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Saint Toppy

Our new position in the EU

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Can any of the Brexiters explain why the OBR, using their cumulative knowledge of the UK economy, macroeconomics and statistical modelling, have arrived to this conclusion?

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I wonder about the cost of this ego-trip from May and "friends".  Couldn't she just step outside the front door of Number 10 and do it rather than another jolly to Italy for no purpose other than to be seen "doing something".

I didn't think she could do anything as badly as she managed the general election campaign but it looks like I've been proven wrong.


"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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Its hard to find out exactly home much the UK pays each year to the EU, and how much we get back in rebates and contributions as both sides seem to 'adjust' the figures to suit their own agendas, but I found this in the House of Commons Library site quoting figures from a UK Statistics Authority report -

The UK made a net contribution to the European Union of roughly £156 million a week in 2016/17. 

The UK's gross contribution to the EU budget in 2016/17, before the application of the rebate, totalled £16.9 billion or around £325 million a week.

But, as the UK Statistics Authority pointed out during the referendum campaign, the Treasury pays the UK's contributions to the EU after deducting the value of the rebate.  The rebate in 2016/17 was £4.8 billion. Subtracting this from the gross contribution gives a figure of £12.1 billion.  A further subtraction of the EU's payments to the UK public sector gives the final figure of £8.1 billion, or about £156 million a week.

The precise amount of money the UK sends to the EU is 'difficult' to calculate.

European Union payments that are made directly to the private sector, such as universities and research organisations, are not included in the Treasury's figures and therefore not reflected in the estimate of £156 million a week.  The UK organisations that receive this money directly from the European Commission, aprox £1billion per year, or just under £2 million per week  also includes funding for research and innovation as part of the Horizon 2020 programme, and money for education, training, youth and sport through the Erasmus+ scheme.

 

Edited by Jasper

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1 hour ago, ckn said:

I wonder about the cost of this ego-trip from May and "friends".  Couldn't she just step outside the front door of Number 10 and do it rather than another jolly to Italy for no purpose other than to be seen "doing something".

I didn't think she could do anything as badly as she managed the general election campaign but it looks like I've been proven wrong.

What frightens me is who will replace her.

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24 minutes ago, Jasper said:

Its hard to find out exactly home much the UK pays each year to the EU, and how much we get back in rebates and contributions as both sides seem to 'adjust' the figures to suit their own agendas, but I found this in the House of Commons Library site quoting figures from a UK Statistics Authority report -

The UK made a net contribution to the European Union of roughly £156 million a week in 2016/17. 

The UK's gross contribution to the EU budget in 2016/17, before the application of the rebate, totalled £16.9 billion or around £325 million a week.

But, as the UK Statistics Authority pointed out during the referendum campaign, the Treasury pays the UK's contributions to the EU after deducting the value of the rebate.  The rebate in 2016/17 was £4.8 billion. Subtracting this from the gross contribution gives a figure of £12.1 billion.  A further subtraction of the EU's payments to the UK public sector gives the final figure of £8.1 billion, or about £156 million a week.

The precise amount of money the UK sends to the EU is 'difficult' to calculate.

European Union payments that are made directly to the private sector, such as universities and research organisations, are not included in the Treasury's figures and therefore not reflected in the estimate of £156 million a week.  The UK organisations that receive this money directly from the European Commission, aprox £1billion per year, or just under £2 million per week  also includes funding for research and innovation as part of the Horizon 2020 programme, and money for education, training, youth and sport through the Erasmus+ scheme.

 

We were told clearly and unequivocally how much by the leave campaign. They even went so far as to share some of that highly accurate information on the side of a bus.

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I agree, the government's own reports on the impact of brexit must indicate it will be bad; if they concluded that the outcome was going to be positive you can be sure they would have been leaked by now and been all over the front pages of the pro brexit press:

So much for "democracy". :dry:

 


"it is a well known fact that those people who most want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it."

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2 hours ago, ckn said:

I didn't think she could do anything as badly as she managed the general election campaign but it looks like I've been proven wrong.

I'm beginning to worry about you ckn, you didn't think the Tories could make worse cock-ups than they already have and you didn't she could do something badly again ......

Either you need to remember to take your tablets and be in bed by 8 or take more water with it!;)

As for Mrs May I think it's just as well Saintslass and other Tories feel the way they do about their party and because you need to be talented in the suspension of disbelief market to go along with what's taking place and even finding it acceptable or logical.

"I just going to Siberia to announce something about the people of Oldham north!"  It's like a Goon Show script lost in the Beeb archives, blow the dust off and from then on it's all incredibly stupid, pointless, largely exaggerated, undoubtedly flawed, all the characters are ludicrous, the script is senseless and all you can do is laugh!:laugh::lol:

Edited by Oxford

RL1.JPG.6a10be03c5528650e188f078de012540.JPG

 

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59 minutes ago, Oxford said:

I'm beginning to worry about you ckn, you didn't think the Tories could make worse cock-ups than they already have and you didn't she could do something badly again ......

Either you need to remember to take your tablets and be in bed by 8 or take more water with it!;)

As for Mrs May I think it's just as well Saintslass and other Tories feel the way they do about their party and because you need to be talented in the suspension of disbelief market to go along with what's taking place and even finding it acceptable or logical.

"I just going to Siberia to announce something about the people of Oldham north!"  It's like a Goon Show script lost in the Beeb archives, blow the dust off and from then on it's all incredibly stupid, pointless, largely exaggerated, undoubtedly flawed, all the characters are ludicrous, the script is senseless and all you can do is laugh!:laugh::lol:

In the interests of balance.....

There will be claims that Brexit was cocked up by closet Remainers who had no real belief in making it work.  And, there is some truth in that. 

A quick divorce, cliff edge stuff and sod article 50.  Drop all tariffs immediately, stick with EU regulations (quietly) and drop off immigration limits.  We have no barriers for the EU, so if they want them, they have to put them up and justify it to their own domestic businesses. 

If you believe in Brexit, that is a clear way ahead.

And it would not be given a chance as most of the Government and the vast majority of business and the civil service do not believe in it (nor do I, but, y'know.....).


"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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41 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

In the interests of balance.....

There will be claims that Brexit was cocked up by closet Remainers who had no real belief in making it work.  And, there is some truth in that. 

A quick divorce, cliff edge stuff and sod article 50.  Drop all tariffs immediately, stick with EU regulations (quietly) and drop off immigration limits.  We have no barriers for the EU, so if they want them, they have to put them up and justify it to their own domestic businesses. 

If you believe in Brexit, that is a clear way ahead.

And it would not be given a chance as most of the Government and the vast majority of business and the civil service do not believe in it (nor do I, but, y'know.....).

I don't think it needs balance Bob there are lots of silly claims and more or less all of the are complete nonsense, and deception.

Blaming remainers of what ever hue is one of them.

It may suit their supporters but Brexit is the Government's own cock-up, architecture and ball to carry over the line.

 

I'm not sure that those people you mention don't believe in it but there are lots of people who didn't want to look like they wanted Brexit but did little to prevent it.

 

Edited by Oxford

RL1.JPG.6a10be03c5528650e188f078de012540.JPG

 

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4 hours ago, Jasper said:

Its hard to find out exactly home much the UK pays each year to the EU, and how much we get back in rebates and contributions as both sides seem to 'adjust' the figures to suit their own agendas, but I found this in the House of Commons Library site quoting figures from a UK Statistics Authority report -

The UK made a net contribution to the European Union of roughly £156 million a week in 2016/17. 

The UK's gross contribution to the EU budget in 2016/17, before the application of the rebate, totalled £16.9 billion or around £325 million a week.

But, as the UK Statistics Authority pointed out during the referendum campaign, the Treasury pays the UK's contributions to the EU after deducting the value of the rebate.  The rebate in 2016/17 was £4.8 billion. Subtracting this from the gross contribution gives a figure of £12.1 billion.  A further subtraction of the EU's payments to the UK public sector gives the final figure of £8.1 billion, or about £156 million a week.

The precise amount of money the UK sends to the EU is 'difficult' to calculate.

European Union payments that are made directly to the private sector, such as universities and research organisations, are not included in the Treasury's figures and therefore not reflected in the estimate of £156 million a week.  The UK organisations that receive this money directly from the European Commission, aprox £1billion per year, or just under £2 million per week  also includes funding for research and innovation as part of the Horizon 2020 programme, and money for education, training, youth and sport through the Erasmus+ scheme.

 

Ref the above.

I'm not wishing to be confrontational as I recognise that a lot of you have very firm views on the "folly" of the referendum result. 

The net cost of membership appears to be any number you like, but the lowest estimate appears to be circa £150,000,000 per week. Brexiteers seem to think that some ( perhaps a very wooly some) cost is worth it to leave the EU.

What figure would the remain side balk at as being just too much? Isn't £150,000,000 a frightening amount?.

As I say I'm asking as a genuine point of debate and hope that replies to this question don't degenerate  ( by either side of the argument) into sneering condescension.

 

 


Ron Banks

Bears and Barrow

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2 minutes ago, Bearman said:

Ref the above.

I'm not wishing to be confrontational as I recognise that a lot of you have very firm views on the "folly" of the referendum result. 

The net cost of membership appears to be any number you like, but the lowest estimate appears to be circa £150,000,000 per week. Brexiteers seem to think that some ( perhaps a very wooly some) cost is worth it to leave the EU.

What figure would the remain side balk at as being just too much? Isn't £150,000,000 a frightening amount?.

As I say I'm asking as a genuine point of debate and hope that replies to this question don't degenerate  ( by either side of the argument) into sneering condescension.

 

 

That £150m p/w (or £7.5bn-ish per year) is the cost to our government.  It's estimated that the benefits of the single market to the nation are around the £30bn mark per year out of the £240bn per year of trade we do with the EU, this comes from tariff-free trade and simplified excise arrangements meaning substantially lower costs of business for our companies both importing and exporting.  For me, that's a nice net positive for our country and we'll reclaim much of that £7.5bn in taxation anyway.

Then there's the other side, everyone's cagey about the costs of imposing a customs barrier at all our entry ports from the EU, including airports, docks and all passenger and trade entrances/exits.  The single estimate I've seen is around the £10bn mark to set up and £2bn per year to maintain (£1bn p/y for the 20,000 extra staff and the rest in other costs), I've no idea of the accuracy of that as I've nothing to compare it.  Then there's all the other government cost stuff from HMRC having inadequate staffing and systems to cope with even half of the expected new transactions to the grossly increased need for immigration officers and support staff.

This is why I get grumpy at all the attempts to over-simplify it to just make political points.  It's true that that £30bn estimate of single market benefits to the UK won't disappear overnight but every business that moves its operations to the EU to get access to that single market comes straight out of that £240bn per year.  We still get complete radio silence on how the government plans to replace all the EU grants for everything from infrastructure building to agriculture.

So, if we really are simplifying it to that figure the government pays out as the single measure for "worth it", I think we really do get a bargain for that money.

I simply cannot see any scenario where we'll have new money to use after Brexit completes, even the most fantastic predictions of lots of money spare have to do so by utterly ignoring every cost I mention above and pretending they don't exist.

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"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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Brexit: PM bids to break deadlock with two-year deal offer

Theresa May will tell EU leaders there is a shared responsibility to make Brexit work "smoothly" as she attempts to break the deadlock in negotiations.

No, no, no, it really isn't. "We" (or to be more precise, the brexit fantastics) created this mess. They own it, not the EU and not the 16.5 million people who voted remain, it's up to them to take responsibility and create a workable plan or do the sensible thing and admit it can't be done without causing a great deal of economic and political damage.

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"it is a well known fact that those people who most want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it."

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I saw that headline too.  If that really is the main thing she's going to say then we're in a worse position than I'd thought.  We're way past the time for rally-style slogans and really need to have some actual 'solutions' of our own.  The three things we have to sort, and sort now, are exit payment (if any), the Irish border and citizens' rights.  On the latter, apparently, there has been a lot of disquiet about how the UK Home Secretary is happy to be in contempt of court with regards to how 'we' treat our foreign nationals.


Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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Even some Brexiters seem annoyed with the lack of knowledge -

 


With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

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Seems like Hannon and other want a 'Switzerland' brexit.  The hard brexit 'mob' within the Tory party don't want that.  That seems to be some of the dividing line.  Hannon and others who campaigned for brexit for years are now looking on with horror.  


With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

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21 minutes ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

Seems like Hannon and other want a 'Switzerland' brexit.  The hard brexit 'mob' within the Tory party don't want that.  That seems to be some of the dividing line.  Hannon and others who campaigned for brexit for years are now looking on with horror.  

Some of the most arrogant are the soft Brexiteers. 

They were happy to sell several varieties of Brexit at the same time, confident that they could insist on theirs afterwards.

It is also bizarre.  Before the referendum, I was arguing that the Norwegian models and Swiss models were terrible.  Brexiteers were arguing against me.  Now, they are arguing that they are terrible models.


"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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27 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

Some of the most arrogant are the soft Brexiteers. 

They were happy to sell several varieties of Brexit at the same time, confident that they could insist on theirs afterwards.

It is also bizarre.  Before the referendum, I was arguing that the Norwegian models and Swiss models were terrible.  Brexiteers were arguing against me.  Now, they are arguing that they are terrible models.

with a spirit of inquisitiveness I just googled "Norwegian model"

i suggest this is best done in the privacy of your own home

 

 

here all week folks  

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Just now, Shadow said:

with a spirit of inquisitiveness I just googled "Norwegian model"

i suggest this is best done in the privacy of your own home

 

 

here all week folks  

I also pulled that joke at the time.  Put in a link to Google Images too.

That might have changed the debate.

Edited by Bob8

"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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56 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

Some of the most arrogant are the soft Brexiteers.

Not sure about hard or soft.  But there are some Brexiters who seem to swing all ways and yet are consistently frustrated.


Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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I can imagine Angela Merkel today changing all her plans and getting ready to act after being inspired by Mrs May that it's Germany's "profound responsibility" to make Britain's leap into the abyss work.  The EU-wide change of direction will be amazing with countries like Greece going out of their way to put their problems aside and sort our problems for us.  They'll especially love to take their share of the blame if it all goes wrong.

Then they'll stop laughing and tell us "erm, no".


"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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5 minutes ago, ckn said:

They'll especially love to take their share of the blame if it all goes wrong.

The problem is that the swivel eyed brexiteers will, and indeed already are, put all the blame on a disastrous brexit on the EU and/or remainers. To which I say "suck it up; you voted for this, you won, you sort it out."

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"it is a well known fact that those people who most want to rule people are, ipso facto, those least suited to do it."

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1 minute ago, Griff9of13 said:

The problem is that the swivel eyed brexiteers will, and indeed already are, put all the blame on a disastrous brexit on the EU and/or remainers. To which I say "suck it up; you voted for this, you won, you sort it out."

I take a different approach these days, I'm willing to just suck it up myself and help sort it out if only they'd tell us things in more substance than "Brexit means Brexit!" and variations of "we'll have our cake and eat it!" on every subject.  And yes, every "briefing paper" they've released has about the same level of real details than "Brexit means Brexit".

Just tell us what you want to do, we'll undoubtedly get angry over it but then the responsible folk who can make things work will knuckle down and do it to the best of their ability.  The utter silence over fundamental stuff that has nothing to do with the EU negotiations, such as farming subsidies, is frightening with only 18 months to go.


"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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38 minutes ago, gingerjon said:

Not sure about hard or soft.  But there are some Brexiters who seem to swing all ways and yet are consistently frustrated.

Normally the "Against it" vote sides a little more with the left.  Here, "Against It" was with the EU.


"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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Do ever get the impression that Theresa May would like to go all Al Capone with a baseball bat on her ministers?  Grayling today stealing the thunder by insisting free movement ends in 2019.  Just shut the **** up and remember that you're not the Prime Minister!


"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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