Olney defeats Goldsmith in Richmond Park by-election

[RidingPie]

Greens, whilst not standing themselves, were split between supporting Labour or the Lib Dems.

Bloody hell id hate to have seen labours total without the greens!

[John Drake]

I think the quitters overestimate the gains from the leave vote. The reason they have such a commanding lead isn't because of brexit. It's because the opposition is terrible, but then there's a whole thread on that so I'll leave it there.

 

I agree with this.

 

The Tories will hit the buffers when it becomes apparent what kind of Brexit they are going to deliver. Whatever 'flavour' it eventually is, it will be impossible to please the multivarious strands of opinion that briefly coalesced under the 'Leave' banner in the referendum. They all want different things and right now, they all think they're going to get exactly what they want. May has an impossible task ahead. It's why she's fudging as long as possible and saying nothing of any substance on Brexit.

 

The tragedy for 'my side' politically is they are in no position to benefit, as the Labour party is in disarray. Which gives the Lib Dems huge opportunities in seats like Richmond Park to come back from the dead, as they have just done.

 

I'm glad Goldsmith lost. He once seemed like that rare beast, an honourable Tory, but he lost that mantle with me when he went down the Sadiq Khan = Muslim = Terrorist Sympathiser line of attack in the London Mayoral election. To be as fair as I can to him with regard to causing this by-election, he did say some time ago that if the government ever approved the third runway at Heathrow, he would resign and fight a by-election over it, so he was only carrying out a previous promise. That it has come back to bite him on the bum is probably something he didn't bargain for, but it is a brave person who predicts the outcome of any election in advance these days.

[longboard]

I think it is easy to over interpret the by election result vis a vis the referendum result etc. The constituency had been held by the Lib Dems in the past. The Tories were in a bit of a cleft stick with Goldsmith resigning and standing as an independent, as putting up a candidate would have split the conservative vote. Some voters may well have been a bit disgruntled with Goldsmith for forcing the by-election. He'd also already shown that he had other ambitions by standing for London Mayor.

 

The Tories provided a good opportunity for the Lib Dems who took advantage...

 

The Labour candidate lost his deposit. 

[RidingPie]

The thing is though we shouldn't make light of how unique the decision was for the conservatives not to field a candidate. Wasn't it the first time something like this has happened in over 40 years!

I think Goldsmith's jeasture lost some legitimacy when both the Conservatives and UKIP backed him. It made it an empty gesture.

[Just Browny]

The thing is though we shouldn't make light of how unique the decision was for the conservatives not to field a candidate. Wasn't it the first time something like this has happened in over 40 years!

I think Goldsmith's jeasture lost some legitimacy when both the Conservatives and UKIP backed him. It made it an empty gesture.

I think it was the first time they had not put up a candidate in a seat they held since the 60s. Obviously the last by-election in which they didn't put up a candidate was a couple of months back in Batley.

[bowes]

I think the quitters overestimate the gains from the leave vote. The reason they have such a commanding lead isn't because of brexit. It's because the opposition is terrible, but then there's a whole thread on that so I'll leave it there.

That is a major factor but also the geographical spread of leave and remain votes needs taking into account. Most remain votes were from massive majorities in London and Scotland whereas most of the country voted to leave

[RidingPie]

Agreed but now promises like £350 million a week to the NHS have evaporated I think people are starting to see brexit for what it was. I think (and I admit to only lite evidence for this) people saw it as "giving the establishment a kick" and now they're seeing that it was really "giving the centrist conservatives a kicking" and has led to a governmental lurch to the right many of the labour voters who voted leave are, at least nervous.

[GeordieSaint]

That is a major factor but also the geographical spread of leave and remain votes needs taking into account. Most remain votes were from massive majorities in London and Scotland whereas most of the country voted to leave

There were still big numbers of people within all areas who voted to remain. Yes they were the minority across many places but they were still huge numbers of people; millions voted to remain in the north and that fact should not be forgotten. Yep, they lost and most respect that; but it's still a huge number of potentially disenfranchised people and that shouldn't be forgotten. This country has literally been split right down the middle in all of its communities.

[Saintslass]

He had a majority of 23,000 and the full support of the Tory party machine on the ground - up to and including several MPs turning out to canvas for him.  Ukip also endorsed him and the Greens, whilst not standing themselves, were split between supporting Labour or the Lib Dems.

 

He had every chance and came very close to winning.

So?  I explained my reasoning in my previous post.  Having lots of people campaigning for you doesn't mean anything if what you are campaigning for isn't relevant to the moment.  His message wasn't relevant because the LibDems were clever and turned it into a referendum re-run.  In Richmond he didn't stand much of a chance given his position and 70% of the voters' position.

[Saintslass]

There were still big numbers of people within all areas who voted to remain. Yes they were the minority across many places but they were still huge numbers of people; millions voted to remain in the north and that fact should not be forgotten. Yep, they lost and most respect that; but it's still a huge number of potentially disenfranchised people and that shouldn't be forgotten. This country has literally been split right down the middle in all of its communities.

Not all areas, no.  You don't have a 75% vote for leave and have a 'big number' voting for remain, for example.

[Saintslass]

Agreed but now promises like £350 million a week to the NHS have evaporated I think people are starting to see brexit for what it was. I think (and I admit to only lite evidence for this) people saw it as "giving the establishment a kick" and now they're seeing that it was really "giving the centrist conservatives a kicking" and has led to a governmental lurch to the right many of the labour voters who voted leave are, at least nervous.

Dream on!

[RidingPie]

Dream on!

Are you suggesting I dreamt the £350 million a week to the NHS pledge?

I've had a lot of friends who voted leave for that reason tell me they regret it. Anecdotal I admit but don't dismiss it out of hand. When the brexit cuts start to swing things will change even more.

[Saintslass]

Are you suggesting I dreamt the £350 million a week to the NHS pledge?

I've had a lot of friends who voted leave for that reason tell me they regret it. Anecdotal I admit but don't dismiss it out of hand. When the brexit cuts start to swing things will change even more.

The 'I've got friends ...' argument really isn't an argument.

 

Frankly, if anyone voted to leave the EU solely because they thought £350 million was going to go to the NHS then either they weren't that bright or they didn't do much reflecting in the weeks running up to the vote.  How did they think everything else was going to be funded?  Via the magic money tree?

[gingerjon]

The 'I've got friends ...' argument really isn't an argument.

 

Frankly, if anyone voted to leave the EU solely because they thought £350 million was going to go to the NHS then either they weren't that bright or they didn't do much reflecting in the weeks running up to the vote.  How did they think everything else was going to be funded?  Via the magic money tree?

 

Again, it's nice to find areas of mutual agreement.

 

Leave voters were living in a fantasy land if they believed the claims of the official Leave campaign.

[gingerjon]

 if what you are campaigning for isn't relevant to the moment. 

 

He was campaigning very specifically on the Heathrow expansion (which he is against) but agreeing with every other government policy.

 

I can't see how that's not relevant to the moment.

[bowes]

There won't be an EU to want to remain in by 2020 anyway at the rate of current developments on the continent

[RidingPie]

The 'I've got friends ...' argument really isn't an argument.

Frankly, if anyone voted to leave the EU solely because they thought £350 million was going to go to the NHS then either they weren't that bright or they didn't do much reflecting in the weeks running up to the vote. How did they think everything else was going to be funded? Via the magic money tree?

I did point out it was anecdotal!

Also if the £350 million a week to the NHS wasn't a Key promise why was it emblazoned on the battle bus. Your casual dismissal of it speaks volumes.

[bowes]

Agreed but now promises like £350 million a week to the NHS have evaporated I think people are starting to see brexit for what it was. I think (and I admit to only lite evidence for this) people saw it as "giving the establishment a kick" and now they're seeing that it was really "giving the centrist conservatives a kicking" and has led to a governmental lurch to the right many of the labour voters who voted leave are, at least nervous.

All the polls strongly indicate no change in position on the EU but a large swing from Labour to Conservatives amongst white working class and lower middle class people outside the south. The government have moved sharply to the right on immigration but ever so slightly to the left on the economy (not as much as they should have IMO) so this is hardly going to put people off

[GeordieSaint]

Not all areas, no. You don't have a 75% vote for leave and have a 'big number' voting for remain, for example.

I take your point about the word 'all' but few areas on either side had such a split and it also depends on the size of the voting area. South Holland which I think was around 75% has a much smaller population (less than 50k) than let's say Liverpool, Southampton or Shropshire. Nearly 40k voters wanted to remain in St Helens for example or 110k in Sheffield or 50k in Southampton or 80k in Shropshire. They are big numbers of people. Yes it doesn't mean anything to the result but in many areas, there are big numbers of potentially disenfranchised voters. That's indisputable and replicated across the entire county.

[gingerjon]

There won't be an EU to want to remain in by 2020 anyway at the rate of current developments on the continent

 

Bowes earlier: http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/brexiter-not-happy-until-europe-a-smouldering-ruin-20161117117270

[bowes]

Bowes earlier: http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/brexiter-not-happy-until-europe-a-smouldering-ruin-20161117117270

Depends if you think Portugal,Italy,Greece and Spain will continue to vote for endless recession and crippling unemployment rates forever

[Just Browny]

Bowes earlier: http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/brexiter-not-happy-until-europe-a-smouldering-ruin-20161117117270

 

Scarily, many of the hardcore Brexiters see it as right and proper that Europe is at constant war with itself. As far as they are concerned, 71 years of peace is a breakdown of the proper order and it is about time the Frogs and the Hun gave us a proper reason to hate them again.

[GeordieSaint]

South Holland which I think was around 75% has a much smaller population (less than 50k) than let's say Liverpool, Southampton or Shropshire

I'll caveat that particular part Saintslass as well considering I still consider 13k people a big number.

[gingerjon]

Depends if you think Portugal,Italy,Greece and Spain will continue to vote for endless recession and crippling unemployment rates forever

 

Given the way votes are going everywhere right now I think we can all agree that not every election is decided by what's in the best interests of the people voting.

[gingerjon]

Scarily, many of the hardcore Brexiters see it as right and proper that Europe is at constant war with itself. As far as they are concerned, 71 years of peace is a breakdown of the proper order and it is about time the Frogs and the Hun gave us a proper reason to hate them again.

 

Certainly seems to be the only way any of them can actually view global politics.  The idea that countries and people might work together, and compromise, to avoid unnecessary conflict and division is somewhat alien.

 

EDIT

Do bear in mind we've only had peace because Great Britain has a Queen.  Martyn said so.