Worst Case Scenario

[TIWIT 1,300]

Say the 2020 season is cancelled entirely. Sky agrees to air games in 2021 but will not pay anyone for the cancelled 2020 games.

Who will be left in 2021?

I am referring to the game at the professional level. I am assuming most League1 and semi-pro Championship clubs will revert to amateur status, reorganise at that level and carry on, but how many of the current full-time pro teams will be forced to join them there and how many will be left in a reorganised Super League? 

[Robthegasman 265]

My fear is we will lose clubs.

 

[Eddie 1,850]

What is the best possible scenario?

[TIWIT 1,300]

Yes but which ones? I'm relying on those with more knowledge of the game over there to have a better idea which clubs have their financial houses in order so that they can weather the storm and who will be blown away.

Oh, and no assuming that there will be gov't help. I really doubt that will be forthcoming.

[TIWIT 1,300]

Just now, Eddie said:

What is the best possible scenario?

Season picks up sometime and continues on as if nothing has happened. Rather unlikely I think.

[doc 221]

Worst case is that the virus keeps coming back for a few years, and totally mucks up the sport.Then people get out of the habit of going to games.

Best is that this virus runs its course and disappears, then crowds go up because we've all missed RL so much.

[Toby Chopra 1,037]

43 minutes ago, TIWIT said:

Say the 2020 season is cancelled entirely. Sky agrees to air games in 2021 but will not pay anyone for the cancelled 2020 games.

Who will be left in 2021?

I am referring to the game at the professional level. I am assuming most League1 and semi-pro Championship clubs will revert to amateur status, reorganise at that level and carry on, but how many of the current full-time pro teams will be forced to join them there and how many will be left in a reorganised Super League? 

I'm not sure this is the disaster scenario you suggest. If it really is just one year lost, but things get going again in 2021, then the players have to take a big financial hit in 2020, and the clubs will be mothballed, but theyll just restart in 2021. And players will be re-signed. (albeit possibly for different clubs).  Where else are they going to go?

Provided games are played and fans return in 2021, pro (and semi pro) rugby can pick up where it left off. 

[Whippet13 618]

The worst case scenario is another 4 months of endless "what if" hyperthetical threads about a situation which has so many unknown variables and potential outcomes that answering them all would give Google's new quantum super computer a nervous breakdown.

[scotchy1 5,553]

30 minutes ago, Toby Chopra said:

I'm not sure this is the disaster scenario you suggest. If it really is just one year lost, but things get going again in 2021, then the players have to take a big financial hit in 2020, and the clubs will be mothballed, but theyll just restart in 2021. And players will be re-signed. (albeit possibly for different clubs).  Where else are they going to go?

Provided games are played and fans return in 2021, pro (and semi pro) rugby can pick up where it left off. 

Not sure everyone would make it if nothing else comes in. Fixed costs are still there. People need to live etc.

[RL does what Sky says 1,953]

Even if every team became amateur and even if we ended with less clubs, some would always be better than the others and they would then form the Super League (or whatever name you might call it).

Would tv companies still want to show it ?  I think so ...  at what level was netball, women's cricket or even darts and snooker when they first began to televise it ?  It wouldn't matter to them if the players were being paid or not by their clubs as long as they could show the best teams and players available at that time.

 

Edited April 1 by RL does what Sky says

[Chris Taylor 285]

Worst case? 

Easy. Rugby League Dies.

[Hela Wigmen 511]

Worst case? Thousands and thousands of people die. Rugby League, as any sport is, is completely secondary. Rugby League will survive. 

[GUBRATS 3,537]

7 minutes ago, Hela Wigmen said:

Worst case? Thousands and thousands of people die. Rugby League, as any sport is, is completely secondary. Rugby League will survive. 

Yes 

[Robthegasman 265]

48 minutes ago, GUBRATS said:

Yes 

Rugby league will survive in some capacity.

 I do think that the professional/semi professional side of things we will see a different set up emerge probably with new fewer clubs as some clubs will either sadly fold,go amateur or certain clubs merging.That will upset many people which is understandable.

One thing I think is certain and that is there will not be 37 senior clubs within the next year or two.

[Mr Frisky 686]

I think Sky will pay out just enough to keep most clubs aliveas as it will be in their longterm interests- as a result expect the next TV deal to be more or less handed to them on much reduced terms. 

Not so much blackmail - more, if they look after RL they will expect RL to look after them in return.

Either way this summers events will be felt in RL for at least the next 10 years. So by say 2030 we might just be back to where we were in January 2020.

 

[RL does what Sky says 1,953]

10 minutes ago, Mr Frisky said:

. So by say 2030 we might just be back to where we were in January 2020.

Oh no ... not back before 31 January and still talking about Brexit ??? 

[OMEGA 772]

From what I know of clubs owners, financial strength etc

I believe the clubs most at risk are

Salford: Owned by a fans consortium and running on a very small budget, no big money backers unless Marwan takes pity on them and helps them out.

Wakefield: No wealth in the boardroom & even less willingness to invest personal money into the club. They may well have low outgoings but I doubt they can sustain a lengthy lockdown. The one saviour might be a sale of players like Tom Johnstone, David Fifita to a bigger club (Leeds).

Hull KR: Like Wakefield they have little money in the Boardroom, Hudgells business has taken a bit of a mauling over recent years. Not much in the way of player assets to cash in on.

Castleford: Unless the Fulton Family want to loan the club more money they too could quickly find themselves on the brink. They do have a couple of players they could sell in Truman, McShane maybe McMeekin.

I think these are the most vulnerable clubs in the Superleague.

Edited April 2 by OMEGA

[TIWIT 1,300]

9 minutes ago, OMEGA said:

From what I know of clubs owners, financial strength etc

I believe the clubs most at risk are

Salford: Owned by a fans consortium and running on a very small budget, no big money backers unless Marwan takes pity on them and helps them out.

Wakefield: No wealth in the boardroom & even less willingness to invest personal money into the club. They may well have low outgoings but I doubt they can sustain a lengthy lockdown. The one saviour might be a sale of players like Tom Johnstone, David Fifita to a bigger club (Leeds).

Hull KR: Like Wakefield they have little money in the Boardroom, Hudgells business has taken a bit of a mauling over recent years. Not much in the way of player assets to cash in on.

Castleford: Unless the Fulton Family want to loan the club more money they too could quickly find themselves on the brink. They do have a couple of players they could sell in Truman, McShane maybe McMeekin.

I think these are the most vulnerable clubs in the Superleague.

Thanks. This is exactly the sort of thing I was looking for to get some idea of what clubs might be most vulnerable.

[Oldbear 86]

One area that Governments could intervene would be in restricting international travel. Given the way this virus spread from China it could be difficult to run a competition with teams from France and Canada in an immediate post Covid 19 world.

[Robthegasman 265]

5 hours ago, OMEGA said:

From what I know of clubs owners, financial strength etc

I believe the clubs most at risk are

Salford: Owned by a fans consortium and running on a very small budget, no big money backers unless Marwan takes pity on them and helps them out.

Wakefield: No wealth in the boardroom & even less willingness to invest personal money into the club. They may well have low outgoings but I doubt they can sustain a lengthy lockdown. The one saviour might be a sale of players like Tom Johnstone, David Fifita to a bigger club (Leeds).

Hull KR: Like Wakefield they have little money in the Boardroom, Hudgells business has taken a bit of a mauling over recent years. Not much in the way of player assets to cash in on.

Castleford: Unless the Fulton Family want to loan the club more money they too could quickly find themselves on the brink. They do have a couple of players they could sell in Truman, McShane maybe McMeekin.

I think these are the most vulnerable clubs in the Superleague.

You have suggested the Super League clubs most at risk.

What about clubs in the Championship and Championship 1?

Who do you think is most at risk there and why?

[ATLANTISMAN 151]

Worse case scenario is we are back to the good old days of part time players winning and losing money:)

Personally speaking i think even if a club goes bust they will just be replaced by another entity so losing clubs NO losing companies that run clubs maybe YES (I am sure many sports clubs would like to wipe out their debts and tax liabilities) 

The overseas clubs are maybe actually in a stronger position (Dragons/Toulouse) as they receive massive local municipal and regional government funding and Toronto DA is just mega rich way beyond any of the other SL owners.

The fans will flock back don't worry about that

STAY COOL AND POSITIVE EVERYONE:)

Paul

www.atlantisradio.uk (Sixties day/Classic albums night) 

 

 

[Hela Wigmen 511]

7 hours ago, Robthegasman said:

Rugby league will survive in some capacity.

 I do think that the professional/semi professional side of things we will see a different set up emerge probably with new fewer clubs as some clubs will either sadly fold,go amateur or certain clubs merging.That will upset many people which is understandable.

One thing I think is certain and that is there will not be 37 senior clubs within the next year or two.

You’re right. There will be 38 next year. 

[newbe 236]

1 hour ago, Robthegasman said:

You have suggested the Super League clubs most at risk.

What about clubs in the Championship and Championship 1?

Who do you think is most at risk there and why?

Think Skolars could go, due to the main director's resigning, Coventry possible to?

[Chronicler of Chiswick 899]

40 minutes ago, newbe said:

Think Skolars could go, due to the main director's resigning, Coventry possible to?

It takes money to run even an amateur club, with a number having clubhouses to keep them going, a luxury that teams like Coventry,NW Crusaders and West Wales don't have so it'd probably be the end of them. Not sure about the Skolars, though.

[RS 179]

10 hours ago, OMEGA said:

From what I know of clubs owners, financial strength etc

I believe the clubs most at risk are

Salford: Owned by a fans consortium and running on a very small budget, no big money backers unless Marwan takes pity on them and helps them out.

Wakefield: No wealth in the boardroom & even less willingness to invest personal money into the club. They may well have low outgoings but I doubt they can sustain a lengthy lockdown. The one saviour might be a sale of players like Tom Johnstone, David Fifita to a bigger club (Leeds).

Hull KR: Like Wakefield they have little money in the Boardroom, Hudgells business has taken a bit of a mauling over recent years. Not much in the way of player assets to cash in on.

Castleford: Unless the Fulton Family want to loan the club more money they too could quickly find themselves on the brink. They do have a couple of players they could sell in Truman, McShane maybe McMeekin.

I think these are the most vulnerable clubs in the Superleague.

I wouldn't comment on the vulnerability or otherwise of clubs but I really can't see many/any clubs having spare cash to spend on transfer fees and then there is the salary cap issues of those big earners coming in. I could only see maybe Wire spending hand over fist again there are the cap issues.

As a footnote even those owners with plenty of cash will have seen the businesses hammered, future earnings hammered and their savings in the form of shares and investments hammered.