V’landys Faces NRLs Biggest Test: Blowout Scores (Merged threads)

[Smudger06]

21 hours ago, The Rocket said:

Well not really, when you consider that Foxtel shows all 8 games per week and they are up 13%, that equates to 345 000 extra viewers per round,( 43k on av. per game) and given the three FTA games probably pull about an average of 600 000, total 1.8m viewers across three games, a 5% loss on this would equate to about 90-100 000 viewers per week. You would have to say that overall viewing numbers are up about 245 000 viewers per week. ( 345K(+) - 100 000(-)).

I`m trying to be as fair as possible on these figures and all the numbers I use are from published data. You might wonder where I am getting these figures. I can tell you I have a long standing interest in this area of the game and if I come across any relevant articles I get my wife to print it out so I can keep the hard copy, I`ve got quite the stack.

To quote one article " TV ratings are an under-explored and critically important part of the modern game. Ratings should be a, if not the, key factor in judging how clubs are performing and what they bring to the commercial viability of the game".

Good work Rocket. You should extend your expertise in RL viewing figures and ratings to the UK, that would be helpful. 

[Sports Prophet]

9 hours ago, unapologetic pedant said:

You didn`t respond to the substantive point (you`re making a habit of that), which was that one or two lop-sided scores can disguise how close all the other games in a round were.

Take a look at my post immediately prior to yours. That is exactly what I did. I have always been an advocate of reading before I rant. Try it out.

There are a lot of people talking about AFL here and it’s not me.

Why the competitiveness of the AFL should have any bearing on an individual’s enjoyment on the current competitiveness of the NRL is beyond me.

[unapologetic pedant]

On 23/05/2021 at 22:15, Sports Prophet said:

All good points UP, and I had considered last week, perhaps I should have reviewed the number of fixtures a round where the winning margin was 16 points or more (what is a blowout winning margin?).

That in itself can cause its own issues where the blower, or the blown, may have scored a converted try in the last minute to reduce/increase the winning margin to beyond/under the “defined” 16 point marker.

Avg winning margin this round was 16.125.

 

2 hours ago, Sports Prophet said:

Take a look at my post immediately prior to yours. That is exactly what I did. I have always been an advocate of reading before I rant. Try it out.

I got your point in the earlier post. And amplified it in the first line of my reply. You didn`t take that point any further, preferring to focus on the follow-up comments about the more lop-sided AFL scores. Which I maintain are relevant for context, in that if someone enjoys watching the game of Aussie Rules more than the game of Rugby League, this will influence how that person judges the scores of the respective games. 

[unapologetic pedant]

12 hours ago, The Rocket said:

It goes to show what a force streaming is becoming and we really have no idea of the whole picture until those figures are included. Something we can discuss later but in the extended afl tv deal there does seem to be a change with regards the number of games they are broadcasting FTA.

They only occasionally release streaming figures for high-rating games. With the latest there are now three confirmed I know of.

Storm/Rabbitohs - 335k Fox, 485k Fox + Kayo, Rabbitohs/Tigers 306k Fox, 465k Fox + Kayo, Roosters/Broncos 314k Fox, 499k Fox + Kayo.

The significant fact is that (with the usual caveat, as far as I know) the NRL figures on Foxtel are roughly similar to previous years. So the Kayo streaming figures are in addition to the numbers of Foxtel viewers in 2020, 2019, 2018 which is as far back as I`ve been following them.

The same is not true this year for AFL, where a substantial drop on Foxtel is being hidden by the increase in streaming. A fact Fox spokesmen are studiously avoiding drawing attention to.

If the explanation is that AFL fans are switching from Fox to Kayo, why has that not happened for NRL?

[unapologetic pedant]

14 hours ago, The Rocket said:

You know what, apart from the predictable moaning from a few drongos, Andrew Johns et.al. there has been a lot of really positive headlines coming out of this whole saga. To paraphrase a couple " World expert on Concussions says Rugby League is on the right track", "Neuroscientists says League doing the right thing" right down to " Kids League as safe as soccer", I`ve been really heartened by this stuff because it`s the sort of headlines that will achieve a cut-through with an audience that may well be very skeptical about League, and even if it doesn`t mean those people will let their kids play, just associating the game with those sort of headlines adds a positivity and professionalism that we are seriously concerned about player welfare and that can only benefit the game on so many levels.

People in junior League have long had their efforts to promote RL and persuade parents it`s safe to play undermined by the barrage of publicity depicting the pro game as the epitome of brutality.

Those working for Soccer or AFL in Western Sydney have no need to explicitly deprecate League as dangerous. The NRL media do all that for them.

Rather like the "simple game" falsehood, so many in RL are at great pains to regurgitate the propaganda of the game`s detractors.

[The Rocket]

On 25/05/2021 at 23:43, unapologetic pedant said:

People in junior League have long had their efforts to promote RL and persuade parents it`s safe to play undermined by the barrage of publicity depicting the pro game as the epitome of brutality.

Those working for Soccer or AFL in Western Sydney have no need to explicitly deprecate League as dangerous. The NRL media do all that for them.

The problem that League faces, like boxing before it, is that it is out of step with trends in most western economies and societies. As economies have transitioned away from manual then manufacturing based economies with their emphasis on strength to serviced based economies based on intelligence and creativity, League has retreated in its` catchment pool in line with the shrinking of those parts of the economy that it has been traditionally associated with. Afl has cleverly reacted to that by employing large numbers of articulate well groomed presenters that can analyse their game intelligently (even though it is ridiculous) and still talk about how tough it is without sounding like thugs and at least sounding credible. Union does the same.

Over here our FTA broadcaster insists on employing former `greats` who although semi-intelligent, Andrew Johns, Johnathon Thurston, Paul Gallen et.al. do nothing but reinforce the notion that League is not a game for anyone but blokes who can barely squeeze into a suit and are only passably eloquent. I have to say that Billy Slater is a shining light in an otherwise dismal FTA TV coverage.

The thing that I find depressing is that Nine, despite falling ratings, make no attempt to update their coverages image and seem to think League deserves no better or that there is no point in even trying to depict a more urbane or at least upwardly mobile image. It`s like they believe there is no point trying. But I think we have to, even if it isn`t the perfect fit for the games current audience, we are not going to break out of that working class/ labouring demographic unless we do. League has to get with the times and that includes a complete revolution in how the game is played for children, and I`m not talking about 5-6 year olds , but all the way to 14-15`s. If we don`t the point I made in my first sentence will only continue.

Of course in relation to your first sentence a steady drip-feed of scandals doesn`t help.

 

[BrisbaneRhino]

Rocket - I've been banging on about this for years.  When I first moved here I enjoyed watching the Footy Show because I'd never seen a league-based show in England.  Over a while it wore off and I came to see it for what it was - a blokey, no-brained, amateur production which made the game and all who follow it look thick.  

That vibe stills hangs over most NRL commentators/'analysts' on 9 - an obsession with former players, no matter how bad they are.  Fittler has got a bit better but when he first started he was barely able to complete a sentence, and he's symptomatic of the kind of voice that shouldn't be anywhere near TV without years of training.  Slater started out a bit the same, but thankfully he's improved a lot very quickly.  By comparison while he may get better, JT is community radio station standard. I actually think Johns can go pretty well, as like Sterlo he knows his stuff. But too often they get sucked into the blokey banter in the commentary box.

Channel 9 needs to get over this obsession and use professional commentators.  Ditto with associated content. The 100% Footy show which currently airs is Gus Gould's soapbox, where his ultimate answer if people don't agree with him is just to say 'they don't know football'.  Its the sporting equivalent of saying God moves in mysterious ways.

Just as a small comparison, while I'm not interested in AFL at all and don't watch games, I will watch The Front Bar, because Mick Molloy and Sam Pang are funny guys who happen to be talking about AFL. 

[The Rocket]

1 hour ago, BrisbaneRhino said:

Channel 9 needs to get over this obsession and use professional commentators.

Yes I agree, that`s the point I`m trying to make in a nutshell.

I`m really hoping that Vlandy`s sees this and part of his master plan is to try and make attending League games a little bit like the crowds they get at the races, people getting dressed up for a day out at the League, not to replace the existing fans but to add a level of fashionability to attending Rugby League. But you won`t get that when you continually portray the game being for working class people. This crowd want to get away from that, that`s definitely not what they want to be associated with.

I think there are signs there that he is thinking along these lines, I heard him saying the other day that he feels like he is banging his ahead against a wall constantly having to front the media about poor player and fan behaviour. But really, the game could really do with a complete makeover in its` public face.

The comedy angle the afl use is gold, people like a laugh, it brings positive associations with their game. I don`t watch that show but I know those two characters are very clever. Tragically I think there was an attempt to do something similar by involving Roy and H.G into the commentary last year, those blokes where hilarious 20 years ago, but they went down like a lead balloon with Freddy and the boys, who had absolutely no idea what they were talking about. They disappeared pretty quickly, I heard Marty Sheargold make a League reference recently, he`s the sort of bloke the League should be targeting, funny and relatively young, appealing to that young demographic. It`s funny you bring this up though because when the `Chasing Bears` podcast first appeared on these pages and one of the blokes said they like to use local Coventry talent, usually musicians I think, I posted him and suggested maybe getting in touch with the local stand-up comedians because of exactly the reasons we just talked about.

P.S  I like Sterlo he`s definitely aspirational and Freddy has improved a lot as well, but like you said 'professional commentators".

 

[The Rocket]

On 25/05/2021 at 23:10, unapologetic pedant said:

They only occasionally release streaming figures for high-rating games. With the latest there are now three confirmed I know of.

Storm/Rabbitohs - 335k Fox, 485k Fox + Kayo, Rabbitohs/Tigers 306k Fox, 465k Fox + Kayo, Roosters/Broncos 314k Fox, 499k Fox + Kayo.

The significant fact is that (with the usual caveat, as far as I know) the NRL figures on Foxtel are roughly similar to previous years. So the Kayo streaming figures are in addition to the numbers of Foxtel viewers in 2020, 2019, 2018 which is as far back as I`ve been following them.

The same is not true this year for AFL, where a substantial drop on Foxtel is being hidden by the increase in streaming. A fact Fox spokesmen are studiously avoiding drawing attention to.

If the explanation is that AFL fans are switching from Fox to Kayo, why has that not happened for NRL?

At the end of the 2019 season League had averaged 230 000 and the afl 156 000 on Foxtel alone. Fast forward a season and a half and the League was averaging 376 000 (Foxtel+Kayo) and the afl 243 000 (Foxtel+ Kayo).

What I take from those figures is that while I believe that afl had a strong year last year with the lockdown, which probably resulted in a strong result for Foxtel and probably a weaker result so far this year off the back of those results, I doubt it would have entered negative territory or if so, a minor correction. The point I`m making with all of that is that it doesn`t leave a lot of room for any obvious large scale take-up of Kayo.

For arguments sake, let`s say fumbleball is currently averaging 170 000 and the League 250 000 that leaves a lot more room for League take-up of Kayo than aflol - as the young people say.

Happy to be corrected on those current fumbleball average Foxtel viewing figures.

[unapologetic pedant]

5 hours ago, The Rocket said:

At the end of the 2019 season League had averaged 230 000 and the afl 156 000 on Foxtel alone. Fast forward a season and a half and the League was averaging 376 000 (Foxtel+Kayo) and the afl 243 000 (Foxtel+ Kayo).

Happy to be corrected on those current fumbleball average Foxtel viewing figures.

My only databank is memory, augmented by desultory googling, so I don`t know how that 156k AFL 2019 average compares to the equivalent figure for this year or previous years.

I just have a general impression, and I think it`s reliable, that the Foxtel ratings for individual AFL games in years prior to 2021 regularly surpassed 250k, and they had many more games in 200-250k range. They sometimes outrated NRL in head-to-head Thursday or Friday night clashes. That hasn`t happened once so far this year, and they`ve had one solitary game hit exactly 250k, no game has yet gone above that figure.

Couple of hard numbers to illustrate. -

AFL opening night 2019 - 311k, 2021 - 243k.

AFL Anzac game 2019 - 315k, 2021 - 250k.

 

[unapologetic pedant]

20 hours ago, The Rocket said:

The thing that I find depressing is that Nine, despite falling ratings, make no attempt to update their coverages image and seem to think League deserves no better or that there is no point in even trying to depict a more urbane or at least upwardly mobile image. It`s like they believe there is no point trying. But I think we have to, even if it isn`t the perfect fit for the games current audience, we are not going to break out of that working class/ labouring demographic unless we do. 

I`ve said before that if I were a proponent of RU or AFL, my top priority would to keep RL out of elite schools. More than anything this will ensure the continued association of League with the less well-educated and inarticulate. Even among objective media people it perpetuates jaundiced expectations of how RL should be covered and of how the audience expect RL to be covered.

If it`s any comfort, all this is a lot worse in English RL. Working-class boys who leave school with a limited vocabulary and poor grasp of English grammar are unlikely, should they become pro RL players, to be capable of intelligently representing the game. If they`re asked for analysis, they just mutter a few disjointed banalities and platitudes. It`s the best they can manage, nobody expects anything better.

In Oz, while the school situation remains as it is, there`s a drawback to RL social mobility. A successful NRL player may regret his own poor education and aspire to something better for his children. So he uses his money to send his son to a private school. Whereupon the son will play RU. 

This better-educated young man will have a strong incentive to remain in the Union fold with all the related contacts and advantages, and the family will be lost to League. Or if he is good enough for the NRL, and wishes to return to League after his schooldays, whenever he speaks his articulacy will identify him as privately-educated, therefore an RU player, therefore not a typical RL player. NRL media will continually remind everyone of his "Rugby background".

[unapologetic pedant]

22 hours ago, The Rocket said:

 Afl has cleverly reacted to that by employing large numbers of articulate well groomed presenters that can analyse their game intelligently (even though it is ridiculous) 

Didn`t you mention somewhere AFL analysts were examining The Bounce.

After conducting my own detailed analysis of The bounce, I`ve decided a radical overhaul is due. It doesn`t have the propulsion of the overhead fling from the boundary line. The Bounce needs more bounce to the ounce.

[HawkMan]

Off topic I know but this I'm curious about, and perhaps our Australian posters will know the answer. 

Below is a clip of an Aussie soccer highlights show with impressionist Darren Farley going through his repertoire of EPL managers. The studio guys are laughing so presumably these managers are known by the public in Australia  or is it only niche EPL fans that know. What sort of ratings does a highlight show of English soccer get. I presume NRL and AFL trounce it easily. 

PS. More Darren Farley's ace impressions on AOB

[The Rocket]

29 minutes ago, HawkMan said:

What sort of ratings does a highlight show of English soccer get. I presume NRL and AFL trounce it easily. 

It`s a good question.

The EPL gets a lot of coverage on our TV news sports bulletins, often it will be third or fourth story in, sometimes even lead if there is a big game on. So it is very hard to not know something about it.

Having said that, speaking as someone who doesn`t really tune in when it`s on but I will have a look at the goals (which only ever confirms for me how lame our A-League is) so I do have a rough idea of who the big teams are. Chelsea, Man City, Man Utd but I think they`ve slipped a little ? I think a lot of people would be similar.

If one of the big teams tours here they get massive crowds so certainly a lot of people know it`s probably the best soccer competition in the world and they want to see the best.

Look to sum it up, I`d reckon a lot of people are certainly aware of the EPL, as I said it`s hard to ignore, if you asked me the numbers that actively follow it I would say it is was fairly healthy but I doubt if they replayed a whole game here it would get many viewers, maybe 20-30 000, a final, at a good time, you might triple that. There`s no highlight s package on FTA and I imagine if it was the sort of show on Pay TV that might rate around the 20-50 000 mark, I know that`s a broad range, but I make that because I think it may possibly get up to 50k, but at the lower end I`m less certain. A highlights package on FTA at a half decent time could rate around the 50 000 mark, possibly nationally a bit more.

So I`d say a lot of people are aware of it, have maybe a passing interest, but it would be a long way off the two major codes over here. I hope that helps.

[HawkMan]

29 minutes ago, The Rocket said:

 

So I`d say a lot of people are aware of it, have maybe a passing interest, but it would be a long way off the two major codes over here. I hope that helps.

Yes thanks for replying.

[unapologetic pedant]

On 27/05/2021 at 16:07, unapologetic pedant said:

I just have a general impression, and I think it`s reliable, that the Foxtel ratings for individual AFL games in years prior to 2021 regularly surpassed 250k, and they had many more games in 200-250k range. They sometimes outrated NRL in head-to-head Thursday or Friday night clashes. That hasn`t happened once so far this year, and they`ve had one solitary game hit exactly 250k, no game has yet gone above that figure.

Last night the AFL both broke the 250k barrier and narrowly outrated NRL in a head-to-head for the first time this year. 

AFL Bulldogs/Demons 253k, NRL Tigers/Dragons 248k.

They were still beaten however by the earlier NRL game Cowboys/Warriors 261k, which is high for the 6 o`clock kick-off. And the AFL game was between the top two on the ladder.

On 25/05/2021 at 14:10, unapologetic pedant said:

If the explanation is that AFL fans are switching from Fox to Kayo, why has that not happened for NRL?

To offer a possible answer to my own question, if NRL Foxtel ratings have remained steady and the streaming figures are additional viewers, perhaps all the extra NRL Kayo subscribers are refugees from Nine`s coverage. Whereas AFL fans are content with Seven`s coverage of their game.

[Sports Prophet]

So after some vaguely constructive feedback, I have revisited all rounds to date in the 2021 NRL season as we approach the bye rounds.

Now I realise defining competitiveness on Total Winning Margins (TWM) alone will have its weaknesses, but, I would say it’s the easiest way to conduct it this deep in the season without checking score lines in the 70th minute, ratifying how scores progressed in the last ten minutes, cross referencing how many winning/losing teams were a man down in the final ten minutes and then pinpointing at what minute each team used their last substitution and how many HIAs were conducted.

Back to basics, a team may score two late trys to stretch the margin, yet another may score two late ones to tighten the margin, so I am going to say, it all evens out.

Taking this on board, I am going to use a figure of 12 or less (twelve-) as the benchmark for a competitive game, being two converted trys the difference. In the interest that many may think a winning margin of 13 is still a competitive result, I have also considered figures for games won per round by 18 or less (eighteen-).

Lastly, matches won in extra time will be deemed to have a TWM of 0, as that was the score difference after 80 minutes.

Rd 1 - TWM 143 / twelve- 2 / eighteen- 5

Rd 2 - TWM 85 / twelve- 5 / eighteen- 6

Rd 3 - TWM 129 / twelve- 4 / eighteen- 4

Rd 4 - TWM 209 / twelve- 1 / eighteen- 3

Rd 5 - TWM 136 / twelve- 3 / eighteen- 4

Rd 6 - TWM 121 / twelve- 5 / eighteen - 5

Rd 7 - TWM 156 / twelve- 3 / eighteen- 4

Rd 8 - TWM 128 / twelve- 4 / eighteen- 5

Rd 9 - TWM 154 / twelve- 4 / eighteen- 5

Rd 10 - TWM 179 / twelve- 2 / eighteen- 5

Rd 11 - TWM 138 / twelve- 3 / eighteen- 5 (not including 1pt ET win for Sharks, suck ship Dragons)

Rd 12 - TWM 153 / twelve- 2 / eighteen- 4

So, by the end of Rd 12 the avg weekly TWM was 144.24. Seven of the twelve rounds came in under the avg, which tells us the outliers slightly favour increasing the avg TWM. That equates to only slightly over an avg Winning Margin of 18 points per game in 2021.

Based on competitiveness being defined by games with a TWM of twelve or less, the figures tell us that only twice in twelve rounds were the games more competitive than not, whilst more than half of the rounds to date, have seen three competitive games or less in a weekend.

Frankly, V’landys should be thankful for the furore in the public over “excessive” 10 minute sin bins because it has certainly taken the story away from how uncompetitive this 2021 season is.

After 12 rounds, I stand by my earlier comment. Last year’s NRL Grand Finalists are the only two clubs that I think can win the premiership.

[Sports Prophet]

In saying all that, I thoroughly enjoyed watching the entire 80 minutes of the Sharks bully the Titans.

I would suggest that more than half of the Titans 37 supporters probably turned off after 60 minutes though. 

[unapologetic pedant]

18 minutes ago, Sports Prophet said:

In saying all that, I thoroughly enjoyed watching the entire 80 minutes of the Sharks bully the Titans.

I would suggest that more than half of the Titans 37 supporters probably turned off after 60 minutes though. 

Exciting moment for you when Titans fan number 19 turned off.

Looked to be more people at Coffs than Sharks fans at Kogarah.

[Liverpool Rover]

44 minutes ago, Sports Prophet said:

In saying all that, I thoroughly enjoyed watching the entire 80 minutes of the Sharks bully the Titans.

I would suggest that more than half of the Titans 37 supporters probably turned off after 60 minutes though. 

This weekend has had a lot of one sided games. I think the 6 again rule is having an effect on how competitive games are.

[unapologetic pedant]

59 minutes ago, Sports Prophet said:

 After 12 rounds, I stand by my earlier comment. Last year’s NRL Grand Finalists are the only two clubs that I think can win the premiership.

In relation to the assumption games need to be competitive to be popular, all this analysis rests on a simplistic notion of what constitutes a competitive RL game or competition. And it takes no account of what type of football people want to see.

Panthers/Bulldogs, top v bottom on the ladder, was a highly competitive game, and enjoyable to watch, notwithstanding that the result wasn`t in serious doubt from the 37th minute.

[Sports Prophet]

That may be so UP, but as simplistic as you think it is, this is a very topical subject that is being discussed regularly in the media.

There are “simplistic” ideaologies on this forum other than myself that are finding the lack of competitiveness an issue. As are many others not in this forum, so while you may choose to denounce the discussion, I’m interested in continuing.

[Sports Prophet]

6 hours ago, Liverpool Rover said:

This weekend has had a lot of one sided games. I think the 6 again rule is having an effect on how competitive games are.

Without doubt LR. Teams are gaining much more ascendancy and territory.

Whilst the Sharks game was different, I would suggest the number of ruck infringements and offsides being “called” in 2021 are far greater to those in 2019.

I think it all plays into the mindset of a referee, who is less inclined to penalise for the most minor of these infringements, but more inclined to call six again.

[unapologetic pedant]

4 hours ago, Sports Prophet said:

That may be so UP, but as simplistic as you think it is, this is a very topical subject that is being discussed regularly in the media.

There are “simplistic” ideaologies on this forum other than myself that are finding the lack of competitiveness an issue. As are many others not in this forum, so while you may choose to denounce the discussion, I’m interested in continuing.

I`m trying to be as objective about my and your respective, probably contrasting, subjectivities. I like games which are open, with lots of ball movement, and have a competitive feel, irrespective of the final score. You appear to judge competitiveness purely by the scoreboard. And want Cronulla to win. And prefer another code.

The question is what factors and proclivities determine the appeal of RL for the majority. And do they differ between committed and casual?

The crowd at Newcastle on Sunday was 17k, a few thousand below par. My hunch is that the missing "fans" decided the team wasn`t worthy of their support having lost their last two games and sitting in the bottom half of the ladder. They could have gone just to enjoy a game involving their favourite team, but enjoying an event isn`t part of RL culture. As Phil Gould says "winning is all that counts". N.B. winning rather than winning margins.

On TV there`s no evidence hitherto that widening scores have affected ratings. Foxtel figures have held up well. Streaming on Kayo has continued its strong growth. There`s good reason to assume the decline of ratings on Nine is attributable to general trends and the nature of their coverage.

BTW, genuine request for information. - Is there anyone prominent in mainstream AFL media as unrelentingly dismal and negative as Phil Gould? And he`s just the worst of a gloomy bunch whose mission seems to be finding or fabricating reasons to turn off NRL. I`ve never encountered such cynicism from AFL pundits towards their game.

[BrisbaneRhino]

Gould can be positive. Mainly when talking about Origin and NSW in particular. He's also generally positive about the Panthers, primarily because he was there and helped turn the club around.

Having said that, in general he moans relentlessly.  He's the anti-Bill McLaren in commentary.