coronavirus

[redjonn]

2 hours ago, shaun mc said:

The excess deaths is your 'go to' number then if you think the number of Covid-19 deaths has been recorded incorrectly. Its 65,000 plus. No amount of squirming around excuses about how they are recorded

its not about squirming, I follow the daily deaths to get an idea of progress.

Yep "excess deaths" or to be more accurate excess mortality is the comparison to use when comparing but of course depends whether to use what type... as in risk adjusted or maybe age adjusted to take account of differences say in population density or obviously age demographics plus how well data collection, correlation is and all factors compering across highly dense cities or lesser populated regions across a country, , etc etc etc... Irrespective of that the following is a useful piece on excess mortality measuring...

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-excess-mortality

your comment on squirming implies a political aspects any comments from me on here is nowt to do with any politics... and not about squirming around excuses. Just basic questions particularly given the focus on daily deaths.

[John Drake]

Two posts removed.

This is not a party political thread.

Don't turn it into one.

Thanks.

[JohnM]

Here's a primer in excess mortality. As my old English teacher * used to say, "read and inwardly digest.

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-excess-mortality

Also, I recall seeing a note somewhere very  recently that overall mortality including Corvid mortality in the UK is now below the five-year norm.

* old English teacher, not as you might reasonably  suspect, Old English teacher.

[Bedford Roughyed]

5 minutes ago, JohnM said:

Also, I recall seeing a note somewhere very  recently that overall mortality including Corvid mortality in the UK is now below the five-year norm.

Some of that will be because some people who would have died throughout out the year, went a bit early.  

[JohnM]

15 minutes ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

Some of that will be because some people who would have died throughout out the year, went a bit early.  

Sure. Will or could be? looking for the source. its also why some caution is necessary with all figures. So many academics expressing so many opinions.

[Damien]

Some interesting research here about there being 6 types of Covid-19, each with different symptoms and severity:

Scientists have identified six distinct types of COVID-19 - each with a specific collection of symptoms - in a breakthrough that could help doctors predict which patients are most at risk.

The different forms of the disease are believed to determine its severity among those infected - and whether they are likely to need respiratory support in hospital.

Those behind the study, led by researchers from King's College London, say it will have major implications on treatment decisions during a potential second wave of coronavirus and could "save lives".

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-six-types-of-covid-19-identified-by-scientists-in-major-breakthrough-for-treatment160-12030652

[ckn]

A long chat with our friends today. We decided that we have to get a break and have decided to keep our holiday that was booked for September/October in Crete. But for a second peak sparking off that cancels the flight, we're going.

All four of us need the holiday and I could see the relief in the other three that we made that choice.

As an aside, just from curiosity, we looked for an identical holiday at the same place, same flights and so on but booked now. It was nearly 2.5 times the price. I think it was a good choice to just keep the holiday booked then!

That is if the Greeks don't see sense and block the English from coming...

[tonyXIII]

12 minutes ago, ckn said:

A long chat with our friends today. We decided that we have to get a break and have decided to keep our holiday that was booked for September/October in Crete. But for a second peak sparking off that cancels the flight, we're going.

All four of us need the holiday and I could see the relief in the other three that we made that choice.

As an aside, just from curiosity, we looked for an identical holiday at the same place, same flights and so on but booked now. It was nearly 2.5 times the price. I think it was a good choice to just keep the holiday booked then!

That is if the Greeks don't see sense and block the English from coming...

I'll have a quiet word with Kyriakos and make sure you aren't blocked.

[ckn]

22 minutes ago, tonyXIII said:

I'll have a quiet word with Kyriakos and make sure you aren't blocked.

It'd be most appreciated, I hear he's a nice chap. I'll even make the effort to learn a few Greek words for him.

[Saintslass]

Two 'outbreaks' have made the online news today (BBC, that is): a funeral took place in a mosque in Blackburn at which 250 attended (when the maximum number legally was 30) and it turns out the Imam taking the funeral subsequently tested positive. The other one: seven workers at a call centre in Scotland have tested positive.  The call centre is for NHS track and trace … 

[gingerjon]

At some point, some people may begin to realise that it's not actually death or full recovery with hardly any issues ...

https://english.elpais.com/science_tech/2020-07-17/over-half-of-coronavirus-hospital-patients-in-spain-have-developed-neurological-problems-studies-show.html

[Les Tonks Sidestep]

Some potentially good news on treatment (based on unreviewed preliminary results) 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53467022

[SSoutherner]

And some more breaking good news

A coronavirus vaccine developed by the University of Oxford appears safe and trains the immune system.

Trials involving around 1,077 people showed the injection led to them making antibodies and white blood cells that can fight coronavirus.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53469839

[ckn]

2 minutes ago, SSoutherner said:

And some more breaking good news

A coronavirus vaccine developed by the University of Oxford appears safe and trains the immune system.

Trials involving around 1,077 people showed the injection led to them making antibodies and white blood cells that can fight coronavirus.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53469839

That is truly outstanding news. Genuinely, undiluted good news.

[SSoutherner]

1 minute ago, ckn said:

That is truly outstanding news. Genuinely, undiluted good news.

if it turns out as good as this suggests and we have pre ordered 100m doses - surely the thing to do would be to treat everyone in the country who could take it in a very small timeframe (with a week of each other) and then make every single person entering the country from overseas quarantine stringently for 14 days and we could have a covid clear country which would mean those unable to take the vaccine (for whatever reason) were reasonably safe as well

[ckn]

29 minutes ago, SSoutherner said:

if it turns out as good as this suggests and we have pre ordered 100m doses - surely the thing to do would be to treat everyone in the country who could take it in a very small timeframe (with a week of each other) and then make every single person entering the country from overseas quarantine stringently for 14 days and we could have a covid clear country which would mean those unable to take the vaccine (for whatever reason) were reasonably safe as well

I may be 100% wrong but it's 90m total of all the likely vaccine candidates, not just this one. I think it'll translate to around 5m or so first phase with an aim to protect the most vulnerable and the health sector.

Polls today say around 25% will not take the vaccine. That would leave the country below herd immunity and mean that those who CAN'T take the vaccine due to genuine health issues will still be at risk.

No-one should be forced to take the vaccine, but they should also accept the consequence that they should be treated the same way as if they were a modern Typhoid Mary.

I would be happy with a vaccine card, or an "I can't be vaccinated" official card that would allow you into enclosed public spaces, from buses to football stadia.

[SSoutherner]

18 minutes ago, ckn said:

I may be 100% wrong but it's 90m total of all the likely vaccine candidates, not just this one. I think it'll translate to around 5m or so first phase with an aim to protect the most vulnerable and the health sector.

Polls today say around 25% will not take the vaccine. That would leave the country below herd immunity and mean that those who CAN'T take the vaccine due to genuine health issues will still be at risk.

No-one should be forced to take the vaccine, but they should also accept the consequence that they should be treated the same way as if they were a modern Typhoid Mary.

I would be happy with a vaccine card, or an "I can't be vaccinated" official card that would allow you into enclosed public spaces, from buses to football stadia.

Will the UK get a coronavirus vaccine?

The UK government has struck deals for 190 million doses of different vaccines.

This includes:

• 100 million doses of the Oxford vaccine made from a genetically engineered virus
• 30 million doses of the BioNtech/Pfizer vaccine, which injects part of the coronavirus' genetic code
• 60 million doses of the Valneva inactivated coronavirus

[SSoutherner]

50 minutes ago, ckn said:

No-one should be forced to take the vaccine, but they should also accept the consequence that they should be treated the same way as if they were a modern Typhoid Mary.

I would be happy with a vaccine card, or an "I can't be vaccinated" official card that would allow you into enclosed public spaces, from buses to football stadia.

Without straying into the political side what discrimination do people feel is fair against those who refuse (for non medical reasons) to take a vaccine once it has been fully clinically trialled

 

Personally I would go with the following any time there was more than 1 +ve test within their administrative area

No Public transport usage

No Mass sporting or Music events unless in a special area

Children to not go toe nursery/school unless able to be isolated 

 

And I would make them purchase private medical insurance equivalent to the one immigrants have to take out

[silverback]

Do we really think people are going to refuse a jab that could save your life?i know some people might not be able to for one reason or other, hope sense prevails for everyone.

[Bedford Roughyed]

11 minutes ago, silverback said:

Do we really think people are going to refuse a jab that could save your life?

People refuse to get jabs for their children, so yes I do think some will refuse it.  

[SSoutherner]

7 minutes ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

People refuse to get jabs for their children, so yes I do think some will refuse it.  

once the conspiracy nutters get their message out there plenty of people will do - i mean did you really think  people might believe covid was caused by 5G !!!

[silverback]

5 hours ago, SSoutherner said:

once the conspiracy nutters get their message out there plenty of people will do - i mean did you really think  people might believe covid was caused by 5G !!!

Or,That sea salt was a cure too.

[gingerjon]

15 hours ago, ckn said:

No-one should be forced to take the vaccine

And here's where we disagree.

[ckn]

1 hour ago, gingerjon said:

And here's where we disagree.

I’d rather there be consequences on non compliance, such as the ones I note about being banned from many places, than having medical treatments forced on them against their will. 

[Bob8]

We have three vaccines, making great progress, the Sinovac Biotech (old fashioned deactivated), Oxford/Astra and Moderna (modern RNA vaccine).

The headlines today are actually reasonably conservative it seems to me.