Football

[marklaspalmas]

1 hour ago, 17 stone giant said:

I'm a Southampton fan, so obviously I was delighted with the effort they showed. It's fair to say we rode our luck mind. On another day we could easily have lost that game 4 or 5-1. But you need things to go your way if you're going to beat the big boys.

The opposition fluffing chances and Macca having a blinder is not luck. Adams strike was good enough for 3 points. We March On.

[Mister Ting]

15 hours ago, gingerjon said:

Glorious Werder survive for another season in the Bundesliga thanks to the away goals rule.

*wipes lifelong supporter tear from eye*

Werder should be near the top, not struggling.

[gingerjon]

8 hours ago, Mister Ting said:

Werder should be near the top, not struggling.

The games I've watched, aside from the first one back where they/we were woeful, it's been quite hard to see why Werder are down the bottom. They've mostly moved the ball well and created chances, whilst being quite hard to score against. Even in the play-off, Heidenheim's second equaliser was with the last kick of the game and from a somewhat dubious penalty.

 

[17 stone giant]

10 hours ago, marklaspalmas said:

The opposition fluffing chances and Macca having a blinder is not luck. Adams strike was good enough for 3 points. We March On.

When a team with the quality of players that Man City have waste 26 chances, I think most people would recognise that there's an element of good fortune involved. Especially so if you've watched the game and witnessed some of the school playground style scrambles that took place in our six yard box.

I've just had a very quick look and I think City have only failed to score on four occasions this season (including cup matches), and are EPL top scorers on 81. Don't get me wrong - I'm delighted with the win and I'm more than happy for us to play that style of football now that we're safe from relegation. It made for a much more entertaining game than it might otherwise have been.

[Gerrumonside ref]

I think the xG (which rates expected goals based on quality of chance) can be informative when trying to assess these things.

Southampton (0.63) 1 - 0 (3.40) Manchester City

So you could say in xG terms that 3-1 City would have been the mean score based on the two teams quality of chance throughout the game.

https://understat.com/league/EPL

The beauty of looking at xG is that you can really analyse wastefulness in front of goal better than the more straightforward ‘shots on target’ stat.

https://www.goal.com/en/news/what-is-xg-football-how-statistic-calculated/h42z0iiv8mdg1ub10iisg1dju

Edited July 8, 2020 by Gerrumonside ref

[Tommygilf]

25 minutes ago, Gerrumonside ref said:

I think the xG (which rates expected goals based on quality of chance) can be informative when trying to assess these things.

Southampton (0.63) 1 - 0 (3.40) Manchester City

So you could say in xG terms that 3-1 City would have been the mean score based on the two teams quality of chance throughout the game.

https://understat.com/league/EPL

The beauty of looking at xG is that you can really analyse wastefulness in front of goal better than the more straightforward ‘shots on target’ stat.

https://www.goal.com/en/news/what-is-xg-football-how-statistic-calculated/h42z0iiv8mdg1ub10iisg1dju

Unsurprisingly given the relationship between Guardiola and Bielsa those Man City stats are almost exactly the same as what we've seen at Leeds. Huge domination of games and loads of chances on goal but some games whereby the opposition get 2 chances and score both and you lose 2-nil. Yet the same team against different opposition can come and win 3 or 4 nil a few days later.

Both play really excellent football but when teams are happy to sit nine players in the box they can become vulnerable to counter attacks and their own defensive lapses in concentration. Essentially, it works very well against sides that come out and attack as Guardiola/Bielsa will back their teams to be better in that head to head.

[Gerrumonside ref]

21 minutes ago, Tommygilf said:

Unsurprisingly given the relationship between Guardiola and Bielsa those Man City stats are almost exactly the same as what we've seen at Leeds. Huge domination of games and loads of chances on goal but some games whereby the opposition get 2 chances and score both and you lose 2-nil. Yet the same team against different opposition can come and win 3 or 4 nil a few days later.

Both play really excellent football but when teams are happy to sit nine players in the box they can become vulnerable to counter attacks and their own defensive lapses in concentration. Essentially, it works very well against sides that come out and attack as Guardiola/Bielsa will back their teams to be better in that head to head.

Be interesting to see how ‘open’ Leeds are next season in the Premier League, particularly against the top 8 or so teams.

Bielsa is a top level coach unquestionably and Leeds will deserve their promotion.  They’ll recruit as well as they jump up in class.

But as you say there’s a few worrying signs in defence which will be punished weekly in the Premier League with the superior finishing in my opinion.

 

[Tommygilf]

2 minutes ago, Gerrumonside ref said:

Be interesting to see how ‘open’ Leeds are next season in the Premier League, particularly against the top 8 or so teams.

Bielsa is a top level coach unquestionably and Leeds will deserve their promotion.  They’ll recruit as well as they jump up in class.

But as you say there’s a few worrying signs in defence which will be punished weekly in the Premier League with the superior finishing in my opinion.

 

Absolutely true, we need another CB and hopefully sign Ben White up on a full time basis also. Our problem is depth and real quality in certain positions so I think a Central midfielder, attacking midfielder and striker should be on the cards this summer also. People forget that other than a couple of good loan players/signings, this is essentially the same squad that finished 13th in the championship 2 years ago. Bielsa has improved these players dramatically so in terms of bang for buck Leeds don't have to go huge in the transfer market but do need to get players that work hard. Talk is Eduoard from Celtic is on the radar but its more about attitude than ability for me - see the JKA saga.

The game against Arsenal in January was interesting as it showed the defensive fragilities as well as the go out and win mentality. It'll be interesting to see whether Leeds go for the top straight away (as happened last time after promotion), as I don't see Bielsa's style working well in a park the bus relegation scrap.

[marklaspalmas]

3 hours ago, Gerrumonside ref said:

I think the xG (which rates expected goals based on quality of chance) can be informative when trying to assess these things.

Southampton (0.63) 1 - 0 (3.40) Manchester City

So you could say in xG terms that 3-1 City would have been the mean score based on the two teams quality of chance throughout the game.

https://understat.com/league/EPL

The beauty of looking at xG is that you can really analyse wastefulness in front of goal better than the more straightforward ‘shots on target’ stat.

https://www.goal.com/en/news/what-is-xg-football-how-statistic-calculated/h42z0iiv8mdg1ub10iisg1dju

Football, eh?

[tonyXIII]

20 hours ago, 17 stone giant said:

I'm a Southampton fan, so obviously I was delighted with the effort they showed. It's fair to say we rode our luck mind. On another day we could easily have lost that game 4 or 5-1. But you need things to go your way if you're going to beat the big boys.

That's a gracious viewpoint.

I think the role of luck is underplayed in sport. I know it evens out over a season, but a single game often swings on a lucky break. When City beat Liverpool, the first chance felĺ to Salah and his shot bounced out off the post. If it had gone in off the post, the game would have been totally different. City may still have won, but not so easily.

Good managers can pick players and tactics that shift the odds slightly in their favour, but they can't eliminate luck altogether. I think it was Bill Shankly who said, "I'd rather have a lucky team than a good one."

In any single game, luck can play a huge part.

Sorry. Forgot to add "Well done, Saints!"

Edited July 8, 2020 by tonyXIII

[DavidM]

Was it Palmer or Player who said “ the more I practice the luckier I get “

[tonyXIII]

25 minutes ago, DavidM said:

Was it Palmer or Player who said “ the more I practice the luckier I get “

Jack Nicklaus, I believe.

It is a truism. You can't eliminate luck completely, but you can shift the odds slightly in your favour by working hard and practising.

[17 stone giant]

I notice that Newcastle are the unfortunate victims of the Man City rebound.

Similar stats to the Saints game on Sunday, but Newcastle are losing 4-0.

[17 stone giant]

I thought West Ham were looking in good shape after their recent results, but if they lose tonight against Burnley that's really going to put them back in danger. The games against Watford and Villa are going to be very interesting.

[Gerrumonside ref]

Mo Salah has played 104 PL games for Liverpool:

104 PL games

73 goals

27 assists 

Phenomenal!

[DavidM]

At the other extreme , another truly depressing Everton  performance . They must be the only fans thankful they can’t go . Hardly in it at home to Southampton , getting the runaround , hardly stringing a pass together and trying to play on the break like they’re up against Real Madrid . Never used to play like that , however average they got stuck in and gave you a game . Very poor fare Carlo me old son . Has there ever been a team wasted as much money to go backwards

[HawkMan]

Answer to the above question is yes, Tottenham. Bergwijn and Ndombele , big signings and gone backwards big time. Though the Not -So - Special- One might be culpable to a degree. 

[DavidM]

I don’t know how much they cost but boy Everton have wasted hundreds of millions.Just a snapshot is Bolasie 25m , Davy Klaasen 24m , Tosun 27m , Walcott 20m , Siggurdson 45m , Scheiderlin ... Kean ... 20 odd mil etc . Richarlison 40 odd but at least gives some return . Now after zero progress they’re gonna need to do it again , and will take a big hit on the overvalued deadwood they need to shift . Mosh has thrown about 500 mil in already 

Edited July 9, 2020 by DavidM

[HawkMan]

Yes Everton have wasted a lot of dosh, but they ain't gone backwards,  because they were never "forward"  not since Kendall's days anyway. Sorry couldn't resist. 

Edited July 9, 2020 by HawkMan

[Tommygilf]

5 nil today from Leeds after a big win against Blackburn too. Could have been more.

72% possession as well 500+ passes vs 150. Total domination.

Swansea on Sunday then Barnsley next Thursday followed by Charlton. Hopefully it will be wrapped up by then but Brentford in 3rd are playing very well.

[Tommygilf]

14 hours ago, DavidM said:

I don’t know how much they cost but boy Everton have wasted hundreds of millions.Just a snapshot is Bolasie 25m , Davy Klaasen 24m , Tosun 27m , Walcott 20m , Siggurdson 45m , Scheiderlin ... Kean ... 20 odd mil etc . Richarlison 40 odd but at least gives some return . Now after zero progress they’re gonna need to do it again , and will take a big hit on the overvalued deadwood they need to shift . Mosh has thrown about 500 mil in already 

Hopefully with an excellent coach in Ancellotti he can make the team more than the sum of its parts.

[Gerrumonside ref]

Champions League draw fell kindly for PSG

[Gerrumonside ref]

Champions League draw for those who missed it:

Real Madrid/Man City vs Lyon/Juventus

RB Leipzig vs Atletico Madrid

Napoli/Barcelona vs Chelsea/Bayern Munich

Atalanta vs PSG

 

Semi finals:

Qtr Final 1 vs Qtr Final 3

Qtr Final 2 vs Qtr Final 4

[Gerrumonside ref]

Although I’ve said that PSG will be the happiest with the draw, they’ll also be the most ring rusty (Ligue 1 was stopped months ago) and this format of one legged matches means you could get a few upsets compared to two legged ties.  

[HawkMan]

Europa League  Quarter-finals, 10-11 August 

 

1. Wolfsburg/Shakhtar Donetsk vEintracht Frankfurt/Basel

2. LASK/Manchester United v Istanbul Basaksehir/Copenhagen

3. Inter Milan/Getafe v Rangers/Bayer Leverkusen

4. Olympiakos/Wolves v Sevilla/Roma

Semi-finals, 16-17 August

Winner of quarter-final 4 v winner of quarter-final 2

Winner of quarter-final 3 v winner of quarter-final 1

Final, 21 August

 

Edited July 10, 2020 by HawkMan