Euro 2024

[gingerjon]

4 minutes ago, Tommygilf said:

Fellow ex Yugoslavians? You disappoint me sir

I realised as soon as I typed it but figured ... nobody would pick me up on that!

You try coming up with a word for, "You know, those central European small nation teams who have worked out an effective way to play by holding back and relying on building frustration in their opponents who are more obviously resourced and want to move at speed ..."

Before you've had coffee.

[Tommygilf]

2 minutes ago, gingerjon said:

I realised as soon as I typed it but figured ... nobody would pick me up on that!

You try coming up with a word for, "You know, those central European small nation teams who have worked out an effective way to play by holding back and relying on building frustration in their opponents who are more obviously resourced and want to move at speed ..."

Before you've had coffee.

The Eastern Bloc/Warsaw Pact/Post-Communist/former Austro-Hungarian empire is one of my specialities!

In bold: but this is the Internet sir!

Edited June 27 by Tommygilf

[Maximus Decimus]

5 hours ago, Tommygilf said:

England Route to the final:

Slovakia then

Italy/Switzerland

Then a semi final against Netherlands/Romania or Austria/Turkey

Can't deny the opportunity is there to be taken. 

It certainly is, but I think most people over-estimate how likely something like this is. They look at the teams and think England on paper are better than them all, but fail to realise how statistically likely or unlikely things are.

I was essentially the same until the 2018 World Cup, when fivethirtyeight.com demonstrated the probabilities of winning. Even though England were on the easier side of the draw, I was shocked to find that our chance of making a final was in the 20%s. The reasons are simple. Even if you have a 75% chance of winning each game (extremely high in a game like football), that soon adds up to become only 42% by 3 games.

There's a very similar thing on Optajoe now and England are again favourites, because of the draw that we have. However, we are only at 20% to win and 55% to reach the semi-finals. This essentially means statistically we have an almost 1 in 2 chance of not being in the Semi-Final. This would be seen as abject failure, yet in reality it's a very likely scenario.

Similarly, most people would be shocked to find that France only have a 13% chance of winning the tournament. Had they topped the group and got on our side, they would be favourites.

[Tommygilf]

1 hour ago, Maximus Decimus said:

It certainly is, but I think most people over-estimate how likely something like this is. They look at the teams and think England on paper are better than them all, but fail to realise how statistically likely or unlikely things are.

I was essentially the same until the 2018 World Cup, when fivethirtyeight.com demonstrated the probabilities of winning. Even though England were on the easier side of the draw, I was shocked to find that our chance of making a final was in the 20%s. The reasons are simple. Even if you have a 75% chance of winning each game (extremely high in a game like football), that soon adds up to become only 42% by 3 games.

There's a very similar thing on Optajoe now and England are again favourites, because of the draw that we have. However, we are only at 20% to win and 55% to reach the semi-finals. This essentially means statistically we have an almost 1 in 2 chance of not being in the Semi-Final. This would be seen as abject failure, yet in reality it's a very likely scenario.

Similarly, most people would be shocked to find that France only have a 13% chance of winning the tournament. Had they topped the group and got on our side, they would be favourites.

I get that with those statistics, but I always take it with a pinch of salt.

Nobody on our side of the draw is particularly amazing, nor are they invulnerable. The fact that the other group winners on our side of the draw are Romania and Austria is a major boon. Italy, the Swiss and the Dutch are all of a level too.

I still think England are set up to "not lose" as we always have been under Southgate. That gets us fairly far, but ultimately I think it needs something else to get us over the line.

[RoyBoy295]

I would like to thank Gareth Southgate in the Euro's.

My granny has been bedbound since 1974, and she actually got out of bed and turned that drivel off that he has been dishing up.

[Maximus Decimus]

2 hours ago, Tommygilf said:

I get that with those statistics, but I always take it with a pinch of salt.

Nobody on our side of the draw is particularly amazing, nor are they invulnerable. The fact that the other group winners on our side of the draw are Romania and Austria is a major boon. Italy, the Swiss and the Dutch are all of a level too.

I still think England are set up to "not lose" as we always have been under Southgate. That gets us fairly far, but ultimately I think it needs something else to get us over the line.

Yep. My gut is that Southgate still isn't going to change much, probably only Mainoo for Gallagher. The positives from the end of the last game will be seen as options from the subs bench.

I wonder if he thinks things have even been that bad. He might have convinced himself that it's like 2020 and we'll improve with each round.

[Maximus Decimus]

I've got really mixed feelings about being on the 'easier' side of the draw. 

On the one hand, I want to see England win something and if we did I wouldn't care how we did it. This draw is a positive on that front.

On the other hand, I want to see us against the big countries and I want to see us beat an in-form top nation. I don't want to have to wait for the final before that happens. The best we can get is Italy or the Netherlands, and they aren't on top form.

It is more likely than not that we won't make the final, so we're facing a good chance of losing to a relative minnow or a poor version of a big country.

Even though we might lose, I think I want the excitement of France, Spain, Germany or Portugal. It feels like we could only get that in a final now.

[gingerjon]

13 hours ago, Maximus Decimus said:

I've got really mixed feelings about being on the 'easier' side of the draw. 

On the one hand, I want to see England win something and if we did I wouldn't care how we did it. This draw is a positive on that front.

On the other hand, I want to see us against the big countries and I want to see us beat an in-form top nation. I don't want to have to wait for the final before that happens. The best we can get is Italy or the Netherlands, and they aren't on top form.

It is more likely than not that we won't make the final, so we're facing a good chance of losing to a relative minnow or a poor version of a big country.

Even though we might lose, I think I want the excitement of France, Spain, Germany or Portugal. It feels like we could only get that in a final now.

Winners of the Euros include Denmark, Greece and Czechoslovakia. There aren't really any weak teams left, especially if you go on the performances from some of the 'big' countries (England included) so far. I imagine a lot of countries are thinking, "We've got a decent run here."

[Cumbrian Fanatic]

14 hours ago, RoyBoy295 said:

I would like to thank Gareth Southgate in the Euro's.

My granny has been bedbound since 1974, and she actually got out of bed and turned that drivel off that he has been dishing up.

Are you Charlie Bucket?

[Maximus Decimus]

4 hours ago, Cumbrian Fanatic said:

Are you Charlie Bucket?

I hope not. Can you imagine the smell in a house with 4 bedridden grandparents eating cabbage every day...

[gingerjon]

Switerland v Italy, Germany v Denmark

Bookies have Italy as 6/4 favourites in the first (Switzerland 12/5), with Germany odds-on in the second and Denmark out at 9/2.

[Maximus Decimus]

3 hours ago, gingerjon said:

Switerland v Italy, Germany v Denmark

Bookies have Italy as 6/4 favourites in the first (Switzerland 12/5), with Germany odds-on in the second and Denmark out at 9/2.

The first one could genuinely go either way I reckon. As for the second, it will surely be a comfortable German victory.

Form seemingly counts for naught with the bookies, as England are 2/5 to win in normal time and Slovakia are 8-1. 

[gazza77]

[The Hallucinating Goose]

Absolute domination from Switzerland in that first half, so many chances, they could have been 3 or 4 up if they'd just been a bit more decisive around the box. Italy were absolutely awful.

[The Hallucinating Goose]

That is likely to be the worst Italy performance you'll ever see in your life. Absolutely abysmal. One shot on target in the entire game, coming in the 73rd minute and it was just a little scuff along the ground. They looked like a bunch of amateurs just having a kick about down the park.

Switzerland were brilliant, looked so comfortable just weaving around the Italian defence like they were a bunch of statues. The Swiss had so many chances and if they'd just been a bit more decisive, a little less hesitating around the box they could have won that 5-0 easily.

If England beat Slovakia, I certainly aren't feeling confident for them against this Swiss side.

Edited June 29 by The Hallucinating Goose

[gingerjon]

Italy somehow win tournaments despite not being very good a lot of the time. For example:

 

[The Hallucinating Goose]

Denmark v Germany has been suspended after 35 minutes or so due to a massive thunderstorm coming over the ground and the ground getting struck by lightning. It will probably be restarted but just a question of how long we'll have to wait.

[Spidey]

Interesting 5 mins or so

[gingerjon]

I think the only VAR decision wrong in this game was disallowing the first German goal.

That said, Germany have got worse with each game so far.

[Maximus Decimus]

12 hours ago, gingerjon said:

I think the only VAR decision wrong in this game was disallowing the first German goal.

That said, Germany have got worse with each game so far.

I agree they were both technically correct, but I also think the first one was.

I don't watch a great deal of football, but it honestly feels like football has become like the caricature that Anthony Gelling joked about when they first brought it in. I don't know if it's worse at this Euros, but it has got to the point where you don't fully cheer because you wait for the replay.

RL went through this problem too (and hasn't perfected it), when they would go looking for reasons to chalk off tries based on technicalities. We'd end up with spurious decisions based on obstruction that took ages and pleased no-one. The infamous (to me) Widnes vs Barrow chest pass was the worst for me.

I'm of the opinion that if the attack think it's a try and the defence think it's a try then give it. That's why I prefer challenge systems like they have in tennis.

With regards to football, the goal-line technology works well and if they can get offsides to be instant (surely the machine knows straight away) then that would be accepted. People can moan about it only being a toe or whatever, but there has to be a cut-off point.

The handball rule is a mess. I've spoken before about the problem with the penalty rule and this is exacerbated by interpretations like this. In a sport like football, where a game averages fewer than 3 points, giving somebody an 80%+ chance of scoring should be am extreme event. However, it's treated like giving someone a kick at goal in rugby.

They should make handballs part of a challenge system and it should have to be that they've gained a clear advantage from it IMO. Had his hand not touched the ball, then a clear goal-scoring chance would have occurred. Finding this exact balance might be hard, but there's no way last night's example deserves to give Germany a huge advantage in winning the game.

 

 

[The Masked Poster]

I must be honest, I'll give the tournament it's due for drama and intrigue. But I don't genuinely think the teams (even the top ones) are that good. 

[HawkMan]

38 minutes ago, The Masked Poster said:

I must be honest, I'll give the tournament it's due for drama and intrigue. But I don't genuinely think the teams (even the top ones) are that good. 

Not quite up there with the excitement at France v England at Stade Ernest- Wallon , but they're trying bless 'em.

[Maximus Decimus]

I don't want to make any projections based on 3 minutes but...

Nothing has changed. Literally nothing.

[The Hallucinating Goose]

This ref is very card happy!

[The Hallucinating Goose]

Oh look, Slovakia have scored... not even a surprise...