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16 minutes ago, Maximus Decimus said:

This is just not true.

Remain was far from nailed on. They ended up getting it wrong by a swing of 2%. Hillary won the national vote.

What are Corbyn's latest favourability ratings?

In the last few weeks more polls went to leave than remain, and they were quite clear that there wasn't much in it, a 1 percent either way.


With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

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11 hours ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

Taking away the winter fuel allowance from frail lil' old ladies... shocking.

The Conservative policy on this, the proposal for some sort of means testing of the winter fuel allowance, (not as you mendaciously put it "Taking away the winter fuel allowance from frail lil' old ladies") is a policy that was advocated by the Labour Party, by the Lib Dems, and most importantly, by many posters on here. 

The policy on social care - something that HAS to be addressed no matter what -  has virtually no impact on those currently living in  rented housing, or on couples living in houses worth less that £200,000 if they are joint owners. Sounds to me that will go well in the North if not in East Twickenham.

 


Four legs good - two legs bad

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38 minutes ago, steef said:

Don't know what his rating is. I wouldn't pay any attention to it if I did. Polling 1000 people is never going to particularly accurate. 

 

Except it is. And very often.

The major crisis in polling over the last few years is because they were a few percent out on a few occasions.

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7 hours ago, Liverpool Rover said:

The Tories know that they will get away with it because they will win on the basis of Brexit being the top priority of enough voters and then those voters start complaining on question time about how Tory policies are leaving them worse off they will just say "well you gave us the mandate to do all of this."

The Tories should have a very easy ride for the next few years.  May has a hard time ahead.  Brexit will be difficult, though the EU are not as competent as portrayed.  An EU insider tells me that Junker really thought that leaking the meeting would make the British Government reconsider their position, rather than just annoying the UK as a whole. 

While Brexit is going on, the Tory party majority should be large enough for them to believe they can get away with a lot of infighting.


"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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56 minutes ago, Maximus Decimus said:

This is just not true.

Remain was far from nailed on. They ended up getting it wrong by a swing of 2%. Hillary won the national vote.

What are Corbyn's latest favourability ratings?

Quite.  The polls were reasonably accurate in terms of estimating those votes.  They said it would be about 50% for Leave and were right.  They said Clinton would win the popular vote by about the amount she did.

Where they have been off was to the extend that Marcon defeated Le Penn, but people seem to dense to grasp that.


"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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6 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

Quite.  The polls were reasonably accurate in terms of estimating those votes.  They said it would be about 50% for Leave and were right.  They said Clinton would win the popular vote by about the amount she did.

Where they have been off was to the extend that Marcon defeated Le Penn, but people seem to dense to grasp that.

Exactly. Polls are just an indication and have a margin of error.

But because of this margin of error people are so quick to completely dismiss them as having no use.

Although the magically forget to dismiss them when they are happy with what they say. The people happy with Corbyn polling 34% were claiming they were faked by pro-Tory polling companies a couple of weeks ago.

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It could be hidden in the detail, but slightly disappointed across the board all parties answer to housing seems to be to build more.

There are hundreds of thousands of empty houses already built, some need far to much TLC for your average house buyer.  But, if there was an initiative to help first time buyers replace kitchens and bathrooms, I believe you'd open this market to people who simply don't have the funds to do any refurb work having saved for a deposit.

Also something to stop empty property just sitting on the housing market, there are dozens in my local area alone sat empty, just not selling, some have been on the market for years, some sort of intervention here is required.  I'd imagine down south its even more of an issue.

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52 minutes ago, Maximus Decimus said:

Exactly. Polls are just an indication and have a margin of error.

But because of this margin of error people are so quick to completely dismiss them as having no use.

Although the magically forget to dismiss them when they are happy with what they say. The people happy with Corbyn polling 34% were claiming they were faked by pro-Tory polling companies a couple of weeks ago.

Put it this way, if I were a pollster and Labour win, I'd find another business. 


“Few thought him even a starter.There were many who thought themselves smarter. But he ended PM, CH and OM. An Earl and a Knight of the Garter.”

Clement Attlee.

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16 minutes ago, Trojan said:

Put it this way, if I were a pollster and Labour win, I'd find another business. 

On current polling they'd be as good to give up.

I heard this a bit with the Le Pen-Macron run off. Because the polls had been wrong before, they could be wrong by 30+%.

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2 hours ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

Hot school dinners for all replaced by cereal for a smaller number.

My dinner lady wife agrees with you.


Rugby Union the only game in the world were the spectators handle the ball more than the players.

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1 hour ago, JohnM said:

The Conservative policy on this, the proposal for some sort of means testing of the winter fuel allowance, (not as you mendaciously put it "Taking away the winter fuel allowance from frail lil' old ladies") is a policy that was advocated by the Labour Party, by the Lib Dems, and most importantly, by many posters on here. 

The policy on social care - something that HAS to be addressed no matter what -  has virtually no impact on those currently living in  rented housing, or on couples living in houses worth less that £200,000 if they are joint owners. Sounds to me that will go well in the North if not in East Twickenham.

 

I believe other parties and people on this forum have advocated means testing so that the richest who do not need it, have some of these benefits removed.  Jeremy Hunt was quite clear this morning, they will be taking the winter fuel allowance from all but the 'very poorest' pensioners.  

The changes to social care funding mean that your home is now counted towards your assets.  The £25,000 to £100,000 cap is a slight of hand when the value of the home is now to be included.  It will hit the older generation much more than mine, as my generation are less likely to own a home.


With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

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2 minutes ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

I believe other parties and people on this forum have advocated means testing so that the richest who do not need it, have some of these benefits removed.  Jeremy Hunt was quite clear this morning, they will be taking the winter fuel allowance from all but the 'very poorest' pensioners.  

The changes to social care funding mean that your home is now counted towards your assets.  The £25,000 to £100,000 cap is a slight of hand when the value of the home is now to be included.  It will hit the older generation much more than mine, as my generation are less likely to own a home.

 

Isn't this just an inheritance tax that won't affect the very wealthy but will have a massive hit on those at the lower end of the property scale.

 

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Dave Whelan "In Wigan rugby will always be king"

 

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I don't know if anyone else on here saw it but at the end of the 6 o'clock news they were chatting to 4 pensioners in Halifax and every man jack of them slagged off youngsters as being bone idle, layabouts, "living the life of Riley" - unlike them of course who'd worked damn hard for everything they have. I knew there were people thinking that way, but for all of them to hold that view was quite something.

They genuinely appeared to have no understanding whatsoever of what life is like for so many people in 21st Century Britain, and no care to find out either.

With brexit and continued austerity, seemingly being forced joyously on the young by the old, this country is gathering some major inter-generational issues. The Tories, by aligning themselves so unashamedly with the retired/retiring baby boomers, are deliberately and unashamedly feeding it to buy votes in the short term but boy are they going to feel the wrath of it in years to come. 

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"Just as we had been Cathars, we were treizistes, men apart."

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1 minute ago, Padge said:

 

Isn't this just an inheritance tax that won't affect the very wealthy but will have a massive hit on those at the lower end of the property scale.

 

Pretty much. It's a tough one because if anyone's parents live long enough til they need old age care then chances are they won't inherit any money until they're in their sixties (I'd say they're lucky to have parents for that much of their life, but anyway) so the question is would you rather have more money through your working life and inherit less or pay higher taxes through your working life but have more moneyw hen you're already old?

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On the day that Home Secretary Amber Rudd gets a 'testy response' to her speech at the Police Federation Conference,  

Home Secretary has clashed with rank-and-file police officers over crime rates and funding as she insisted the Tories remain the "party of law and order"

you would think that the Labour shadow Home Secretary would jump at the chance to get one over on her, and what does she do?

Diane Abbott gets lost on stage at the Police Federation Conference

The election campaign that just keeps giving.....

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7 minutes ago, nadera78 said:

I don't know if anyone else on here saw it but at the end of the 6 o'clock news they were chatting to 4 pensioners in Halifax and every man jack of them slagged off youngsters as being bone idle, layabouts, "living the life of Riley" - unlike them of course who'd worked damn hard for everything they have. I knew there were people thinking that way, but for all of them to hold that view was quite something.

They genuinely appeared to have no understanding whatsoever of what life is like for so many people in 21st Century Britain, and no care to find out either.

With brexit and continued austerity, seemingly being forced joyously on the young by the old, this country is gathering some major inter-generational issues. The Tories, by aligning themselves so unashamedly with the retired/retiring baby boomers, are deliberately and unashamedly feeding it to buy votes in the short term but boy are they going to feel the wrath of it in years to come. 

I agree apart from the highlighted bit, with the changes to winter fuel, end of the triple lock and social care costs that are now likely to happen, I think the tories have concluded that they don't need the guaranteed older vote in this election.  They have served their purpose.  


With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

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8 minutes ago, nadera78 said:

I don't know if anyone else on here saw it but at the end of the 6 o'clock news they were chatting to 4 pensioners in Halifax and every man jack of them slagged off youngsters as being bone idle, layabouts, "living the life of Riley" - unlike them of course who'd worked damn hard for everything they have. I knew there were people thinking that way, but for all of them to hold that view was quite something.

They genuinely appeared to have no understanding whatsoever of what life is like for so many people in 21st Century Britain, and no care to find out either.

With brexit and continued austerity, seemingly being forced joyously on the young by the old, this country is gathering some major inter-generational issues. The Tories, by aligning themselves so unashamedly with the retired/retiring baby boomers, are deliberately and unashamedly feeding it to buy votes in the short term but boy are they going to feel the wrath of it in years to come. 

 

They gave an example on the local news of how this would affect people. People requiring care would have to pay the full cost themselves out of the value of their home, some care was very expensive £60,000 per year being quoted as common.

So if you have a house worth £200,000 and need care @ £50,000/annum then within two years you will have hit your £100,000 threshold and when you die that £100,000 comes out of your estate. A lot of people have little assets other than their home. This amounts to a 50% inheritance tax on those at the lower end of the wealth scale. Depending on how long you need care and how long you live and the cost of care some people who are not what you would consider as being particularly well off could be 80% inheritance tax quite easily.

Those at the top end of the wealth scale will hardly notice as they would already have provisioned for private health care as they wouldn't be sending granny to one of those nasty grubby care homes the peasants go to.

 


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Radio 5 Live: Saturday 14 April 2007

Dave Whelan "In Wigan rugby will always be king"

 

This country's wealth was created by men in overalls, it was destroyed by men in suits.

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With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

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53 minutes ago, jacksy said:

My dinner lady wife agrees with you.

This is basically a re run of the Thatcherite eighties.  At that time my wife was also a dinner lady, and they were told in no uncertain terms that it was no longer about nutrition, it was about school meals making a profit.  So out went the balanced meals and in came turkey twizzlers etc.   The Thatcherite line (Gradgrind line) was that school was for learning not for eating.

The school dinner was the only decent meal many kids got.  It was proved that improved nutrition would be reflected in improved performance in the classroom. 

The Lib/Dems to their credit forced free school meals on the cretin Gove, and now after only three years the Tories are reverting to character, they know the price of everything and the value of nothing.


“Few thought him even a starter.There were many who thought themselves smarter. But he ended PM, CH and OM. An Earl and a Knight of the Garter.”

Clement Attlee.

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With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

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I remember at Primary school, in the mid 80s having proper cooked meals served on plates, with deserts served in proper bowls. All of a sudden it changed to plastic trays with compartments for main and desert. Not only that, the dinner ladies went from being cooks to just warming food that came from a central location, Crown Pont Food irrc.

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8 minutes ago, Mark S said:

I remember at Primary school, in the mid 80s having proper cooked meals served on plates, with deserts served in proper bowls. All of a sudden it changed to plastic trays with compartments for main and desert. Not only that, the dinner ladies went from being cooks to just warming food that came from a central location, Crown Pont Food irrc.

I'm not actually sure how much the government would even save by this measure.

One of the consequences of free meals for infants is that many parents don't sign up for free school meals anymore until the juniors. Signing up for FSM automatically entitles children to extra funding through pupil premium and the result has been a significant drop in pupil premium funding in schools.

One large school I looked round recently mentioned a drop of 90k a year as a result.

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Who's gonna serve the free breakfast to the kids and how much will that cost to introduce? Schools would have to open earlier surely?

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3 hours ago, Maximus Decimus said:

Exactly. Polls are just an indication and have a margin of error.

But because of this margin of error people are so quick to completely dismiss them as having no use.

Although the magically forget to dismiss them when they are happy with what they say. The people happy with Corbyn polling 34% were claiming they were faked by pro-Tory polling companies a couple of weeks ago.

You are far more patient than me, Mike.  If people cannot get it, I am inclined to write them off.  Which is perhaps why you are a better teacher than I could ever be.

People too stupid to understand very simply put data, dismissing it because they are thick is something I find irritating.


"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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What is the margin of error for these polls? I found out the other day that most forecasts that the government (of all flavours) base decisions on forecasts with 30% margins of error. 

If if I presented that to a client I would lose the contract. 

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