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2 minutes ago, Bleep1673 said:

Five year average for a Virus that's been around for less than 12 months? Fake news warning.

I think the figure is for all deaths from all causes over the last 5 years.

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2 minutes ago, JohnM said:

Quite so.  Day to day and week to week comparisons are best in my view, as long as the basis is not changed.

Who knows in the end what the  real figure will be?

What's worrying about the wekely figures is that a significant number of people who are part of the huge rise over the past 5 year average are not down as having died of COVID-19. This could mean anything -

  • That they did have it but were undiagnosed (it killed them silently) on the death certificate
  • That lockdown is causing it
  • Something else as yet unknown

If several thousand people are dying extra per week non-COVID we could do with knowing why, but we may not know why for years. Another factor in the nightmare equation of keeping the lockdown going.


"I am the avenging angel; I come with wings unfurled, I come with claws extended from halfway round the world. I am the God Almighty, I am the howling wind. I care not for your family; I care not for your kin. I come in search of terror, though terror is my own; I come in search of vengeance for crimes and crimes unknown. I care not for your children, I care not for your wives, I care not for your country, I care not for your lives." - (c) Jim Boyes - "The Avenging Angel"

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Just now, JohnM said:

I think the figure is for all deaths from all causes over the last 5 years.

This would be a better answer to the "How many people has it killed?" if it weren't for the huge anomaly I discussed above. 


"I am the avenging angel; I come with wings unfurled, I come with claws extended from halfway round the world. I am the God Almighty, I am the howling wind. I care not for your family; I care not for your kin. I come in search of terror, though terror is my own; I come in search of vengeance for crimes and crimes unknown. I care not for your children, I care not for your wives, I care not for your country, I care not for your lives." - (c) Jim Boyes - "The Avenging Angel"

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2 minutes ago, JohnM said:

I think the figure is for all deaths from all causes over the last 5 years.

ALL deaths, from ALL causes? I think it's more than that

Edited by Bleep1673

Sex and Money are like Oxygen

They're not important until you're not getting enough.

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1 minute ago, tim2 said:

What's worrying about the wekely figures is that a significant number of people who are part of the huge rise over the past 5 year average are not down as having died of COVID-19. This could mean anything -

  • That they did have it but were undiagnosed (it killed them silently) on the death certificate
  • That lockdown is causing it
  • Something else as yet unknown

If several thousand people are dying extra per week non-COVID we could do with knowing why, but we may not know why for years. Another factor in the nightmare equation of keeping the lockdown going.

I strongly suspect you're seeing the knock on effects of both a very stretched health service and people not accessing healthcare that's not covid related.


Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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Just now, gingerjon said:

I strongly suspect you're seeing the knock on effects of both a very stretched health service and people not accessing healthcare that's not covid related.

They'd have to be "quick and clean" deaths like strokes and heart attacks, right? Cancer deaths are coming down the line, months and years away.

If I had chest pains today I'd be down A&E as quickly as I would normally.


"I am the avenging angel; I come with wings unfurled, I come with claws extended from halfway round the world. I am the God Almighty, I am the howling wind. I care not for your family; I care not for your kin. I come in search of terror, though terror is my own; I come in search of vengeance for crimes and crimes unknown. I care not for your children, I care not for your wives, I care not for your country, I care not for your lives." - (c) Jim Boyes - "The Avenging Angel"

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1 minute ago, tim2 said:

They'd have to be "quick and clean" deaths like strokes and heart attacks, right? Cancer deaths are coming down the line, months and years away.

That's fair. Dammit, my hunch may be wrong.

This almost never happens.


Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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9 minutes ago, JohnM said:

It's right - about 500,000 people died last year in the UK. Since we are in an "average" period (not winter or summer) we'd expect about 10,000.


"I am the avenging angel; I come with wings unfurled, I come with claws extended from halfway round the world. I am the God Almighty, I am the howling wind. I care not for your family; I care not for your kin. I come in search of terror, though terror is my own; I come in search of vengeance for crimes and crimes unknown. I care not for your children, I care not for your wives, I care not for your country, I care not for your lives." - (c) Jim Boyes - "The Avenging Angel"

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21 minutes ago, tim2 said:

It's right - about 500,000 people died last year in the UK. Since we are in an "average" period (not winter or summer) we'd expect about 10,000.

Range of number of deaths in week 15 over the last 5 years is 8493-12301 so 50% higher figure for 2020 than the highest in 2015-19.

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30 minutes ago, gingerjon said:

I strongly suspect you're seeing the knock on effects of both a very stretched health service and people not accessing healthcare that's not covid related.

There have been cases of parents not taking desperately ill kids to A&E because of fears over COVID-19, the kids later died. Some other cases of people getting classic heart attack symptoms not calling 999 because they think hospitals are too busy and it's only a sore arm. Same with strokes.

There's a genuine fear of infection causing people to shy away from healthcare on everything from "what's this lump, doctor?" to "my child is struggling to breathe".

The capacity is there for you!  For things you think won't kill you now, please call your GP practice in hours. For things you're not sure of, call 111. For things where you're in fear for your life, or someone else's, call 999. If they tell you that you need to be seen face-to-face then you can be sure that you'll be getting the very safest of environments. The systems are set to risk manage where the infected folk are kept away from non-infected as much as humanly possible.

There is NHS capacity for you as long as you're willing to handle it via telephone or video call for 90%+ of issues that you'd previously go see a GP face-to-face.

One of our areas of extreme deprivation used to have a 2+ week wait to see GPs, every practice in this patch is now "seeing" all patients in the same day. Yesterday saw 92% done via video/tele and the rest via face-to-face, this is a direct swap of last month at this time!

On whether you'll overload the healthcare system, you won't. Just do it.

If you need routine things from a repeat prescription to a new sick note, do it via the NHS App: https://www.nhs.uk/using-the-nhs/nhs-services/the-nhs-app/

If you don't have a smart-phone capable of this, your practice should have a website with an alternative e-consultation platform or records portal you can do this through.

If you don't have that capacity, you can still phone in.

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"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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1 minute ago, JohnM said:

You are right to be worried and no wonder. All of the media, print, broadcast  are telling us all every second of every minute of every hour of every day of every week that we must be worried

Going out much at the minute, John?

Why not?


Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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3 minutes ago, ckn said:

There have been cases of parents not taking desperately ill kids to A&E because of fears over COVID-19, the kids later died. Some other cases of people getting classic heart attack symptoms not calling 999 because they think hospitals are too busy and it's only a sore arm. Same with strokes.

There's a genuine fear of infection causing people to shy away from healthcare on everything from "what's this lump, doctor?" to "my child is struggling to breathe".

The capacity is there for you!  For things you think won't kill you now, please call your GP practice in hours. For things you're not sure of, call 111. For things where you're in fear for your life, or someone else's, call 999. If they tell you that you need to be seen face-to-face then you can be sure that you'll be getting the very safest of environments. The systems are set to risk manage where the infected folk are kept away from non-infected as much as humanly possible.

There is NHS capacity for you as long as you're willing to handle it via telephone or video call for 90%+ of issues that you'd previously go see a GP face-to-face.

One of our areas of extreme deprivation used to have a 2+ week wait to see GPs, every practice in this patch is now "seeing" all patients in the same day. Yesterday saw 92% done via video/tele and the rest via face-to-face, this is a direct swap of last month at this time!

On whether you'll overload the healthcare system, you won't. Just do it.

If you need routine things from a repeat prescription to a new sick note, do it via the NHS App: https://www.nhs.uk/using-the-nhs/nhs-services/the-nhs-app/

If you don't have a smart-phone capable of this, your practice should have a website with an alternative e-consultation platform or records portal you can do this through.

If you don't have that capacity, you can still phone in.

Our media have a role to play here. With their interminable misrepresentation of the  situation, they are actively discouraging people from doing as you recommend.

The last place any of us want to be at present is in or even near a hospital with no PPE and thousands and thousands of sweating, coughing and unprotected  Corvid 19 victims with one nurse and one doctor on duty.

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4 minutes ago, gingerjon said:

Going out much at the minute, John?

Why not?

Why do you ask? Nothing better to do?


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Flew into Oslo on sunday ...had a check at immigration (never ever had to go through immigration before in my ten years working in Norway) quick check ..well slow check really ..45 minutes to an hour..and I am allowed through.

Checking the international flights being allowed into Norway and it seems Amsterdam,London,Stockholm and Copenhagen are the only ones .Why I have no idea.

Before entering baggage reclaim I then have a temperature check and  a few questions regarding my well being from a doctor and thats it Im free to carry on.

Collected a company car parked in the car park drove a little over four hours to a rather isolated hotel where myself and six Polish workers (who came in by ferry and road through Germany,Denmark and Sweden) will now sit in Quarantine for 14 days. If we are clear we then resume work on 4th May.

I am not sure in anyone is actually checking we do the 14 days quarantine and travelling through Oslo city on the way down here it was a cross between the  Oslo Marathon,Tour de Norway and Crufts dog show .....there were that many people out enjoying the sun along the fjord side.

But Norway has seemed to have handled the situation pretty well,schools are opening up and people are allowed to travel to their mountain cabins from yesterday.

Workers are being allowed to re enter the country (under rules) but its going to be a while before I get home.

usually work 14 days on 14 days home but due to the 14 days quarantine regulations I am not allowed to leave the country or I have to start over .

So its looks like I will get 14 days holiday in Norway at the company expense after every 14 day rota until they relax the quarantine rules.

See how it goes .

 

 

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Scotland reported another 70 deaths today, following two very low counts the day before. Obviously the weekend lag is coming through, but if the figures play out in the same way across the rest of the UK, there is only a very slight drop since the peak. (New infections are dropping quickly though in Scotland by the looks of it).

It's speculation, and perhaps not a good idea, but it would show that we are far from out of the woods with wave 1 and any sense of relaxing things should be given a wide berth currently.

Edited by Northern Eel

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1 minute ago, Bearman said:

873 official figure for yesterday. ?

Just remorseless, isn't it?

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Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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3 hours ago, JohnM said:

Our media have a role to play here. With their interminable misrepresentation of the  situation, they are actively discouraging people from doing as you recommend.

The last place any of us want to be at present is in or even near a hospital with no PPE and thousands and thousands of sweating, coughing and unprotected  Corvid 19 victims with one nurse and one doctor on duty.

yep, at the press conference they keep encouraging people to use the NHS for serious conditions.., use, 111, 999, etc we have the capacity to treat, etc etc

Lost count at the number of press conferences its been said, but as you say people think its the worst place to be and so best take the risk,  It's certainly been one of the 4 death concerns of the CMO/CSO since it began.

On PPE, of course there's an issue with gowns or is it aprons, not sure which. Running low on stocks... and of course NHS staff would be concerned if stocks running low... but how many hospitals have actually run out and have no gowns...

just that given the relentless coverage of their being shortage of gowns I would have thought by now we would have a situation were some hospitals have absolutely non... I have't seen any media coverage of an hospital having non... only running low... if one had non I assume media would be all over it...

I guess I'm missing something.

 

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Just off a call to France. Shortages of PPE. Some distribution vehicles hijacked.  It seems that the health service in France has paid out million to China for tests, many of which don't work.

Lat week Macron announced his strategy to end lockdown.  All over 70s and those over 60s with severe condition to stay locked down until proven vaccine  available, probably some time next year. A civil liberty group delivered a writ to him saying that was illegal as it was discriminatory and he was forced to modify his strategy


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its significant that the amount of traffic on the motorways and general roads this week seems to have at least doubled or maybe even trebled compared to the last 3 weeks, its only Tuesday- whats it gonna be like by next Monday, firms are opening back up for the simple reason that other firms are or have done already, the lockdown is becoming a shambolic farce with no real direction or proper rules from the authorities 

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the grass may be greener on the other side of the fence but the crows are just as black

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17 minutes ago, graveyard johnny said:

its significant that the amount of traffic on the motorways and general roads this week seems to have at least doubled or maybe even trebled compared to the last 3 weeks, its only Tuesday- whats it gonna be like by next Monday, firms are opening back up for the simple reason that other firms are or have done already, the lockdown is becoming a shambolic farce with no real direction or proper rules from the authorities 

What companies are opening?

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48 minutes ago, Spidey said:

What companies are opening?

suppliers to the construction industry for one


the grass may be greener on the other side of the fence but the crows are just as black

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at one point last week gypsum plaster was more valuable than cocaine per gram 

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the grass may be greener on the other side of the fence but the crows are just as black

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