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Worst Case Scenario


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On 02/04/2020 at 01:35, OMEGA said:

From what I know of clubs owners, financial strength etc

I believe the clubs most at risk are

Salford: Owned by a fans consortium and running on a very small budget, no big money backers unless Marwan takes pity on them and helps them out.

Wakefield: No wealth in the boardroom & even less willingness to invest personal money into the club. They may well have low outgoings but I doubt they can sustain a lengthy lockdown. The one saviour might be a sale of players like Tom Johnstone, David Fifita to a bigger club (Leeds).

Hull KR: Like Wakefield they have little money in the Boardroom, Hudgells business has taken a bit of a mauling over recent years. Not much in the way of player assets to cash in on.

Castleford: Unless the Fulton Family want to loan the club more money they too could quickly find themselves on the brink. They do have a couple of players they could sell in Truman, McShane maybe McMeekin.

I think these are the most vulnerable clubs in the Superleague.


agree with your assessment but clubs can’t expect to be saved by a big transfer fee   

if this drags on some clubs may want to give big name players away Just to get the cost off the books

What about teams like Wigan. Rented ground, no assets and hefty player contracts draining cash.  
Under our full time pro business model all clubs are vulnerable. 

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8 hours ago, newbe said:

They will asking Oxford n Hemel to rejoin the League next ??

Funnily enough, part of what killed Oxford last time round might no longer be an issue. Not, for a fleeting glimpse of a moment in the glint of the milkman's eye, that I'm suggesting Oxford should, could, or would rejoin the league.

Can't, unfortunately, say more than that, but one of the big blows wouldn't IMO have happened if it had been now rather than then.

 

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I do not agree with the assessment of only 4 clubs being really vulnerable if anything they may be in the best position with lower overheads in the current situation, clubs with larger back room programmes and much higher wages including Marquee players etc some of the perceived big teams could be in real trouble especially when you look at their current liabilities and debts.

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3 hours ago, headtackle said:


agree with your assessment but clubs can’t expect to be saved by a big transfer fee   

if this drags on some clubs may want to give big name players away Just to get the cost off the books

What about teams like Wigan. Rented ground, no assets and hefty player contracts draining cash.  
Under our full time pro business model all clubs are vulnerable. 

With regard to player transfers, I’m comparing a clubs need for cash with that of a potential insolvency event. A good example of this is Wakefield Trinity who sold a number of players to reduce outgoings and generate a pot of cash. I recognise that it’s a bit different in that no club has an income but those with very wealthy owners could well agree to a transfer because under normal circumstances they wouldn’t stand a chance of recruiting the player in question. Tom Johnstone at Wakefield is a good example, a number of clubs have offered large amounts of money for him but he’s not for sale, however Mike Carter has a record of selling to pay the bills so it’s possible he’d sell Johnstone under these circumstances.

I understand that there’s a salary cap but I don’t think the RFL will prevent such a sale if it meant the selling club would go to the wall without the money raised.

Clubs like Warrington, Huddersfield, Leeds, Wigan etc with owners who have a personal wealth in the hundreds of Millions may well view it as getting their yearly transfer/recruitment done. The money could be payable immediately while the player remains with his current club until the beginning of the next season. 

Its just a thought on how some more vulnerable clubs could survive.

Lets not rule out sales to Rugby Union Clubs either, they wouldn’t be averse to signing a couple of high profile League players even as a good news story. 

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25 minutes ago, Forever Trinity said:

I do not agree with the assessment of only 4 clubs being really vulnerable if anything they may be in the best position with lower overheads in the current situation, clubs with larger back room programmes and much higher wages including Marquee players etc some of the perceived big teams could be in real trouble especially when you look at their current liabilities and debts.

I wasn’t saying they were the ONLY vulnerable teams but they are the MOST vulnerable.

Employees are being ‘furloughed’ some are being ‘laid off’ making them eligible for 80% of their salary. This alleviates the the overheads As does the reduction in rent of a stadium, training facilities, education centres etc because they’re not using them.

Do you honestly think Leeds are more vulnerable than Wakefield, or that Simon Moran who’s reportedly worth around £300Million will let Warrington go bust? Ken Davy £260Million, Ian Lenighan £120Million etc..

By comparison Mike Carter is worth around £2.5Million and (IMO) is only still there trying to get his initial £260k+ investment back out at some stage. He’s not able or willing to put money in to save the club and is on record saying if Trinity got relegated he’d walk away.

My Hope is that everyone makes it through but some SL clubs are MORE vulnerable than others and I dread to think how the Championship and Championship One clubs are coping.

 

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4 hours ago, scotchy1 said:

It's a disaster if to do that we clubs lose assets or we lose clubs on whom the broadcast value is based

Also the players taking a big financial hit this year means we would probably lose players. 

Asset protection is the main issue - that means stadiums and training grounds for those that own them outright - many don't. For those that do, there are enough loan and protection schemes to ensure that no stadium will be sold by creditors for housing becasue of a club's short term cash flow issues. Govts and councils wouldn't allow it. 

The clubs are just repositories of fan interest. They may get reformed, but we've seen that many times before. TV contracts will be able to be fullfilled, whether by newcos or oldcos, Sky won't mind. And as I said above, I don't see administrations meaning clubs getting pushed into L1 in these extraordinary circumstances. 

As for players, I'm not sure what you mean by "lost"? They may get released from contracts over this, but the options aren't great for most. NRL or union have their own similar issues, as does the building site. If it's just one summer lost, there may be a shuffling around of players by the time we play again, but most will be there at one club or another in 2021. 

I'm certainly not denying there will be a lot of change in the sport over the next 6 months - but the sum total of clubs and players overall may well be about the same.

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14 hours ago, GUBRATS said:

 

Serves no purpose 

I personally can’t say I am a fan of mergers.

However the situation along with of course the changes that are coming in rugby league ie the no doubt loss of central funding for non SL clubs may well force mergers to happen.

I do think that within the next 2-3 years the landscape in rugby league will be very different to what it is now.

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Even if Argyle was to lose interest and walk away, the Wolfpack are enough of a success that either Rogers or Bell would gobble them up for cheap programming. An entire team for less than they pay one top level MLB/NBA/NHL star.

Not that I think he's going to do that. He might even see opportunity here. With other clubs getting into financial difficulties during an extended layoff he might be able to make them loans to tide them over in return for 'future considerations'. David Argyle and TWP could well emerge as the saviour of SL.

For some here, that would be worst case scenario.

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On 02/04/2020 at 09:47, Chronicler of Chiswick said:

It takes money to run even an amateur club, with a number having clubhouses to keep them going, a luxury that teams like Coventry,NW Crusaders and West Wales don't have so it'd probably be the end of them. Not sure about the Skolars, though.

Expect to see Coventry Bears playing when we get going again.

Don't know if other clubs in League 1 are in a similar position.

Coventry Bears Club Update: Corona Virus

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Considering their biggest "failing" has been the TV side, getting bought by on the two largest sports networks in the country absolutely would be. 

They already have the proven gameday attendance,  social media presence, coaching and players at the very least a starting point. It's really a turnkey operation for MLSE to acquire.

 

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1 hour ago, TheReaper said:

Considering their biggest "failing" has been the TV side, getting bought by on the two largest sports networks in the country absolutely would be. 

They already have the proven gameday attendance,  social media presence, coaching and players at the very least a starting point. It's really a turnkey operation for MLSE to acquire.

 

And once the current TV rights package is sorted out and TWP are in control of that they will be a much more attractive business acquisition/partner.

There is opportunity here gentlemen and Argyle and TWP are in a good position to take full advantage of that. 

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20 hours ago, TIWIT said:

Even if Argyle was to lose interest and walk away, the Wolfpack are enough of a success that either Rogers or Bell would gobble them up for cheap programming. An entire team for less than they pay one top level MLB/NBA/NHL star.

Not that I think he's going to do that. He might even see opportunity here. With other clubs getting into financial difficulties during an extended layoff he might be able to make them loans to tide them over in return for 'future considerations'. David Argyle and TWP could well emerge as the saviour of SL.

For some here, that would be worst case scenario.

I could see Rogers sell the Jays and build a nice smallish stadium for TWP around 20,000.

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39 minutes ago, Jayme2020 said:

I could see Rogers sell the Jays and build a nice smallish stadium for TWP around 20,000.

And the Argos. BMO Field is way too big for them.

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13 hours ago, Yorks Tim said:

Expect to see Coventry Bears playing when we get going again.

Don't know if other clubs in League 1 are in a similar position.

Coventry Bears Club Update: Corona Virus

Sounds to me like Coventry have the right idea by paying match fees only.

My question out of interest then is what about training?

Do players get paid for training be it an”attendance allowance”or travel expenses?

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13 hours ago, Yorks Tim said:

Expect to see Coventry Bears playing when we get going again.

Don't know if other clubs in League 1 are in a similar position.

Coventry Bears Club Update: Corona Virus

  That is an old update.

   There has been more worrying news since then - https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/mar/28/coventry-rugby-club-take-legal-advice-as-coronavirus-insurance-row-escalates

   As Coventry Bears play at their stadium I hope things go okay in that respect.

     No reserves,but resilience,persistence and determination are omnipotent.                       

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2 hours ago, Angelic Cynic said:

  That is an old update.

   There has been more worrying news since then - https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/mar/28/coventry-rugby-club-take-legal-advice-as-coronavirus-insurance-row-escalates

   As Coventry Bears play at their stadium I hope things go okay in that respect.

Wow! Insurance companies are pure ####.

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