Increase in the death rate

[Trojan]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/12158930/Biggest-annual-rise-in-deaths-for-almost-fifty-years-prompts-warnings-of-crisis-in-elderly-care.html

 

This increase appears to have started in 2010.  Draw your own conclusions.

[ckn]

On one bit of that article, 50% of councils that funded meals on wheels services in 2010 have closed them due to lack of funds and more are planning to close them this year

[westlondonfan]

Well if my family's experience is anything to go to there will be no staff to look after the elderly in care homes in the future if Brexit goes through.

[Griff9of13]

Further to the article, on the London news a couple of weeks back there was a report about care homes. It said that over 200 care homes had closed since 2010 in one borough alone. This despite demand increasing massively.

[Trojan]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-35589564

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3449145/Death-rate-higher-time-Second-World-War-health-experts-warn.html

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/dec/31/serious-mistakes-nhs-patient-care-rising-figures-reveal-hospitals

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/jan/01/good-health-good-society-we-are-suffering

"Death rates have been rising slightly since 2010, reversing what was a steady fall since the 1970s."

"Former chancellor George Osborne’s insistence that the entire deficit reduction programme be shouldered by spending cuts, rather than in balance with tax rises, was not only bad economics, it has been ruinous for health and wellbeing."

[ckn]

A bunch of posts removed.  I don't care how strongly people object to what is a non-abusive post on a highly topical subject, it's never acceptable to resort to abusive posting.

[Li0nhead]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/health/12158930/Biggest-annual-rise-in-deaths-for-almost-fifty-years-prompts-warnings-of-crisis-in-elderly-care.html

 

This increase appears to have started in 2010.  Draw your own conclusions.

 

So the baby boomers are reaching their end?

 

Happens to most humans in the end.

 

Not nice I know but some people offer free pens when you consider this.

[Trojan]

So the baby boomers are reaching their end?

 

Happens to most humans in the end.

 

Not nice I know but some people offer free pens when you consider this.

It's nothing to do with quantity and everything to do with rate, so no it's not the baby boomers.

[JohnM]

A bunch of posts removed.  I don't care how strongly people object to what is a non-abusive post on a highly topical subject, it's never acceptable to resort to abusive posting.

 

This is intolerable and utterly outrageous. You are wrong. It is very definitely an abusive thread in which Trojan is blaming Conservatives for the increase in the number of deaths.

 

The whole premis behind Trojan's thread, and indeed behind virtually all his AOB postings,  is to dish out abuse  aimed at the Conservative party, the Conservative govt, Conservatives in general and specifically Conservatives on here. On numerous occasions he has abused what few of us remain on this unbalanced forum. No wonder so many have given up in disgust. If he can't take it, he shouldn't dish it out.

 

On a broader issue, a number of other posters on here have poured scorn and abuse on us  right-of-centre types with no fear of censure. Time for a review?

[Copa]

Well if my family's experience is anything to go to there will be no staff to look after the elderly in care homes in the future if Brexit goes through.

why?

In a world where you have full control on who migrates it's not hard to create regulations that permit people to enter temporarily (ie not forever) to work in selected industries.

[ckn]

This is intolerable and utterly outrageous. You are wrong. It is very definitely an abusive thread in which Trojan is blaming Conservatives for the increase in the number of deaths.

 

The whole premis behind Trojan's thread, and indeed behind virtually all his AOB postings,  is to dish out abuse  aimed at the Conservative party, the Conservative govt, Conservatives in general and specifically Conservatives on here. On numerous occasions he has abused what few of us remain on this unbalanced forum. No wonder so many have given up in disgust. If he can't take it, he shouldn't dish it out.

Show me where it's wrong then beyond your one example. 

 

I see it on a daily basis at work where biting cuts into operational social care muscle has to be softened by the NHS.  Care homes, hospices and other social care at the "budget" end of the social care spectrum have been devastated in the last four years in particular.  By the government's own figures, the NHS is treating substantially more Victorian era diseases and malnutrition, especially in the over 65 age bracket.  I'm operating on the bad-end of a really iffy internet connection but go have a look for NHS statistics published by the government and look yourself.

 

One of your Tory MPs, Sarah Wollaston, has even waded in to criticise May's lies over social care funding with her specifically saying the government is paying significantly less than they claim.

 

I've seen old folk treated as numbers, and numbers to be discarded, with good people trying to care for them reduced to wrecks doing it for virtually nothing.  I know at least ten private care home companies operate deliberately at their owners' cost to stop them going bust and making old people homeless, including one of the companies with over 20 care homes doing that with zero hope of ever turning a profit, the owner with a previous 9 figure net-wealth knows he'll probably end up bankrupt himself but his morals won't let him do differently.

 

The government is deliberately and systematically destroying social care in the UK by de-funding councils then giving them the power to raise 1/10th of their needs by extra council tax, leaving the councils to take the blame rather than them.

[Trojan]

This is intolerable and utterly outrageous. You are wrong. It is very definitely an abusive thread in which Trojan is blaming Conservatives for the increase in the number of deaths.

 

The whole premis behind Trojan's thread, and indeed behind virtually all his AOB postings,  is to dish out abuse  aimed at the Conservative party, the Conservative govt, Conservatives in general and specifically Conservatives on here. On numerous occasions he has abused what few of us remain on this unbalanced forum. No wonder so many have given up in disgust. If he can't take it, he shouldn't dish it out.

The quote laying the blame on the Tories and George Osborne in particular is from Will Hutton.

As for attacking the Tories, yes I attack them because I see them as basically evil.

You never miss an opportunity to attack the Labour Party. 

I find it difficult to understand why anyone with a basic knowledge of what's right and what's wrong could possibly support what the Tories have done in the past 6 1/2 years. 

I could say the same for the 18 years from 1979 to 1997. 

I grew up under a Tory administration.  By means of gradual attrition they ate away at many of the improvements in worker's rights and privileges brought in under the Attlee government.  I know this to be true because my father was chronically ill during the latter years of the Macmillan government, and his benefits were cut and his costs (prescription charges_ were increased.

I was brought up in the Methodist church and got my sense of right and wrong from them.  These values are still with me today.

I do not live in a cesspit!

[Bedford Roughyed]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/01/01/jet-in-carers-fly-benidorm-britain-amid-massive-care-crisis/

 

Massive care crisis... so says the Telegraph?   

[Robin Evans]

I work in learning disabilities nursing. Care management is becoming an increasingly difficult task as fewer resources are available and fewer dedicated social workers with any kind of insight into LD are available to undertake that work and nurses are becoming increasingly stretched to the point of dangerousness.

Trying not to deploy any political prejudice (I accept my left viewing politics makes this hard) since 2010 my job to maintain access to good care and health for people within our service has become increasingly difficult. It would come as no surprise then that mortality rates across the board have increased but particularly amongst those most vulnerable

[Derwent]

I work in learning disabilities nursing. Care management is becoming an increasingly difficult task as fewer resources are available and fewer dedicated social workers with any kind of insight into LD are available to undertake that work and nurses are becoming increasingly stretched to the point of dangerousness.

Trying not to deploy any political prejudice (I accept my left viewing politics makes this hard) since 2010 my job to maintain access to good care and health for people within our service has become increasingly difficult. It would come as no surprise then that mortality rates across the board have increased but particularly amongst those most vulnerable

I don't think anyone would argue with you that services are stretched to near breaking point. But to simply blame it on recent policies is extremely simplistic. There are a whole plethora of reasons and some of them are local, some are regional, some are national. The fact is that elderly care has been a ticking time bomb for a long time, just as state pensions are, and successive governments of all persuasions have failed to address it properly. To just say "it's the Tories fault" is just plain wrong, the Blair and Brown governments are just as culpable. In fact it was Blair who ignored the 1999 Royal Commission report into elderly care and went in a totally opposite direction and accelerated the mass privatisation of care homes and introduced the compulsory levy on pensioners. Of course Osborne's austerity measures haven't helped but there are some other deep rooted fundamental issues in the system that have contributed to the crisis.

[Bedford Roughyed]

If you take a ticking time bomb, pick it up and shake it, don't expect too much sympathy when it blows up in your face.

[Robin Evans]

I don't think anyone would argue with you that services are stretched to near breaking point. But to simply blame it on recent policies is extremely simplistic. There are a whole plethora of reasons and some of them are local, some are regional, some are national. The fact is that elderly care has been a ticking time bomb for a long time, just as state pensions are, and successive governments of all persuasions have failed to address it properly. To just say "it's the Tories fault" is just plain wrong, the Blair and Brown governments are just as culpable. In fact it was Blair who ignored the 1999 Royal Commission report into elderly care and went in a totally opposite direction and accelerated the mass privatisation of care homes and introduced the compulsory levy on pensioners. Of course Osborne's austerity measures haven't helped but there are some other deep rooted fundamental issues in the system that have contributed to the crisis.

My knowledge on care of the elderly is limited. I work in learning disabilities.

My experience under the tories since 2010 has seen care provision eroded more than at any other time.

Budgets have seen greater cuts than at any other time. Bidding for services now is ridiculously onerous and diverts essential time away from clinical care... more so than at any other time.

Health and social care as you say has always attracted difficult management. But since 2010 the impact on the most vulnerable has been so stark and obvious to those of us trying to knit sand

[Derwent]

My knowledge on care of the elderly is limited. I work in learning disabilities.

My experience under the tories since 2010 has seen care provision eroded more than at any other time.

Budgets have seen greater cuts than at any other time. Bidding for services now is ridiculously onerous and diverts essential time away from clinical care... more so than at any other time.

Health and social care as you say has always attracted difficult management. But since 2010 the impact on the most vulnerable has been so stark and obvious to those of us trying to knit sand

I admire you and your colleagues for the work you do in difficult circumstances. Funding is the major problem, but of course this varies from region to region as it is councils who set the budgets for most of the care provision in their area. Some councils give it more priority than others, some are profligate in wasting money on non-essential services, some are just completely mismanaged. It really is a postcode lottery.

[Robin Evans]

Councils don't set budgets for continuing health care and though there are regional variations they are universally tight and much more prescriptive.... as you'd expect.

Regional variations apart, (and I really am trying to a apolitical here), the impact since 2010 is such that I'm at the point of doing as the memsahib did last year and saying fk it!

[Saintslass]

It's nothing to do with quantity and everything to do with rate, so no it's not the baby boomers.

Why isn't it?  If lots and lots of people grow into old age at the same time then the rate of deaths is likely to increase isn't it?  

 

One of the weaknesses of the article linked to in the OP is that it does not appear to deal with age at all.  At least I don't remember seeing mention of age when I read the piece last night. Age is a key factor here.  

 

I also remember from the article that 2015 saw the highest yearly death rate since 2003.  So what happened in 2003 which meant more people died than in 2015 when apparently so-called austerity claimed so many people?  (And since we have mentioned the elderly, we cannot possibly claim post 2008 as real austerity since those same elderly people will have lived through genuine austerity)

[ckn]

Tory people are quick to forget that their beloved Chancellor admitted only a couple of months ago that he cut social care by £4bn to fund dangerous deficits in the NHS rather than put in genuinely new money. £4bn. Then he has the cheek to say they're allowing councils to self-rescue by raising council tax by a max of £400m, but naturally this will be weighted towards the wealthier council areas that don't need it as much.

[Stevo]

Why isn't it?  If lots and lots of people grow into old age at the same time then the rate of deaths is likely to increase isn't it?  

 

One of the weaknesses of the article linked to in the OP is that it does not appear to deal with age at all.  At least I don't remember seeing mention of age when I read the piece last night. Age is a key factor here.  

 

I also remember from the article that 2015 saw the highest yearly death rate since 2003.  So what happened in 2003 which meant more people died than in 2015 when apparently so-called austerity claimed so many people?  (And since we have mentioned the elderly, we cannot possibly claim post 2008 as real austerity since those same elderly people will have lived through genuine austerity)

 

The article is a bit odd, in that it talks around the issue of age without really quoting the relevant statistics - though the source of the stats answers your question about quantity, rate and population age:

 

===============

Deaths increase in 2015

There were 529,655 deaths registered in England and Wales in 2015, compared with 501,424 in 2014; an increase of 5.6% as previously reported in our provisional analysis of 2015 death registrations. This is the largest annual percentage increase since the 6.3% rise recorded between 1967 and 1968. The number of deaths has increased each year since 2011, with the exception of a 1.1% fall in 2014. The number of deaths is affected by the size and age structure of the population. As people are tending to live longer, leading to the population increasing in both size and age over time, we may also expect the number of deaths to increase.

 

Age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) are a better measure of mortality than simply looking at the number of deaths, as they take into account the population size, its age structure and the age distribution of deaths. Compared with 2014, ASMRs in 2015 increased for both sexes with 1,156.4 deaths per 100,000 population for males and 863.8 for females; the percentage increase was larger among females (5.1%) than males (3.1%).

 

With the exception of 2015, mortality rates have generally been decreasing (Figure 1). This is due to improved lifestyles and medical advances in the treatment and diagnosis of many illnesses and diseases. There have also been government initiatives to improve health through better diet and lifestyle.

 

(https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregistrationsummarytables/2015#deaths-increase-in-2015)

 

================

 

There are a few other correlations that are worth drawing out in this context: the region of England with the highest mortality rate in 2015 was the north east; the English local authority area with the highest mortality rate was Blackpool. The areas of England with the lowerst mortality rates are the south Midlands, south east (with some exceptions to the east of London), and southern regions.

 

It is hard to not make links between higher rates of poverty and increased mortality rates.

[ckn]

Councils don't set budgets for continuing health care and though there are regional variations they are universally tight and much more prescriptive.... as you'd expect.

Regional variations apart, (and I really am trying to a apolitical here), the impact since 2010 is such that I'm at the point of doing as the memsahib did last year and saying fk it!

Continuing Healthcare is one of the things that could genuinely save whole-system money if properly funded but no-one wants to do it as it's so underfunded it's essentially broken. The big commissioning support units no longer want to do it because it's what's caused a number of them to go under already, this is despite them having the size to do it at the scale that could make them work. Arden & GEM CSU tried to make it their speciality, undercutting everyone to win the work, only to recognise that they were essentially getting enough money to fund an administrator and scheduler service rather than properly clinically led service.

CHC is one of those services that can properly help in many areas, including elderly care as in the thread's topic, but is actually a genuine example of the government cutting today rather than investing today to safely cut money tomorrow.

[JohnM]

Show me where it's wrong then beyond your one example. 

judge, jury and executioner all in one. You removed a perfectly legitimate and non abusive post raising the perfectly legitimate question about childhood sexual abuse in Labour areas but encourage one that was deliberately designed to paint Conservatives as responsible for the deaths of people. Trojan takes every opportunity to accuse Conservatives of all sorts of things, including implying that previous MPS, ministers etc of being involved in paedophile rings.And that's OK? Honestly, what is the point?

[Robin Evans]

For heavens sake.... stop blubbing or sit on the mardy step ffs

"Perfectly legitimate" my botty. You knew what you were doing and why.... behaving like a big kid....

But of course you can now bleat on about how badly done to you are....

Deary me.... get a grip man...

I'd got you down as much better than this crapola