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2 minutes ago, Padge said:

It was made perfectly clear on BBC news that Isaw what the relaxations were in Spain and Italy, there was absolutely nothing said that even implied they were coming off lockdown only that some small shops in Italy were being allowed to open and that some construction work was being allowed in Spain along with some manufacturing.

 

Okay, fair enough, I haven't watched the beeb, just been skimming some of the rolling news sites.

Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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Well... after 66 days in ICU my sister's fella who was described as being as near to death as can be without dying.... has made it. He's home. Half the fella he was.... and the virus has ravaged his l

I'm not putting up with this goading of a volunteer moderator who does a sterling job on my behalf generally on here, but especially recently when I was ill for almost a month with what might well hav

Well my sister's fella is making very small steps in the right direction. From being described as as near to death without being dead, he's now sat up, off dialysis and yesterday was breathing on

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You may have missed this , but the UK regulations have been changed.

It is now mandatory to wear a mask when you are at home.  Not to halt the spread of the virus, but to stop you snacking out of boredom

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We went into lockdown officially on Monday 16th March although all the bars,restaurants etc. closed on Friday 13th March.so we are probably a week to 10 days earlier than the U.K. However here,we have a much stricter lockdown. Only one person from each household is allowed out at any time. Only one person allowed in any car. I do the weekly shop on a Thursday every week and every week I am stopped by the Guardia to ask where I am going. I am allowed to go to the supermarket or the pharmacy or Petrol station,that is all. I have to show proof that I am going to any of these places or I will be fined,turned around and sent back home.I go because even though I am 77 and my wife is 76 I think I am less susceptible to catch the virus. My wife has not been out of our garden gate now for 29 days and will not be going out anytime soon. However,so far,so good. As for ex pats,I live in a basically spanish village with not many ex pats so I have no idea how many have been infected,plenty I would assume as at first the ex pats seem to think they were exempt from the lockdown. Things do seem to be improving but very,very, slowly.

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21 minutes ago, JohnM said:

You may have missed this , but the UK regulations have been changed.

It is now mandatory to wear a mask when you are at home.  Not to halt the spread of the virus, but to stop you snacking out of boredom

I'd probably just eat that as well John.  :kolobok_sad:

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Tim2,

         The figures here were deaths on Sunday, 619. Monday 517, today Tuesday 567. So in 3 days down 100,then up 50.This seems to be happening every weekend,high on Sunday,down Monday,up again Tuesday,Wednesday,Thursday.The Province where I live is Murcia, 10 minutes from the old San Javier airport,now 15 minutes from the new Corvera airport. To date this Province has the lowest death rate in the whole of Spain.

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1 hour ago, gingerjon said:

It's really interesting to me that, over here, Spain's easing is being presented as a full coming out of lockdown, and also there is, because it's not being explained at all, an implicit assumption that Spain and the UK's current lockdown statuses are similar.

EU countries take first cautious steps out of coronavirus lockdown

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/eu-countries-coronavirus-lockdown-italy-spain

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Just as a bit of realism before I put my phone away, if the 50% uplift on hospital deaths is still accurate, as it’s shown it has been elsewhere, then we’re at around 18,000 deaths in the UK 

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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5 minutes ago, ckn said:

Just as a bit of realism before I put my phone away, if the 50% uplift on hospital deaths is still accurate, as it’s shown it has been elsewhere, then we’re at around 18,000 deaths in the UK 

Did I see a marked down 15% figure knocking around earlier today? 

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4 minutes ago, Northern Eel said:

Did I see a marked down 15% figure knocking around earlier today? 

I think what I saw was that if you add the deaths confirmed up to the date the ONS report goes to to the number known *in hospitals* given yesterday then it goes up by 15%?

Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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34 minutes ago, Northern Eel said:

Did I see a marked down 15% figure knocking around earlier today? 

Yes, but that was for England only. Not sure why they used England numbers only for commenting, the figures for England and Wales still show all deaths to be 52% higher than hospital at 3rd April (6235 v 4093)

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Well, I had no idea that this company existed in St Helens but well done to them for being involved in the Pitlane Project (even though ultimately the ventilator designed couldn't be used with Covid patients) and for producing 3-5,000 visors a day for the NHS and care sectors.  Always great to learn about a local firm getting involved in the national effort.

Not a local firm, but apparently the first batch of Barbour scrubs and gowns have arrived at hospitals in the North East.  Great stuff.

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5 minutes ago, Les Tonks Sidestep said:

Yes, but that was for England only. Not sure why they used England numbers only for commenting, the figures for England and Wales still show all deaths to be 52% higher than hospital at 3rd April (6235 v 4093)

Caution was expressed by the PHE person at the press conference today regarding the community figures as not all cases have been tested and so even though Covid has appeared on the death certificate, the figures cannot be considered as definitive.

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6 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

Caution was expressed by the PHE person at the press conference today regarding the community figures as not all cases have been tested and so even though Covid has appeared on the death certificate, the figures cannot be considered as definitive.

Yes, it's made clear in the ONS statistics that the deaths are where Covid is mentioned on the death certificate and not necessarily confirmed by testing. In France, community deaths aren't tested either but counted. There are also theories that Germany's numbers are possibly low because many deaths that would be recorded as due/related to  'Covid' in other countries are recorded as being due to other present symptoms - they've consistently had higher numbers of serious/critical cases than the UK (around 3x for a number of days recently but only around 1/4 of the (hospital) deaths).

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10 minutes ago, Hullfan said:

Has anyone been contacted yet, regarding the self employed income support scheme?? 

No not yet but I’m going to log into my hmrc account tomorrow just to check they haven’t done it through that rather than email. 

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12 minutes ago, bobbruce said:

No not yet but I’m going to log into my hmrc account tomorrow just to check they haven’t done it through that rather than email. 

I checked mine today, I haven't received anything via that, as of yet!! 

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Nigel Farage, sitting in his Medway studio flat, in his Y-fronts with a pack of fags, and a couple of cans of Directors, watching Eastenders, while wearing a face mask. Serves him right.

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Where were you last Thursday?

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3 hours ago, Les Tonks Sidestep said:

Yes, it's made clear in the ONS statistics that the deaths are where Covid is mentioned on the death certificate and not necessarily confirmed by testing. In France, community deaths aren't tested either but counted. There are also theories that Germany's numbers are possibly low because many deaths that would be recorded as due/related to  'Covid' in other countries are recorded as being due to other present symptoms - they've consistently had higher numbers of serious/critical cases than the UK (around 3x for a number of days recently but only around 1/4 of the (hospital) deaths).

I don't think that France includes all  community deaths in their figures. Similar to here, I think it's only those who have been tested as positive fof Covid 19.  In any case,  France has only recently stated to include any deaths outside hospital.   

As far as I am aware from my friends in Vichy., that is.

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4 hours ago, ckn said:

Just as a bit of realism before I put my phone away, if the 50% uplift on hospital deaths is still accurate, as it’s shown it has been elsewhere, then we’re at around 18,000 deaths in the UK 

Realism is very much what is needed, as well as consistency, more information about how care home deaths are recorded, who makes the diagnosis to be stated on the death certificate, how long it takes between actual death and turning up in the official stats. Without that consistency,  accuracy and process knowledge, it is possible to form the wrong conclusion and to take wrong decisions.

With the daily figures of hospital deaths, there is consistent of reporting,  I understand, in that these figures are provided by the health  service on the same basis every day.  Slightly surprised that there is no curve-fitting or regression analysis so we can more clearly see a trend.

The ONS figures I understand, are a weekly record of those deaths where Corvid 19 gets a mention on the certificate. Again,  as long as a consistent process is followed and the criteria for inclusion is kept the same,  we get a reasonable picture over time.

The thing I really need help with (along with many other things, it has to be said) is understanding who decides to include the words Covid 19 on the death cerificate at a care home. Also need to understand how long it takes between a death and it's inclusion in the ONS weekly figure. 

For example, a few years ago my mother in law died in a care home and it took nearly three weeks to issues the death certificate. She had never been seen by her named GP , and in the 2 weeks prior to her death had not been seen by any other GP from the same practice. None of them would sign the death certificate and  we were threatened with a post mortem. There was quite a fuss at the time but in the end various agencies managed to get the GP to finalise the paperwork. 

Thus I am very distrustful of the care home figures being talked about.

I am also very distrustful of the way other countries account for deaths outside hospital. Not that they are cheating,  just that they may record things differently, on a different demographic, and on differing definitions  of care home, old people's homes etc etc. 

It needs to be right, otherwise the media will have a hayday...this week. Next week they'll move on to the emerging  scare that the virus can be transmitted by shoes or some such rubbish.

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18 minutes ago, JohnM said:

Realism is very much what is needed, as well as consistency, more information about how care home deaths are recorded, who makes the diagnosis to be stated on the death certificate, how long it takes between actual death and turning up in the official stats. Without that consistency,  accuracy and process knowledge, it is possible to form the wrong conclusion and to take wrong decisions.

With the daily figures of hospital deaths, there is consistent of reporting,  I understand, in that these figures are provided by the health  service on the same basis every day.  Slightly surprised that there is no curve-fitting or regression analysis so we can more clearly see a trend.

The ONS figures I understand, are a weekly record of those deaths where Corvid 19 gets a mention on the certificate. Again,  as long as a consistent process is followed and the criteria for inclusion is kept the same,  we get a reasonable picture over time.

The thing I really need help with (along with many other things, it has to be said) is understanding who decides to include the words Covid 19 on the death cerificate at a care home. Also need to understand how long it takes between a death and it's inclusion in the ONS weekly figure. 

For example, a few years ago my mother in law died in a care home and it took nearly three weeks to issues the death certificate. She had never been seen by her named GP , and in the 2 weeks prior to her death had not been seen by any other GP from the same practice. None of them would sign the death certificate and  we were threatened with a post mortem. There was quite a fuss at the time but in the end various agencies managed to get the GP to finalise the paperwork. 

Thus I am very distrustful of the care home figures being talked about.

I am also very distrustful of the way other countries account for deaths outside hospital. Not that they are cheating,  just that they may record things differently, on a different demographic, and on differing definitions  of care home, old people's homes etc etc. 

It needs to be right, otherwise the media will have a hayday...this week. Next week they'll move on to the emerging  scare that the virus can be transmitted by shoes or some such rubbish.

The documents behind the COVID-19 death certification process for out-of-hospital deaths haven’t been released publicly yet, as far as I know, so you’ll have to trust me on this. Here’s about the only public release I can find from an official source. The system is called the P-MART process and ties together both confirmation of death and the certification process. If I see it released, I’ll share it if you want, I’d rather not but if it makes you trust the system more then I will.

The combination of COVID-19 being a “notifiable disease” AND this P-MART official process means the rules are far stricter. To get COVID-19 on a death certificate involves police, ambulance, a medical professional (doctor usually), coroner and other people all agreeing that it is COVID-19 as the cause of death and following an awful flowchart of checks and balances. The system is designed to ensure nothing else is hidden behind it, e.g. foul play, negligence, expected deaths, accident, suicide, life’s excrement-happens moments and so on.

I’ve spent far too many soul-destroying meetings talking about COVID-19 deaths, who can certify it, what happens to bodies and so on for my liking. I bloody hate it. I hate how degrading it is to the family of the deceased and the deceased person itself because of the risk of contamination and further deaths if not handled properly. I hate how it puts my clinicians at risk having to certify death (again, different from confirming death).

But... the process is sound. When COVID-19 is listed as primary cause of death in the UK then you can be as confident as these things allow that the person did die of COVID-19 without a full mortuary autopsy.

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"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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3 hours ago, Saintslass said:

 

So what are you trying to say? If you bang it on every political or virus thread on here(which you seem to be trying to do) we will have a Lets clap Boris Friday or something ? ?

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