Olney defeats Goldsmith in Richmond Park by-election

[Saintslass]

The risk is there; same with the prospects of other parties like the Lib Dems. Despite having a pretty woeful 6 months since the referendum, the UKIP vote seems reasonably consistent and if JohnM's link was correct yesterday are about to significantly increase their share of the vote in the Sleaford By-Election next week. Corbyn and Labour would be foolish not to treat UKIP as a real threat in many working class communities just as the Tories have found out in Witney and Richmond Park with the Lib Dems.

Richmond Park was Lib Deb prior to 2010.  It's one of those places which switches between Tory and Lib Dem.  Hardly new. 

[Bob8]

Richmond Park was Lib Deb prior to 2010.  It's one of those places which switches between Tory and Lib Dem.  Hardly new. 

Indeed.  There are two things that I can see that may have led to the defeat, his anti-Muslim nastiness in the mayoral campaign and his anti-EU campaigning.

[GeordieSaint]

Agreed. I was just thinking things aren't so cut and dried politically these days. Corbyn is a millstone around Labour's neck as far as I can see in may parts of the north.

They absolutely aren't but we should also expect the status quo to remain the same no matter what. The rise of the SNP and the political shocks in 2016 are examples of how people shouldn't be complacent.

[GeordieSaint]

Richmond Park was Lib Deb prior to 2010. It's one of those places which switches between Tory and Lib Dem. Hardly new.

The loss of a 23k majority in little over a year is something I'd suggest is new in English politics; it doesn't happen very often as far as I am aware.

[The Future is League]

The loss of a 23k majority in little over a year is something I'd suggest is very new in English politics.

And very worrying for the Tories i would have thought and not good news for Labour either.

[Tommygilf]

There've been 40 years of the Mail, the Sun, The Star and the Express, running mainly spurious anti Europe stories. And as referendum day approached they became more and more shrill and manic, screaming every day about the hoards of immigrants that were about to descend on us.  It was bound to have an effect.  And it did.

 

Alas, the 'shrill' 'manic' 'screaming' of punishment budgets, house prices falling by 10% and being cast adrift from the rest of the world did butter no parsnips by contrast.

 

What were you voting for incidentally?

 

I ask only because even the handful of Leave voters on here seem to have very different opinions on what a satisfactory Brexit would look like.

 

And even some Leave politicians seem a bit confused as to what was actually on the ballot.  Some are even claiming there was some kind of question about immigration on there.

 

Personally, I voted leave because I saw the EU as a restriction on independent freedom and international trade/co-operation (with the world outside of EU member states). I don't have issue with the concept of a European community in the informal sense, but the EU I saw growing (and thus the trend I could see continuing) was that of ever closer union and a federalising of Europe. I wasn't convinced by the arguments that Britain would somehow be exempt from this, and in fact, if we were going to be exempt, I didn't see the point of being a second tier member. This feeling then grew to the point where I didn't see the need for a political union to organise trade between democratic nations, who all have different aims in the world. Surely we can co-operate cordially.

 

As an aside, I also didn't like how a commitment to neo-liberalism and privatisation was part of EU constitutional literature. Seems to go against the idea that democratic states can pursue independent economic and political policy.

 

The institution of the EU therefore did not sit well with me, and as I could not say I would vote to join it, I would therefore not choose to remain in it. I may not have known exactly, as several political remainers have said, 'what I was voting for', but I certainly knew what I was not voting for.

 

Not all the reasons why but basically sums up my feelings.

[westlondonfan]

And very worrying for the Tories i would have thought and not good news for Labour either.

For the reasons stated above I don't think it makes much difference to Labour either way.

[Trojan]

Alas, the 'shrill' 'manic' 'screaming' of punishment budgets, house prices falling by 10% and being cast adrift from the rest of the world did butter no parsnips by contrast.

 

 

Personally, I voted leave because I saw the EU as a restriction on independent freedom and international trade/co-operation (with the world outside of EU member states). I don't have issue with the concept of a European community in the informal sense, but the EU I saw growing (and thus the trend I could see continuing) was that of ever closer union and a federalising of Europe. I wasn't convinced by the arguments that Britain would somehow be exempt from this, and in fact, if we were going to be exempt, I didn't see the point of being a second tier member. This feeling then grew to the point where I didn't see the need for a political union to organise trade between democratic nations, who all have different aims in the world. Surely we can co-operate cordially.

 

As an aside, I also didn't like how a commitment to neo-liberalism and privatisation was part of EU constitutional literature. Seems to go against the idea that democratic states can pursue independent economic and political policy.

 

The institution of the EU therefore did not sit well with me, and as I could not say I would vote to join it, I would therefore not choose to remain in it. I may not have known exactly, as several political remainers have said, 'what I was voting for', but I certainly knew what I was not voting for.

 

Not all the reasons why but basically sums up my feelings.

The EU has been the saviour of democracy.  Membership of the EU is what helped put an end to a reversion to Facsism In Spain and by example possibly Portugal too.  The same could be said for Greece/  It was the Major government that proposed acceptance of the former Soviet satellite countries like Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic.  If our departure causes the EU to disintegrate then these countries will once again fall prey to Russia.  

The right wing hate the EU for bringing fairness to work practices and enhanced health and safety.  The construction industry where until quite recently I spent my working life is far safer.  In the 60's and 70's it was nearly as dangerous on sites as it was down the pit.

Once the protection of the EU and European courts are gone, expect the right wing zealots in the Tory party to gain control and rip up workers' protection and rights.  It won't happen overnight, but I feel sure it will happen. 

Murdoch's performance over Wapping shows how much he values his workforce, and indicates why he and his papers are gung ho for us leaving.

As for the punishment budgets, they've been put off for now.  Wait and see until Brexit is accomplished and the Tories can to what they like!

[RidingPie]

About the punishment budget. Had Osborn been in and continuing the same sort of austerity we'd have had it would have happened. Look at the amount of extra borrowing we're doing because of brexit, had we stayed on the track he set us on that extra borrowing would be cuts!

As it is they're trying to delay that or there would be riots.

[Bob8]

The EU has been the saviour of democracy.  Membership of the EU is what helped put an end to a reversion to Facsism In Spain and by example possibly Portugal too.  The same could be said for Greece/  It was the Manor government that proposed acceptance of the former Soviet satellite countries like Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic.  If our departure causes the EU to disintegrate then these countries will once again fall prey to Russia.  

The right wing hate the EU for bringing fairness to work practices and enhanced health and safety.  The construction industry where until quite recently I spent my working life is far safer.  In the 60's and 70's it was nearly as dangerous on sites as it was down the pit.

Once the protection of the EU and European courts are gone, expect the right wing zealots in the Tory party to gain control and rip up workers' protection and rights.  It won't happen overnight, but I feel sure it will happen. 

Murdoch's performance over Wapping shows how much he values his workforce, and indicates why he and his papers are gung ho for us leaving.

As for the punishment budgets, they've been put off for now.  Wait and see until Brexit is accomplished and the Tories can to what they like!

Western European democracy generally getting its act together in contrast to dictatorships (left and right) saw democracy spread across Europe.  NATO stabilzed peace.

 

The rest I accept.

[ckn]

Western European democracy generally getting its act together in contrast to dictatorships (left and right) saw democracy spread across Europe. NATO stabilzed peace.

The rest I accept.

But once the dictatorships collapsed and fledgling democracies started the carrot of the EU helped the Eastern European states stabilise and gave them concrete goals and targets to work towards. The EU didn't bring the Warsaw Pact dictatorships down but did go a long way to making the new democracies now in the EU stable.

[Bedford Roughyed]

But once the dictatorships collapsed and fledgling democracies started the carrot of the EU helped the Eastern European states stabilise and gave them concrete goals and targets to work towards. The EU didn't bring the Warsaw Pact dictatorships down but did go a long way to making the new democracies now in the EU stable.

And the UK was one of the 'pushers' to expand east...

[Bob8]

But once the dictatorships collapsed and fledgling democracies started the carrot of the EU helped the Eastern European states stabilise and gave them concrete goals and targets to work towards. The EU didn't bring the Warsaw Pact dictatorships down but did go a long way to making the new democracies now in the EU stable.

I agree it helped.  However, it was a contributory factor.  My objection is akin to when the previous Pope was credited with bringing down communism.

[Tommygilf]

The EU has been the saviour of democracy.  Membership of the EU is what helped put an end to a reversion to Facsism In Spain and by example possibly Portugal too.  The same could be said for Greece/  It was the Major government that proposed acceptance of the former Soviet satellite countries like Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic.  If our departure causes the EU to disintegrate then these countries will once again fall prey to Russia.  

The right wing hate the EU for bringing fairness to work practices and enhanced health and safety.  The construction industry where until quite recently I spent my working life is far safer.  In the 60's and 70's it was nearly as dangerous on sites as it was down the pit.

Once the protection of the EU and European courts are gone, expect the right wing zealots in the Tory party to gain control and rip up workers' protection and rights.  It won't happen overnight, but I feel sure it will happen. 

Murdoch's performance over Wapping shows how much he values his workforce, and indicates why he and his papers are gung ho for us leaving.

As for the punishment budgets, they've been put off for now.  Wait and see until Brexit is accomplished and the Tories can to what they like!

 

I appreciate that you think this is a possibility. However, if the government of the day was elected on a manifesto that included removing or changing these rights, then that would be enacted as part of democratically legitimate exercise; just as re-nationalising of railways would contradict various EU directives and treaties committing member states to privatisation. A supra-national body saying that it wouldn't be allowed is akin to the USA telling Castro's Cuba or Chavez's Venezuela that it couldn't nationalise various industries just because they don't ideologically approve. Unfortunately national democracy allows for these things. (I do actually support the idea of a written constitution by the way, just that it should be the British Constitution for Britain, German for Germany, Italian for Italy, Croatian for Croatia and so on).

 

But once the dictatorships collapsed and fledgling democracies started the carrot of the EU helped the Eastern European states stabilise and gave them concrete goals and targets to work towards. The EU didn't bring the Warsaw Pact dictatorships down but did go a long way to making the new democracies now in the EU stable.

 

 

And the UK was one of the 'pushers' to expand east...

 

The concept of the UK (and by extension Western Europe and the USA) 'setting targets' ​for nations sounds an awful lot like they were trying to turn these former Eastern Bloc nations into versions of themselves for the betterment of these nations. Interestingly, this was also the same moral argument used for (western) European colonialism all over the world. It belies a superiority complex that implies our versions of government are brilliant - a point which has been questioned most recently by the Brexit vote, the rise of two anti-establishment candidates in Austria's presidential election and the same in France, growing discontent with Chancellor Merkel, and, of course, Donald Trump being elected US president. I'm not for one moment considering that any dictatorship would be better than what we have going on now, but interesting to consider this approach towards the newer members of the EU and the relationship between the EU and the rest of the world.

 

It is my view that we should treat nations as equals, accepting that we are both going to try promote our own national interests, and leave it at that. Interventionism by one nation (or a group of nations) in the affairs of another nation would not be welcomed in the west and so should not be exported anywhere else. Co-operate cordially, allow business to establish links by a two way process, and carry on as independent sovereign political entities.

[longboard]

Richmond Park was Lib Deb prior to 2010.  It's one of those places which switches between Tory and Lib Dem.  Hardly new. 

 

 

Indeed.  There are two things that I can see that may have led to the defeat, his anti-Muslim nastiness in the mayoral campaign and his anti-EU campaigning.

 

I'd say there are more than two.

 

Additionally:-

 

Thirdly. His stance of promised resignation and the perception among the electorate that it had absolutely no relevance concerning whether the additional runway is approved in parliament or not. His behaviour could be said to look like empty grandstanding by someone who will not suffer damaging consequences as a result of his supposedly principled stand; that is not to state that he didn't believe in his avowed belief.

 

Fourthly. It is the far from an unusual swing away from the government in power, particularly when there are economic difficulties. Some voters will have picked up that the Prime Minister et al appeared to have announced a change in direction from Cameron's and Osborne's only way to ensure recovery from the recession policies...

 

Fifthly. The arrangement wherein UKIP  and the Tories didn't stand against him looked a bit too cosy and provided something for voters to kick against.

 

Dave and his friends haven't helped the Conservatives in this byelection............ 

[ckn]

The concept of the UK (and by extension Western Europe and the USA) 'setting targets' ​for nations sounds an awful lot like they were trying to turn these former Eastern Bloc nations into versions of themselves for the betterment of these nations. Interestingly, this was also the same moral argument used for (western) European colonialism all over the world. It belies a superiority complex that implies our versions of government are brilliant - a point which has been questioned most recently by the Brexit vote, the rise of two anti-establishment candidates in Austria's presidential election and the same in France, growing discontent with Chancellor Merkel, and, of course, Donald Trump being elected US president. I'm not for one moment considering that any dictatorship would be better than what we have going on now, but interesting to consider this approach towards the newer members of the EU and the relationship between the EU and the rest of the world.

 

It is my view that we should treat nations as equals, accepting that we are both going to try promote our own national interests, and leave it at that. Interventionism by one nation (or a group of nations) in the affairs of another nation would not be welcomed in the west and so should not be exported anywhere else. Co-operate cordially, allow business to establish links by a two way process, and carry on as independent sovereign political entities.

I disagree.  The EU has minimum standards for entry, other countries have a simple choice, go for it or don't.  For example, Turkey are publicly pro-EU and say they want to join but refuse to put the effort into meeting those minimum standards therefore will not get in (note, no qualification, it's an absolute that they will not get in unless there's an earth-shattering change in the country).  That's wildly different from the forced cultural change we imposed throughout the world in British Empire days.  The Eastern European countries thought that doing the changes necessary to meet those standards was worth the effort and the slight loss of sovereignty, that also had a pleasant side-effect of making it far harder for them to back-slide into, first, Russia-style democracy-in-name-only and then into some sort of dictatorship.

[getdownmonkeyman]

Richmond Park was Lib Deb prior to 2010.  It's one of those places which switches between Tory and Lib Dem.  Hardly new.

Losing 23,000 votes in eighteen months is not switching.

[Trojan]

I appreciate that you think this is a possibility. However, if the government of the day was elected on a manifesto that included removing or changing these rights, then that would be enacted as part of democratically legitimate exercise; just as re-nationalising of railways would contradict various EU directives and treaties committing member states to privatisation. A supra-national body saying that it wouldn't be allowed is akin to the USA telling Castro's Cuba or Chavez's Venezuela that it couldn't nationalise various industries just because they don't ideologically approve. Unfortunately national democracy allows for these things. (I do actually support the idea of a written constitution by the way, just that it should be the British Constitution for Britain, German for Germany, Italian for Italy, Croatian for Croatia and so on).

 

 

 

 

We already know what some Tories think of workers' rights.  They'd be  happy to remove any employment protection.  They've said as much.  It wouldn't need an election. It hasn't needed an election for the Tories to renege on "the plan" for eliminating the deficit on which they were re-elected.  That's the reason we haven't had a punishing budget, because the government has abandoned Osborne's plan to be in surplus.

Once we're out all bets will be off.  It'll be capitalism with a capital C red in tooth and claw and the devil take the hindmost.  That's what the likes of Peter Bone, Philip Davies and the rest of that crew believe in. That's why they're so keen to be out.  They find subtle ways to introduce these policies, but introduce them they will. These are the Tories for gods sake!

[Tommygilf]

I disagree.  The EU has minimum standards for entry, other countries have a simple choice, go for it or don't.  For example, Turkey are publicly pro-EU and say they want to join but refuse to put the effort into meeting those minimum standards therefore will not get in (note, no qualification, it's an absolute that they will not get in unless there's an earth-shattering change in the country).  That's wildly different from the forced cultural change we imposed throughout the world in British Empire days.  The Eastern European countries thought that doing the changes necessary to meet those standards was worth the effort and the slight loss of sovereignty, that also had a pleasant side-effect of making it far harder for them to back-slide into, first, Russia-style democracy-in-name-only and then into some sort of dictatorship.

 

Have you investigated the current Human Rights abuses against the Romany community in Romania? Literally 3rd world scenes of people picking through rubbish dumps because they are actively disenfranchised and made 2nd rate citizens. These minimum standards seem to be as much smoke and mirrors akin to the RFLs criteria for awarding SL licences: "we promise we will improve honestly".

 

On the second point, is it? The British Empire, from an economic point of view, was about monopolising access to the markets certain areas and nations for British corporate interest. The similarity between saying to the eastern European nations that they must open up their economy and resources (including perhaps most importantly, it people) to the more economically developed west, and the colonialism of the European empires shouldn't be ignored.

 

The EU has a monopoly therefore for these nations, as they offer the only alternative to the Russian domination you describe; how can they choose otherwise?

[Tommygilf]

We already know what some Tories think of workers' rights.  They'd be  happy to remove any employment protection.  They've said as much.  It wouldn't need an election. It hasn't needed an election for the Tories to renege on "the plan" for eliminating the deficit on which they were re-elected.  That's the reason we haven't had a punishing budget, because the government has abandoned Osborne's plan to be in surplus.

Once we're out all bets will be off.  It'll be capitalism with a capital C red in tooth and claw and the devil take the hindmost.  That's what the likes of Peter Bone, Philip Davies and the rest of that crew believe in. That's why they're so keen to be out.  They find subtle ways to introduce these policies, but introduce them they will. These are the Tories for gods sake!

 

Indeed, if people vote for the tories in 2020 then we'll be able to know these policies were voted for in a manifesto. One could just as easily levy the claim that the labour party want to completely remove free market economics and nationalise our soup (also a protection lost by leaving the EU). Personally I have faith in the UKs long history of dominant moderate politics that neither will totally win.

[Trojan]

Indeed, if people vote for the tories in 2020 then we'll be able to know these policies were voted for in a manifesto. One could just as easily levy the claim that the labour party want to completely remove free market economics and nationalise our soup (also a protection lost by leaving the EU). Personally I have faith in the UKs long history of dominant moderate politics that neither will totally win.

Do you really think they'll say as much in their manifesto?  Did they say in 2010 that they were going to mess with the NHS?  But they've done it.  People will be told that they voted for it whether they did or not. The EU was the only way to block the Tory extremists from having their way, and soon it'll be irrelevant.

[bowes]

Do you really think they'll say as much in their manifesto? Did they say in 2010 that they were going to mess with the NHS? But they've done it. People will be told that they voted for it whether they did or not. The EU was the only way to block the Tory extremists from having their way, and soon it'll be irrelevant.

Nonsense. After 6 years of Conservative government virtually all employment rights are well in excess of EU minimums and since the referendum the only talk on employment rights has been how we can extend them to the self employed and those on zero hours contracts and someone that worked for the last Labour government has been hired to do it

[bowes]

I agree it helped. However, it was a contributory factor. My objection is akin to when the previous Pope was credited with bringing down communism.

I'd argue that the EU trying to enforce rules on Poland and Hungary is a large factor in them electing nationalist governments. Of course there is more than an element of selfishness in those countries wanting the hand outs and emigration opportunities but not the responsibilities that come with EU membership. Estonia and Latvia have an apartheid system with regards to the Russian minority in their country and seem to get away with it

[Griff9of13]

Do you really think they'll say as much in their manifesto? Did they say in 2010 that they were going to mess with the NHS? But they've done it. People will be told that they voted for it whether they did or not. The EU was the only way to block the Tory extremists from having their way, and soon it'll be irrelevant.

They actually did the opposite, campaigning before the election with the slogan "No top down reorganisation of the NHS", only to implement the £3bn Lansley reform almost as soon as they gained office.

[Trojan]

Nonsense. After 6 years of Conservative government virtually all employment rights are well in excess of EU minimums and since the referendum the only talk on employment rights has been how we can extend them to the self employed and those on zero hours contracts and someone that worked for the last Labour government has been hired to do it

They've already increased the period of employment before you can claim unfair dismissal from two years to one.  They've removed legal aid from employment cases, they're looking at making strikes almost illegal.  And that's while we're in the EU!