bowes

Coach
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  1. Not sure Japan owning business here is any better or worse than Germany doing it (providing we keep employment rights)
  2. Yeah. Japan are currently negotiating a trade deal with New Zealand, a non-EU country with less than 1/10 of the population of the UK and (slightly) further away than the UK is. It's nonsense to thing they'll want to punish the UK (currently 6th largest economy) purely for voting to leave an organisation they're not even part of
  3. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/aug/31/theresa-may-secures-japanese-pledge-on-post-brexit-trade-deal
  4. Conspiracy Theories

    If the American government really were working with aliens I think Donald Trump would have told everyone on Twitter by now. I also really can't see countries like Brazil keeping it quiet if they knew
  5. I think you're grossly underestimating the pace at which free trade is progressing amongst many countries. The likes of New Zealand and Chile have signed loads of free trade deals. I don't know what Japan will do but we're the sixth largest world economy and most of the world aren't in the EU so we're clearly not going to be indefinitely punished by the whole world the way you're claiming The much greater difficulty is negotiating with the likes of China, USA, but especially India and Mercosur Japan probably won't copy and paste, but Canada have said they'll do just that so it's not unprecedented. The reality is that Japan is a country that will sign a free trade deal with us, it's too early to know every detail and exact timing
  6. Personally I think we'll get a deal with Japan, but it may or may not take more than two years (if we sign up to TPP, then we'd get a better deal immediately; if we join EFTA and stay in the EEA Japan could quite easily fax us a copy of their deal with the EU to sign; not saying this would happen automatically but it's possible)
  7. It took Switzerland two years to negotiate and covers financial services. Credit where it's due the EU-Japan deal is one of the better things the EU has done, but even if we get the same deal as the EU that's better than staying in the EU as it doesn't require an unnecessary overturning of democracy to achieve
  8. Switzerland signed a free trade deal with Japan before the EU did so yes it definitely is possible. Whether our government is skilled enough to negotiate one is a different question I'm less sure of the answer to, but Brexit definitely is no obstacle to a deal
  9. Yes though even looking at 2030 the balance of the global economy is quite changed. Yes EFTA plus North America would be a lot better than EU membership. Depends a lot on American domestic politics
  10. I agree the EU markets are important but that comment was in the context of joining EFTA which would mean we'd have both the European markets and those of the Pacific Rim region. By 2050 Indonesia will have an economy half the size of that of the entire EU27. Why not start making inroads now if we don't even have to give up single market membership to be able to sign our own trade deals?
  11. The Culture Wars

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-42690207
  12. Yeah I really don't get how people can think the population would accept the overturning of the largest ever democratic mandate the country's ever known purely because there are economic projections showing the economy will be 1-2% smaller in 2030. Aside from the uncertainty of projections, we could easily end up paying much more than that bailing out Spain and Italy if we stay in the EU. Of course if the EU goes through major reform we could justify a second referendum. We're powerless to make this reform as members though especially whilst Macron is still around
  13. The advisory argument is very poor. There may not be a legal consequence but the political backlash would be very severe. You're thinking about this too much from a Remainer perspective and aren't quite grasping other people's perspective. The anger against mainstream parties who overturned a free and fair vote would leave the door open to a populist backlash. Given how little a difference it would make to the economy to join EFTA this really isn't a price worth paying. Think about Catalonia to get a better idea of how well overturning a democratic referendum result goes down
  14. This is the report I was quoting: https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR2200.html
  15. With the three options you highlight it probably is lose-lose but not necessarily with the other options. The FTA with the EU option would see financial services lose out but would likely see (modest) increases in the wages of low earners. On paper your assessment is correct. However, where I differ from you is taking the following into account: 1. The political reality in countries like Austria, Italy, Spain, Poland, Hungary etc 2. The fact that the EU is going to become far more centred around the problematic single currency, which will see us sidelined as non members 3. There would be very severe political consequences of overturning a free and fair democratic vote Taking the above into account plus the ability to free up trade with the rest of the world by leaving the customs union then I think the most positive solution is joining EFTA. If the Trade in Services Agreement comes into action and if the USA elect a more benign government that gives us a reasonable free trade deal then I think the FTA with the EU option could work. I don't think the FTA only with the USA option, the WTO option or the Customs Union only option are worth considering