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49 minutes ago, Wolford6 said:

Absolute garbage reportage. If Covid19 is ten times deadlier than the 2009 swine flu pandemic, we can expect a worldwide 2 million people to die. It won't happen.

It's not garbage reporting, it's what the WHO said. You may disagree but it doesnt make the reporting garbage. 

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Well... after 66 days in ICU my sister's fella who was described as being as near to death as can be without dying.... has made it. He's home. Half the fella he was.... and the virus has ravaged his l

I'm not putting up with this goading of a volunteer moderator who does a sterling job on my behalf generally on here, but especially recently when I was ill for almost a month with what might well hav

Well my sister's fella is making very small steps in the right direction. From being described as as near to death without being dead, he's now sat up, off dialysis and yesterday was breathing on

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Probably daft , but I actually feel guilty ATM , I'm self employed working on private houses , it isn't unusual for me to go three weeks without working at any given time , although it is mostly in winter 

So again ATM I'm at home , but will eventually receive from the Exchequer a ' wage ' , now I've spent 20 of the 21 days of lockdown sorting out my garden , again due to being self employed my garden has ended up looking like a mini tip , I was due to book a skip just after we were ' locked ' , but I digress , also having had a business where I had two 40 ft containers to store several years of junk , when the business ended I brought a small but sizeable amount of the junk home 

So tomorrow my 1960 ford 100e popular will again see the light of the sun on its red painted and rusty bodywork , now this would not have happened if I hadn't known that I was highly unlikely to work for 90 days , so just another 70 to go , still a few parts of the garden need sorting , so the ' guilt ' comes from enjoying spending 5 hours a day ( in some  unusually good weather ) out in the sun 

Am I a bad person ? , Is the guilt warranted ? 

Strange times 

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7 hours ago, Wolford6 said:

Absolute garbage reportage. If Covid19 is ten times deadlier than the 2009 swine flu pandemic, we can expect a worldwide 2 million people to die. It won't happen.

Two things:

1. The spread of COVID-19 (contagion rate) is much higher than swine flu, around double

2. There would have been 2 million deaths without the lockdowns. Maybe many more. Look at the curves - the cases and deaths were going exponential.

"I am the avenging angel; I come with wings unfurled, I come with claws extended from halfway round the world. I am the God Almighty, I am the howling wind. I care not for your family; I care not for your kin. I come in search of terror, though terror is my own; I come in search of vengeance for crimes and crimes unknown. I care not for your children, I care not for your wives, I care not for your country, I care not for your lives." - (c) Jim Boyes - "The Avenging Angel"

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7 hours ago, Damien said:

It's not garbage reporting, it's what the WHO said. You may disagree but it doesnt make the reporting garbage. 

I'm not criticising the messenger;wishing  no offence to any TRL contributor. I'm criticising the WHO, which is plainly trying to drum up some additional funding.

Under Scrutiny by the Right-On Thought Police

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54 minutes ago, Wolford6 said:

I'm not criticising the messenger;wishing  no offence to any TRL contributor. I'm criticising the WHO, which is plainly trying to drum up some additional funding.

This virus is not the worst end of pandemic. On an individual basis, a death is a death. But, this is not a civilisation threatening pandemic, whereas a 1919 flu would be in this modern age. I think the main thing that this has exposed is inadequacies of response that would be far more serious if the virus were more serious.

"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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Some figures from Europe regarding the percentage of deaths in care homes. It makes our figures truly terrifying when these aren't being included:

Around half of deaths from COVID-19 are happening in care homes, according to data from some European countries.

Figures from five European countries suggest that care home residents have accounted for between 42% and 57% of all deaths related to COVID-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus.

The figures are contained in a report by academics at the London School of Economics, which focuses on Italy, Spain, France, Ireland and Belgium.

This would suggest that the daily figures announced by the UK government are vastly under-estimated, as they only include deaths in hospitals where a patient had tested positive for the virus.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-around-half-of-covid-19-deaths-are-in-care-homes-11972850

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I was going to post other graphs, but they're depressing as hell so decided you can go click yourself and read them if you need to feel awful.

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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7 minutes ago, ckn said:

I was going to post other graphs, but they're depressing as hell so decided you can go click yourself and read them if you need to feel awful.

The figure that's leaping out at me comes from this one: "Our data shows that of all deaths in England and Wales that occurred up to 3 April (registered up to 11 April), 6,235 involved COVID-19 compared with the 4,093 deaths reported on 4 April 2020 by [DHSC]"

That's a 2,142 difference. Half again on top of the daily announced figure.

Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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2 minutes ago, gingerjon said:

The figure that's leaping out at me comes from this one: "Our data shows that of all deaths in England and Wales that occurred up to 3 April (registered up to 11 April), 6,235 involved COVID-19 compared with the 4,093 deaths reported on 4 April 2020 by [DHSC]"

That's a 2,142 difference. Half again on top of the daily announced figure.

That matches the French figures I saw yesterday where the true figure was about half again the deaths of hospital figures.

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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Will these eventually be added to the totals that get announced daily on the BBC etc or are they forever going to solely be reported by the ONS?

I was under the impression that they were eventually added to the official numbers even if there was quite a lag until at the daily brief Sir Patrick Vallance explicitly said his graph only showed hospital deaths.

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4 minutes ago, ckn said:

That matches the French figures I saw yesterday where the true figure was about half again the deaths of hospital figures.

It's just a cold. There's no need for a lockdown. Old people die anyway.

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Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52275823

Coronavirus: Older people being 'airbrushed' out of virus figures

Prof Chris Whitty told the daily Downing Street coronavirus briefing on that 92 homes in the UK reported outbreaks in one day.

The Department of Health and Social Care later confirmed 2,099 care homes in England have so far had cases of the virus.

The figures prompted the charity Age UK to claim coronavirus is "running wild" in care homes for elderly people.

"The current figures are airbrushing older people out like they don't matter," Caroline Abrahams, the charity's director, said

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3 minutes ago, fevtom said:

Will these eventually be added to the totals that get announced daily on the BBC etc or are they forever going to solely be reported by the ONS?

I was under the impression that they were eventually added to the official numbers even if there was quite a lag until at the daily brief Sir Patrick Vallance explicitly said his graph only showed hospital deaths.

key is their available, and hence media will analyse and report.  It's not lack of transparency.

Would also be helpful if they could distinguish care home deaths. Although one would expect them to be higher due to the demographics of some care homes.

It has always been said the true figure would be much higher... which is bourne out by the figures.

The deaths and admissions to hospitals give a indication of what the pressure the NHS is under versus a key goal to ensure not overwhelmed statistical at least, if not emotionally.

Personally for the Press Conf conference I'm not sure any of the stats are useful to be publishing... but if doing have to be minimal slides and use ones that give an indication of progress.  The collection of wider numbers is difficult and hence why ONS does it the way they do. Wouldn't help give a day to day progress which hospital one's do.

I guess depends if looking for a general trend to measure against or something to scare the pants off...

I don't think any thinking person would be surprised by the real numbers....

 

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6 minutes ago, SSoutherner said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52275823

Coronavirus: Older people being 'airbrushed' out of virus figures

Prof Chris Whitty told the daily Downing Street coronavirus briefing on that 92 homes in the UK reported outbreaks in one day.

The Department of Health and Social Care later confirmed 2,099 care homes in England have so far had cases of the virus.

The figures prompted the charity Age UK to claim coronavirus is "running wild" in care homes for elderly people.

"The current figures are airbrushing older people out like they don't matter," Caroline Abrahams, the charity's director, said

It's absolutely worth stressing here that we're not simply talking about people who would have 'died anyway' or who are sitting around in chairs waiting to die having had their good innings. For starters, not all older people in care homes fit that description - some are simply there because they can't really live on their own any more but are otherwise absolutely fine. And, for seconds, care homes includes plenty of people whose disabilities or other issues mean they require warden support or similar but otherwise can go out and work, socialise, etc etc.

Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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Just now, SSoutherner said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52275823

Coronavirus: Older people being 'airbrushed' out of virus figures

yeah... although given the ons publish figures include all related deaths of any age plus the hospital deaths include all ages... I don't understand the headline or should say accusation.. as if trying to hide the numbers.

Personally I did't think it stands up to scrutiny, expect if want care home deaths reported separately as they are included in ONS/hospital deaths. 

I understand trying to put pressure on with regard care homes I think... but for me it was not hopefully as having somebody in a care home... just increased anxiety. Although personally the care home has all PPE needed and says no cause for alarm when I speak to them... but now it adds to worries and i wonder if I trust what say to me... so is that what spokesperson wanted.

I guess they could publish the hospital deaths by demographic but then the ONS figures normally do if drill down I think.

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2 minutes ago, redjonn said:

yeah... although given the ons publish figures include all related deaths of any age plus the hospital deaths include all ages... I don't understand the headline or should say accusation.. as if trying to hide the numbers.

Personally I did't think it stands up to scrutiny, expect if want care home deaths reported separately as they are included in ONS/hospital deaths. 

I understand trying to put pressure on with regard care homes I think... but for me it was not hopefully as having somebody in a care home... just increased anxiety. Although personally the care home has all PPE needed and says no cause for alarm when I speak to them... but now it adds to worries and i wonder if I trust what say to me... so is that what spokesperson wanted.

I guess they could publish the hospital deaths by demographic but then the ONS figures normally do if drill down I think.

i think it is lazy reporting.

 

It has never been hidden that the daily figures are NHS hospital figures and the ONS ones then add in the the figures from other sauces and sort out the NHS ones into a consistent format over time

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39 minutes ago, ckn said:

 

I currently have 3 statutory ONS submissions on my desk, waiting to be completed in the next week or so. All of them involve completing the return on paper, and have to be either faxed or posted back to them. I hope that the data capture techniques they're using for this are a little more timely and technologically advanced. 

 

Edit: for clarity, the submissions I have are not Covid 19 related. 

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1 minute ago, gazza77 said:

I currently have 3 statutory ONS submissions on my desk, waiting to be completed in the next week or so. All of them involve completing the return on paper, and have to be either faxed or posted back to them. I hope that the data capture techniques they're using for this are a little more timely and technologically advanced. 

 

Edit: for clarity, the submissions I have are not Covid 19 related. 

The ones i do for the labour market are faxed/emailed ot industry body then passed to KPMG who format etc before sending to ONS so I doubt it

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15 minutes ago, SSoutherner said:

i think it is lazy reporting.

 

It has never been hidden that the daily figures are NHS hospital figures and the ONS ones then add in the the figures from other sauces and sort out the NHS ones into a consistent format over time

The  stats from ONS figures are quite comprehensive... as per normal

"Of deaths involving COVID-19 registered up to Week 14, 90.2% (3,716 deaths) occurred in hospital, with the remainder occurring in hospices, care homes and private homes."

Of course these figures only go up to 3rd April. I think that tallies with a comment a few weeks ago from Vallance/Whitty that he thought the numbers would be 10% to 15% higher than hospital...

I just not sure that the journalist actually listen to whats said. As distinct from just thinking about their own question and agenda. Thus one wouldn't be surprised by the additional numbers.

It isn't lack of transparency for sure.

 

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