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ckn

Independent Group

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2 minutes ago, ckn said:

As an aside, this means the new Group has more MPs than the Lib Dems, if they established as a Party then they'd get precedence over them in the Commons.

He's said he has no plans to join the independent group so they're still equal to the lib dems.

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2 minutes ago, ckn said:

As an aside, this means the new Group has more MPs than the Lib Dems, if they established as a Party then they'd get precedence over them in the Commons.

Not sure it does, Austin isn't joining the group, he's an independent, independent!

Looks nailed on for the Torys if he stands in the next election, wafer thin majority!

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3 minutes ago, shrek said:

Not sure it does, Austin isn't joining the group, he's an independent, independent!

Looks nailed on for the Torys if he stands in the next election, wafer thin majority!

Listening to the commentary now, I think he gets that with his massive majority of 22 that he can rule the world therefore why bother with joining in a group. It's almost as if he's jumped before being pushed by either the local CLP or the electorate themselves.

Edit: also, he's a pro-Brexiteer so probably wouldn't feel at home in the strongly pro-Remain Independent Group.


“Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime" - Mark Twain

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1 minute ago, ckn said:

Listening to the commentary now, I think he gets that with his massive majority of 22 that he can rule the world therefore why bother with joining in a group. It's almost as if he's jumped before being pushed by either the local CLP or the electorate themselves.

Edit: also, he's a pro-Brexiteer so probably wouldn't feel at home in the strongly pro-Remain Independent Group.

Interesting that a Brexiteer has now also left, Corybns and his team can no longer hide behind it being extreme remainers wanting out.

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Just now, shrek said:

Interesting that a Brexiteer has now also left, Corybns and his team can no longer hide behind it being extreme remainers wanting out.

They'll just revert to the traitor who wants to destroy the left wing popular agenda line

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2 minutes ago, RidingPie said:

They'll just revert to the traitor who wants to destroy the left wing popular agenda line

If they do it'll give Jess Phillips a break!

 

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16 minutes ago, ckn said:

As an aside, this means the new Group has more MPs than the Lib Dems, if they established as a Party then they'd get precedence over them in the Commons.

According to the BBC he's said he isn't joining TIG. Who knows if that will last though.

 

(More posts came through and I was beaten to this by a considerable margin. Sorry)

Edited by Dunedan

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2 minutes ago, shrek said:

If they do it'll give Jess Phillips a break!

 

I wouldn't be surprised if she took her LBC 10-1 slot today to let rip on that subject.

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“Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime" - Mark Twain

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1 minute ago, ckn said:

I wouldn't be surprised if she took her LBC 10-1 slot today to let rip on that subject.

I shall be tuning in to find out!

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1 minute ago, ckn said:

I wouldn't be surprised if she took her LBC 10-1 slot today to let rip on that subject.

LBC has certainly managed to find some interesting people to fill that slot this week.

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There was an interesting discussion on Radio 4 about the chances of this new IG group and some of the issues they face. The conclusion was that they stand very little chance of creating a lasting party and this I can understand and would even agree with; the odds are certainly stacked against them. 

However, the one thing they didn't really touch on was Brexit. If a no-deal Brexit was to happen with the expected dire consequences you'd have to think that the Tories would take most of the blame. Both for being the main proponents of Brexit and/or for apparently mishandling Brexit. 

The main beneficiaries would usually be Labour but the unpopularity of Corbyn and the idea of shared blame for not preventing it could leave a vacuum.

This could present an opportunity for a Macron style new party to get an unexpected victory purely because they are an alternative and free of blame. IG would seem naturally placed but I also think there would be space for a UKIP or Farage led party claiming that they'd been sabotaged. 

A no-deal Brexit is a sufficient political event that it could break up the status quo.

 

 

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26 minutes ago, shrek said:

I shall be tuning in to find out!

So will I.


"it is a well known fact that those people who most want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it."

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7 minutes ago, Maximus Decimus said:

There was an interesting discussion on Radio 4 about the chances of this new IG group and some of the issues they face. The conclusion was that they stand very little chance of creating a lasting party and this I can understand and would even agree with; the odds are certainly stacked against them. 

However, the one thing they didn't really touch on was Brexit. If a no-deal Brexit was to happen with the expected dire consequences you'd have to think that the Tories would take most of the blame. Both for being the main proponents of Brexit and/or for apparently mishandling Brexit. 

The main beneficiaries would usually be Labour but the unpopularity of Corbyn and the idea of shared blame for not preventing it could leave a vacuum.

This could present an opportunity for a Macron style new party to get an unexpected victory purely because they are an alternative and free of blame. IG would seem naturally placed but I also think there would be space for a UKIP or Farage led party claiming that they'd been sabotaged. 

A no-deal Brexit is a sufficient political event that it could break up the status quo.

 

 

Assuming there is a deal to leave the EU at some point, has there been any indication what their stance would be from that point? Are the advocating re-joining? Would the 3 Tories reason for being there be still relevant? 

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14 minutes ago, Private Baldrick said:

Assuming there is a deal to leave the EU at some point, has there been any indication what their stance would be from that point? Are the advocating re-joining? Would the 3 Tories reason for being there be still relevant? 

What they're advocating is that whatever deal is reached, should go back to the people in a binding referendum. Then whatever the result its done and doesn't go back to parliament.

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5 minutes ago, RidingPie said:

What they're advocating is that whatever deal is reached, should go back to the people in a binding referendum. Then whatever the result its done and doesn't go back to parliament.

Yes, but what I am asking is that on the assumption the May deal is passed by Parliament and we leave the EU on March 29th, what then for the IG? Is it too late then to be calling for a peoples vote when we have legally left?

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18 minutes ago, Private Baldrick said:

Yes, but what I am asking is that on the assumption the May deal is passed by Parliament and we leave the EU on March 29th, what then for the IG? Is it too late then to be calling for a peoples vote when we have legally left?

They've not discussed that, I suspect there would be a few general elections before we considered rejoining and if the main parties are still running far right and far left they'll be trying to fill the centre ground void.

Personally from my opinion, once we leave it will be very hard for us to rejoin, as we'd have to adopt the Euro and Schengen, lose our rebate and all the other things we currently have opt outs against. Again personally I wouldn't mind that as I think we'd then have to actually integrate and be involved instead of heckling from the sidelines as we have been doing. However, I suspect many would have a problem with that.

Edited by RidingPie
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2 minutes ago, RidingPie said:

Personally from my opinion, once we leave it will be very hard for us to rejoin, as we'd have to adopt the Euro and Schengen, lose our rebate and all the other things we currently have opt outs against. Again personally I wouldn't mind that as I think we'd then have to actually integrate and be involved instead of heckling from the sidelines as we have been doing. However, I suspect many would have a problem with that.

If we did rejoin on those terms I for one will be laughing long an loud at the folly of the whole mess.

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"it is a well known fact that those people who most want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it."

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11 minutes ago, Griff9of13 said:

If we did rejoin on those terms I for one will be laughing long an loud at the folly of the whole mess.

It would be so funny as to almost make the whole sorry debacle worth while :biggrin:

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Here's an interesting article in the Guardian by John Redwood. In it he's saying that the 3 conservative defectors are just getting involved in a labour split and deflecting and ignoring the movement of the conservative party to the right (and the influence of the ERG not surprisingly). Oddly at the end he encourages other conservatives thinking of leaving to join the lib dems instead!

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/22/tory-independent-group-labour-lib-dems

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4 minutes ago, RidingPie said:

Here's an interesting article in the Guardian by John Redwood. In it he's saying that the 3 conservative defectors are just getting involved in a labour split and deflecting and ignoring the movement of the conservative party to the right (and the influence of the ERG not surprisingly). Oddly at the end he encourages other conservatives thinking of leaving to join the lib dems instead!

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/feb/22/tory-independent-group-labour-lib-dems

Mmm, a decent read is that, I for one can't argue with any of his sentiments, especially the point about calling by elections in the seats of the defectors.

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8 minutes ago, Shadow said:

It would be so funny as to almost make the whole sorry debacle worth while :biggrin:

Practicing my lines now: 

- Rejoining the EU is a Brexiteer's plan all along, it'll fix the rebate issue because if the project reality stuff all comes true then we'll be in the sick-man category where they'll give us money.

- I can't wait to get in the EU so I don't have to keep changing my English £ for Euros for when I go to Belfast and Edinburgh

And so on. :D


“Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime" - Mark Twain

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1 hour ago, Maximus Decimus said:

There was an interesting discussion on Radio 4 about the chances of this new IG group and some of the issues they face. The conclusion was that they stand very little chance of creating a lasting party and this I can understand and would even agree with; the odds are certainly stacked against them. 

However, the one thing they didn't really touch on was Brexit. If a no-deal Brexit was to happen with the expected dire consequences you'd have to think that the Tories would take most of the blame. Both for being the main proponents of Brexit and/or for apparently mishandling Brexit. 

The main beneficiaries would usually be Labour but the unpopularity of Corbyn and the idea of shared blame for not preventing it could leave a vacuum.

This could present an opportunity for a Macron style new party to get an unexpected victory purely because they are an alternative and free of blame. IG would seem naturally placed but I also think there would be space for a UKIP or Farage led party claiming that they'd been sabotaged. 

A no-deal Brexit is a sufficient political event that it could break up the status quo.

 

 

I'm still betting on a last-minute deal that somehow gets through Parliament.

The Tories are deeply conscious of wanting to hang on to power and I think the recalcitrants will ultimately be brought into line, while the government will scrape together enough support from elsewhere in the Commons to pass the vote.

The alternative of no-deal will possibly lead to a further exodus from the Tories into the IG, with unforeseen consequences. I'm not sure any of them could stand that.

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2 hours ago, ckn said:

I wouldn't be surprised if she took her LBC 10-1 slot today to let rip on that subject.

Are LBC sponsoring you this week?


I can confirm 30+ less sales for Scotland vs Italy at Workington, after this afternoons test purchase for the Tonga match, £7.50 is extremely reasonable, however a £2.50 'delivery' fee for a walk in purchase is beyond taking the mickey, good luck with that, it's cheaper on the telly.

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Just now, Just Browny said:

Are LBC sponsoring you this week?

I wish!  It's half-term meaning I'm working at home all week with some daft evening meetings in central London fitted in.  Not often I get this much radio time in.

It's just a damnably lucky set of guest hosts they've got this week in that slot.

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“Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry, and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime" - Mark Twain

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