NRL 2021 - The Run To The Finals

[Farmduck]

I copied this from FoxSports so it doesn't include Round 18 results. I'll edit it later today. I think the cutoff for 8th spot this year might be 26 points. The standard is 28 and 4 teams have already reached that. In theory, every team except Brisbane and Canterbury could still reach 26 but teams 12, 13 and 14 all have tough games this week so they are probably gone next Monday.

1. MELBOURNE STORM (32 points, +434)

Run home:  Cowboys (A), Panthers (H), Sea Eagles (A), Raiders (H), Titans, (A), Eels (H), Sharks (A)

Analysis: In their latest three outings the Storm have scored a collective 154 points, while conceding only 32. A 46-0 rout of the Roosters in Round 16 showed just how hot Melbourne is running at the moment. The Sea Eagles and Panthers pose serious threats on the run home but Nathan Cleary won’t be available for Penrith by that stage, and so we’re backing Craig Bellamy’s men in to get the chocolates in that one. They’re a very real chance of cruising into finals undefeated since Round 3.

Major injuries: Tyson Smoothy (knee, Round 18), Darryn Schonig (knee, Round 18), Harry Grant (hamstring, Round 18-19), Ryan Papenhuyzen (concussion, Round 18-19), Ryley Jacks (concussion, Round 21-23), Max King (Achilles, indefinite), Tom Eisenhuth (elbow, indefinite)

Projected results: WWWWWWW

Predicted finish: 1st (46 points)

 

2. PENRITH PANTHERS (32, +326)

Run home: Broncos (H), Storm (A), Roosters (A), Dragons (A), Rabbitohs (H), Tigers (H), Eels (A)

Analysis: The Panthers looked close to unbeatable until State of Origin rolled around, and suddenly they fell back to the pack with a number of stars missing. They’ve two of their last four, and only scraped home against Parramatta in Round 16. Now, Origin halves Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai are missing, but this time to injury rather than representative duties. Cleary won’t be back until Round 20 or after. If he's not there when they play the Storm in Round 20, Penrith’s job becomes immeasurably harder. Once they get their full team back on the paddock, though, the Panthers are well and truly in the premiership race.

Major injuries: Jarome Luai (knee, Round 18-19),  Paul Momirovski (hip, Round 18), Robert Jennings (foot, Round 18), Nathan Cleary (shoulder, Round 20-22)

Projected results: WLWWWWW

Predicted finish: 2nd (44 points)

 

3. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (30, +157)

Run home: Warriors (H), Dragons (A), Eels (A), Titans (H), Panthers (A), Roosters (A), Dragons (H)

Analysis: The Bunnies have a fairly favourable run home, although the Eels, Panthers, and Roosters all present challenges for Wayne Bennett’s side. We’re backing the Eels and Panthers to roll the Rabbitohs, but a busted Chooks outfit should be beaten if South Sydney considers itself a finals threat. Tevita Tatola will be a welcome addition at the back end of the season.

Major injuries: Jaxson Paulo (wrist, Round 17), Tevita Tatola (knee, Round 23-25), Brock Gardner (Achilles, indefinite)

Projected results: WWLWLWW

Predicted finish: 3rd (40 points)

 

4. PARRAMATTA EELS (28, +219)

Run home: Raiders (H), Roosters (A), Rabbitohs (H), Sea Eagles (A), Cowboys (H), Storm (A), Panthers (H),

Analysis: Parramatta’s form against the competition’s top sides is mixed. The Eels beat the Storm and Roosters earlier in the year, but have since lost to Manly and South Sydney, while letting it slip in a one-point loss to Penrith last week. The fact the Eels could not ice the game against the Panthers - who were missing Nathan Cleary - is concerning. They will be tested on the run home by the Roosters, Rabbitohs, Sea Eagles, Storm, and Panthers, with arguably the toughest draw in the competition. They could easily slip outside the top four.

Major injuries: Nathaniel Roache (knee, indefinite), Wiremu Greig (ankle, indefinite)

Projected results: WWLWLL

Predicted finish: 4th (36 points)

 

5. ROOSTERS (24, +98)

Run home: Knights (H), Eels (H), Panthers (H), Broncos (A), Dragons (A), Rabbitohs (H), Raiders (A)

Analysis: It appears to be an uphill battle for the Bondi boys this year, with Luke Keary’s knee injury and three players forced into premature retirement seemingly ending any hope they had of a premiership. It’s a fairly light run home for the Chooks, although we’re backing the Panthers, Eels, and Bunnies to beat them. The Knights will be a solid test, too. In their past three outings the Roosters have snuck home in a one-point win over the Titans, then lost badly to the Panthers and Storm. Don’t be surprised if they drop a game or two to teams below them on the ladder before the season’s done.

Major injuries: Luke Keary (knee, season), Lindsay Collins (knee, season)

Projected results: WWLLWWLW

Predicted finish: 6th (32 points)

 

6. MANLY SEA EAGLES (22, +131)

Run home:  Tigers (H), Sharks (A), Storm (H), Eels (H), Raiders (A), Bulldogs (H), Cowboys (A)

Analysis: Manly is absolutely flying up the NRL ladder thanks to the injury return and subsequent form of superstar fullback Tom Trbojevic. Such is their form of late, we’re tipping the Sea Eagles to lose only one more game on the run home... pending the fitness of the man in the No.1 jumper. They hit a speed bump in Round 17 when losing to Canberra in an upset, but without their Origin halfback and fullback. In their three outings prior to that they scored 50 points (vs Cowboys), 56 (Titans), and 66 (Bulldogs). The Storm and Eels will present an intriguing challenge for this Manly side but other than that the Sea Eagles have a cruisy run into finals.

Major injuries: Jake Trbojevic (hip, Round 18), Zac Saddler (cheek, Round 21-22), Josh Aloiai (wrist, Round 22), Curtis Sironen (hamstring/knee, indefinite), Andrew Davey (knee, season), Morgan Boyle (shoulder, season), Manase Fainu (stood down, indefinite)

Projected results: WWLWWWW

Predicted finish: 5th (34 points)

 

7. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (18, -24)

Run home: Titans (H), Rabbitohs (H), Raiders (A), Panthers (H), Roosters (H), Cowboys (H), Rabbitohs (A)

Analysis: It’s somewhat surprising to find the Dragons as high on the NRL ladder as they are currently. They had a hot start to the season, only to fall off a cliff. Now there’s reports of serious fractures among the playing group, following Paul Vaughan’s now-infamous house party which saw him immediately sacked and 11 teammates sanctioned. All those players will be suspended for one game, to be spread across the coming month. The Dragons are looking to loan players from the Warriors just to be able to be competitive for the remainder of the season. The Titans and Raiders look their best chance to score a win on the run home, but there’s so much off-field drama at the club we’re resigning them to eight losses straight after the bye.

Major injuries: Max Feagai (concussion, Round 18), Cameron McInnes (knee, season)

Projected results: LLLLLLL

Predicted finish: 11th (18 points)

 

8. CRONULLA SHARKS (16, -60)

Run home: Bulldogs (A), Sea Eagles (H), Warriors (A), Knights (H), Tigers (A), Broncos (H), Storm (H)

Analysis: Cronulla’s form has been stead of late, despite the untimely axing of coach John Morris earlier in the season. They beat the Dragons, Titans, Panthers, and Cowboys on the trot before losing to the Broncos in Round 16, and bouncing back with a win over the Warriors. Matt Moylan withdrew from the Broncos game with a calf injury in the warm-up, but before that he and Shaun Johnson were performing well together in the halves. They have every excuse not to be playing well but the Sharks are sure to shock a few more teams on the run home. There’s also some lineball games against the Warriors and Raiders, which we’re backing the Sharks to win. If they can knock off those teams, a finals berth is well and truly within reach.

Major injuries: Matt Moylan (calf, TBC), Jackson Ferris (foot, Round 18), Royce Hunt (knee, Round 18), Franklin Pele (foot, Round 25-finals), Wade Graham (concussion, indefinite)

Projected results: WLWLWWL

Predicted finish: 8th (26 points)

 

9. CANBERRA RAIDERS (16, -74)

Run home: Eels (A), Knights (A), Dragons (H), Storm (A), Sea Eagles (H), Warriors (A), Roosters (H)

Analysis: An upset victory over Manly in Round 17 gives Canberra a little hope on the run home. The Sea Eagles were missing Tom Trbojevic and Daly Cherry-Evans, but the Raiders were missing their own Origin players in Jack Wighton and Josh Papalii, to be fair. A win’s a win and Ricky Stuart will take anything he can at the moment. Prior to that victory they had won two of 11 games on the trot. It doesn’t get much easier, with some strong teams coming up in the draw. Canberra should beat the Dragons, and the Warriors is the other game that looks winnable.

Major injuries: Elliott Whitehead (facial cut/shoulder, Round 18), Corey Horsburgh (wrist, Round 19-20), Bailey Simonsson (toe, Round 21-23), Curtis Scott (stood down, indefinite), Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (neck, season)

Projected results: LLWLLLL

Predicted finish: 13th (16 points)

 

10. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (16, -137)

Run home: Storm (A), Roosters (A), Raiders (H), Broncos (H), Sharks (A), Bulldogs (A), Titans (H), Broncos (A)

Analysis: Newcastle had a rough start to the year but things are looking bright in the Hunter. The Knights finally have their best players back from respective injuries, bar Bradman Best and Edrick Lee, who still appear some way off. After the bye they run into the Storm - who they’ll lose to - and the Roosters, who will be an interesting challenge. After that the Knights have a favourable run, with the Broncos twice among the Raiders, Sharks, and Titans. If they can remain injury free for the coming two months, expect the Knights to make a serious run at finals.

Major injuries: Daniel Saifiti (rib, Round 18-19),  Bradman Best (ankle, Round 24), Edrick Lee (foot, indefinite), Pasami Saulo (leg, indefinite)

Projected results: LLWWWWWW

Predicted finish: 7th (28 points)

 

11. GOLD COAST TITANS (14, -74)

Run home: Dragons (A), Bulldogs (A), Cowboys (H), Rabbitohs (A), Storm (H), Knights (A), Warriors (H)

Analysis: The Titans were tipped to be a finals force this year after the acquisitions of David Fifita and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui. Instead they will battle to finish inside the top eight. Some serious defensive deficiencies have cost them wins and it’s the reason they won’t compete with the competition’s top teams. They should beat the likes of the Dragons and Bulldogs, but games against the Cowboys, Knights, and Warriors will tell the tale of their season. If Gold Coast can roll even two of those three opponents, then finals aren’t off the table completely just yet.

Major injuries: Greg Marzhew (elbow, Round 19-20)

Projected results: WWWLLLW

Predicted finish: 9th (22 points)

 

12. WESTS TIGERS (14, -130)

Run home: Sea Eagles (A), Warriors (H), Bulldogs (A), Cowboys (A), Sharks (H), Panthers (A), Bulldogs (H)

Analysis: There’s no smart punter in the universe who could put their hard-earned on the Wests Tigers in confidence. They might show up on game day or they might not, there’s no telling what fans will get from week to week. We’re backing a resurgent Broncos to get the job done over Michael Maguire’s men on the run home. We’re tipping the Tigers to roll the Bulldogs in their two meetings but even that’s a risky tip.

Major injuries: Russell Packer (knee, indefinite), AJ Keapoa (knee, season)

Projected results: LLWLLLW

Predicted finish:

 

 

13. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (14, -203)

Run home: Storm (H), Broncos (A), Titans (A), Tigers (H), Eels (A), Dragons (A), Sea Eagles (H)

Analysis: North Queensland has dropped four games on the trot. Their saving grace could be the entire competition relocating to Queensland for the coming month due to Sydney’s Covid outbreak. We’ll back the Cowboys in to beat the Broncos, Tigers, and Dragons, but they’ll be long odds against the top-eight teams on the run home.

Major injuries: Reuben Cotter (foot, Round 19-20), Ben Hampton (pectoral, Round 19-21)

Projected results: LWLWLWL

Predicted finish: 10th (20 points)

 

14. WARRIORS (12, -93)

Run home:  Rabbitohs (A), Tigers (A), Sharks (H), Bulldogs (H), Broncos (A), Raiders (H), Titans (A)

Analysis: Being extremely generous, Warriors could win 7 games, finish on 26 points in a jam with one or two other clubs. They have a better +/- than most bottom-half teams but that means nothing as soon as they lose 1 game.

 

15. BRISBANE BRONCOS (10, -242)

Run home: Panthers (A), Cowboys (H), Knights (A), Roosters (H), Warriors (H), Sharks (A), Knights H)

Analysis: No analysis needed. They are probably safe from the Wooden Spoon only because Canterbury exist.

Predicted finish: 15th (12 points)

 

16. CANTERBURY BULLDOGS (6, -302)

Run home: Rabbitohs (A), Sharks (H), Titans (H), Tigers (H), Warriors (A), Knights (H), Sea Eagles (A), Tigers (A)

Analysis: Making their first and only appearance on this thread.

Predicted finish: 16th (6 points)

[Spotty Herbert]

I agree with the top 6, but I reckon Sharks could finish 7th and the Knights 8th as they have a relatively easy run in. I cant see the Dragons recovering from all the suspensions they still have to factor in and the general chaos they face. I have the Raiders and Titans in 9th and 10th with the Dragons 11th, the rest nowhere. Sneaking suspicion that the Raiders experience may just get them in the 8 in front of the Knights.

[Farmduck]

I might have to revise my thinking here about the cutoff for 8th spot. In the general pack from about 7th to 13th, I can't see most of those teams reaching 28 points, or in most cases, even 26. Maybe 24 will be enough to snag 8th. I expect Newcastle, Cows, Wests and Warriors to all lose this weekend so that should help the Titans and Cronulla.

[George Watt]

On 19/07/2021 at 12:48, Farmduck said:

I copied this from FoxSports so it doesn't include Round 18 results. I'll edit it later today. I think the cutoff for 8th spot this year might be 26 points. The standard is 28 and 4 teams have already reached that. In theory, every team except Brisbane and Canterbury could still reach 26 but teams 12, 13 and 14 all have tough games this week so they are probably gone next Monday.

1. MELBOURNE STORM (32 points, +434)

Run home:  Cowboys (A), Panthers (H), Sea Eagles (A), Raiders (H), Titans, (A), Eels (H), Sharks (A)

Analysis: In their latest three outings the Storm have scored a collective 154 points, while conceding only 32. A 46-0 rout of the Roosters in Round 16 showed just how hot Melbourne is running at the moment. The Sea Eagles and Panthers pose serious threats on the run home but Nathan Cleary won’t be available for Penrith by that stage, and so we’re backing Craig Bellamy’s men in to get the chocolates in that one. They’re a very real chance of cruising into finals undefeated since Round 3.

Major injuries: Tyson Smoothy (knee, Round 18), Darryn Schonig (knee, Round 18), Harry Grant (hamstring, Round 18-19), Ryan Papenhuyzen (concussion, Round 18-19), Ryley Jacks (concussion, Round 21-23), Max King (Achilles, indefinite), Tom Eisenhuth (elbow, indefinite)

Projected results: WWWWWWW

Predicted finish: 1st (46 points)

 

2. PENRITH PANTHERS (32, +326)

Run home: Broncos (H), Storm (A), Roosters (A), Dragons (A), Rabbitohs (H), Tigers (H), Eels (A)

Analysis: The Panthers looked close to unbeatable until State of Origin rolled around, and suddenly they fell back to the pack with a number of stars missing. They’ve two of their last four, and only scraped home against Parramatta in Round 16. Now, Origin halves Nathan Cleary and Jarome Luai are missing, but this time to injury rather than representative duties. Cleary won’t be back until Round 20 or after. If he's not there when they play the Storm in Round 20, Penrith’s job becomes immeasurably harder. Once they get their full team back on the paddock, though, the Panthers are well and truly in the premiership race.

Major injuries: Jarome Luai (knee, Round 18-19),  Paul Momirovski (hip, Round 18), Robert Jennings (foot, Round 18), Nathan Cleary (shoulder, Round 20-22)

Projected results: WLWWWWW

Predicted finish: 2nd (44 points)

 

3. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (30, +157)

Run home: Warriors (H), Dragons (A), Eels (A), Titans (H), Panthers (A), Roosters (A), Dragons (H)

Analysis: The Bunnies have a fairly favourable run home, although the Eels, Panthers, and Roosters all present challenges for Wayne Bennett’s side. We’re backing the Eels and Panthers to roll the Rabbitohs, but a busted Chooks outfit should be beaten if South Sydney considers itself a finals threat. Tevita Tatola will be a welcome addition at the back end of the season.

Major injuries: Jaxson Paulo (wrist, Round 17), Tevita Tatola (knee, Round 23-25), Brock Gardner (Achilles, indefinite)

Projected results: WWLWLWW

Predicted finish: 3rd (40 points)

 

4. PARRAMATTA EELS (28, +219)

Run home: Raiders (H), Roosters (A), Rabbitohs (H), Sea Eagles (A), Cowboys (H), Storm (A), Panthers (H),

Analysis: Parramatta’s form against the competition’s top sides is mixed. The Eels beat the Storm and Roosters earlier in the year, but have since lost to Manly and South Sydney, while letting it slip in a one-point loss to Penrith last week. The fact the Eels could not ice the game against the Panthers - who were missing Nathan Cleary - is concerning. They will be tested on the run home by the Roosters, Rabbitohs, Sea Eagles, Storm, and Panthers, with arguably the toughest draw in the competition. They could easily slip outside the top four.

Major injuries: Nathaniel Roache (knee, indefinite), Wiremu Greig (ankle, indefinite)

Projected results: WWLWLL

Predicted finish: 4th (36 points)

 

5. ROOSTERS (24, +98)

Run home: Knights (H), Eels (H), Panthers (H), Broncos (A), Dragons (A), Rabbitohs (H), Raiders (A)

Analysis: It appears to be an uphill battle for the Bondi boys this year, with Luke Keary’s knee injury and three players forced into premature retirement seemingly ending any hope they had of a premiership. It’s a fairly light run home for the Chooks, although we’re backing the Panthers, Eels, and Bunnies to beat them. The Knights will be a solid test, too. In their past three outings the Roosters have snuck home in a one-point win over the Titans, then lost badly to the Panthers and Storm. Don’t be surprised if they drop a game or two to teams below them on the ladder before the season’s done.

Major injuries: Luke Keary (knee, season), Lindsay Collins (knee, season)

Projected results: WWLLWWLW

Predicted finish: 6th (32 points)

 

6. MANLY SEA EAGLES (22, +131)

Run home:  Tigers (H), Sharks (A), Storm (H), Eels (H), Raiders (A), Bulldogs (H), Cowboys (A)

Analysis: Manly is absolutely flying up the NRL ladder thanks to the injury return and subsequent form of superstar fullback Tom Trbojevic. Such is their form of late, we’re tipping the Sea Eagles to lose only one more game on the run home... pending the fitness of the man in the No.1 jumper. They hit a speed bump in Round 17 when losing to Canberra in an upset, but without their Origin halfback and fullback. In their three outings prior to that they scored 50 points (vs Cowboys), 56 (Titans), and 66 (Bulldogs). The Storm and Eels will present an intriguing challenge for this Manly side but other than that the Sea Eagles have a cruisy run into finals.

Major injuries: Jake Trbojevic (hip, Round 18), Zac Saddler (cheek, Round 21-22), Josh Aloiai (wrist, Round 22), Curtis Sironen (hamstring/knee, indefinite), Andrew Davey (knee, season), Morgan Boyle (shoulder, season), Manase Fainu (stood down, indefinite)

Projected results: WWLWWWW

Predicted finish: 5th (34 points)

 

7. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (18, -24)

Run home: Titans (H), Rabbitohs (H), Raiders (A), Panthers (H), Roosters (H), Cowboys (H), Rabbitohs (A)

Analysis: It’s somewhat surprising to find the Dragons as high on the NRL ladder as they are currently. They had a hot start to the season, only to fall off a cliff. Now there’s reports of serious fractures among the playing group, following Paul Vaughan’s now-infamous house party which saw him immediately sacked and 11 teammates sanctioned. All those players will be suspended for one game, to be spread across the coming month. The Dragons are looking to loan players from the Warriors just to be able to be competitive for the remainder of the season. The Titans and Raiders look their best chance to score a win on the run home, but there’s so much off-field drama at the club we’re resigning them to eight losses straight after the bye.

Major injuries: Max Feagai (concussion, Round 18), Cameron McInnes (knee, season)

Projected results: LLLLLLL

Predicted finish: 11th (18 points)

 

8. CRONULLA SHARKS (16, -60)

Run home: Bulldogs (A), Sea Eagles (H), Warriors (A), Knights (H), Tigers (A), Broncos (H), Storm (H)

Analysis: Cronulla’s form has been stead of late, despite the untimely axing of coach John Morris earlier in the season. They beat the Dragons, Titans, Panthers, and Cowboys on the trot before losing to the Broncos in Round 16, and bouncing back with a win over the Warriors. Matt Moylan withdrew from the Broncos game with a calf injury in the warm-up, but before that he and Shaun Johnson were performing well together in the halves. They have every excuse not to be playing well but the Sharks are sure to shock a few more teams on the run home. There’s also some lineball games against the Warriors and Raiders, which we’re backing the Sharks to win. If they can knock off those teams, a finals berth is well and truly within reach.

Major injuries: Matt Moylan (calf, TBC), Jackson Ferris (foot, Round 18), Royce Hunt (knee, Round 18), Franklin Pele (foot, Round 25-finals), Wade Graham (concussion, indefinite)

Projected results: WLWLWWL

Predicted finish: 8th (26 points)

 

9. CANBERRA RAIDERS (16, -74)

Run home: Eels (A), Knights (A), Dragons (H), Storm (A), Sea Eagles (H), Warriors (A), Roosters (H)

Analysis: An upset victory over Manly in Round 17 gives Canberra a little hope on the run home. The Sea Eagles were missing Tom Trbojevic and Daly Cherry-Evans, but the Raiders were missing their own Origin players in Jack Wighton and Josh Papalii, to be fair. A win’s a win and Ricky Stuart will take anything he can at the moment. Prior to that victory they had won two of 11 games on the trot. It doesn’t get much easier, with some strong teams coming up in the draw. Canberra should beat the Dragons, and the Warriors is the other game that looks winnable.

Major injuries: Elliott Whitehead (facial cut/shoulder, Round 18), Corey Horsburgh (wrist, Round 19-20), Bailey Simonsson (toe, Round 21-23), Curtis Scott (stood down, indefinite), Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (neck, season)

Projected results: LLWLLLL

Predicted finish: 13th (16 points)

 

10. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (16, -137)

Run home: Storm (A), Roosters (A), Raiders (H), Broncos (H), Sharks (A), Bulldogs (A), Titans (H), Broncos (A)

Analysis: Newcastle had a rough start to the year but things are looking bright in the Hunter. The Knights finally have their best players back from respective injuries, bar Bradman Best and Edrick Lee, who still appear some way off. After the bye they run into the Storm - who they’ll lose to - and the Roosters, who will be an interesting challenge. After that the Knights have a favourable run, with the Broncos twice among the Raiders, Sharks, and Titans. If they can remain injury free for the coming two months, expect the Knights to make a serious run at finals.

Major injuries: Daniel Saifiti (rib, Round 18-19),  Bradman Best (ankle, Round 24), Edrick Lee (foot, indefinite), Pasami Saulo (leg, indefinite)

Projected results: LLWWWWWW

Predicted finish: 7th (28 points)

 

11. GOLD COAST TITANS (14, -74)

Run home: Dragons (A), Bulldogs (A), Cowboys (H), Rabbitohs (A), Storm (H), Knights (A), Warriors (H)

Analysis: The Titans were tipped to be a finals force this year after the acquisitions of David Fifita and Tino Fa’asuamaleaui. Instead they will battle to finish inside the top eight. Some serious defensive deficiencies have cost them wins and it’s the reason they won’t compete with the competition’s top teams. They should beat the likes of the Dragons and Bulldogs, but games against the Cowboys, Knights, and Warriors will tell the tale of their season. If Gold Coast can roll even two of those three opponents, then finals aren’t off the table completely just yet.

Major injuries: Greg Marzhew (elbow, Round 19-20)

Projected results: WWWLLLW

Predicted finish: 9th (22 points)

 

12. WESTS TIGERS (14, -130)

Run home: Sea Eagles (A), Warriors (H), Bulldogs (A), Cowboys (A), Sharks (H), Panthers (A), Bulldogs (H)

Analysis: There’s no smart punter in the universe who could put their hard-earned on the Wests Tigers in confidence. They might show up on game day or they might not, there’s no telling what fans will get from week to week. We’re backing a resurgent Broncos to get the job done over Michael Maguire’s men on the run home. We’re tipping the Tigers to roll the Bulldogs in their two meetings but even that’s a risky tip.

Major injuries: Russell Packer (knee, indefinite), AJ Keapoa (knee, season)

Projected results: LLWLLLW

Predicted finish:

 

 

13. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (14, -203)

Run home: Storm (H), Broncos (A), Titans (A), Tigers (H), Eels (A), Dragons (A), Sea Eagles (H)

Analysis: North Queensland has dropped four games on the trot. Their saving grace could be the entire competition relocating to Queensland for the coming month due to Sydney’s Covid outbreak. We’ll back the Cowboys in to beat the Broncos, Tigers, and Dragons, but they’ll be long odds against the top-eight teams on the run home.

Major injuries: Reuben Cotter (foot, Round 19-20), Ben Hampton (pectoral, Round 19-21)

Projected results: LWLWLWL

Predicted finish: 10th (20 points)

 

14. WARRIORS (12, -93)

Run home:  Rabbitohs (A), Tigers (A), Sharks (H), Bulldogs (H), Broncos (A), Raiders (H), Titans (A)

Analysis: Being extremely generous, Warriors could win 7 games, finish on 26 points in a jam with one or two other clubs. They have a better +/- than most bottom-half teams but that means nothing as soon as they lose 1 game.

 

15. BRISBANE BRONCOS (10, -242)

Run home: Panthers (A), Cowboys (H), Knights (A), Roosters (H), Warriors (H), Sharks (A), Knights H)

Analysis: No analysis needed. They are probably safe from the Wooden Spoon only because Canterbury exist.

Predicted finish: 15th (12 points)

 

16. CANTERBURY BULLDOGS (6, -302)

Run home: Rabbitohs (A), Sharks (H), Titans (H), Tigers (H), Warriors (A), Knights (H), Sea Eagles (A), Tigers (A)

Analysis: Making their first and only appearance on this thread.

Predicted finish: 16th (6 points)

Well done for the work put into that list.

One observation from Parramatta. 7 matches to play but only 6 W/L projected results. Maybe missed out Roosters match which Parra are projected to lose so projected results should read WLWLWLL.

However, under the Roosters although it projects  a win, in the text before it says they will lose to Parramatta! Something odd there.

[Farmduck]

Just now, George Watt said:

Well done for the work put into that list.

One observation from Parramatta. 7 matches to play but only 6 W/L projected results. Maybe missed out Roosters match which Parra are projected to lose so projected results should read WLWLWLL.

However, under the Roosters although it projects  a win, in the text before it says they will lose to Parramatta! Something odd there.

I didn't do the analysis for teams above the bottom 3. I've done these in previous years and the main object with the first post is just to get the template up there.

I think this will be an easy thread this year. I think 1 & 2 are set, 3 & 4 are set with only Manly capable of upsetting those 2. I think the Raiders are the only outsiders capable of getting into the 8, based mainly on the quality of some of their individuals.

I have some doubts about Parra. They'll definitely make the finals but their only 40-point scores have been against the Broncos, Wests and Knights and they were beaten by Souths, Panthers and Manly. They only have one more game against a team outside the top 6 after they play Canberra this week.

St George have a tough run home and nobody thinks they stay in the top 8. Their biggest impact could be wins against Cows and Titans which will kill off those 2 for the year. In the group from team 7 - 13 I couldn't confidently tip any of them to win 5/7.

[Graham]

I think that’s a more likely spot for Wests to finish. I believe they were predicted to finish 14th in the original article?

[Spotty Herbert]

6 hours ago, Farmduck said:

I might have to revise my thinking here about the cutoff for 8th spot. In the general pack from about 7th to 13th, I can't see most of those teams reaching 28 points, or in most cases, even 26. Maybe 24 will be enough to snag 8th. I expect Newcastle, Cows, Wests and Warriors to all lose this weekend so that should help the Titans and Cronulla.

I think 8th may only need 24 points this year, but look at how far down the table I am in the tipping competition to judge whether I have a clue what I am talking about.

[The Rocket]

Good thread, great to see it all laid out.

I think the Sharks are the only genuine top eight side not yet in the top 8, I expect them to finish 7th but unfortunately that means they will meet either the Roosters or Manly. Which one is crucial, Roosters are vulnerable, Manly could go on a run in the finals, they`re that sort of club, I definitely cannot see them getting beat the first week and that will be goodnight Sharks.

Eight spot doesn`t really matter, the only side that could fill that spot and bother anyone might be the Raiders, but they`ve got a horror run in so it`s unlikely they`ll make it.

The Tigers have a fairly good run if they can get a bit of consistency, without putting a lot of thought into it and replacing that with my heart instead I`ll go for the Tigers to make eighth spot for the first time in 8 ? years.

I picked the Tigers to have a big year this year, I saw one P. V`landy`s at the season launch tipping them as well, I suppose we`ll see if `great minds think alike or fools never differ`. Don`t say a thing !!

 

 

[Spotty Herbert]

8 hours ago, The Rocket said:

Good thread, great to see it all laid out.

I think the Sharks are the only genuine top eight side not yet in the top 8, I expect them to finish 7th but unfortunately that means they will meet either the Roosters or Manly. Which one is crucial, Roosters are vulnerable, Manly could go on a run in the finals, they`re that sort of club, I definitely cannot see them getting beat the first week and that will be goodnight Sharks.

Eight spot doesn`t really matter, the only side that could fill that spot and bother anyone might be the Raiders, but they`ve got a horror run in so it`s unlikely they`ll make it.

The Tigers have a fairly good run if they can get a bit of consistency, without putting a lot of thought into it and replacing that with my heart instead I`ll go for the Tigers to make eighth spot for the first time in 8 ? years.

I picked the Tigers to have a big year this year, I saw one P. V`landy`s at the season launch tipping them as well, I suppose we`ll see if `great minds think alike or fools never differ`. Don`t say a thing !!

 

 

Can the Tigers win 5 out of their last 7 (including games with Penrith and Manly)? They would need to do that to get to 24 points and I don't think they are consistent enough. coached well enough or have the playing roster to do that. 

[The Rocket]

2 hours ago, Spotty Herbert said:

Can the Tigers win 5 out of their last 7 (including games with Penrith and Manly)? They would need to do that to get to 24 points and I don't think they are consistent enough. coached well enough or have the playing roster to do that. 

Yeah as I said I didn`t put a lot of thought into 8th spot and I didn`t see the Sharks in the Tigers run home either, I thought they might have won all their remaining games except the two that you mentioned. You could probably pencil in another loss with that Sharks match as well. Not looking good. I`ll stick with them any way purely because I want them to do well, as I said it`s pretty slim pickings for 8th spot anyway.

 

[Farmduck]

1. MELBOURNE STORM (34 points, +438)

Run home:  Panthers (H), Sea Eagles (A), Raiders (H), Titans, (A), Eels (H), Sharks (A)

Analysis: Whoever wins the Storm/Panthers game this week should win the Minor Premiership. I’ll wait until the Penrith team is announced before guessing who that will be. I think both teams can win their last 5 games so this is the big one.

Major injuries: Tyson Smoothy (knee, Round 18), Darryn Schonig (knee, Round 18), Harry Grant (hamstring, Round 18-19), Ryley Jacks (concussion, Round 21-23), Max King (Achilles, indefinite), Tom Eisenhuth (elbow, indefinite)

Projected results: WWWWWW

Predicted finish: 1st (46 points)

 

2. PENRITH PANTHERS (34, +332)

Run home: Storm (A), Roosters (A), Dragons (A), Rabbitohs (H), Tigers (H), Eels (A)

Analysis: Still a bit short on troops with Yeo, Cleary, Koroisau and Fisher Harris probably missing this week, I expect the Panthers to lose to the Storm then finish off the season with a 5-game winning streak.

Major injuries:  Paul Momirovski (hip, Round 18), Robert Jennings (foot, Round 18), Nathan Cleary (shoulder, Round 20-22)

Projected results: LWWWWW

Predicted finish: 2nd (44 points)

 

3. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (32, +195)

Run home: Dragons (A), Eels (A), Titans (H), Panthers (A), Roosters (A), Dragons (H)

Analysis: The Bunnies have a fairly favourable run home, and I think they will win all except the Panthers game. Comparing the two schedules – Souths and Eels – I don’t see the Eels catching them.

Major injuries: Tevita Tatola (knee, Round 23-25), Brock Gardner (Achilles, indefinite)

Projected results: WWWLWW

Predicted finish: 3rd (42 points)

 

4. PARRAMATTA EELS (28, +217)

Run home: Roosters (A), Rabbitohs (H), Sea Eagles (A), Cowboys (H), Storm (A), Panthers (H),

Analysis: Parramatta’s form against the competition’s top sides is mixed. I only expect them to win 2 more games but their +/- should stop them from dropping down the ladder. The Roosters are paddling flat out just to stay still and Manly, IMO, will only finish on 32 points with an inferior +/-

Major injuries: Nathaniel Roache (knee, indefinite), Wiremu Greig (ankle, indefinite)

Projected results: WLLWLL

Predicted finish: 5th (32 points)

 

5. ROOSTERS (26, +11

Run home: Eels (H), Panthers (H), Broncos (A), Dragons (A), Rabbitohs (H), Raiders (A)

Analysis: The Chooks have done enough to save a finals berth. They should win 3 to ensure at least 5^th and if they could snag an unexpected win – Eels, maybe – they could even reach 4^th. I’m not optimistic about 4^th but they can’t drop any further than 6^th because they have a safe gap.

Major injuries: Luke Keary (knee, season), Lindsay Collins (knee, season)

Projected results: LLWWLW

Predicted finish: 6th (32 points)

 

6. MANLY SEA EAGLES (24, +151)

Run home:  Sharks (A), Storm (H), Eels (H), Raiders (A), Bulldogs (H), Cowboys (A)

Analysis:

Major injuries: Zac Saddler (cheek, Round 21-22),  Curtis Sironen (hamstring/knee, indefinite), Andrew Davey (knee, season), Morgan Boyle (shoulder, season), Manase Fainu (stood down, indefinite)

Projected results: WLWWWW

Predicted finish: 4th (34 points)

 

7. CRONULLA SHARKS (18, -40)

Run home:Sea Eagles (H), Warriors (A), Knights (H), Tigers (A), Broncos (H), Storm (H)

Analysis: I could see 4 more wins for the Fish, assuming they will lose to the Storm and Manly. The Knights and Warriors games could be toss-ups. Warriors have lost 5 games this year by 6 points or less so beating Cronulla isn’t completely out of the question. Knights and Broncos beat Cronulla earlier this year and I don’t think the Shire team has improved that much. I think they’ll finish 7^th mainly because there’s no-one else to knock them lower. Does anyone believe the Knights are going on a 6-game winning streak? The Green Machine would have to beat Storm and Manly to overtake Cronulla.

Major injuries: Matt Moylan (calf, TBC), Jackson Ferris (foot, Round 18), Franklin Pele (foot, Round 25-finals), Wade Graham (concussion, indefinite) Shaun Johnson (not confirmed yet)

Projected results: LWWWWL

Predicted finish: 7th (26 points)

 

8. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (18, -24)

Run home: Rabbitohs (H), Raiders (A), Panthers (H), Roosters (H), Cowboys (H), Rabbitohs (A)

Analysis: The Dragons might have a full squad in time for the Roosters and Cows games and maybe, just maybe, the Bunnies might rest some players in the final round so, with completely unjustified optimism, you could think they might finish on 24 points. This would probably put them 9^th. More realistically, they only beat the Cows and finish 12^th.

Major injuries: Max Feagai (concussion, Round 18), Cameron McInnes (knee, season)

Projected results: LLLLWL

Predicted finish: 12th (20 points)

 

9. CANBERRA RAIDERS (18, -72)

Run home: Knights (A), Dragons (H), Storm (A), Sea Eagles (H), Warriors (A), Roosters (H)

Analysis: As I said above, they would have to beat Manly and Storm to overtake the Sharks into 7^th spot so their best hope is to beat the Knights into 8^th on 26 points with a better +/-

Their worst? Should beat Dragons and Warriors so shouldn’t fall lower than 10^th.

Major injuries: Elliott Whitehead (facial cut/shoulder, Round 18), Corey Horsburgh (wrist, Round 19-20), Bailey Simonsson (toe, Round 21-23), Curtis Scott (stood down, indefinite), Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (neck, season)

Projected results: WWLLWW

Predicted finish: 8th (26 points)

 

10. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (16, -137)

Run home: Raiders (H), Broncos (H), Sharks (A), Bulldogs (A), Titans (H), Broncos (A)

Analysis: I think they'll beat everyone except the Raiders and Sharks. They have Pearce and Klemmer coming back soon although Ponga may lose some time with a sternum problem.

Major injuries: Bradman Best (ankle, Round 24), Edrick Lee (foot, indefinite), Pasami Saulo (leg, indefinite)

Projected results: LWLWWW

Predicted finish: 9th (24 points)

 

11. GOLD COAST TITANS (16, -52)

Run home: Bulldogs (A), Cowboys (H), Rabbitohs (A), Storm (H), Knights (A), Warriors (H)

Analysis: The Titans’ longest winning streak this year was 2 games. They might string together 3 in the next couple of weeks but too little, too late. If you look at their season you would find it hard to believe it was the same players out there through most of the year. They lost to the Broncos but then a couple of weeks later they kept the Storm to 20 while scoring 14 themselves.

Major injuries:

Projected results: WWLLLW

Predicted finish: 10th (22 points)

 

12. WESTS TIGERS (14, -120)

Run home: Warriors (H), Bulldogs (A), Cowboys (A), Sharks (H), Panthers (A), Bulldogs (H)

Analysis: I can see 4 possible wins but I’m not holding my breath. Was this another disappointing year? Well, looking at our squad I would have to say predictable, rather than disappointing.

Major injuries: Russell Packer (knee, indefinite), AJ Keapoa (knee, season)

Projected results: WWWLLW

Predicted finish: 11^th (22 points)

 

13. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (14, -203)

Run home: Broncos (A), Titans (A), Tigers (H), Eels (A), Dragons (A), Sea Eagles (H)

Analysis: North Queensland has dropped five games on the trot. They should beat the Broncos and be 50-50 chances against Tigers and Dragons. I’d tip the Titans to beat them and Eels and Manly to thump them.

Major injuries: Reuben Cotter (foot, Round 19-20), Ben Hampton (pectoral, Round 19-21)

Projected results: WLLLWL

Predicted finish: 13th (18 points)

 

14. WARRIORS (12, -93)

Run home:  Tigers (A), Sharks (H), Bulldogs (H), Broncos (A), Raiders (H), Titans (A)

Analysis: With RTS going home the Warriors may throw the structure out the window and just throw the ball around. I think they’ll get 2 more wins and a playing a fast game of touch might see them outscore a couple more opponents but it’s usually the Warriors who run out of gas first.

They should kick themselves for this season. They’ve had 5 losses by 6 or less. They could so easily have been sitting 7^th right now.

Finish: 14^th (16 points)

[Graham]

I think this is a good way to picture the possible outcomes with six rounds still to play. It is from the NRL's own website.

[Farmduck]

Yes but I don't have their art department or budget. I also work on a "4 Ifs" system at this stage of the year. When a team needs 4 "If X beats Y and A beats C by more than 20 ....."  then I assume it won't happen.

Take their suggestion that Titans could finish 5th. They certainly could if:

- They win all their remaining games, AND

- they win each game by an average of 15 points, AND

- the Chooks go winless for the rest of the year, AND

- they lose every game by an average of 15 points, AND

- Manly go winless for the rest of the year, AND

- Those last 2 "ifs" would include the Dogs beating Manly, and Dragons AND Broncos both beating the Roosters.

 

[Graham]

18 hours ago, Farmduck said:

Yes but I don't have their art department or budget. I also work on a "4 Ifs" system at this stage of the year. When a team needs 4 "If X beats Y and A beats C by more than 20 ....."  then I assume it won't happen.

Take their suggestion that Titans could finish 5th. They certainly could if:

- They win all their remaining games, AND

- they win each game by an average of 15 points, AND

- the Chooks go winless for the rest of the year, AND

- they lose every game by an average of 15 points, AND

- Manly go winless for the rest of the year, AND

- Those last 2 "ifs" would include the Dogs beating Manly, and Dragons AND Broncos both beating the Roosters.

 

We’ll have a whip round to raise money for a Farmduckian Art Department. I’ll start the ball rolling with a 5p donation.

Yes as you point out the graphic is based on all possible outcomes including some unlikely or virtually impossible ones.

[Farmduck]

I'm still finishing off the full breakdown but here is the TL;DR version:

1. Storm 46

2. Panthers 44

3. Souths 42

4. Manly 34

5. Roosters 34

6. Parra 30

7. Sharks 26

8. Titans 24

9. Knights 24

10. Canberra 22

11. St George 20

12. Wests 20

13. Warriors 18

14. Cows 18

[Farmduck]

Warriors, Wests and Cows are only here because it's still technically possible - for another 1-2 rounds - that they could scrape into 8th, depending on other results.

 

1. MELBOURNE STORM (36 points, +465)

Run home:  Sea Eagles (A), Raiders (H), Titans, (A), Eels (H), Sharks (A)

Analysis: Basically, the Storm are just staying match-fit until the finals start from now on. They probably face 5 tougher-than-average games but they should still win all of them and their +/- doesn’t matter now

Major injuries: Tyson Smoothy (knee, Round 18), Darryn Schonig (knee, Round 18), Ryley Jacks (concussion, Round 21-23), Max King (Achilles, indefinite), Tom Eisenhuth (elbow, indefinite)

Projected results: WWWWW

Predicted finish: 1st (46 points)

 

2. PENRITH PANTHERS (34, +305)

Run home: Roosters (A), Dragons (A), Rabbitohs (H), Tigers (H), Eels (A)

Analysis: Still a bit short on troops with To’o, and Fisher Harris missing this week although Cleary has been named in the 21. I expect the Panthers to struggle against Roosters and Souths but still win at least 4/5 which should put them equal on points with Souths but ahead on +/-

Major injuries:  Nathan Cleary (shoulder, Round 20-22)

Projected results: WWWWW

Predicted finish: 2nd (44 points)

 

3. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (34, +231)

Run home: Eels (A), Titans (H), Panthers (A), Roosters (A), Dragons (H)

Analysis: The Bunnies have a fairly favourable run home, and I think they will win at least 3/5 and possibly 5/5. I’m just not sure whether Parra can bounce back and whether the Roosters can grind out wins against the top teams. The match between Souths and Panthers may decide second place.

Major injuries: Brock Gardner (Achilles, indefinite)

Projected results: WWLWW

Predicted finish: 3rd (42 points)

 

4. PARRAMATTA EELS (28, +189)

Run home: Rabbitohs (H), Sea Eagles (A), Cowboys (H), Storm (A), Panthers (H),

Analysis: I can only see them beating the Cows. Any extra wins would get them to 5^th instead of 6th

Major injuries: Nathaniel Roache (knee, indefinite), Wiremu Greig (ankle, indefinite)

Projected results: LLWLL

Predicted finish: 6th (30 points)

 

5. ROOSTERS (28, +146)

Run home: Panthers (H), Broncos (A), Dragons (A), Rabbitohs (H), Raiders (A)

Analysis: They should beat Broncos, Dragons and Raiders and keep their +/- in good shape. A good +/- might sneak them into 4^th ahead of Manly but I think Manly will pile on the points against Dogs and Cows.

Major injuries: Luke Keary (knee, season), Lindsay Collins (knee, season)

Projected results: LWWLW

Predicted finish: 5th (34points)

 

6. MANLY SEA EAGLES (26 +169)

Run home:  Storm (H), Eels (H), Raiders (A), Bulldogs (H), Cowboys (A)

Analysis: Simple here: as long as nothing happens to Tom Turbo, the Sea Beagles could beat anyone. I think they’re at least 50/50 against the Storm.

Major injuries: Zac Saddler (cheek, Round 21-22),  Andrew Davey (knee, season), Morgan Boyle (shoulder, season), Manase Fainu (stood down, indefinite)

Projected results: LWWWW

Predicted finish: 4th (34 points)

7. GOLD COAST TITANS (18, -24)

Run home: Cowboys (H), Rabbitohs (A), Storm (H), Knights (A), Warriors (H)

Analysis: I can see 3 more wins here, taking them to 24 points but I think the Sharks can get 4 wins so that would leave the Tights 8^th

Major injuries:

Projected results: WLLWW

Predicted finish: 8th (24 points)

 

8. CRONULLA SHARKS (18, -58)

Run home: Warriors (A), Knights (H), Tigers (A), Broncos (H), Storm (H)

Analysis: I could see 4 more wins for the Fish, assuming they will lose to the Storm and Manly. The Knights and Warriors games could be toss-ups. Warriors have lost 5 games this year by 6 points or less so beating Cronulla isn’t completely out of the question. Knights and Broncos beat Cronulla earlier this year and I don’t think the Shire team has improved that much. I think they’ll finish 7^th mainly because there’s no-one else to knock them lower. Does anyone believe the Knights are going on a 6-game winning streak? The Green Machine would have to beat Storm and Manly to overtake Cronulla.

The Sharks +/- was helped a bit by Manly clocking off 10 minutes early yesterday. A big margin against Tigers or Broncos would help them but, in some of my permutations, they may be the only team finishing on 26pts so +/- may not matter.

Major injuries: Jackson Ferris (foot, Round 18), Franklin Pele (foot, Round 25-finals), Wade Graham (concussion, indefinite) Shaun Johnson (not confirmed yet)

Projected results: WWWWL

Predicted finish: 7th (26 points)

 

9. CANBERRA RAIDERS (18, -82)

Run home: Dragons (H), Storm (A), Sea Eagles (H), Warriors (A), Roosters (H)

Analysis: They would have to beat Manly and Storm to overtake the Sharks into 7^th spot so their best hope is to beat the Knights into 8^th on 26 points with a better +/- .

More likely? They only win 2 more – Dragons and Warriors – then finish 9^th on 22.

Major injuries: Corey Horsburgh (wrist, Round 19-20), Bailey Simonsson (toe, Round 21-23), Curtis Scott (stood down, indefinite), Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (neck, season), Xavier Savage (shoulder, season),

Projected results: WLLWL

Predicted finish: 10th (22 points)

 

10. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (18, -82)

Run home: Raiders (A), Panthers (H), Roosters (H), Cowboys (H), Rabbitohs (A)

Analysis: They should be back to “full” strength after their “BBQ” suspensions but now Ben Hunt is out, possibly for the rest of the season. I can see them beating the Cows and maybe the Raiders. Souths might do them a favour and rest some players in the last round but not if the Bunnies are a chance of snaring 2^nd spot.

Major injuries: Max Feagai (concussion, Round 18), Cameron McInnes (knee, season) Ben Hunt (arm fracture, 4+ weeks)

Projected results: LLLLWL

Predicted finish: 11th (20 points)

 

11. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (18, -147)

Run home: Broncos (H), Sharks (A), Bulldogs (A), Titans (H), Broncos (A)

Analysis: With Pearce coming back and a good win behind them, Knights should win at least 3. 4 wins would get them to 26 with a relatively poor +/- so it might come down to the game against the Titans. If they win that they can keep the Titans out of 8^th spot.

Major injuries: Edrick Lee (foot, indefinite), Pasami Saulo (leg, indefinite)

Projected results: WLWLW

Predicted finish: 9th (24 points)

 

12. WARRIORS (14, -129)

Run home:  Sharks (H), Bulldogs (H), Broncos (A), Raiders (H), Titans (A)

Analysis: I’ve kept them in because they are still a mathematical possibility. It’s not completely inconceivable that they might win 5/5 since there are no completely reliable teams they face. I think they’ll beat the Dogs and Ponies.

Finish: 13^th (18 points)
 

13. WESTS TIGERS (14, -152)

Run home: Bulldogs (A), Cowboys (A), Sharks (H), Panthers (A), Bulldogs (H)

Analysis: 3 winnable games but who knows? After this weekend’s results I think they’ll drop out of this thread.

Major injuries: Russell Packer (knee, indefinite), AJ Keapoa (knee, season)

Projected results: WWLLW

Predicted finish: 12^th (20 points)

 

14. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (14, -203)

Run home: Titans (A), Tigers (H), Eels (A), Dragons (A), Sea Eagles (H)

Analysis: ? Might beat Wests and get another fluke win. Not enough

Major injuries: Reuben Cotter (foot, Round 19-20), Ben Hampton (pectoral, Round 19-21)

Projected results: LWLWL

Predicted finish: 14th (18 points)

[Farmduck]

Updated after Round 21. The bottom 3 on this list are still highly improbable outside chances. Cows play Tigers this week so one of them will drop off and Newcastle play Cronulla so one of them will improve their chances of a Finals spot. The other game which could have an impact is Manly v Parra where Manly could jump to 4th with a relatively easy run home.

 

 

1. MELBOURNE STORM (38 points, +475)

Run home:  Raiders (H), Titans, (A), Eels (H), Sharks (A)

Analysis: Don’t change anything and hope nobody gets injured. That’s about all they have to do.

Major injuries: Max King (Achilles, indefinite),

Projected results: WWWW

Predicted finish: 1st (46 points)

 

2. PENRITH PANTHERS (36, +311)

Run home: Dragons (A), Rabbitohs (H), Tigers (H), Eels (A)

Analysis: Cleary should be back this week although To’o is still a couple of weeks away. They can win all remaining games.

Major injuries:  Nathan Cleary (shoulder, Round 20-22)

Projected results: WWWW

Predicted finish: 2nd (44 points)

 

3. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (36, +259)

Run home: Titans (H), Panthers (A), Roosters (A), Dragons (H)

Analysis: The Bunnies have a fairly favourable run home, and I think they will win at least 3/4 and possibly 4/4. I’m just not sure whether the Roosters can grind out wins against the top teams. The match between Souths and Panthers may decide second place.

Major injuries: Brock Gardner (Achilles, indefinite)

Projected results: WLWW

Predicted finish: 3rd (42 points)

 

4. PARRAMATTA EELS (28, +161)

Run home: Sea Eagles (A), Cowboys (H), Storm (A), Panthers (H),

Analysis: Eels might drop to 6^th with a loss this week. Their +/- is only 20pts better than the Chooks who should beat the Ponies (and possibly boost their +/-) On current form I have to tip Manly to beat Parra this week. With RCG and Reed Mahoney out, the Eels will struggle.

Major injuries: Nathaniel Roache (knee, indefinite), Wiremu Greig (ankle, indefinite) Reed Mahoney (season) Campbell Gillard (groin, finals)

Projected results: LWLL

Predicted finish: 6th (30 points)

 

5. ROOSTERS (28, +140)

Run home: Broncos (A), Dragons (A), Rabbitohs (H), Raiders (A)

Analysis: I think they’ll finish this weekend in 4^th. A margin of 20+ against the Bronx could help them hang on to 4^th spot at the end of Round 25, but Manly also have a couple of games where they could run up their +/-

Major injuries: Luke Keary (knee, season), Lindsay Collins (knee, season)

Projected results: WWLW

Predicted finish: 5th (34points)

 

6. MANLY SEA EAGLES (26 +159)

Run home: Eels (H), Raiders (A), Bulldogs (H), Cowboys (A)

Analysis: I think they’ll win all 4 and I think they seem more likely to run up a couple of big scores than the Roosters. I think that +/- advantage will get them into 4^th but they should be wary of a Parra bounce back from a few weeks of dreadful form.

Major injuries: Zac Saddler (cheek, Round 21-22),  Andrew Davey (knee, season), Morgan Boyle (shoulder, season), Manase Fainu (stood down, indefinite)

Projected results: WWWW

Predicted finish: 4th (34 points)

7. GOLD COAST TITANS (20, -2)

Run home: Rabbitohs (A), Storm (H), Knights (A), Warriors (H)

Analysis: I can see 2 more wins here, taking them to 24 points but I can also see the Knights winning 2 and Sharks possibly 3. On +/- they are over 100pts better than Newcastle so I think that should cement 7^th spot for them, assuming they beat the Knights. If they don’t beat the Knights they could drop as low as 11^th.

Major injuries:

Projected results: LLWW

Predicted finish: 7th (24 points)

 

8. CANBERRA RAIDERS (20, -74)

Run home: Storm (A), Sea Eagles (H), Warriors (A), Roosters (H)

Analysis: I think they’ll only beat the Warriors

Major injuries: Corey Horsburgh (wrist, Round 19-20), Curtis Scott (stood down, indefinite), Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (neck, season), Xavier Savage (shoulder, season),

Projected results: LLWL

Predicted finish: 10th (22 points)

9. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (20, -139)

Run home: Sharks (A), Bulldogs (A), Titans (H), Broncos (A)

Analysis: I honestly don’t know. I think the Titans must be favourites to beat Knights and that only leaves 2 likely wins. If they could beat Cronulla this week they could jump as high as 7^th and possibly stay there. These mid-table teams are very hard to tip

Major injuries: Edrick Lee (foot, indefinite), Pasami Saulo (leg, indefinite)

Projected results: LWLW

Predicted finish: 9th (24 points)

 

10. CRONULLA SHARKS (18, -60)

Run home: Knights (H), Tigers (A), Broncos (H), Storm (H)

Analysis: The loss to Warriors has hurt them. Now they need 3 wins just to make the 8. Their +/- will probably stop them displacing the Titans so 8^th is their most likely destination.

Major injurie

Analysis: 2 winnable games but who knows? As soon as they lose a game or 2 more teams reach 24 points, I’ll drop them off this list.

Major injuries: Russell Packer (knee, indefinite), AJ Keapoa (knee, season)

Projected results: WLLW

Predicted finish: 8^th (24 points)

 

 

11. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (18, -90)

Run home: Panthers (H), Roosters (H), Cowboys (H), Rabbitohs (A)

Analysis: If they could win 4/4 they could nail down 7^th. ¾ would get them 8^th or 9^th. Two wins might get them 10^th.

Major injuries: Cameron McInnes (knee, season) Ben Hunt (arm fracture, 4+ weeks)

Projected results: LLWL

Predicted finish: 11th (20 points)

 

12. WARRIORS (16, -127)

Run home:  Bulldogs (H), Broncos (A), Raiders (H), Titans (A)

Analysis: I’ve kept them in because they are still a mathematical possibility. It’s not completely inconceivable that they might win 4/4 since there are no completely reliable teams they face. I think they’ll beat the Dogs and Ponies.

Finish: 12^th (20 points)
 

13. WESTS TIGERS (16, -140)

Run home: Cowboys (A), Sharks (H), Panthers (A), Bulldogs (H)

Analysis: 2 winnable games but who knows? As soon as they lose a game or 2 more teams reach 24 points, I’ll drop them off this list.

Major injuries: Russell Packer (knee, indefinite), AJ Keapoa (knee, season)

Projected results: WLLW

Predicted finish: 13^th (20 points)

 

14. NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS (14, -248)

Run home: Tigers (H), Eels (A), Dragons (A), Sea Eagles (H)

Analysis: ? The only reason they are still here is because the 7 teams above them all play each other a few times over the last 4 weeks so they can’t all get maximum points. The Cows +/- means they would need to win all 4 with a few 60-point wins. The Cows have only scored 60 twice in their history.

Major injuries:

Projected results: LLWL

Predicted finish: 14th (16 points)

 

[Graham]

Who is predicted to finish 8th?

[Farmduck]

11 minutes ago, Graham said:

Who is predicted to finish 8th?

So much cross-checking in doing this thread. I'm sure I've selected some games to have both teams win as well.

I think the Sharks will finish 8th. I've amended that.

Some of the Sharks' future hinges on the Sharks/Knights game this week and the Titans/Knights game. Sharks have a big +/- advantage over the Knights so they can risk coming equal on wins.

[R L Winger]

In my opinion whether right or wrong only time will tell.....The only teams capable of winning this premiership 1st in line the Melbourne Storm, 2nd the South Sydney Rabbitohs, 3rd the Manly Warringah Sea Eagles, all coming to a peak at the right time of the year.

My take on a few more teams the Sydney Roosters, too busted up, but will fight in vainly to the final whistle of a semi final game.

The Penrith Panthers too many players playing injured, peeked to early with a coach with too many runs on the board without a Grand Final win.

The Parramatta Eels peeked to Early, sack the coach talk already doing the rounds, will struggle from here on in.

The last 2 teams whoever they will be, tryhards that will only be there to make up the numbers.

St George Illawarra Dragons and the Wests Tigers have more hope of jumping on a free intergalactic space flight with either Richard Branson or Elon Musk than any chance to make the final 8 in season 2021 of the NRL.

 

[Graham]

At great expense by a team of technicians and artists this has been produced:

NRL.com appears to have more resources and staff than some of us.

[Farmduck]

The Cows have dropped off the list this week. Tigers and Warriors are still in it, mainly because none of the teams 8-11 had a win. Of the 2 teams on 20 points, I'm expecting both to lose this week. Of the teams on 18 points I expect the Sharks and Warriors to win which would  give us 4 teams on 20 points fighting for 8th spot.

 

1. MELBOURNE STORM (40 points, +485)

Run home:  Titans, (A), Eels (H), Sharks (A)

Analysis: Don’t change anything and hope nobody gets injured. That’s about all they have to do.

Major injuries: Max King (Achilles, indefinite),

Projected results: WWW

Predicted finish: 1st (46 points)

 

2. PENRITH PANTHERS (38, +329)

Run home: Rabbitohs (H), Tigers (H), Eels (A)

Analysis: To’o is still a couple of weeks away. They can win all remaining games.

Major injuries: 

Projected results: WWW

Predicted finish: 2nd (44 points)

 

3. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (38, +289)

Run home: Panthers (A), Roosters (A), Dragons (H)

Analysis: I think they will win at least 2/3 and possibly all 3. I’m just not sure whether the Roosters can grind out wins against the top teams. The match between Souths and Panthers may decide second place.

Major injuries: Brock Gardner (Achilles, indefinite)

Projected results: LWW

Predicted finish: 3rd (42 points)

 

4. ROOSTERS (30, +141)

Run home: Dragons (A), Rabbitohs (H), Raiders (A)

Analysis: I think they’ll drop to 5^th on +/- after this round. Manly also have a couple of games where they could run up their +/- and I can’t see the Chooks being able to rack up the big scores they would need to grab 4^th.

Major injuries: Luke Keary (knee, season), Lindsay Collins (knee, season)

Projected results: WLW

Predicted finish: 5th (34points)

 

5. MANLY SEA EAGLES (28 +205)

Run home: Raiders (A), Bulldogs (H), Cowboys (A)

Analysis: I think they’ll win all 3 and I think they seem more likely to run up a couple of big scores than the Roosters. I think that +/- advantage will get them into 4^th.

Major injuries: Tom Turbo (face, finals), Zac Saddler (cheek, Round 21-22),  Andrew Davey (knee, season), Morgan Boyle (shoulder, season), Manase Fainu (stood down, indefinite)

Projected results: WWW

Predicted finish: 4th (34 points)

 

6. PARRAMATTA EELS (28, +115)

Run home: Cowboys (H), Storm (A), Panthers (H),

Analysis: Eels drop to 6^th this week. Their +/- is irrelevant now because nobody else will finish on 30 points.

Major injuries: Nathaniel Roache (knee, indefinite), Wiremu Greig (ankle, indefinite) Reed Mahoney (season) Campbell Gillard (groin, finals)

Projected results: WLL

Predicted finish: 6th (30 points)
 

7. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (22, -137)

Run home: Bulldogs (A), Titans (H), Broncos (A)

Analysis: I think they are guaranteed a finals spot because none of the teams below them seems capable of a 3-game winning streak. They only need 2 wins to finish on 26 points and none of the chasing pack will reach 26.

Major injuries: Edrick Lee (foot, indefinite), Pasami Saulo (leg, indefinite)

Projected results: WLW

Predicted finish: 7th (26 points)

8. GOLD COAST TITANS (20, -32)

Run home: Storm (H), Knights (A), Warriors (H)

Analysis: The game against Newcastle could be the de facto playoff for 7^th spot. I expect the Tights to beat NZers but not the Storm. This gives them 22 which may be enough to cement 8^th but keeping the scores close is also essential, as I expect 3 teams to end on 22.

Major injuries:

Projected results: L?W

Predicted finish: 8th (22 points)

 

9. CANBERRA RAIDERS (20, -84)

Run home: Sea Eagles (H), Warriors (A), Roosters (H)

Analysis: I think they’ll only beat the Warriors and their +/- could suffer badly enough to drop behind Cronulla who should get 2 wins to overtake Canberra on +/- on 22 points.

Major injuries: Curtis Scott (stood down, indefinite), Xavier Savage (shoulder, season),

Projected results: LWL

Predicted finish: 10th (22 points)

 

10. CRONULLA SHARKS (18, -62)

Run home: Tigers (A), Broncos (H), Storm (H)

Analysis: The loss to Warriors has hurt them. Now they need 3 wins just to make the 8. Their +/- will probably stop them displacing the Titans so 8^th is their most likely destination.

Major injuries: Andrew Fifita (larynx, TBC) Shaun Johnson (hamstring, season)

Analysis: 2 winnable games but who knows? As soon as they lose a game or 2 more teams reach 24 points, I’ll drop them off this list.

Projected results: WWL

Predicted finish: 9^th (22 points)

 

11. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (18, -108)

Run home: Roosters (H), Cowboys (H), Rabbitohs (A)

Analysis: Who knows? They should beat the Cows but … The Roosters are beatble but St George would have to play their best game in months. They lost 2 more players for the season this week so maybe they’ll run out of cattle.

Major injuries: Cameron McInnes (knee, season) Ben Hunt (arm fracture, 4+ weeks) Andrew McCullogh (season), Cody Ramsey (facial, season)

Projected results: LWL

Predicted finish: 11th (20 points)

 

12. WARRIORS (18, -113)

Run home:  Broncos (A), Raiders (H), Titans (A)

Analysis: I’ve kept them in because they are still a mathematical possibility. It’s not completely inconceivable that they might win 3/3 since their opponents aren’t very impressive or consistent. More likely they’ll win 1 more and finish on 20 points with +/- deciding if they are 11^th, 12^th or 13^th.

Finish: 12^th (20 points)
 

13. WESTS TIGERS (18, -132)

Run home: Sharks (H), Panthers (A), Bulldogs (H)

Analysis: 2 winnable games but who knows? As soon as they lose a game or 2 more teams reach 24 points, I’ll drop them off this list.

Major injuries: Russell Packer (knee, indefinite), AJ Keapoa (knee, season)

Projected results: LLW

Predicted finish: 13^th (20 points)

[Farmduck]

The ladder has divided into 4 groups:

- the bottom 3 who will stay there and the only goal for the Qld teams is to finish higher in this group that the other Qld team,

- the top 3 who have a 6-point gap over 4th and look like they will all win their last 2.

- teams 4, 5 and 6, Easts, Manly and Parra, who can't be overtaken by any lower teams and don't have enough games left to rise out of this group, and

- teams 7 to 13. If any of these could win their last 2 they can finish in the 8. Even Newcastle, currently 7th on 24 points, could miss the finals and Wests, 13th on 18 points, could still snag 8th spot.

All up, I think it's largely irrelevant as I believe only Storm, Panthers, Bunnies and Manly can go all the way.

 

1. MELBOURNE STORM (42 points, +499)

Run home:  Eels (H), Sharks (A)

Analysis: Don’t change anything and hope nobody gets injured. That’s about all they have to do.

Major injuries: Max King (Achilles, indefinite),

Projected results: WW

Predicted finish: 1st (46 points)

 

2. PENRITH PANTHERS (40, +342)

Run home: Tigers (H), Eels (A)

Analysis: To’o is still a couple of weeks away. They can win all remaining games.

Major injuries: 

Projected results: WW

Predicted finish: 2nd (44 points)

 

3. SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS (38, +276)

Run home: Roosters (A), Dragons (H)

Analysis: I think they will win both.

Major injuries: Brock Gardner (Achilles, indefinite)

Projected results: WW

Predicted finish: 3rd (42 points)

 

4. ROOSTERS (32, +159)

Run home: Rabbitohs (H), Raiders (A)

Analysis: I think they’ll drop to 5^th on +/- after this round. Manly also have a couple of games where they could run up their +/- and I can’t see the Chooks being able to rack up the big scores they would need to grab 4^th.

Major injuries: Luke Keary (knee, season), Lindsay Collins (knee, season)

Projected results: LW

Predicted finish: 5th (34points)

 

5. MANLY SEA EAGLES (30 +206)

Run home: Bulldogs (H), Cowboys (A)

Analysis: I think they’ll win both and I think they seem more likely to run up a couple of big scores than the Roosters. I think that +/- advantage will get them into 4^th.

Major injuries: Tom Turbo (face, finals), Zac Saddler (cheek, Round 21-22),  Andrew Davey (knee, season), Morgan Boyle (shoulder, season), Manase Fainu (stood down, indefinite)

Projected results: WW

Predicted finish: 4th (34 points)

 

6. PARRAMATTA EELS (30, +131)

Run home: Storm (A), Panthers (H),

Analysis: Eels drop to 6^th this week. Their +/- is irrelevant now because nobody else will finish on 30 points so that is their lowest spot. The alternative: 2 upset wins and a possible overtaking of the Chooks on +/- to finish 5^th.

Major injuries: Nathaniel Roache (knee, indefinite), Wiremu Greig (ankle, indefinite) Reed Mahoney (season) Campbell Gillard (groin, finals)

Projected results: LL

Predicted finish: 6th (30 points)
 

7. NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS (24, -131)

Run home: Titans (H), Broncos (A)

Analysis: I think they are guaranteed a finals spot because none of the teams below them seems capable of a 2-game winning streak. They only need 1 wins to finish on 26 points and none of the chasing pack will reach 26.

Major injuries: Edrick Lee (foot, indefinite), Pasami Saulo (leg, indefinite)

Projected results: WW

Predicted finish: 7th (28 points)

 

8. CRONULLA SHARKS (20, -32)

Run home: Broncos (H), Storm (H)

Analysis: More important than the win over the Tigers was the scoreline. That has pushed their +/- into the zone where they can afford to finish on 22 points and still be 8^th – probably.

Major injuries: Andrew Fifita (larynx, TBC) Shaun Johnson (hamstring, season)

Projected results: WL

Predicted finish: 8^th (22 points)

9. GOLD COAST TITANS (20, -46)

Run home: Knights (A), Warriors (H)

Analysis: The game against Newcastle could be the de facto playoff for 7^th spot. I expect the Tights to beat NZers. This gives them 22 which may be enough to cement 8^th but keeping the scores close is also essential, as I expect 3 teams to end on 22.

Major injuries:

Projected results: LW

Predicted finish: 9th (22 points)

 

10. CANBERRA RAIDERS (20, -85)

Run home: Warriors (A), Roosters (H)

Analysis: Still a possibility because Sharks and/or Titans may lose both remaining games. If Raiders win both games they could end up 8^th or, if Raiders win 2 and Knights lose 2 and Sharks and Titans lose 2, Canberra could end up 7^th on 24 points.

Major injuries: Xavier Savage (shoulder, season),

Projected results: WL

Predicted finish: 10th (22 points)

 

  11. WARRIORS (18, -115)

Run home:  Raiders (H), Titans (A)

Analysis: Only a theoretical chance. Only still here because a lot of the teams 7 – 11 play each other over the last 2 weeks so they can’t all progress.

Finish: 12^th (20 points)

 

12. ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS (18, -126)

Run home: Cowboys (H), Rabbitohs (A)

Analysis: Who knows? They should beat the Cows but … The only reason they are still on this thread is because no team has reached 22 points yet.

Major injuries: Cameron McInnes (knee, season) Ben Hunt (arm fracture, 4+ weeks) Andrew McCullogh (season), Cody Ramsey (facial, season)

Projected results: WL

Predicted finish: 11th (20 points)

 

13. WESTS TIGERS (18, -162)

Run home: Panthers (A), Bulldogs (H)

Analysis: They should beat the Dogs and finish on 20 points so, until one of teams 8-12 reaches 22 points, they are still a theoretical possibility.

Major injuries: Russell Packer (knee, indefinite), AJ Keapoa (knee, season)

Projected results: LW

Predicted finish: 13^th (20 points)

 

[Graham]

Sound reasoning FD 

[Graham]