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And a snippet from the modelling paper on which the UK's response is based

Overall, our results suggest that population-wide social distancing applied to the population as a whole would have the largest impact; and in combination with other interventions – notably home isolation of cases and school and university closure – has the potential to suppress transmission below the threshold of R=1 required to rapidly reduce case incidence. A minimum policy for effective suppression is therefore population-wide social distancing combined with home isolation of cases and school and university closure. 

To avoid a rebound in transmission, these policies will need to be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunise the population – which could be 18 months or more.  Adaptive hospital surveillance-based triggers for switching on and off population-wide social distancing and school closure offer greater robustness to uncertainty than fixed duration interventions and can be adapted for regional use (e.g. at the state level in the US). 

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It's the worst balancing act. Maintaining a lockdown will become socially and economically increasingly damaging. Unless the government commits to financially supporting everyone (incl self employed) for the duration, people will start running out of money. Will bank allow open-ended mortgage holidays? Increased suicides, family breakdowns, mental health problems, social disorder - Italy have reports of people stealing food from supermarkets as they've run out of money. A&E reports of a large reduction in patients, but many are dying at home from hear attacks. It's a horrendously complex equation with no right answer, but I cannot see an 18 month shutdown. 

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12 hours ago, Wakefield Ram said:

It's the worst balancing act. Maintaining a lockdown will become socially and economically increasingly damaging. Unless the government commits to financially supporting everyone (incl self employed) for the duration, people will start running out of money. Will bank allow open-ended mortgage holidays? Increased suicides, family breakdowns, mental health problems, social disorder - Italy have reports of people stealing food from supermarkets as they've run out of money. A&E reports of a large reduction in patients, but many are dying at home from hear attacks. It's a horrendously complex equation with no right answer, but I cannot see an 18 month shutdown. 

Spot on.  as I mentioned before the cure can't be worse than the illness..  The Scientists will obviously tell us that measures need to be in place for many many months but governments have to weigh up everything.  That is why Denmark, Austria and even Spain and the US are already starting to loosen some of the restrcitions 

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On 15/04/2020 at 08:07, Piggy's mate said:

Social distancing will remain until a vaccine is available and approx. 40 million have been inoculated. This is unlikely to be before end of October. SL games behind closed doors will be on TV from end July, you can forget any at our level 

I can't see how any contact sport can be restarted with social distancing rules without every player etc being tested. Golf maybe, Cricket etc but not a sport like RL. It doesn't matter whether it's behind closed doors. 12 Players in a scrum, 4 in a tackle. Can't see how that would work unless RL gets special dispensation to test players.  

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Testing seems to be the answer youngun.  South Korea has limited fatalities to about the 250 mark without resorting to a full lockdown thanks to a rigorous testing regime (they have banned crowds though and closed schools).  They use an app on smartphones that tells them if someone in the locale has tested positive for coronavirus.  It would make sense to limit crowds to an agreed fraction of stadium capacity to start with to allow social distancing, and perhaps to follow the Far Eastern model of wearing masks in public (Nah, I don't mean the players)..  Anyway, guesswork is ok but only time will tell.

Edited by Bi11

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2 hours ago, NickD said:

Spot on.  as I mentioned before the cure can't be worse than the illness..  The Scientists will obviously tell us that measures need to be in place for many many months but governments have to weigh up everything.  That is why Denmark, Austria and even Spain and the US are already starting to loosen some of the restrcitions 

Some scientists! The modellers are simply that they are not epidemioligists nor immunolgists. A much broader span of experts is needed - maybe Garry Schofield should be drafted in?

Edited by Blind side johnny
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Sport, amongst other things, is a dream-world offering escape from harsh reality and the disturbing prospect of change.

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1 hour ago, Bi11 said:

Testing seems to be the answer youngun.  South Korea has limited fatalities to about the 250 mark without resorting to a full lockdown thanks to a rigorous testing regime (they have banned crowds though and closed schools).  They use an app on smartphones that tells them if someone in the locale has tested positive for coronavirus.  It would make sense to limit crowds to an agreed fraction of stadium capacity to start with to allow social distancing, and perhaps to follow the Far Eastern model of wearing masks in public (Nah, I don't mean the players)..  Anyway, guesswork is ok but only time will tell.

South Korea has a very different demographic too with most of the population being under 35 and only 14% being over 65. It is a very complicated situation which requires both medical and political nous - thankfully we have Boris.

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Sport, amongst other things, is a dream-world offering escape from harsh reality and the disturbing prospect of change.

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17 hours ago, Wakefield Ram said:

It's the worst balancing act. Maintaining a lockdown will become socially and economically increasingly damaging. Unless the government commits to financially supporting everyone (incl self employed) for the duration, people will start running out of money. Will bank allow open-ended mortgage holidays? Increased suicides, family breakdowns, mental health problems, social disorder - Italy have reports of people stealing food from supermarkets as they've run out of money. A&E reports of a large reduction in patients, but many are dying at home from hear attacks. It's a horrendously complex equation with no right answer, but I cannot see an 18 month shutdown. 

That said should have added that it's hard to see re-starting Rugby League  this year. Employers have a duty of care and social distancing is impossible with playing RL. 

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You make a fair point BSJ.  I wasn't aware of the difference in demographics, just that they have managed to suppress the spread of the virus.  Mind you, suppressing the spread of the virus must be more difficult with a younger population as they are less risk averse.  Japan, with nearly twice our population and an aging population also have fatalities in the low hundreds. I accept that it may well be that with the benefit of hindsight other factors will  been seen to have played a part.

Still, I am sure that any scientist worth his salt would accept that rigorous testing is of the utmost importance in controlling the spread of the disease and  efforts to lift present social restrictions. (Unless said scientist was bored and enjoying a bit of fishing).

Stay safe.

 

 

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On 16/04/2020 at 20:40, Wakefield Ram said:

It's the worst balancing act. Maintaining a lockdown will become socially and economically increasingly damaging. Unless the government commits to financially supporting everyone (incl self employed) for the duration, people will start running out of money. Will bank allow open-ended mortgage holidays? Increased suicides, family breakdowns, mental health problems, social disorder - Italy have reports of people stealing food from supermarkets as they've run out of money. A&E reports of a large reduction in patients, but many are dying at home from hear attacks. It's a horrendously complex equation with no right answer, but I cannot see an 18 month shutdown. 

You raise some excellent points Wakefield Ram. And the points you raise I fear.I fear we are going to see social breakdown with suicides,family breakdown,mental health issues with anarchy taking over because people are desperate. And when people are desperate,and it will be not be the yob element of society they will resort to desperate measures and they will break the law.

 And if as I fear this does happen then how on earth can we think about resuming not only rugby league but all sports if we see the streets of our cities and town explode into flames?

Please god let me be wrong.

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44 minutes ago, Robthegasman said:

You raise some excellent points Wakefield Ram. And the points you raise I fear.I fear we are going to see social breakdown with suicides,family breakdown,mental health issues with anarchy taking over because people are desperate. And when people are desperate,and it will be not be the yob element of society they will resort to desperate measures and they will break the law.

 And if as I fear this does happen then how on earth can we think about resuming not only rugby league but all sports if we see the streets of our cities and town explode into flames?

Please god let me be wrong.

The only way to escape the apocalypse you describe is for some loosening of lockdown measures, starting in three weeks time.  As I keep saying and you agree the public will only stand the lockdown for so long.  Once we see some loosening I think we will see an upturn in mood and people’s positivity and we will be fine.  If the media allow it I think we’ll see some loosening in three weeks time. 
crikey.  I’m being the optimist again??

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Posted this elsewhere but there is no vaccine, so all that can happen is loosen restrictions for a period and then when cases start increasing lockdown again, making sure that projected peaks don't swamp the NHS. And repeat until a vaccine or effective treatment is found to stop people dying in large numbers. 

The alternative of ending lockdown and using herd immunity of 65m population and roughly 1% mortality rates means hundreds of thousands of people dying.

I'd avoid looking at the history of the Spanish Flu pandemic. Although the Prime Minister then contracted it. Some things never change.

 

Edited by Wakefield Ram

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Sport, amongst other things, is a dream-world offering escape from harsh reality and the disturbing prospect of change.

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Great news on the 16 million quid from the government and will be fascinating to see how it’s divided and spent 

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It is good news, I hope all clubs get a fair share and it's put to good use.

I think it's going to have to last for a long time to come, I fear we wont see a re-start or a new season till 2021, the nature of our game doesn't lend itself to a quick return. 

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Hi Nick, let me explain my thoughts, having seen that Bradford City have stopped selling season tickets for the 20/21 football season and the  EFL have warn clubs it could well be January  before they are allowed to play in front of crowds due to social distancing how can a game like ours with full physical contact hope to return sooner. I hope I'm wrong but I think we will re-start this season in January or write this one off start a fresh next year.

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On 01/05/2020 at 18:37, Ramboy said:

Hi Nick, let me explain my thoughts, having seen that Bradford City have stopped selling season tickets for the 20/21 football season and the  EFL have warn clubs it could well be January  before they are allowed to play in front of crowds due to social distancing how can a game like ours with full physical contact hope to return sooner. I hope I'm wrong but I think we will re-start this season in January or write this one off start a fresh next year.

Said it before, no Championship RL until a vaccine is available roll on 2021

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Touch Rugby W(h)inger and part-time Super Hero (Thursday mornings by appointment) :superman:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BATLEY BULLDOGS RLFC :bb:

 

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4 hours ago, Piggy's mate said:

Said it before, no Championship RL until a vaccine is available roll on 2021

Totally agree with that. I heard yesterday their is very little chance of any rugby league been played again this year,at championship level anyway.☹️

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5 hours ago, Piggy's mate said:

Said it before, no Championship RL until a vaccine is available roll on 2021

I think that RL will recommence, like most sport, well before a reliable vaccine is available; the latter might well take much longer than some people realise and certainly longer than politicians might like.

Championship behind closed doors is a non-starter so we will be lucky to see any before 2021. The question is, will anyone turn up to watch?


Sport, amongst other things, is a dream-world offering escape from harsh reality and the disturbing prospect of change.

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On 17/04/2020 at 11:30, Blind side johnny said:

Some scientists! The modellers are simply that they are not epidemioligists nor immunolgists. A much broader span of experts is needed - maybe Garry Schofield should be drafted in?

?

The leader of the Imperial College modelling group, Professor Neil Ferguson, is an epidemiologist and professor of mathematical biology, who specialises in the patterns of spread of infectious disease in humans and animals.

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On 04/05/2020 at 19:44, Les Tonks Sidestep said:

?

The leader of the Imperial College modelling group, Professor Neil Ferguson, is an epidemiologist and professor of mathematical biology, who specialises in the patterns of spread of infectious disease in humans and animals.

And was largely responsible for the wholesale and unnecessary slaughter during the Foot & Mouth epidemic. He is also a friend of Cummins and his group.

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Sport, amongst other things, is a dream-world offering escape from harsh reality and the disturbing prospect of change.

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On 04/05/2020 at 19:44, Les Tonks Sidestep said:

?

The leader of the Imperial College modelling group, Professor Neil Ferguson, is an epidemiologist and professor of mathematical biology, who specialises in the patterns of spread of infectious disease in humans and animals.

Is this the same professor who has resigned today for breaking lockdown rules to apparently go see his married lover? ?‍♂️

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What Prof Ferguson did won't change how the virus spreads or how many people will die. It's a good media story, but in the context of 30,000 deaths it's irrelevant.

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I see, as of Monday the Dewsbury massive, can repopulate the ground in their usual numbers...

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Touch Rugby W(h)inger and part-time Super Hero (Thursday mornings by appointment) :superman:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BATLEY BULLDOGS RLFC :bb:

 

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