Dave T Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, Les Tonks Sidestep said: Because the 'green shoots' (no comment as to whether they are yet real or not) will not be reflected in the daily death figures until some time afterwards. Yes, I understand what they are getting at as I'm following it pretty closely, but this is the problem with giving these guys the platform, they are methodical and all about process, numbers and the trends, which is a bit tone deaf at times. It is the kind of coldness that sees them talking about herd immunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gingerjon Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 13 minutes ago, Dave T said: I think they are all making a bit of a pigs ear of it tbh. We announce these random numbers, the scientists talk about green shoots and then we find out it was a record day of deaths. Ace. I could also do without the, "Look, at what the (for example) Faroe Islands have done. Why couldn't we do that? Proper leadership there." Have a think about it. Not all comparisons are helpful. Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ckn Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 17 minutes ago, Jasper said: Cheers for the update, think I am just trying to look out for any bit of 'good news' from this awful situation. It is "good news" in a way, it shows that we're getting it right in terms of the NHS responding to the political and cultural environment of the UK's lockdown. We've had not a single situation where we've had to choose between patients, compare that against Italy and Spain. Again, that's because we've had a couple of weeks more preparation time and can learn from them. "When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave T Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 13 minutes ago, gingerjon said: I could also do without the, "Look, at what the (for example) Faroe Islands have done. Why couldn't we do that? Proper leadership there." Have a think about it. Not all comparisons are helpful. Was interesting to hear praise for Germany, saying we could have learnt from their approach to testing. Well no, many were calling testing inadequacies 6 weeks ago when the experts were saying it was unnecessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Les Tonks Sidestep Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 26 minutes ago, Dave T said: Yes, I understand what they are getting at as I'm following it pretty closely, but this is the problem with giving these guys the platform, they are methodical and all about process, numbers and the trends, which is a bit tone deaf at times. It is the kind of coldness that sees them talking about herd immunity. They've got to do it that way. Without their analysis everyone (well most) would just look at the death trend which could suggest the lockdown is making things worse. If there wasn't a 'look this is working' approach there'd be many more idiots deciding that social distancing didn't apply to them as there was no point to doing it. Don't make the mistake politicians usually do that the general populace is intelligent and rational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ivans82 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 4 hours ago, ckn said: Live in West Cumbria and have noticed the hotspots are along the M6 i.e.Carlisle , Penrith and the south lakes , in other words where tourists and visitors are more likely to appear . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave T Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, Les Tonks Sidestep said: They've got to do it that way. Without their analysis everyone (well most) would just look at the death trend which could suggest the lockdown is making things worse. If there wasn't a 'look this is working' approach there'd be many more idiots deciding that social distancing didn't apply to them as there was no point to doing it. Don't make the mistake politicians usually do that the general populace is intelligent and rational. Again, I understand why, but the execution is terrible. Talking about herd immunity and green shoots when numbers are increasing requires intelligence and rational thinking to follow, that isn't the level these press conferences work at. Particularly when the media then follows that up with q's about relaxing lockdown and opening for business. The reluctance to announce an extension on top of the above is once again creating a confusing message. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Man of Kent Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Trouble is really we aren’t in the same boat. That’s the big myth with Covid-19. It does discriminate. Generally speaking, it discriminates against the old, the sick and the fat. My issue with lockdown indefinitely is losing sight of the main objective - easing the burden on the NHS. It’s never been been about preventing transmission and illness - that’s impossible. The other issue I have is national lockdown is a very blunt instrument for a population of 56m English people with large differences of population density. Covid-19 is vastly more prevalent in London than, say, Kent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedford Roughyed Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedford Roughyed Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 21 minutes ago, ivans82 said: Live in West Cumbria and have noticed the hotspots are along the M6 i.e.Carlisle , Penrith and the south lakes , in other words where tourists and visitors are more likely to appear . Aren't they also the more densely populated areas? So hotspots would coincide with the bigger towns without tourists? With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ivans82 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, Bedford Roughyed said: Aren't they also the more densely populated areas? So hotspots would coincide with the bigger towns without tourists? Yes these are the areas of highest population but still think the M6 link is a factor . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redjonn Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 12 minutes ago, Dave T said: Again, I understand why, but the execution is terrible. Talking about herd immunity and green shoots when numbers are increasing requires intelligence and rational thinking to follow, that isn't the level these press conferences work at. Particularly when the media then follows that up with q's about relaxing lockdown and opening for business. The reluctance to announce an extension on top of the above is once again creating a confusing message. maybe but it hasn't been confusing for me... we must listen to different Press conf... the Q from journalists just add distraction from the primary message... which has been consistent. Why the issue to announce an extension, does it matter. It is clear to keep with existing restrictions. Even if the announce it the day before lifting, does it matter... or the day before extending... its absolutely clear what we need to do now. Your just looking for reasons it seems to me... As said at the press conf yesterday the Cobra meeting would be discussing at today's meeting the collective country (wales/scotland, etc) approach to a planned review of results from restrictions . Mainly because the Welsh "mis-spoke" about relaxing restrictions next week... I mean herd immunity was gone long ago and was never ever part of the plan... it was clear what the context was.. a journalist asked a question what percentage of population it would take for herd immunity to kick in... It has ever since been used and miss-quoted as the governments policy was herd immunity... even BBC oversea's correspondents still say it... just because some adviser says something doesn't mean its policy - thats given clearly at PR conf. For me the journalist cause any confusion... I mean even a Mirror headline got it wrong regarding restrictions... The press conferences have mainly been very clear.... Even the green shoots were absolutely clear... as to what evidence indicated such thoughts. The graphs also showed why the death rate would be higher for a while even if green shots turn out right... It couldn't have been clearer... Just the Questions distract as looking for sensational headlines. I guess we disagree... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mumby Magic Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Well I work in Tescos and there were people queuing all round the car park today. Like poor jokes? Thejoketeller@mullymessiah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob8 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 34 minutes ago, Man of Kent said: Trouble is really we aren’t in the same boat. That’s the big myth with Covid-19. It does discriminate. Generally speaking, it discriminates against the old, the sick and the fat. My issue with lockdown indefinitely is losing sight of the main objective - easing the burden on the NHS. It’s never been been about preventing transmission and illness - that’s impossible. The other issue I have is national lockdown is a very blunt instrument for a population of 56m English people with large differences of population density. Covid-19 is vastly more prevalent in London than, say, Kent. I agree. That is far too complicated a message for most people. "We should stay in because of coronavirus" is the level of sophistication we can expect to get over. In Denmark, people are pleased that the lockdown might be eased, but it is to accept an increase in the infection rate - the very same policy the British Government was pilloried for. London is obviously going to struggle hugely, with it being tightly packed, reliance on public transport and not many people can afford to not work. "You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Man of Kent Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, Bob8 said: I agree. That is far too complicated a message for most people. "We should stay in because of coronavirus" is the level of sophistication we can expect to get over. In Denmark, people are pleased that the lockdown might be eased, but it is to accept an increase in the infection rate - the very same policy the British Government was pilloried for. London is obviously going to struggle hugely, with it being tightly packed, reliance on public transport and not many people can afford to not work. My worry is we’ve waded into quicksand and will struggle to get out of it. If lockdown had come earlier - particularly in London - instead of faffing about we’d probably be in a better place. I fear we may now overcompensate causing weeks of misery and massive economic damage. (Disclaimer - I’m in a fortunate position, working from home on full pay. I just worry about my country’s future (and my daughter’s future)). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Les Tonks Sidestep Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 57 minutes ago, Dave T said: Again, I understand why, but the execution is terrible. Talking about herd immunity and green shoots when numbers are increasing requires intelligence and rational thinking to follow, that isn't the level these press conferences work at. Particularly when the media then follows that up with q's about relaxing lockdown and opening for business. The reluctance to announce an extension on top of the above is once again creating a confusing message. Whilst some of the scientific presenters are better than others they tend not to dwell on the death figures and as redjonn says their message has been pretty consistent. It's the journalists who consistently bring up the 'but the deaths aren't falling' line - they do understand the intelligence of the general populace! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bedford Roughyed Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 21 minutes ago, Mumby Magic said: Well I work in Tescos and there were people queuing all round the car park today. Bank holiday weekend! BBQ party time! Whoop Whoop! With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Les Tonks Sidestep Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 20 minutes ago, Bob8 said: I agree. That is far too complicated a message for most people. "We should stay in because of coronavirus" is the level of sophistication we can expect to get over. In Denmark, people are pleased that the lockdown might be eased, but it is to accept an increase in the infection rate - the very same policy the British Government was pilloried for. London is obviously going to struggle hugely, with it being tightly packed, reliance on public transport and not many people can afford to not work. I'm pretty sure the Dutch approach is also for a slow, controlled spread whilst trying to protect the most vulnerable so that there is adequate healthcare available for those who will need it. Their self isolation guidelines are also pretty lax compared to ours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob8 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 23 minutes ago, Les Tonks Sidestep said: Whilst some of the scientific presenters are better than others they tend not to dwell on the death figures and as redjonn says their message has been pretty consistent. It's the journalists who consistently bring up the 'but the deaths aren't falling' line - they do understand the intelligence of the general populace! It used to be considered rather OTT than I thought scientists should not speak to general journalists in the UK, but it is becoming more mainstream. Speaking to newspaper journalists on science is like sending your house keys the your local burglar for safekeeping. "You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wilsontown Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Probably not a bad time for a re-read of Ben Goldacre's "Bad Science" book. I've got a copy knocking about here somewhere... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave T Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 1 hour ago, redjonn said: maybe but it hasn't been confusing for me... we must listen to different Press conf... the Q from journalists just add distraction from the primary message... which has been consistent. Why the issue to announce an extension, does it matter. It is clear to keep with existing restrictions. Even if the announce it the day before lifting, does it matter... or the day before extending... its absolutely clear what we need to do now. Your just looking for reasons it seems to me... As said at the press conf yesterday the Cobra meeting would be discussing at today's meeting the collective country (wales/scotland, etc) approach to a planned review of results from restrictions . Mainly because the Welsh "mis-spoke" about relaxing restrictions next week... I mean herd immunity was gone long ago and was never ever part of the plan... it was clear what the context was.. a journalist asked a question what percentage of population it would take for herd immunity to kick in... It has ever since been used and miss-quoted as the governments policy was herd immunity... even BBC oversea's correspondents still say it... just because some adviser says something doesn't mean its policy - thats given clearly at PR conf. For me the journalist cause any confusion... I mean even a Mirror headline got it wrong regarding restrictions... The press conferences have mainly been very clear.... Even the green shoots were absolutely clear... as to what evidence indicated such thoughts. The graphs also showed why the death rate would be higher for a while even if green shots turn out right... It couldn't have been clearer... Just the Questions distract as looking for sensational headlines. I guess we disagree... Of course it matters on tinescales. Everyone else has been announcing it, yet we just keep going with a vague 'keep it going' message. Just now Raab has said we'll get an update next week. That isn't leadership for a nation that is worried and being asked for unprecedented actions. It isn't difficult to just roll it over for three weeks. Pretty much every other major country has given a date, and then extended where necessary. By not doing that, it invites uncertainty and it gives the impression that we may relax this next week. I guess we do disagree because on one hand you say the advisors are clear, but then claim herd immunity was not part of the plan, when it was one of these experts who actually explained that we would get herd immunity from our actions. The reality is when you are trying to get a message across to the whole population, you need to keep it simple. There should be not a jot of ambiguity around lockdowns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave T Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 44 minutes ago, Les Tonks Sidestep said: Whilst some of the scientific presenters are better than others they tend not to dwell on the death figures and as redjonn says their message has been pretty consistent. It's the journalists who consistently bring up the 'but the deaths aren't falling' line - they do understand the intelligence of the general populace! And this is the point. It is ok for people like us who probably spend a hell of a lot of time listening, reading, watching this stuff and then debating it here, but plenty are just taking snippets. We can't even get clear numbers now on a daily basis, the amount of numbers being attributed incorrectly can be put down to poor journalism, but then it should be presented in a foolproof way. I really like listening to the experts, but I think they have been given too much airtime and some of their messages have been miss-hits for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob8 Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, Dave T said: Of course it matters on tinescales. Everyone else has been announcing it, yet we just keep going with a vague 'keep it going' message. Just now Raab has said we'll get an update next week. That isn't leadership for a nation that is worried and being asked for unprecedented actions. It isn't difficult to just roll it over for three weeks. Pretty much every other major country has given a date, and then extended where necessary. By not doing that, it invites uncertainty and it gives the impression that we may relax this next week. I guess we do disagree because on one hand you say the advisors are clear, but then claim herd immunity was not part of the plan, when it was one of these experts who actually explained that we would get herd immunity from our actions. The reality is when you are trying to get a message across to the whole population, you need to keep it simple. There should be not a jot of ambiguity around lockdowns. I agree. The herd immunity is something all nations are counting on, but do not say. It is peculiar, that this Government is struggling with messaging. "You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dave T Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 Just now, Bob8 said: I agree. The herd immunity is something all nations are counting on, but do not say. It is peculiar, that this Government is struggling with messaging. This is exactly my point. I'd expect a scientist to understand this and be passionate about explaining the theory, to the general public it sounds horrendous. And we should never forget, the experts and their science said Cheltenham was fine and that Cas v Saints was something people were safe to attend. I'm aware that isn't exactly the case, but if it keeps being positioned that science is making every decision (it isn't), then it looks odd when we consider those events just 4 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gingerjon Posted April 9, 2020 Share Posted April 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Bob8 said: I agree. That is far too complicated a message for most people. "We should stay in because of coronavirus" is the level of sophistication we can expect to get over. In Denmark, people are pleased that the lockdown might be eased, but it is to accept an increase in the infection rate - the very same policy the British Government was pilloried for. London is obviously going to struggle hugely, with it being tightly packed, reliance on public transport and not many people can afford to not work. The Danish easing of lockdown might not also be the one that some people here want to see. For example, whatever else changes, there is no organised sport to be played, behind closed doors or not, until September (I read, please correct if wrong). Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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