a 9th ranked SL team, that isn't a massively easy bunch of fixtures. We are not talking amazing quality at 9th and 10th and 11th in SL - they will have spent much of the season losing, and will then play a group of fixtures which should be competitive.

I don't see why fans would be turned off by these fixtures, time may tell and if we do see the lower teams getting hammered consistently then fair enough, but from just looking at those fixtures, I don't see certain failure.

strip out the SL v SL fixtures because they aren't really relevant to what I'm saying.

Put those 4 fixtures in to SL, Fev, Leigh, Bradford, London and that is an easy run.

If those 4 teams were in a 16 team SL next season(as they are) they are the bottom 4 teams.

People are getting lost in a perception that the best of the championships can compete with the worst of SL in a one off game. And probably they can but there is only game which is 12th in SL v 1 in the championship. There are as many which are 9th in SL v 4th in the championships.

[Ackroman]

can you try that again so it makes sense?

Scotchy and Park Cider are either one in the same or I suspect, closely related. Too many similar reference points and an almost uncanny desire to create an unnecessary divide between supporters of SL and Championship clubs regardless of their allegiances. If not, there must be something in the river Aire that I don't drink. If people in Keighley feel inclined to poison people in Leeds, I can see why based on your posts.

 

Secondly, you are blowing a lot of smoke where the sun doesn't shine about how SL clubs will wipe the floor with Championship clubs in the middle 8. This indicates some clear insecurities over the matter. Championship fans have no fear of the middle 8, only SL fans. Nothing to lose and everything to gain and vice versa.

 

The loudest detractors are the ones living with the biggest fear but very often want someone else to take the hit. I think this time it will be Wakey but next time,...who knows?

[Dave T]

Very interesting Dave and thanks for submitting it, how did you work out the fixtures? I have not seen the criteria for aligning who will play who, and having the extra home fixture will be very important, I see that you have both Leigh and CA's with 4 home games and 3 away, please divulge.

http://www.therfl.co.uk/rlnewera

 

This shows how the fixtures are worked out. My example for Cas above was them finishing 10th not 9th, but it is all fictitious anyway!

 

It explains that in the Middle 8 (Qualifiers) that 9th/10th are classed as 1st/2nd, and 1st/2nd in Champ are classed as 3rd/4th for the purposes of the draw.

[Dave T]

strip out the SL v SL fixtures because they aren't really relevant to what I'm saying.

Put those 4 fixtures in to SL, Fev, Leigh, Bradford, London and that is an easy run.

If those 4 teams were in a 16 team SL next season(as they are) they are the bottom 4 teams.

People are getting lost in a perception that the best of the championships can compete with the worst of SL in a one off game. And probably they can but there is only game which is 12th in SL v 1 in the championship. There are as many which are 9th in SL v 4th in the championships.

But when people say the middle 8 will be a flop you do need to look at all the fixtures, not just hand pick the ones that suit your argument.

 

You say Fev, Leigh, Bradford and London is an easy run, but you ignore a couple of things. Firstly, it is not an easy run for the poor SL teams, I don't buy that. Secondly, last year the gap in the salary cap was huge, less so now as the Championship cap has been increased.

 

It may be competitive, it may not be - I don't think there is certainty either way.

 

One final point, I wonder if those calling for an end to this due to differences in salary cap are against an expanded World Club Series due to the difference in Salary Caps between the teams there.

[scotchy]

Scotchy and Park Cider are either one in the same or I suspect, closely related. Too many similar reference points and an almost uncanny desire to create an unnecessary divide between supporters of SL and Championship clubs regardless of their allegiances. If not, there must be something in the river Aire that I don't drink. If people in Keighley feel inclined to poison people in Leeds, I can see why based on your posts.

Secondly, you are blowing a lot of smoke where the sun doesn't shine about how SL clubs will wipe the floor with Championship clubs in the middle 8. This indicates some clear insecurities over the matter. Championship fans have no fear of the middle 8, only SL fans. Nothing to lose and everything to gain and vice versa.

The loudest detractors are the ones living with the biggest fear but very often want someone else to take the hit. I think this time it will be Wakey but next time,...who knows?

I have no fear whatsoever about the middle 8. My club won't be in it.

It is simply my opinion that Cas Salford Widnes and the two Hull clubs have a set of players far superior to those in the championship.

That this opinion sends you in to this spiral of anger is just a funny bonus.

[scotchy]

But when people say the middle 8 will be a flop you do need to look at all the fixtures, not just hand pick the ones that suit your argument.

You say Fev, Leigh, Bradford and London is an easy run, but you ignore a couple of things. Firstly, it is not an easy run for the poor SL teams, I don't buy that. Secondly, last year the gap in the salary cap was huge, less so now as the Championship cap has been increased.

It may be competitive, it may not be - I don't think there is certainty either way.

One final point, I wonder if those calling for an end to this due to differences in salary cap are against an expanded World Club Series due to the difference in Salary Caps between the teams there.

Any expanded WCC would need a narrowing of the SC definitely.

I don't need to look at the SL v SL fixtures because they aren't relevant to an point about the difference between the SL and Championship sides.

I don't think players like Ritchie Mathern who couldn't get in a poor Wakefield side and bringing championship clubs massively closer to the lower end of SL.

As I say, a historically awful London side who conceded over 1200 points in SL and a terrible Bradford side who conceded nearly 1000 aren't massively stronger ( and I don't think stronger at all) are expected to be top 4 in the championship. I don't see how it is controversial to say a London side which averaged conceding nearly 40 points a game in SL last year is probably going to be on the wrong side of some big results in SL.

[Dave T]

Any expanded WCC would need a narrowing of the SC definitely.

I don't need to look at the SL v SL fixtures because they aren't relevant to an point about the difference between the SL and Championship sides.

I don't think players like Ritchie Mathern who couldn't get in a poor Wakefield side and bringing championship clubs massively closer to the lower end of SL.

As I say, a historically awful London side who conceded over 1200 points in SL and a terrible Bradford side who conceded nearly 1000 aren't massively stronger ( and I don't think stronger at all) are expected to be top 4 in the championship. I don't see how it is controversial to say a London side which averaged conceding nearly 40 points a game in SL last year is probably going to be on the wrong side of some big results in SL.

Let's look at a worst case scenario and all of the games go with league position:

 

    Pts 1 Castleford 14 2 Hull FC 12 3 Widnes 10 4 Wakefield 8 5 Leigh 6 6 Bradford 4 7 Featherstone 2 8 London 0

 

This means that You would have Wakefield and Leigh in a playoff. That would probably generate some excitement, but possibly not so much as the 4 Championship teams are deemed to be noncompetitive.

 

However, what the table above shows is that all it takes is the odd result to go against form to shake things up. It wouldn't take much to drag Widnes and Wakefield into that relegation mix.

 

Of course this will all be seen in time, but I just don't buy that these 28 games at this phase will be unattractive.

[scotchy]

Let's look at a worst case scenario and all of the games go with league position:

Pts 1 Castleford 14 2 Hull FC 12 3 Widnes 10 4 Wakefield 8 5 Leigh 6 6 Bradford 4 7 Featherstone 2 8 London 0

This means that You would have Wakefield and Leigh in a playoff. That would probably generate some excitement, but possibly not so much as the 4 Championship teams are deemed to be noncompetitive.

However, what the table above shows is that all it takes is the odd result to go against form to shake things up. It wouldn't take much to drag Widnes and Wakefield into that relegation mix.

Of course this will all be seen in time, but I just don't buy that these 28 games at this phase will be unattractive.

that's nor the worst case scenario. Worst case scenario is that the

championship sides take points off each other. It's perfectly possible and not all that unlikely that all 4 championship sides lose all 4 games against the SL opponents and we go in to that 4/5 play off (again a convoluted addition because of a lack of confidence in the competitiveness) with a 5th place team on 2 or 4 points against a team in 4th of 10 points.

That would leave us with a 97 WCCesque situation where Leigh for instance are qualifying for a play off against a team who earned many more points than them and had already comfortably beaten them. We saw how poorly that was received and the damage is still being dealt with today

[Ackroman]

I have no fear whatsoever about the middle 8. My club won't be in it.

It is simply my opinion that Cas Salford Widnes and the two Hull clubs have a set of players far superior to those in the championship.

That this opinion sends you in to this spiral of anger is just a funny bonus.

 

I see you've ignored my first point.

 

No fear? A symptom of youth rather than experience because I have a funny feeling Leeds will be in the middle 8 unless you're supporting Hunslet any time soon.

 

The records show clearly that Leeds had a poor end to 2014. No wins Aug or Sept, 2 wins July & 1 in June. I bet that if Leeds start poorly, you'll want Mcdermott's head by April and an account with M&S by July.

 

Spiral of anger. Never heard of that one.

[scotchy]

I see you've ignored my first point.

No fear? A symptom of youth rather than experience because I have a funny feeling Leeds will be in the middle 8 unless you're supporting Hunslet any time soon.

The records show clearly that Leeds had a poor end to 2014. No wins Aug or Sept, 2 wins July & 1 in June. I bet that if Leeds start poorly, you'll want Mcdermott's head by April and an account with M&S by July.

Spiral of anger. Never heard of that one.

I'm not Bound to respond to everyone of your idiotic statements.

leeds have never been relegated in over 100 years of Rugby League, we have qualified for every single play offs in the Super League era. Sometimes you have a lot of evidence to work from and can be confident in your predictions.

I'd be more than prepared to put my money where my mouth is. Charity bet, name your price but I will happily bet we see a 50 point scoreline in the middle 8 before Leeds play in it

[Dave T]

that's nor the worst case scenario. Worst case scenario is that the

championship sides take points off each other. It's perfectly possible and not all that unlikely that all 4 championship sides lose all 4 games against the SL opponents and we go in to that 4/5 play off (again a convoluted addition because of a lack of confidence in the competitiveness) with a 5th place team on 2 or 4 points against a team in 4th of 10 points.

That would leave us with a 97 WCCesque situation where Leigh for instance are qualifying for a play off against a team who earned many more points than them and had already comfortably beaten them. We saw how poorly that was received and the damage is still being dealt with today

Yes that's a good point, worst case wasn't the correct phrase to use. I was going for an extreme example.

 

Your example can't work by the way. The team in 5th will have played three games against own-division opposition and will have 4 points (unless we have some freak draws all round situation).

 

Of course these scenarios are all quite extreme though, the reality is that a 7 game set of fixtures leaves plenty of opportunities for different combinations. 

 

We are not talking about Wigan playing Oldham here, we are talking about weaker SL clubs playing stronger Championship clubs - games like Leigh v Wakefield.

[The Parksider]

I don't need to look at the SL v SL fixtures because they aren't relevant to an point about the difference between the SL and Championship sides.

 

 

Keep going lad, although I do agree there's a chance someone could knock off Wakefield. 

 

It's a fact the SL clubs attract the better players over championship and relegated clubs and have had a good pick. It's a fact the Salary caps are £800K apart.

 

If it is a close run race and a CC club get through, someone will have done badly with an advantage, over someone who'll have done brilliantly at a disadvantage.

 

Time will tell, but if you are right, as I was about relegation leading to reduced crowds (bottom four clubs crowds down by a quarter under "jeopardy", be prepared for a lot of stick and a lot of daft excuses. The facts can be hard for some to take. As above I'm sure you'll be fine.

[thundergaz]

In hindsight yes the SL clubs in the middle 8 should walk the middle 8. But I don't think that will be the case myself. Will teams like wakey c@s etc fancy coming to places like Fev on wet and windy days ect. SL clubs of course have by far the better advantages but say for a scenario Fev get beat by 3 SL teams but happen to shock one of them and beat them that puts that SL club in real danger of dropping out. Ok it doesn't really help Fev with losing the other 3 games but it will help say a team like Leigh to put pressure on that SL club. All it will take is one champ club to beat a SL club and the middle 8 opens up big time for that one SL club. I personally think yes they will be some blow out games but not by 50 points plus difference etc. If a club gets an hammering its most likely to be my club because they are not FT and playing FT teams week in week out will take its toll. You have to remember apart from Fev its not FT against part time teams anymore and I think most games will be competetive in the middle 8 but its just all speculation at this moment in time.

[scotchy]

Yes that's a good point, worst case wasn't the correct phrase to use. I was going for an extreme example.

Your example can't work by the way. The team in 5th will have played three games against own-division opposition and will have 4 points (unless we have some freak draws all round situation).

Of course these scenarios are all quite extreme though, the reality is that a 7 game set of fixtures leaves plenty of opportunities for different combinations.

We are not talking about Wigan playing Oldham here, we are talking about weaker SL clubs playing stronger Championship clubs - games like Leigh v Wakefield.

Or Cas v Shefield which last year finished 60-16.

[thundergaz]

Or Cas v Shefield which last year finished 60-16.

Again FT against part time that isn't the case next season. Also the eagles were very poor last season by their own standards.

[scotchy]

In hindsight yes the SL clubs in the middle 8 should walk the middle 8. But I don't think that will be the case myself. Will teams like wakey c@s etc fancy coming to places like Fev on wet and windy days ect. SL clubs of course have by far the better advantages but say for a scenario Fev get beat by 3 SL teams but happen to shock one of them and beat them that puts that SL club in real danger of dropping out. Ok it doesn't really help Fev with losing the other 3 games but it will help say a team like Leigh to put pressure on that SL club. All it will take is one champ club to beat a SL club and the middle 8 opens up big time for that one SL club. I personally think yes they will be some blow out games but not by 50 points plus difference etc. If a club gets an hammering its most likely to be my club because they are not FT and playing FT teams week in week out will take its toll. You have to remember apart from Fev its not FT against part time teams anymore and I think most games will be competetive in the middle 8 but its just all speculation at this moment in time.

a championship club can in a one off game beat an SL club. Nobody discounts it as a possibility. Very unlikely but possible. However they not only have to beat an SL side. It is likely they then need to beat the other 3 championship sides, and even then they are likely to have to play the SL side again on the play off.

[Krytensmate]

Keep going lad, although I do agree there's a chance someone could knock off Wakefield. 

 

It's a fact the SL clubs attract the better players over championship and relegated clubs and have had a good pick. It's a fact the Salary caps are £800K apart.

 

If it is a close run race and a CC club get through, someone will have done badly with an advantage, over someone who'll have done brilliantly at a disadvantage.

 

Time will tell, but if you are right, as I was about relegation leading to reduced crowds (bottom four clubs crowds down by a quarter under "jeopardy", be prepared for a lot of stick and a lot of daft excuses. The facts can be hard for some to take. As above I'm sure you'll be fine.

Again ,lets look at Leigh  they havent gone out and signed a new squad in competition with SL clubs for players ,they have retained 90% of last years squad ( essentially the best 90% ) , that squad has moved from part time to full time and added some numbers and experience 

 

Now the argument has always been that a promoted team wasnt as good as a relegated one ,we will now find out 

 

You will argue that Leighs players werent good enough to play SL or they would have already neen there ,not strictly true ,you have late developers ,players who had not been at SL academies ,players that just need full time to truly show their qualities ,there are payers in most Championship teams that could play in the bottom half of SL 

 

A case in point being Chris Hil ,Chris was SL quality 3 years before moving to Warrington ,you dont go Championship to short listed for MOS contender overnight 

 

So any SL coach that takes Scotchys attitude will be in for a shock 

[thundergaz]

a championship club can in a one off game beat an SL club. Nobody discounts it as a possibility. Very unlikely but possible. However they not only have to beat an SL side. It is likely they then need to beat the other 3 championship sides, and even then they are likely to have to play the SL side again on the play off. Please

Yes but where have I once said a champ club would go up? I've never said that because I don't think under this new system a champ club will go up. I was just saying I don't think where FT play FT teams their will be big blow out games that's all. I don't think any team in the middle 8 will win by 50 plus points against any other FT team(not including Fev because they are part time).

[scotchy]

Yes but where have I once said a champ club would go up? I've never said that because I don't think under this new system a champ club will go up. I was just saying I don't think where FT play FT teams their will be big blow out games that's all. I don't think any team in the middle 8 will win by 50 plus points against any other FT team(not including Fev because they are part time).

London and Bradford last year as SL clubs conceded that many points against those sides. I don't think they are better this year. Certainly not hugely better.

I also think very quickly 1 or 2, within 1,2,3 games will be out of it. I think they will see a few points put on them as well.