Jump to content
Col81

Try Scorer odds

Recommended Posts

On 17/12/2019 at 19:14, The Phantom Horseman said:

Regan Grace at 25-1 with Hills looks a decent each-way bet in the top try scorer market to me. He finished fourth in this market last year, only 3 tries behind Makinson (who is favourite at around 8-1 or 10-1), if he stays healthy Grace shouldn't be far away.

Grace should be up there

22 try’s in 2019

18 try’s in 2018 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi gates, thoughts on feki?? I think eden is done I thought his day was done when Powell walked across pitch. Looks could kill.......... I do think Richardson will do well

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Sir Kevin Sinfield said:

Grace should be up there

22 try’s in 2019

18 try’s in 2018 

Last year was a really low scoring year.  

Last 4 seasons before thay Winner has had at least 27 (27, 28, 35, 38ish).  My problem with Grace is the spread of tries amongst the Saints back line, will make it hard for him to get many more.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Col81 said:

Hi gates, thoughts on feki?? I think eden is done I thought his day was done when Powell walked across pitch. Looks could kill.......... I do think Richardson will do well

Feki is alot better than the other wingers at Cas but I think he will play right wing.  He will also be asked to do a lot of work taking hard early carries to get us on the front foot.

Can't make my mind up about Eden, thought he was done but wouldn't be surprised to see him back on the left edge start of the season.  

Think Richardson will bring some fluidity and organisation back to the attack which has been clunky for the last 2 seasons.  He's made a big impression pre season so far.

With that in mind I would rule out a Cas winger for top try scorer, but I'd want to see squad numbers and a couple of friendlies before punting (if only be interested in our left winger for a punt tbh, especially if it's Feki).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Had  an other look tonight and struggling to find any more bets then the Hanley ones I've had I  the try scorer market.  I'd imagine the winner will need at least 27 tries next year to get that he will need to play most weeks and be an attacking focus.

I could only be looking at punting wingers for next season which rules out a lot of the market (Evalds would be the only none winger with appeal but I think Hastings departure will lower his tally)

Eden/Feki (Cas) - left winger of interest when confirmed

Wigan wingers - Not sure if any of their wingers will play the vast majority of games (3 quality wingers and French who could drop in)

Saints - tries spread too widely across the quality back line.

Charnley - not convinced wire play in a way which will lead to a winger hitting 27+.  Wouldn't be interested in Lineham.

Hull - if Naulago had he been given the 2 or 5 shirt might have caught my eye.  But again potentially 4 quality wingers could end up sharing the tries and hard to predict which to back.

Can't see Hull KR or Huddersfield scoring enough to consider their wingers.  Similar with Toronto and Salford but more so i wouldnt be sure which winger would be the principle either.

Tom Johnstone would be the one from Wakey of interest just seems extremely unlucky with injury and doesnt look value with that in mind.

Catalan, Tom Davies sparks a bit of interest with a star half back inside him at 50/1.   Although can't see him getting 27+ so would realistically be aiming for a place (would pay out 6.25/1 considering the lost 'win' component if he was 2nd, 3rd or 4th).  Bit of a meh bet when I think of it like that.

I'm still falling down on Hanley to be honest, even at 16/1.  Injuries to him and other key players permitting he looks set to get sullied with plenty of chances.

Over the last 5 seasons Gale has only played consistantly  in 3 of them.  

2015 

Left winger Carney (18 tries despite missing 12 games, Solomona filled his boots when Carney was out with 18 tries in 16 games)

2016

Left winger Solomona (top try scorer, 40 Super league tries, played at full back for a few games and missed a few through injury)

2017

Left winger Eden (top try scorer, 38 tries)

Add in Hurrell who is such a threat and creates chances for his winger and it looks a really nice bet.

Think I'll just try and get a bit more on Hanley and keep an eye on Cas/Wigan pre season for a potential 2nd pick.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 hours ago, Sir Kevin Sinfield said:

Grace should be up there

22 try’s in 2019

18 try’s in 2018 

Grace was a bit unlucky in that Percival missed a fair few games in 2019 and Saints tried several different centre options. Grace had to put up with having LMS as his centre in 2 games so got virtually no decent passes at all


Lets Get Brexit Done !!!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This isn’t a glamorous bet with big odds, it’s just one that I think is overpriced by Betfred. 

Any Super League team to score over 60 points in a regular season game - 8/13. 

This bet has only failed to land in one season (88/89) since Rugby League changed to 4 points for a try in 1983. Betfred have given this about a 62% probability for some reason. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Oliver Clothesoff said:

This isn’t a glamorous bet with big odds, it’s just one that I think is overpriced by Betfred. 

Any Super League team to score over 60 points in a regular season game - 8/13. 

This bet has only failed to land in one season (88/89) since Rugby League changed to 4 points for a try in 1983. Betfred have given this about a 62% probability for some reason. 

Win or lose, this is a really good spot as it's clearly a value bet, albeit not one anybody is going to get rich from. Every season there seems to be at least one occasion when one team suddenly implodes, eg Hull FC twice conceded 60+ pts last season, whilst I think there were 3 instances in 2018.

When something that has happened in each of the last 30 seasons is priced at 8-13 to happen again, I'd want a good reason to be a layer rather than backer at 8-13.

It's also worth adding that there are now 29 rounds, whereas in many past seasons there were slightly or significantly fewer.

For that reason I think the market in which Betfred are offering 2-1 for there to be 7 or more games won to nil is probably even better value. I make it the number of regular season games won to nil over the last 5 seasons has been:
2019 8 from 29 rounds
2018 5 from 23 rounds
2017 9 from 23 rounds
2016 5 from 23 rounds
2015 6 from 23 rounds

as the number of rounds went up by a multiple of 1.26 from last year you could extrapolate figures of 6.3, 11.34, 6.3 and 7.56 for the years 2018-2015. You could definitely argue that this market should be odds on rather than 2-1.

Edited by The Phantom Horseman

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 18/12/2019 at 22:46, Gates1 said:

Hull - if Naulago had he been given the 2 or 5 shirt might have caught my eye.  But again potentially 4 quality wingers could end up sharing the tries and hard to predict which to back.

I wouldn't pay much attention to the squad numbers at Hull. Naulago has kept the 33 that he had last year, presumably at his request. Fonua has 24, again this must be a number with some significance to him. 

If you fancy backing a Hull winger I would just wait until the pre season games have been played and then we will have a much better idea of who the starters will be. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 09/01/2020 at 14:59, Col81 said:

Who is left winger for cas yet do we know? is Feki value?

Will know more after the Toronto friendly. However Feki and Olpherts look like been starting wingers.

Eden has played two friendlies (including the one with young and reserve team players today at Widnes), suspect he will be reserve full back, rumoured Olpherts has taken his squad number.

Based on the friendly Richardson played in he played right pivot so Cas might be a bit less left focussed next year.

Olpherts could be a value bet.   Don't think he's even in the markets yet.

Edited by Gates1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at Leeds yesterday Handley didn't see the ball it was all up the right. He seemed frustrated. Newman looked good but can't see odds for him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Col81 said:

Looking at Leeds yesterday Handley didn't see the ball it was all up the right. He seemed frustrated. Newman looked good but can't see odds for him.

Gale didn't play yesterday though, he's the key to Handley imo.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Col81 said:

Looking at Leeds yesterday Handley didn't see the ball it was all up the right. He seemed frustrated. Newman looked good but can't see odds for him.

Assuming Briscoe will be on the right side and can stay fit, 33/1 isn't a horrendous shout. 

Newman is 80/1 with Sky Bet. The only issue I see with him is where Leeds try and play Sutcliffe. Whilst it's expected that he'll be at SR, Leeds have played him at centre in their two pre-season games. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 09/01/2020 at 14:59, Col81 said:

Who is left winger for cas yet do we know? is Feki value?

Feki looks like been left wing and is good value, Eden looks to be out of the 17 and takes is probably impacting on Feki's odds.  Ive backed him at 16/1.  Also backed him 7/4 to be Cas top try scorer as a cover bet.

Feki Cas top try scorer and Handley Leeds top try scorer looks a decent double at 4.77/1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The problem with Gale is will he ever play.... he seems to get a lot of niggles and can't be relied upon. But he got no service at all yesterday. Briscoe looks 2 stone over weight to what he used too. I don't think he has the pace to be topscorer. Regan Grace is a good shout he doesn't get any injuries. 20/1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 09/01/2020 at 16:27, MZH said:

I wouldn't pay much attention to the squad numbers at Hull. Naulago has kept the 33 that he had last year, presumably at his request. Fonua has 24, again this must be a number with some significance to him. 

If you fancy backing a Hull winger I would just wait until the pre season games have been played and then we will have a much better idea of who the starters will be. 

Sounds like Naulago did okay.  He'd probably be my preference and looks decent value.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 17/12/2019 at 23:13, Col81 said:

No value, in it as far as I can see handley was the only good price at 20s. Grace wont score enough saints always favour naiqaima and makinson. On the left percival hasn't been the best at providing assists and zeb taia is 1 year older (his last year). 

They'll all be 1 year older not just Zeb Taia! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

How did feki get on today? I know he scored? Is he a contender for top try? I've done handley I'm looking for 1 more player then I have 2 good each way bets on. I'm thinking grace or feki

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 13/01/2020 at 23:06, Gates1 said:

Sounds like Naulago did okay.  He'd probably be my preference and looks decent value.

Started again today and scored a hat trick. 

Looks very good value imo. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just cant see him playing all through the season to much competition with Dawson, Swift, naulago, Farimino list goes on Swift hasn't gone there to be a sub

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 19/01/2020 at 22:46, MZH said:

Started again today and scored a hat trick. 

Looks very good value imo. 

Yep, a nice bet imo.

Also 7/2 to be Hulls top try scorer has been dropped into a couple of multiples.

Handley (20/1), Feki (16/1) and Naulago  (25/1) are my 3 against the field top try scorer market.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Quite interesting last night that Wigan seemed to focus the majority of their attacks down the Right Edge. Don’t know if loosing Sam Powell effected this. Should favour Liam Marshall this season if that is their attacking patterns though. 

Edited by RugbyLad

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, RugbyLad said:

Quite interesting last night that Wigan seemed to focus the majority of their attacks down the Right Edge. Don’t know if loosing Adam Powell effected this. Should favour Liam Marshall this season if that is their attacking patterns though. 

14/1 on Betfred looks decent value.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.



×
×
  • Create New...