More evidence that NZ2 needs to be team #18

[Damien]

6 hours ago, AB90 said:

The new AFL deal signed for 2025 to 2031 is reported to be $643m annually which indicates that the NRL deal is below market value considering the NRL’s TV ratings are slightly better than the AFL’s.

The next TV deal will be very interesting for the game worldwide. 

I suppose we can only compare this with the next NRL TV deal. Its a little comparing apples and pears at the moment, although the existing AFL TV deal is more than the NRL one too.

I would be really disappointed if the NRL didn't get a really significant bump on the current TV deal in 2027. I think the NRL are in a really strong negotiating position and are very strong across all key metrics. The AFL going to market first certainly helps to give a figure to negotiate from. The current deal was also struck in the pandemic and the NRL and TV companies were in a weaker position than now. Financially the NRL and clubs have never been stronger to play hardball.

[AB90]

14 minutes ago, Damien said:

I suppose we can only compare this with the next NRL TV deal. Its a little comparing apples and pears at the moment, although the existing AFL TV deal is more than the NRL one too.

I would be really disappointed if the NRL didn't get a really significant bump on the current TV deal in 2027. I think the NRL are in a really strong negotiating position and are very strong across all key metrics. The AFL going to market first certainly helps to give a figure to negotiate from. The current deal was also struck in the pandemic and the NRL and TV companies were in a weaker position than now. Financially the NRL and clubs have never been stronger to play hardball.

Yeah, you’re correct in sayings it’s comparing apples for pears. The NRL is yet to negotiate their deal for that time period so comparing the TV revenue generated for the NRL in 2024 to the TV revenue generated by the AFL in 2031 is a bit redundant. 

What looks to be a bit of an error on the NRL’s part is extending the TV deal for 5 years (23 to 27) during the middle of the Covid pandemic in 2021. The AFL did the same but only extended their for deal 2 years (23 to 24).

Hey, maybe the NRL TV deal from 2028 onwards with the 18th team added giving them an extra game/time slot, will trump the AFL’s. Let’s hope so!

[AB90]

1 hour ago, Sports Prophet said:

The only evidence that comes to mind for me is the hundreds of millions more the AFL earns from its television contracts

Sure, but as Damien mentioned, comparing the AFL’s future TV deal for a time period that the NRL hasn’t yet negotiated doesn’t really achieve anything. Lets come back and revisit this in 18 months time when the NRL have finalised and announced their new 2028 to 2034 TV broadcast deal.

[Exiled Wiganer]

It doesn’t matter how much they give the inbred cheese rolling oddity “sport” (pastime surely?). Our game will continue to grow and advance on every front because ours is the greatest game. As NZ is waking up to. 

[The Rocket]

7 hours ago, AB90 said:

One of the main drivers for the increase in the 2025 AFL deal is because Channel 10 & Paramount (who own Channel 10) put an aggressive bid in for all of the AFL rights (literally everything) which significantly drove Fox & Channel 7’s price up. The NRL need that same leverage when negotiating their deals which expire in 2027.

This. Bloody Nine even put in a bid.

I think this is largely accepted. If the NRL want to monetize their sizeable viewer figure number advantage in the next broadcast deal then it is going to require either Ten/Paramount put in a bid for the complete FTA/Streaming rights, many say that this may be their only hope of survival as a television station.

Likewise whether Nine/Stan will admit the failure of their super rugby gamble and put in a bid for the same complete package. Many argue that this may be the only way that they will save Stan.

It will be only then that Foxtel will realise the danger of completing missing out on NRL and the catastrophic effect that would have on their bottom-line, probably send them out of business. Mightn`t even be able to fulfil other contracts they have signed.

Edited May 25, 2024 by The Rocket

[Exiled Wiganer]

1 hour ago, The Rocket said:

This. Bloody Nine even put in a bid.

I think this is largely accepted. If the NRL want to monetize their sizeable viewer figure number advantage in the next broadcast deal then it is going to require either Ten/Paramount put in a bid for the complete FTA/Streaming rights, many say that this may be their only hope of survival as a television station.

Likewise whether Nine/Stan will admit the failure of their super rugby gamble and put in a bid for the same complete package. Many argue that this may be the only way that they will save Stan.

It will be only then that Foxtel will realise the danger of completing missing out on NRL and the catastrophic effect that would have on their bottom-line, probably send them out of business. Mightn`t even be able to fulfil other contracts they have signed.

Someone pays to show union? Do they have Vennells’ sister as CEO? 

[Gomersall]

8 hours ago, John bird said:

Love to know what this article hidden behind a paywall says.

 

https://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/subscribe/news/1/?sourceCode=DTWEB_WRE170_a_GGL&dest=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dailytelegraph.com.au%2Fsport%2Fnrl%2Fleaked-document-reveals-nrl-and-warriors-unprecedented-mission-to-take-on-rugby-union-in-nz%2Fnews-story%2F392dbd1f1dc2bac3ea2d4a3802dee066&memtype=anonymous&mode=premium&v21=HIGH-Segment-2-SCORE

The plan of attack allegedly.

 

[Eddie]

17 hours ago, John bird said:

18. NZ2

19. Perth

20. Brisbane3

sets the NRL up beautifully for the next couple of decades and truly becomes a national competition.

Let’s see if Dolphins work before considering Brisbane 3. 

[Gomersall]

13 minutes ago, Eddie said:

Let’s see if Dolphins work before considering Brisbane 3. 

Would Brisbane support two teams at home on the same weekend in big enough numbers?

[John bird]

11 minutes ago, Eddie said:

Let’s see if Dolphins work before considering Brisbane 3. 

It’s more than working so far I’d say but I think the real test will come in terms of crowds when they hit a downturn in form and are playing games at suncorp.

[Eddie]

14 minutes ago, John bird said:

It’s more than working so far I’d say but I think the real test will come in terms of crowds when they hit a downturn in form and are playing games at suncorp.

Exactly, a season and a half in is far too early to tell. Loads of new teams in both hemispheres have had decent crowds for the first year then they’ve tailed off. 

[EggFace]

15 hours ago, Sports Prophet said:

How do we conclude NRL TV deals are below market value?

Maybe. The ARL was still markedly behind AFL before the SL war though. 

There is no doubt SL caused damage to the fabric of RL, but I don’t think the damage was irreparable, certainly not when you see how the sport is flying high at the moment.

However, I am not even certain RL gets to the position it is now without the SL war. What the war did bring is a commercial mindset which despite some great momentum building in the late 80s and early 90s, may not have forced its way into RL without the war.

Late 80's to mid 90's I say.

[unapologetic pedant]

2 hours ago, Gomersall said:

The plan of attack allegedly.

The DT article covers a meeting Cameron George had with Andrew Abdo. Contains generous helpings of aspirational waffle. Specifics are sparse. These quotes give a flavour -

"It details an action, strategy and investment plan that George believes will change the entire landscape of RL in NZ and benefit all 17 clubs"

"The schoolboy competition that I'm vigorously chasing, through funding domestically and also the NRL, is that any number of schools will participate in it, so that when a Pacific Island expansion strategy is put in place, the investment in the school systems and programs in NZ will be a very big answer to what they're trying to achieve"

Essentially a pitch for more grass roots funding in NZ.

[unapologetic pedant]

13 hours ago, AB90 said:

One of the main drivers for the increase in the 2025 AFL deal is because Channel 10 & Paramount (who own Channel 10) put an aggressive bid in for all of the AFL rights (literally everything) which significantly drove Fox & Channel 7’s price up. The NRL need that same leverage when negotiating their deals which expire in 2027.

I don't believe AFL regarded Ten/Paramount as a serious bid. Whether Ten and Paramount did is anyone's guess. There was never the slightest chance AFL would move away from Seven or Fox at this stage. The execs at both those companies, particularly Seven, are personally invested in AFL long-term success. They want Fumble to grow bigger audiences in NSW/QLD.

[unapologetic pedant]

15 hours ago, Sports Prophet said:

What I don’t buy into is that the Murdoch family are AFL loving, League despising individuals who would gift AFL hundreds of millions a year more than their business interests require them to over another.

Press conference 2015, Rupert Murdoch -

"We have always preferred Aussie Rules"

[Damien]

8 minutes ago, unapologetic pedant said:

Press conference 2015, Rupert Murdoch -

"We have always preferred Aussie Rules"

That was purely vindictive though on the part of Murdoch because Grant had the audacity to sign a FTA deal with Nine. He even overpaid by a couple of hundred million on the AFL deal to stick to fingers up at Rugby League.

[John bird]

1 hour ago, Eddie said:

Exactly, a season and a half in is far too early to tell. Loads of new teams in both hemispheres have had decent crowds for the first year then they’ve tailed off. 

It would be interesting to see how the dolphins react if crowds dip in Brisbane for a sustained period by switching more home games to Kayo stadium and maybe even the upgraded Sunshine Coast Stadium .

[John bird]

2 hours ago, Gomersall said:

Would Brisbane support two teams at home on the same weekend in big enough numbers?

Probably depends on a lot of factors but I would say yes.

[Anita Bath]

As I have said previously a third ‘brisbane’ team would require a new stadium. Suncorp already hosts four teams across the footy codes and that doesnt include womens teams and other events, concerts etc. They are also at the limit of events attracting 30,000 crowds under a local bye law.

There was talk of a ‘boutique’ stadium being built at the exhibition ground to host AFL and crickets while the Gabba was rebuilt for the Olympics but the Gabba project has been canned after much local resistance and a concerned state government over the cost. Current plan is to redevelop the old commonwealth games stadium for the olympics which would provide a second potential NRL site (broncos previously played there) but that is not until 2032.

[Damien]

10 minutes ago, Anita Bath said:

As I have said previously a third ‘brisbane’ team would require a new stadium. Suncorp already hosts four teams across the footy codes and that doesnt include womens teams and other events, concerts etc. They are also at the limit of events attracting 30,000 crowds under a local bye law.

There was talk of a ‘boutique’ stadium being built at the exhibition ground to host AFL and crickets while the Gabba was rebuilt for the Olympics but the Gabba project has been canned after much local resistance and a concerned state government over the cost. Current plan is to redevelop the old commonwealth games stadium for the olympics which would provide a second potential NRL site (broncos previously played there) but that is not until 2032.

Limits have been changed before at Suncorp. The way the Queenslaand Reds are going Ballymore may well become a better fit for them anyway.

[Sports Prophet]

7 hours ago, unapologetic pedant said:

Press conference 2015, Rupert Murdoch -

"We have always preferred Aussie Rules"

Taken very much out of context which you will fully know.

7 hours ago, unapologetic pedant said:

I don't believe AFL regarded Ten/Paramount as a serious bid. Whether Ten and Paramount did is anyone's guess. There was never the slightest chance AFL would move away from Seven or Fox at this stage. The execs at both those companies, particularly Seven, are personally invested in AFL long-term success. They want Fumble to grow bigger audiences in NSW/QLD.

Very true, Channel 7 and AFL are long term partners and have ambition for sustained growth nationally, especially in Sydney and Brisbane. Personally invested, don’t know but it wouldn’t surprise me.

Back to NZ, for me it has always been the most important destination for team 18, however it would be a shame to wait any later than 2018 for Perth and team 20.

 

[Anita Bath]

3 hours ago, Damien said:

Limits have been changed before at Suncorp. The way the Queenslaand Reds are going Ballymore may well become a better fit for them anyway.

Reds struggle to get 30,000 a season never mind a game so that wont affect the big game limits. 12000 there last night. They wont move to ballymore because its a hell of a place to get to. Parking awful, public transport awful. The 12000 would quickly become 1200, particularly with the super rugby being almost exclusively night games.

[John bird]

7 hours ago, Anita Bath said:

As I have said previously a third ‘brisbane’ team would require a new stadium. Suncorp already hosts four teams across the footy codes and that doesnt include womens teams and other events, concerts etc. They are also at the limit of events attracting 30,000 crowds under a local bye law.

There was talk of a ‘boutique’ stadium being built at the exhibition ground to host AFL and crickets while the Gabba was rebuilt for the Olympics but the Gabba project has been canned after much local resistance and a concerned state government over the cost. Current plan is to redevelop the old commonwealth games stadium for the olympics which would provide a second potential NRL site (broncos previously played there) but that is not until 2032.

If the Brisbane tigers get the nod I wonder if their home ground langlands park could receive some funding for expansion from around 4k to 15k?

[Sports Prophet]

30 minutes ago, John bird said:

If the Brisbane tigers get the nod I wonder if their home ground langlands park could receive some funding for expansion from around 4k to 15k?

For what purpose though? Suncorp is a fabulous venue. It would all depend on their target supporter base I suppose. The Olympics will bring some fabulous infrastructure including public transport as well as an upgrade to QEII. In saying that, I expect QEII’s future will remain as an athletics capable venue.

[John bird]

18 minutes ago, Sports Prophet said:

For what purpose though? Suncorp is a fabulous venue. It would all depend on their target supporter base I suppose. The Olympics will bring some fabulous infrastructure including public transport as well as an upgrade to QEII. In saying that, I expect QEII’s future will remain as an athletics capable venue.

As an alternate home ground like Kayo Stadium for the dolphins.

they could play the big crowd drawing games at suncorp and the rest at langlands.