Olney defeats Goldsmith in Richmond Park by-election

[Saintslass]

He was campaigning very specifically on the Heathrow expansion (which he is against) but agreeing with every other government policy.

 

I can't see how that's not relevant to the moment.

The moment was brexit. 

[Saintslass]

It would be ridiculous if so many people didn't think that way and express their thoughts with regular monotony whenever anyone dares to say anything remotely pro EU. Just take a look on Twitter, Facebook and the comments sections of news sites.

Echo chambers all.

[JohnM]

Watched the unavoidable saturation coverage of Farron on Guardian TV today. Clearly the arguments are beyond the old fools intellect.

[Griff9of13]

Watched the unavoidable saturation coverage of Farron on Guardian TV today. Clearly the arguments are beyond the old fools intellect.

Old? I bet he's got a few years on you.

He represents the only political party that is speaking up for the 16.1 million who voted remain. That's quite a sizable constituency.

[Saintslass]

Old? I bet he's got a few years on you.

He represents the only political party that is speaking up for the 16.1 million who voted remain. That's quite a sizable constituency.

Not as big as the constituency which voted for leave though.

[RidingPie]

Not as big as the constituency which voted for leave though.

But not much bigger and that's split between 3 parties

[Bob8]

Not as big as the constituency which voted for leave though.

To be fair, that has been mentioned a few times.  Also that the people voted for Leave, where the other 16million+ are presumably merely primates.

[Saintslass]

But not much bigger and that's split between 3 parties

If the referendum vote had been based upon GE constituencies, the leave campaign would have smashed the remain campaign into the ground so I don't know what parties have got to do with anything.

 

Most of the referendum constituencies in England and Wales voted to leave.  If you translate that directly into a GE scenario, regardless of the gap between the winners and losers in each constituency, leave would have a massive majority in Parliament. 

 

It really doesn't matter which way you look at this, leave won in a democratic vote.  That is the way it is.

[Saintslass]

To be fair, that has been mentioned a few times.  Also that the people voted for Leave, where the other 16million+ are presumably merely primates.

As indeed has the number of people who voted remain, which is why I responded as I did.  What's your point?

[Bob8]

If the referendum vote had been based upon GE constituencies, the leave campaign would have smashed the remain campaign into the ground so I don't know what parties have got to do with anything.

 

Most of the referendum constituencies in England and Wales voted to leave.  If you translate that directly into a GE scenario, regardless of the gap between the winners and losers in each constituency, leave would have a massive majority in Parliament. 

 

It really doesn't matter which way you look at this, leave won in a democratic vote.  That is the way it is.

Yes.  I have accepted that and argued that.  Only a minority have not accepted it.

 

It is odd, that you consider a 52% vote your way an overwhelming mandate, yet when a minority of less than a quarter of Remain supports want to campaign against the result, you consider them to represent everyone in the Remain camp.

[Tommygilf]

It was from Wakefield, one of the solid Labour areas that voted for Brexit,in the flawed belief that all their problems were being caused by the EU and not the Tory government.

Do you realise just how condescending that sounds?

There were reasons other than "all our problems" why us Wakefieldians voted how we did. The highly emotive sense of British control being reasserted over laws and all the other reasons why people boted leave cannot be denied just because we're seen as being "all about immigration" and that "we can't get a hospital place because of eastern europe". Its just short sighted and quite untrue.

Furthermore, the rhetoric of the problems "created" by the Tories just isn't breaking through. Labour has run Wakefield council for as long as most people here care to remember, virtually all of our MPs are Labour. Yet even under the Blair Labour government a sentiment of being distanced from government persisted.

To the people of Wakefield, unfortunately, most politicians of either Labour or Tory parties over perhaps the last 25 years have looked and sounded the same, and by extension, not like us. This has continued to the extent that now many politicians views a far removed from that of the people they claim to represent.

I sincerely hope the Labour party get their act together and realise this is going on. The problem will be, as has already happened in Scotland, that by going for a demographic that has been described as anything from floating voters to Islington Socialists, they lose focus on their heartlands (something which some on the main forum have said about RL!).

[M j M]

Not as big as the constituency which voted for leave though.

But potentially smaller when it comes to a general election as analysis of the leave vote indicated it was to some degree skewed towards irregular voters - those who often didn't vote but made an effort for the referendum. Will they turn out in general election? Who knows; if it is fought on Brexit possibly they will.

[Trojan]

Do you realise just how condescending that sounds?

There were reasons other than "all our problems" why us Wakefieldians voted how we did. The highly emotive sense of British control being reasserted over laws and all the other reasons why people boted leave cannot be denied just because we're seen as being "all about immigration" and that "we can't get a hospital place because of eastern europe". Its just short sighted and quite untrue.

Furthermore, the rhetoric of the problems "created" by the Tories just isn't breaking through. Labour has run Wakefield council for as long as most people here care to remember, virtually all of our MPs are Labour. Yet even under the Blair Labour government a sentiment of being distanced from government persisted.

To the people of Wakefield, unfortunately, most politicians of either Labour or Tory parties over perhaps the last 25 years have looked and sounded the same, and by extension, not like us. This has continued to the extent that now many politicians views a far removed from that of the people they claim to represent.

I sincerely hope the Labour party get their act together and realise this is going on. The problem will be, as has already happened in Scotland, that by going for a demographic that has been described as anything from floating voters to Islington Socialists, they lose focus on their heartlands (something which some on the main forum have said about RL!).

Well writing as someone from a Wakefield postcode, who also supports Labour, I don't see how I could be condescending.  However it remains true.  All our woes have been blamed on Europe, from problems with the NHS to metrication.  All the fault of Brussels.  Day in day out, year in year out, throughout our membership of the EU it's been the same mantra.  And as Dr Goebbels said, tell a lie long enough and it becomes the truth.  The people of this country are far better off than they were before our membership and probably than they would have been had we never joined.  The case for Europe has never really been made.  The large minority who did vote to stay deserve better than they're getting from May & co is all I'm saying.

[Tommygilf]

Well writing as someone from a Wakefield postcode, who also supports Labour, I don't see how I could be condescending. However it remains true. All our woes have been blamed on Europe, from problems with the NHS to metrication. All the fault of Brussels. Day in day out, year in year out, throughout our membership of the EU it's been the same mantra. And as Dr Goebbels said, tell a lie long enough and it becomes the truth. The people of this country are far better off than they were before our membership and probably than they would have been had we never joined. The case for Europe has never really been made. The large minority who did vote to stay deserve better than they're getting from May & co is all I'm saying.

Really?! I thought it was Thatcher that was the source of our woes? Or was it the poor leadership of Trade unions? Or, even worse a democratic system that does not serve its purpose?

I'm not accusing you personally of it, but saying people on the leave side were uniformally voting because all woes led to Brussels sounds an awful lot like "stupid leave voters didn't understand what they were voting for and why" (epitomised by Tim Farron and the Lib Dems atm). This unfortunately is condescending. I don't blame people, its human nature to believe our own views are superior; otherwise we'd have no need for individual thought at all.

We have to now put aside whether we were leave or remain, we're all British and we'll all be leaving the EU and should be working together for the best possible deal. Political discourse now must exist in this context from both sides.

If it had been the same result the other way around, I'd have major reservations about voting for a party attempting to overturn the result in some way. Even UKIP only really gained ground when the effects of the quite significant Lisbon treaty became more widely apparent (30+ years after the original vote).

The case for Europe was made, made by Wilson, Thatcher, Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron and Clegg, but unfortunately it didn't persuade enough people on the 23rd of June.

[Bob8]

Well writing as someone from a Wakefield postcode, who also supports Labour, I don't see how I could be condescending.  However it remains true.  All our woes have been blamed on Europe, from problems with the NHS to metrication.  All the fault of Brussels.  Day in day out, year in year out, throughout our membership of the EU it's been the same mantra.  And as Dr Goebbels said, tell a lie long enough and it becomes the truth.  The people of this country are far better off than they were before our membership and probably than they would have been had we never joined.  The case for Europe has never really been made.  The large minority who did vote to stay deserve better than they're getting from May & co is all I'm saying.

We are also a minority.  We deserved a clearer referendum question, but that is in the past.  

[Tommygilf]

We are also a minority. We deserved a clearer referendum question, but that is in the past.

Agreed. The referendum was set up poorly, but wasn't contested at the time by MPs who gambled EU membership for political expediency in many cases.

[Trojan]

Really?! I thought it was Thatcher that was the source of our woes? Or was it the poor leadership of Trade unions? Or, even worse a democratic system that does not serve its purpose?

I'm not accusing you personally of it, but saying people on the leave side were uniformally voting because all woes led to Brussels sounds an awful lot like "stupid leave voters didn't understand what they were voting for and why" (epitomised by Tim Farron and the Lib Dems atm). This unfortunately is condescending. I don't blame people, its human nature to believe our own views are superior; otherwise we'd have no need for individual thought at all.

We have to now put aside whether we were leave or remain, we're all British and we'll all be leaving the EU and should be working together for the best possible deal. Political discourse now must exist in this context from both sides.

If it had been the same result the other way around, I'd have major reservations about voting for a party attempting to overturn the result in some way. Even UKIP only really gained ground when the effects of the quite significant Lisbon treaty became more widely apparent (30+ years after the original vote).

The case for Europe was made, made by Wilson, Thatcher, Major, Blair, Brown, Cameron and Clegg, but unfortunately it didn't persuade enough people on the 23rd of June.

There've been 40 years of the Mail, the Sun, The Star and the Express, running mainly spurious anti Europe stories. And as referendum day approached they became more and more shrill and manic, screaming every day about the hoards of immigrants that were about to descend on us.  It was bound to have an effect.  And it did.

[RidingPie]

If the referendum vote had been based upon GE constituencies, the leave campaign would have smashed the remain campaign into the ground so I don't know what parties have got to do with anything.

Most of the referendum constituencies in England and Wales voted to leave. If you translate that directly into a GE scenario, regardless of the gap between the winners and losers in each constituency, leave would have a massive majority in Parliament.

It really doesn't matter which way you look at this, leave won in a democratic vote. That is the way it is.

We were talking about constituencies though, and on that level that could boost the lib dems with a flawed FPTP system. I've repeatedly said the referendum shouldn't be rerun and that we should leave, so please get off your high horse!

[Griff9of13]

People keep talking about the threat to Labour from UKIP, but as things stand ATM I'm not convinced. "Eddie Hitler" Nuttall is no Farage, but more importantly Arron Banks has left taking all his money with him. If they can't find a replacement they are going to struggle to find the funds needed to campaign and properly conest all the seats where they think they have a chance. Also, depending on how brexit ends up, they may well have lots their raison d'etre by the time of the next GE, though the way things are "progressing" I very much doubt that.

[gingerjon]

 "stupid leave voters didn't understand what they were voting for and why"

 

What were you voting for incidentally?

 

I ask only because even the handful of Leave voters on here seem to have very different opinions on what a satisfactory Brexit would look like.

 

And even some Leave politicians seem a bit confused as to what was actually on the ballot.  Some are even claiming there was some kind of question about immigration on there.

[gingerjon]

People keep talking about the threat to Labour from UKIP, but as things stand ATM I'm not convinced. "Eddie Hitler" Nuttall is no Farage, but more importantly Arron Banks has left taking all his money with him. If they can't find a replacement they are going to struggle to find the funds needed to campaign and properly conest all the seats where they think they have a chance. Also, depending on how brexit ends up, they may well have lots their raison d'etre by the time of the next GE, though the way things are "progressing" I very much doubt that.

 

I read an interesting assessment the other day but I've not yet had chance to look into any data behind it.  The suggestion is that Labour voters aren't moving to Ukip in huge numbers but that non Labour voting working class voters are.  The Labour vote decline is more explained by much of its previous vote not turning out - and the decline in the working class north of the BNP, (some) Tories etc is mirrored by a Ukip rise.

 

Like I say, interesting.  And a welcome acknowledgement that doesn't seem to happen much that 'working class' is not a synonym for Labour and never was.

[Griff9of13]

I read an interesting assessment the other day but I've not yet had chance to look into any data behind it. The suggestion is that Labour voters aren't moving to Ukip in huge numbers but that non Labour voting working class voters are. The Labour vote decline is more explained by much of its previous vote not turning out - and the decline in the working class north of the BNP, (some) Tories etc is mirrored by a Ukip rise.

Like I say, interesting. And a welcome acknowledgement that doesn't seem to happen much that 'working class' is not a synonym for Labour and never was.

Sounds interesting, if you manage to dig it out would you mind sharing?

You're right on the working class/Labour thing. In the past we would never have had a Tory government without the support of working class Tory voters. "Class" is not a homogeneous group.

[GeordieSaint]

People keep talking about the threat to Labour from UKIP, but as things stand ATM I'm not convinced.

The risk is there; same with the prospects of other parties like the Lib Dems. Despite having a pretty woeful 6 months since the referendum, the UKIP vote seems reasonably consistent and if JohnM's link was correct yesterday are about to significantly increase their share of the vote in the Sleaford By-Election next week. Corbyn and Labour would be foolish not to treat UKIP as a real threat in many working class communities just as the Tories have found out in Witney and Richmond Park with the Lib Dems.

[Griff9of13]

The risk is there; same with the prospects of other parties like the Lib Dems. Despite having a pretty woeful 6 months since the referendum, the UKIP vote seems reasonably consistent and if JohnM's link was correct yesterday are about to significantly increase their share of the vote in the Sleaford By-Election next week. Corbyn and Labour would be foolish not to treat UKIP as a real threat in many working class communities just as the Tories have found out in Witney and Richmond Park with the Lib Dems.

Agreed. I was just thinking things aren't so cut and dried politically these days. Corbyn is a millstone around Labour's neck as far as I can see in may parts of the north.

[Saintslass]

Well writing as someone from a Wakefield postcode, who also supports Labour, I don't see how I could be condescending.  However it remains true.  All our woes have been blamed on Europe, from problems with the NHS to metrication.  All the fault of Brussels.  Day in day out, year in year out, throughout our membership of the EU it's been the same mantra.  And as Dr Goebbels said, tell a lie long enough and it becomes the truth.  The people of this country are far better off than they were before our membership and probably than they would have been had we never joined.  The case for Europe has never really been made.  The large minority who did vote to stay deserve better than they're getting from May & co is all I'm saying.

*yawn*