Football

[HawkMan]

San Marino are technically two games away from qualifying for the 2026 WC!

16 European places are up for grabs for 2026. They'll be 12 qualifying groups,  only the winner will automatically qualify. The 12 runners up will go into play offs along with 4 Nation's League group winners,  from whatever tier, who haven't made the 12 auto qualifiers or runners up.  These 16( runners up and non  WC qualifying NL group winners) will be divided into 4 pathways, of 4, a one legged semi and one legged final to make the WC along with 12 group winners....clear!!

So San Marino will be one of the four NL participants in the WC play offs, providing there's no more than another three NL group winners not making it automatically into play offs via WC  qualifying group. If there's more than 4 NL group winners not qualifying for play offs, then FIFA ranking will count, which rules out San Marino as they're bottom of the rankings.

Edited November 19, 2024 by HawkMan

[JohnM]

Triggered by  that win by  San Marino (R= 210)  over Lichtenstein (R= 200)  someone has suggested a World Cup of the Worst, a World Cup of the 32 lowest ranking countries.

[RayCee]

On 16/11/2024 at 09:47, RayCee said:

I see a friendly international between the Football Union of Russia and Brunei ended 11-0. 

 

15 hours ago, JohnM said:

Triggered by  that win by  San Marino (R= 210)  over Lichtenstein (R= 200)  someone has suggested a World Cup of the Worst, a World Cup of the 32 lowest ranking countries.

At least Brunei might then win a match, perhaps the whole darn thing!!!

[RayCee]

City 0-4 Spurs. Oh dear. There's trouble at mill. 

[Father Gascoigne]

On 24/11/2024 at 06:32, RayCee said:

City 0-4 Spurs. Oh dear. There's trouble at mill. 

Funny that people think Pep is half-trolling when he says that football belongs to the players. This is what happens when you lose your two best players. Football is as much a team game as basketball (not very), which is why it never ceases to amuse when people drone on about the quality of a 'squad'. 

Edited November 25, 2024 by Father Gascoigne

[OriginalMrC]

46 minutes ago, Father Gascoigne said:

Funny that people think Pep is half-trolling when he says that football belongs to the players. This is what happens when you lose your two best players. Football is as much a team game as basketball (not very), which is why it never ceases to amuse when people drone on about the quality of a 'squad'. 

Who'd have thought that poor little Man City would be so reliant on their star players. I genuinely feel sorry for teams that have to operate on a shoestring budget. 

[RayCee]

12 hours ago, Father Gascoigne said:

Funny that people think Pep is half-trolling when he says that football belongs to the players. This is what happens when you lose your two best players. Football is as much a team game as basketball (not very), which is why it never ceases to amuse when people drone on about the quality of a 'squad'. 

Losing top players always has some effect but I think there is a bit more to this than a couple of top players being out. Recent 1-4 and 0-4 thrashings seem to back that up. It is very common to lose players of high calibre during the season but still remain more competitive than this drop in standard and therefore the reasons surely run deeper.

It could be the team not adapting well to changes required with other personnel coming in. They may need time to reset the side.

If it's prolonged, then they need to look at why they have an inability to adapt. A team with depth and a flexible squad needs to deal with this sort of situation better. 

[Father Gascoigne]

5 hours ago, RayCee said:

Losing top players always has some effect but I think there is a bit more to this than a couple of top players being out. Recent 1-4 and 0-4 thrashings seem to back that up. It is very common to lose players of high calibre during the season but still remain more competitive than this drop in standard and therefore the reasons surely run deeper.

It could be the team not adapting well to changes required with other personnel coming in. They may need time to reset the side.

If it's prolonged, then they need to look at why they have an inability to adapt. A team with depth and a flexible squad needs to deal with this sort of situation better. 

It's like in any work setting. You can't replace one person with another and expect the same results. The level of competence varies even among the very best group of people. Having an expensive squad doesn't mean that the replacements will be like-for-like as the outliers are irreplaceable. But if you have several great players, it's easier to manage because at least one of them will likely be available. City have now lost five matches in a row, and the common denominator is that both De Bruyne and Rodri have been unavailable. 

To further illustrate the point, all 13 of Sir Alex Ferguson's titles had one of Cantona, Beckham or Rooney: elite playmaker-goalscorers. In the Premier League era, you can pinpoint the most important player to that title win without much thought:

• Cantona: 93, 94, 96, 97
• Beckham: 99, 00, 01, 03
• Rooney: 07, 08, 09, 11, 13
• Shearer: 95
• Bergkamp: 98
• Henry: 02, 04
• Lampard: 05, 06, 10
• Hazard: 15, 17
• David Silva: 12, 14, 19
• De Bruyne: 18, 21, 22, 23
• Rodri: 24
• Salah: 20
• Mahrez: 16

Most of these teams also had an elite all-rounder in midfield that was elite at breaking up play through tackling or positioning: Paul Ince, Roy Keane, Patrick Vieira, Claude Makelele, Michael Carrick, Yaya Toure, Nemanja Matic, N'Golo Kante, and Rodri. If they didn't have a great ball-winning midfielder, they usually had an outstanding centre-back that was a wall. Many of these teams had both. 

It's a long way of saying that great teams are built around an elite playmaker/goalscorer and a ball-winner in midfield. If there are examples of title winners without these two ingredients, there aren't many of them, and would count as exceptions to the rule.  

Apart from Makelele, no player mentioned won a title once they hit 33. The problem for City is that not only have they lost Rodri for the season, but De Bruyne is 33 and, worst of all, is coming back from injury.  

Anyway, I'm not suggesting the other players in these squads were rubbish. They had good to great squads, as their wage bills prove. But there's a difference between having a good squad and having the players required to win titles.

As for City during this poor run, they racked up an xG of over 2 in each of their last three games, so they're creating good chances, and could have won some if not all of those games had things gone their way. 

Two of the games they lost were against Tottenham, who keep a high line, similar to City. When City lose the ball, a team like Tottenham is usually in a very good position to exploit the space left behind the City defense. Spurs also press high, which means turnovers have a better chance of being punished. Had Haaland buried the great chances he had before Spurs scored, it could've been a different result. The other two losses were against Sporting CP and Brighton, again two teams who are very aggressive in how they press and how high they play. I didn't see any of the Bournemouth game so can't comment on how that was lost. 

I'm not suggesting City have regressed to the level of Southampton. But they lost the two most important cogs in how they function during this run, and one of them won't play again this season, while the other is past their prime playing-age. 

When you have an Arsenal with a spine of Saka-Odegaard-Rice-Saliba, who are all 25 or younger and almost pipped City to the title in the past two seasons, the outlook isn't good for City. Arsenal lost ground due to suspensions and injuries, but even 8 points behind Liverpool they're still a good shout to win this season. 

As for Liverpool, as long as Mo Salah is on the field, I won't discount them. He's 32 now but still performing at a high level. With both him and Van Dijk on the slow road to decline due to age over the next few years, Liverpool's future prospects don't look too optimistic, but their 'premiership window', to use Australian parlance, is very much open this season, not least because their closest rivals have up to now imploded due to ill-discipline and injury. 

[MattSantos]

12 hours ago, Father Gascoigne said:

It's like in any work setting. You can't replace one person with another and expect the same results. The level of competence varies even among the very best group of people. Having an expensive squad doesn't mean that the replacements will be like-for-like as the outliers are irreplaceable. But if you have several great players, it's easier to manage because at least one of them will likely be available. City have now lost five matches in a row, and the common denominator is that both De Bruyne and Rodri have been unavailable. 

To further illustrate the point, all 13 of Sir Alex Ferguson's titles had one of Cantona, Beckham or Rooney: elite playmaker-goalscorers. In the Premier League era, you can pinpoint the most important player to that title win without much thought:

• Cantona: 93, 94, 96, 97
• Beckham: 99, 00, 01, 03
• Rooney: 07, 08, 09, 11, 13
• Shearer: 95
• Bergkamp: 98
• Henry: 02, 04
• Lampard: 05, 06, 10
• Hazard: 15, 17
• David Silva: 12, 14, 19
• De Bruyne: 18, 21, 22, 23
• Rodri: 24
• Salah: 20
• Mahrez: 16

Most of these teams also had an elite all-rounder in midfield that was elite at breaking up play through tackling or positioning: Paul Ince, Roy Keane, Patrick Vieira, Claude Makelele, Michael Carrick, Yaya Toure, Nemanja Matic, N'Golo Kante, and Rodri. If they didn't have a great ball-winning midfielder, they usually had an outstanding centre-back that was a wall. Many of these teams had both. 

It's a long way of saying that great teams are built around an elite playmaker/goalscorer and a ball-winner in midfield. If there are examples of title winners without these two ingredients, there aren't many of them, and would count as exceptions to the rule.  

Apart from Makelele, no player mentioned won a title once they hit 33. The problem for City is that not only have they lost Rodri for the season, but De Bruyne is 33 and, worst of all, is coming back from injury.  

Anyway, I'm not suggesting the other players in these squads were rubbish. They had good to great squads, as their wage bills prove. But there's a difference between having a good squad and having the players required to win titles.

As for City during this poor run, they racked up an xG of over 2 in each of their last three games, so they're creating good chances, and could have won some if not all of those games had things gone their way. 

Two of the games they lost were against Tottenham, who keep a high line, similar to City. When City lose the ball, a team like Tottenham is usually in a very good position to exploit the space left behind the City defense. Spurs also press high, which means turnovers have a better chance of being punished. Had Haaland buried the great chances he had before Spurs scored, it could've been a different result. The other two losses were against Sporting CP and Brighton, again two teams who are very aggressive in how they press and how high they play. I didn't see any of the Bournemouth game so can't comment on how that was lost. 

I'm not suggesting City have regressed to the level of Southampton. But they lost the two most important cogs in how they function during this run, and one of them won't play again this season, while the other is past their prime playing-age. 

When you have an Arsenal with a spine of Saka-Odegaard-Rice-Saliba, who are all 25 or younger and almost pipped City to the title in the past two seasons, the outlook isn't good for City. Arsenal lost ground due to suspensions and injuries, but even 8 points behind Liverpool they're still a good shout to win this season. 

As for Liverpool, as long as Mo Salah is on the field, I won't discount them. He's 32 now but still performing at a high level. With both him and Van Dijk on the slow road to decline due to age over the next few years, Liverpool's future prospects don't look too optimistic, but their 'premiership window', to use Australian parlance, is very much open this season, not least because their closest rivals have up to now imploded due to ill-discipline and injury. 

This is well written, but i'm struggling to understand the point through all the inaccuracies.

I'll take your last paragraph... you're happy to not discount the team at the top of the league by 8 points. That's very kind of you.

 

 

[Father Gascoigne]

19 hours ago, MattSantos said:

This is well written, but i'm struggling to understand the point through all the inaccuracies.

I'll take your last paragraph... you're happy to not discount the team at the top of the league by 8 points. That's very kind of you.

Here, I'll highlight the point for you: 

Quote

It's a long way of saying that great teams are built around an elite playmaker/goalscorer and ball-winner in midfield. If there are examples of title winners without these two ingredients, there aren't many of them, and would count as exceptions to the rule.  

The necessity of quality squads is vastly overrated by many fans. These are the same fans who tend to believe managers make a big difference to results, and that tactics is more important than individual players.

There is some truth to great managers, of course. They usually have an emotional intelligence well beyond their peers. The great managers get their squad playing closer to the ceiling, but they won't break through it. They won't win titles without the right players, because ultimately football is a sport controlled by a very select number of players playing in their prime. Not surprisingly, many of them have strong track records of knowing which players to sign and play. 

Club eras are defined by such players, and you can pinpoint the start and end of successful periods by the arrival and exit of these players. They tend to be all-time/generational greats who are selfless playmakers and with an eye for goal. Once you have one of these, and you pair them up with an elite ball-winning midfielder or an absolute wall in central defence (or both), you have a potential dynasty on your hands if they stay fit and are in the right age bracket. 

It happens time and time again, and all the evidence is there if one cares to look for it by analysing title-winning squads of yesteryear. I'm not suggesting the rest of the players in these teams are rubbish, but you could replace them with someone else and get more or less the same output.

Naturally, many squad players get vastly overrated by virtue of playing along the handful of greats. One of the more recent beneficiaries of this is Ruben Dias, who inexplicably won the PFA PoY a few seasons ago despite being nowhere near the best player on his team, let alone the league. 

As for the Liverpool comment, I don't know how much PL football you've watched in your life, but a club up by eight points in February, let alone November, is no sure thing. Just off the top of my head, I recall Manchester United blowing a 5-point lead in late April. 

Salah and Van Dijk staying fit all season would make that a difficult task for the other challengers, especially as Arsenal have been their own worst enemy, but it's hardly a foregone conclusion with 78 points still up for grabs.

 

[gingerjon]

The Copa Libertadores on BBC Three is not disappointing so far. Ten man Botafogo leading 2-0 heading to half time.

[gingerjon]

New one for me: asked to pick the official player of the match in my role as club photographer.

It was Rosie Muggeridge, since you ask.

[gingerjon]

After Wales's somewhat 'against the run of play over 180 minutes but that's football' win against Ireland, the line up for Euro 2025 is confirmed:

[RayCee]

I find Darwin Nunez a frustrating player. Works hard but misses so many opportunities to score. Will he hinder Liverpool's chances of success? Can any team afford a striker that squanders too many opportunities? 

[DI Keith Fowler]

3 hours ago, RayCee said:

I find Darwin Nunez a frustrating player. Works hard but misses so many opportunities to score. Will he hinder Liverpool's chances of success? Can any team afford a striker that squanders too many opportunities? 

I have a lot of time for him because he's very funny to watch and works hard which is quite endearing. There's something that's yet to click with him and if it ever does he'll be unplayable, but is it ever going to happen is the question?

As it stands he does a lot of dirty work and his link up play has improved dramatically, although as seen earlier he's now prone to trying to square it when a striker should be taking it on. All in it might not matter that much in a side with Salah as the main goalscoring threat, he's occupying defenders, dragging teams out of shape and making space. But you'd want to see more goals, Firmino was unselfish but still regularly contributed ~10 in the league. 

[Father Gascoigne]

9 hours ago, DI Keith Fowler said:

I have a lot of time for him because he's very funny to watch and works hard which is quite endearing. There's something that's yet to click with him and if it ever does he'll be unplayable, but is it ever going to happen is the question?

He's 25. He is what he is. Like Cavani sans the ability. He would be thought of more highly if he was playing for a team who absorb pressure, exploit space and don't monopolise the ball as much as Liverpool. 

Liverpool should flog him, though. He's a fine option to have when you have elite players in other key positions. But with Salah et all at the back end of their careers, no better time to recoup as much as possible from the Nunes transfer fee. 

[gingerjon]

13 hours ago, RayCee said:

I find Darwin Nunez a frustrating player. Works hard but misses so many opportunities to score. Will he hinder Liverpool's chances of success? Can any team afford a striker that squanders too many opportunities? 

How do his hits and misses compare to other strikers?

That's a genuine Q. They all miss way more than they hit.

[OriginalMrC]

7 hours ago, gingerjon said:

How do his hits and misses compare to other strikers?

That's a genuine Q. They all miss way more than they hit.

His record isn't great in terms of shot  conversion rates and that stands out more at Liverpool where the forwards are all fairly clinical, especially Jota who is his main rival for position. That's mainly because he has a lot of chances and even though he missed a lot he scored 18 goals for Liverpool last season and it looked like he might kick on this season. However he is struggling to fit into the tweaked system at Liverpool and that has contributed to a loss of form. Don't be surprised if he goes on a mad run of scoring at some point though. 

[RayCee]

On 06/11/2024 at 10:48, RayCee said:

Man City's season is starting to look shaky. The injury toll is hurting but confidence seems to be down as well. 

It is now undoubtedly shaky. Confidence is shot. 

[HawkMan]

4 hours ago, RayCee said:

It is now undoubtedly shaky. Confidence is shot. 

The midfield has just run out of steam, they can't really cope with the burden of responsibility that Pep asks of them. Now Pep obviously is a talent of the ages, he has changed football,  his philosophy has spread, but he has made mistakes that are biting him on the backside. Cole Palmer obviously wanted to go, but Pep should have forseen his talent and given him more game time to make Palmer feel his future was at City. Also letting Alvares go last summer was a big error,  if Haaland isn't scoring then no one is, Alvares was a great back up. City should just about make the top 4, but that's it, a rebuilding job is needed. Walker , De Byrne and Silva, all 30 somethings. Despite his new contract it wouldn't surprise me if Pep quit in the summer.

Great headline in one paper this morning, 

Old Lady 2

Old Men 0

Edited December 12, 2024 by HawkMan

[sam4731]

7 hours ago, RayCee said:

It is now undoubtedly shaky. Confidence is shot. 

I think these charges are hanging above them. Possibly a lot of worried players planning an escape route, so they're not playing Championship football next year if the worst case scenario happens.

It does make me wonder if people know what the outcome will be behind the scenes too and the players just don't think it's worth the effort anymore.

[Father Gascoigne]

10 hours ago, sam4731 said:

I think these charges are hanging above them. Possibly a lot of worried players planning an escape route, so they're not playing Championship football next year if the worst case scenario happens.

It does make me wonder if people know what the outcome will be behind the scenes too and the players just don't think it's worth the effort anymore.

Not likely. It's worth at the very least watching highlights of City's games. You'd see they're still creating enough chances to win these games.

Here's the xG for in every loss they've had recently: 1.6, 2.1, 2.1, 2.1, 0.8, 1.1. In half of those games, they amassed a high enough xG that, on another day, would result in a win. 

The problem is their xG against has risen sharply: 2.0, 2.9, 2.3, 2.5, 3.4, 1.0.  

The denominator: the loss of Rodri, who shield the backline, amongst the many other positives he brings to City's attack. Prior to Rodri's injury, only once this season did City have an xG against over 2.0 (a 3-2 win over Fulham). Apart from a 1.6 xG against away to Newcastle (a 1-1 draw), it didn't climb above 1.0. Rodri is that important. 

The truth is that City have had a bang average backline during most of Pep's tenure. They have no midfielders who can even remotely make up for Rodri's absence. Without the protection from Rodri and Fernandinho before him, their defense has been no better than Manchester United since Pep took over. Similarly, Liverpool's stingy defense in Klopp's era would have been markedly more porous without Van Dijk. 

Everyone should go out and buy themselves a copy of The Captain Class: The Hidden Force Behind the World's Greatest Teams for Christmas. It will change how you look at team sports. 

Edited December 12, 2024 by Father Gascoigne

[OriginalMrC]

Man City delaying the charges against them has prolonged their success but it appears to be biting now. Undoubtedly they haven't been as active in the transfer market and I suspect top players are waiting for outcome of the charges before joining the club (who wants to join a ship about to torpedoed). Pep might have signed a new contract but he has a touch of Mourinho at Chelsea about him where he has let good players go, hasn't bought well for a while, and is reliant on aging players who can't perform at the level they used to.

[graveyard johnny]

looks like Rashford is on his way out at Man u - very good player but not world class- think they are starting to realise with the new gaffer that teams like Man u cant persist with just "very good" players  if they want real success like they used to have they need world class ones

[The Hallucinating Goose]

Fantastic news! Beverley Town have had planning permission approved for their new stand! We just need to raise the funds to get it built now!

It's incredible what's happening with Bev Town at the moment. Never in my life did I think I would see a stadium built in my hometown, never did I think I would ever see my local club challenging for promotion to the Northern Premier League. 

Beavers! Beavers!