Predictability of the RLWC

[Dave T]

So, we always hear how predictable the RLWC is, and I was looking through my predictions the other day on SuperBru, and out of the 24 results so far, I got 6 of them wrong so far. That seems like a decent level of unpredictability to me.

Games I got wrong:

Ireland vs Italy

France vs Lebanon

Ireland vs PNG

NZ v Tonga

Samoa vs Scotland

NZ v Fiji

On top of this, there have been games that have been far closer than expected (as per me getting no winning margins correct!).

How have other people done, am I just a rubbish tipster?

[mickhornet]

NZ have been woefull ,England might just win it.

[Jim Prendle]

37 minutes ago, Dave T said:

So, we always hear how predictable the RLWC is, and I was looking through my predictions the other day on SuperBru, and out of the 24 results so far, I got 6 of them wrong so far. That seems like a decent level of unpredictability to me.

Games I got wrong:

Ireland vs Italy

France vs Lebanon

Ireland vs PNG

NZ v Tonga

Samoa vs Scotland

NZ v Fiji

On top of this, there have been games that have been far closer than expected (as per me getting no winning margins correct!).

How have other people done, am I just a rubbish tipster?

I didn't actually make any predictions, but I am willing to accept that you are just a rubbish tipster.

[Lowdesert]

48 minutes ago, Dave T said:

So, we always hear how predictable the RLWC is, and I was looking through my predictions the other day on SuperBru, and out of the 24 results so far, I got 6 of them wrong so far. That seems like a decent level of unpredictability to me.

Games I got wrong:

Ireland vs Italy

France vs Lebanon

Ireland vs PNG

NZ v Tonga

Samoa vs Scotland

NZ v Fiji

On top of this, there have been games that have been far closer than expected (as per me getting no winning margins correct!).

How have other people done, am I just a rubbish tipster?

75% success is a high number. £1 on every game, you would be £12 up. If you can transfer that to SL betting you would be in the money big style.  Unfortunately, the RLWC is not so even!

Ive spent several seasons backing Hull on every game.   Take off my outlay and 50/50 with Dove House Hospice.  I take every advantage for an even money bet and have finished in profit.  CC run and a couple of big bets on Wakefield have brought decent brass.  Without those my percentage would be miles below 75% which is a really good hit rate.

[Shadow]

NZ v Fiji was epic, I have seldom enjoyed an RL match not involving England more.

Sadly I think the unpredictability of the resukts has been as a result the dominant teams under performing rather than improvements in the lower levels. 

 

[Dave T]

6 minutes ago, Shadow said:

NZ v Fiji was epic, I have seldom enjoyed an RL match not involving England more.

Sadly I think the unpredictability of the resukts has been as a result the dominant teams under performing rather than improvements in the lower levels. 

 

I dunno - it is easy to see that Fiji and Tonga have improved - to the stage that England are giving only 6pts start to Tonga on Saturday and some are nervous!

Now how they have done that is a whole other discussion, but the decisions the governing body made has increases these shocks.

In a shock result the better team will pretty much always under perform.

[Shadow]

I could see a lot of RU in Fiji’s play, when they were tackled they were “protecting” the ball as if to present it to the scrum half for a quick ruck and the disallowed double movement for a try would have been a legal immediate placing of the ball in RU, although I am more tan happy to accept that could equally have been white line fever.

Some exceptional penalties as well 

[Jim Prendle]

2 minutes ago, Shadow said:

I could see a lot of RU in Fiji’s play, when they were tackled they were “protecting” the ball as if to present it to the scrum half for a quick ruck and the disallowed double movement for a try would have been a legal immediate placing of the ball in RU, although I am more tan happy to accept that could equally have been white line fever.

Some exceptional penalties as well 

And a complete lack of tries.

I'm beginning to suspect a RU conspiracy here.

[shaun mc]

Some of the Fijians will have played RU as juniors - the fantastic player that is Vunivalu signed for Melbourne Storm at 18 after playing RU.

However, not to move this thread to RU. I think at the weekend it was a case of both NZ playing poorly and Fiji stepping up their game, slightly more the latter IMO

[MZH]

3 hours ago, Lowdesert said:

75% success is a high number. £1 on every game, you would be £12 up. If you can transfer that to SL betting you would be in the money big style.  Unfortunately, the RLWC is not so even!

Ive spent several seasons backing Hull on every game.   Take off my outlay and 50/50 with Dove House Hospice.  I take every advantage for an even money bet and have finished in profit.  CC run and a couple of big bets on Wakefield have brought decent brass.  Without those my percentage would be miles below 75% which is a really good hit rate.

If he had bet £1 on each game he would be in the red. 75% hit rate is good in normal circumstances but in this WC alot of games have had really heavy favourites. Some teams have been 1/100 in games so to make profit betting without the handicap you would have needed to call a couple of those upsets.

I havent done a superbru or anything like that, but I would have done slightly better than the OP because I said Lebanon would beat France and PNG to beat Ireland.

Ireland beating Italy was a surprise to me. I would have had the Italians by at least a couple of scores. No one saw that Scotland result coming. I had Scotland +34 at 13/10 and regretted putting the bet on after I had. So it was a very nice surprise to be able to relax and just enjoy the game after half an hour. I half fancied NZ to get turned over in their games but if pushed for a prediction I would have stuck with the safe option and backed NZ.

So I guess I'm 20/24

[Dave T]

16 minutes ago, MZH said:

If he had bet £1 on each game he would be in the red. 75% hit rate is good in normal circumstances but in this WC alot of games have had really heavy favourites. Some teams have been 1/100 in games so to make profit betting without the handicap you would have needed to call a couple of those upsets.

I havent done a superbru or anything like that, but I would have done slightly better than the OP because I said Lebanon would beat France and PNG to beat Ireland.

Ireland beating Italy was a surprise to me. I would have had the Italians by at least a couple of scores. No one saw that Scotland result coming. I had Scotland +34 at 13/10 and regretted putting the bet on after I had. So it was a very nice surprise to be able to relax and just enjoy the game after half an hour. I half fancied NZ to get turned over in their games but if pushed for a prediction I would have stuck with the safe option and backed NZ.

So I guess I'm 20/24

Yeah I thought I would have lost out tbh, as surely you are winning next to nothing for some of the wins and I didn't predict any of the shocks. LD seems to know what he's on about though, so who am I to argue?

The France v Lebanon prediction was a bit of a 50/50 one, and I did hope Ireland would beat PNG particularly after their victory over Italy - and tbh it was a touch and go game.

Just having a quick look at the SuperBru site and here are the stats around tipping accuracy:

Round 1 - I got 6/7 - vs an average of 4.3

Round 2 - I got 6/7 - vs an average of 5.7

Round 3 - I got 5/7 - vs an average of 4.8

QFs - I got 3/4 - vs an average of 2.9

So, I actually miscounted and I got 20/25 (I did predict Lebanon after all!) - whereas the average was 17.7 out of 25.

[TheLegendOfTexEvans]

Most World Cups apart from Soccer are predictable.

[Maximus Decimus]

It depends what you mean by unpredictable. 

Out of the 25 games so far, there have only actually been 5 results where the bookies favourite didn't win (Fra-Leb, Ire-Ita, NZ-Ton, Sco-Sam and NZ-Fiji) which is 20%. In contrast to this however, there have been 15 games where the game not only had a predictable winner but ended in a comfortable margin of victory (25 points or more) which . 

This doesn't take away from the tournament as we were always going to have a large number of games like this. The Tonga and Fiji victories over NZ and next Saturday against Tonga far more than make up for the mismatches.

 

[Maximus Decimus]

15 minutes ago, TheLegendOfTexEvans said:

Most World Cups apart from Soccer are predictable.

It's all about levels of predictability.

For me it isn't the number of upsets that are a problem (and we have only really had 4 upsets) it is the lack of genuinely competitive games. I would say there were only really 8 games (less than 33%) where the result was in any doubt. The big difference from last time is that Groups C and D had far more mismatches than previously.

[MZH]

53 minutes ago, Dave T said:

Yeah I thought I would have lost out tbh, as surely you are winning next to nothing for some of the wins and I didn't predict any of the shocks. LD seems to know what he's on about though, so who am I to argue?

The France v Lebanon prediction was a bit of a 50/50 one, and I did hope Ireland would beat PNG particularly after their victory over Italy - and tbh it was a touch and go game.

Just having a quick look at the SuperBru site and here are the stats around tipping accuracy:

Round 1 - I got 6/7 - vs an average of 4.3

Round 2 - I got 6/7 - vs an average of 5.7

Round 3 - I got 5/7 - vs an average of 4.8

QFs - I got 3/4 - vs an average of 2.9

So, I actually miscounted and I got 20/25 (I did predict Lebanon after all!) - whereas the average was 17.7 out of 25.

By my reckoning you would be about £3 down if you had put £1 on each game.

[Exiled Wiganer]

I don’t bet on anything so haven’t followed their thoughts, but clearly we have a higher standard of team generally this year. All of the last 8 were either very good, or, in NZ and Samoa’s cases, had been very good in the very recent past. It is plain as day that we are making massive progress. Fiji in the NSW Cup and the Hunters only going to go from strength to strength, Toulouse developing more French players and more Welsh players than ever at junior levels in pro clubs, I expect we will have even more strength in depth by 2021. If only Serbia can make a leap forward (are the Trbojevics - or whether they are called - Serbian). Add to the mix USA growth if New York gets up and running, potential Canadian development and more Italians playing at a better level...

There is only one direction of travel for strength in depth. We have come a long long way in a short time.

[Lowdesert]

5 hours ago, MZH said:

If he had bet £1 on each game he would be in the red. 75% hit rate is good in normal circumstances but in this WC alot of games have had really heavy favourites. Some teams have been 1/100 in games so to make profit betting without the handicap you would have needed to call a couple of those upsets.

I havent done a superbru or anything like that, but I would have done slightly better than the OP because I said Lebanon would beat France and PNG to beat Ireland.

Ireland beating Italy was a surprise to me. I would have had the Italians by at least a couple of scores. No one saw that Scotland result coming. I had Scotland +34 at 13/10 and regretted putting the bet on after I had. So it was a very nice surprise to be able to relax and just enjoy the game after half an hour. I half fancied NZ to get turned over in their games but if pushed for a prediction I would have stuck with the safe option and backed NZ.

So I guess I'm 20/24

I was basing that on even money betting.  Thats what I use in SL and it’s worked for me 3 years running.

The odds in this competition have been difficult for me to work out as the Tonga, Samoa, Lebanon teams have been loaded with players I’ve not seen a lot of, but a 75% win ratio is excellent.  Just depends on how much you are willing to chance.

[Lowdesert]

4 hours ago, Dave T said:

Yeah I thought I would have lost out tbh, as surely you are winning next to nothing for some of the wins and I didn't predict any of the shocks. LD seems to know what he's on about though, so who am I to argue?

The France v Lebanon prediction was a bit of a 50/50 one, and I did hope Ireland would beat PNG particularly after their victory over Italy - and tbh it was a touch and go game.

Just having a quick look at the SuperBru site and here are the stats around tipping accuracy:

Round 1 - I got 6/7 - vs an average of 4.3

Round 2 - I got 6/7 - vs an average of 5.7

Round 3 - I got 5/7 - vs an average of 4.8

QFs - I got 3/4 - vs an average of 2.9

So, I actually miscounted and I got 20/25 (I did predict Lebanon after all!) - whereas the average was 17.7 out of 25.

I don’t know what the odds you had Dave, but on the dead cert favourites, it’s more or less buying money.  The chance of losing is still there, but the reward, percentagewise, is small but still profit.  Some bookies just turn some of these bets away.

[Col81]

I am a very heavy gambler on rugby league. Super league is great it's all about early team news. Let's say Wigan v Leeds for argument sake the handicap is Wigan -6 well if lockers is out the handicap will drop as the week goes on -4, -2, scratch +2 as the cash goes on Leeds the trick is to get the value early. The bookies know little about rl buy league express etc keep close to team news and it's easy cash. I have got a £2100 profit from last season ready to attack this season

[Lowdesert]

6 minutes ago, Col81 said:

I am a very heavy gambler on rugby league. Super league is great it's all about early team news. Let's say Wigan v Leeds for argument sake the handicap is Wigan -6 well if lockers is out the handicap will drop as the week goes on -4, -2, scratch +2 as the cash goes on Leeds the trick is to get the value early. The bookies know little about rl buy league express etc keep close to team news and it's easy cash. I have got a £2100 profit from last season ready to attack this season

That and squad news for teams with shallow squads and injuries.  Cats and Widnes 2017 were wide open.  Odds are still based on what money has gone on though.

Tonga is being heavily backed, I think 60% of the voting to get to the final now at 6/4.  For the semi they were evens with 6 point start v England, now only 4 start at PaddyP.  

[Col81]

I think tonga are the value with a 6 start. I wouldn't go crazy but England are poor. 

[Lowdesert]

2 minutes ago, Col81 said:

I think tonga are the value with a 6 start. I wouldn't go crazy but England are poor. 

That’s it though isn’t it Col.  Whether you want to chance that value.  That’s why I quoted even money.

Interesting that you can get 11/10 on the 1st half being the highest scoring half v 9/4 in the 2nd.  

[B rad]

9 hours ago, Shadow said:

Sadly I think the unpredictability of the resukts has been as a result the dominant teams under performing rather than improvements in the lower levels. 

A look at the players available for the teams at lower level would suggest otherwise. 

[tim2]

6 hours ago, TheLegendOfTexEvans said:

Most World Cups apart from Soccer are predictable.

How many different countries have won the FIFA World Cup, or even reached the semi-finals, compared to the total number of countries that have made the finals?

Answers are 8 and 24 (including 3 countries that no longer exist, plus the USA in 1930 when countries were invited to play) out of about 80 countries that have qualified. 

[rlno1]

6 hours ago, Maximus Decimus said:

It depends what you mean by unpredictable. 

Out of the 25 games so far, there have only actually been 5 results where the bookies favourite didn't win (Fra-Leb, Ire-Ita, NZ-Ton, Sco-Sam and NZ-Fiji) which is 20%. In contrast to this however, there have been 15 games where the game not only had a predictable winner but ended in a comfortable margin of victory (25 points or more) which . 

This doesn't take away from the tournament as we were always going to have a large number of games like this. The Tonga and Fiji victories over NZ and next Saturday against Tonga far more than make up for the mismatches.

 

When talking about the tournament maybe a comparison to the 2000 WC and a question have we gone ahead or backwards. I think we all would agree it's the former.

It's exciting for the game to see where we will be in the years ahead.