Honestly, can we deliver 1m spectators in 2021?

[Scubby]

So what we are talking about here is 1m spectators across 31 games (32K+ per game). To put that in perspective Euro 96 in England (for those that remember) drew 1.25m across the same number of games.

 

This means that the 12 venue strategy (which potentially includes Coventry, Newcastle, Anfield, Etihad, Wembley, Leeds, OP) will have to deliver massive crowds again and again and again.

 

To give us any chance the whole ethos and approach needs to change. All the fixtures (Aus v Tonga, Fiji v USA, Wales v PNG etc) need to feel like big well-structured events with cities welcoming the opportunity to stage them. Fixtures almost need to be set 2 years out and days and kick-off times need to be fan friendly in October and November - and not at the whim of broadcasters.

 

Finally, the confusion created across the RL ticket buying public has to stop - now! The whole thing feels like a game of chicken. If you buy early you are an idiot, if you buy full price you are an idiot, there's always a code somewhere (always) to kick loyal fans in the nuts. What is the incentive for me to commit early?

 

People think that 2013 was a huge success. Actually when you dissect it then it gets just a good pass. We had 67.5k in Wembley for its 'showpiece' yet we had the bill-topping England game kick-offing off first at lunchtime (some fans still arriving after kick-off) and not headlining the "event". The result was an anti-climax in the second game and fans drifting away in the cold half way through the match.

 

Can 1m be done? Yes absolutely. Can the current mob deliver it? Well I'm not so sure the jury is out. This competition is supposed to be an audition for John Dutton and it is unconvincing to say the least. Perhaps the government funding allows a big dedicated WC staging team to be assembled and the lead-in time works to create a massive showpiece.

 

One thing that is clear is that if we create a competition with 1.2m seats available and deliver even 500k it will feel as depressing as 2000 and may have the same knock-on result. 

[BenGilesRL]

Agree with most of that - with big targets comes big responsibility and scrutiny, and they will have to be absolutely on the money with it both in planning and execution - largely due to the task of attracting casual general public to games in their thousands to make up for the RFL fans who won't be able to do all the games and will pick and choose.

If successful it could be huge, if unsuccessful if could be disastrous

[MEXICO WILL PAY]

No. The game isn't popular enough in England.

[Cumbrian Fanatic]

It's a big ask but if they don't aim for 1 million they certainly won't get them. Personally I think 750-800K is more than achievable to do this we would need to sell out the final at around 75K at Old Trafford presumably, 40K at each semi final (or dare I say 80K at Wembley if it is a double header) then 40K for each England group game plus England QF. That would leave 24 games to average just over 20K each to reach 800K.

 

Challenging but doable especially if games and locations are announced early and tickets are on sale well in advance with the best deals for those buying packages early to try and build momentum. Maybe bring the Aussies or Kiwis and one of the PI nations over in 2020 to help boost and promote WC sales.

 

Would 800K be considered a success?

[bamfordsbeans]

1 million is totally unrealistic.

 

I thought 2013 went well with an aggregate of 460,000.A 20% increase on those numbers is a more realistic target.

[pahars]

It would take smart planning because if we just throw games all over the country in big stadia then it could be 2000 x 10.

An opening weekend could be England v Oz and opening ceremony 4.00 on Saturday at Wembley a game in somewhere like Wigan 8.00 Saturday so people who don't travel down can watch on TV before going.

On the Sunday a game at OP at 1pm for those who have stayed over (tube marketing could feature both games saving costs) and games in or near the heartlands at 5 and 8.

This kind of strategy could be repeated for games at villa park and Coventry for example.

[Dave T]

One of the RFL's constant challenges is the lack of resources. Up to £15m for the organisation of the tournament from the government allows them to do things properly and try to tap into event crowds.

The British public will attend major sporting events even if they dont follow that sport.

We saw in 2013 when we paid going rates for agencies to support the event we ended up with things like 67k at Wembley for the semi final - a 50k uplift on 13 years earlier where we scrimped and played at Bolton.

This will be a major challenge, but money will be the main driver here. As long as the RFL use it smartly it really could be a game changer for RL.

[shaun mc]

Apart from Wembley and Twickers the games will all be dependent on the football fixtures if places like Man City, Newcastle, et al are being considered 

[jannerboyuk]

2021 give us a decent run in for bookings and promotions. Apart from the big games, we should look at Bristol for how a city can buy into a game with little regard for the participants. We need more Bristols and no double headers

[Blind side johnny]

I believe that a 1M target is simply too high and could lead to excuses being built into the build-up in the first instance. Rather I would prefer a challenging target, yet one that might also be exceeded. 550 - 600K would do that.

 

Masses of logistical planning will be required and we will need the complete unequivocal support of all of the competing nations in this. Will thet be forthcoming?

[Yakstorm]

The one major plus RLWC2021 has going for it, is that a seperate business unit will be setup for it, just like what happened in 2013.

Now whilst this unit maybe filled with former RFL employees, at least they will be focused selling tickets for just one event and won't be distracted.

As for a ticket sales policy, the RFL needs to follow the strategy it has used for the Grand Final and what a lot of American sports do. Start selling early (ie. At least 12 months out), start with your lowest price, if sales go well, push it up, if they don't, keep it low.

People will buy early if they know that they won't miss out on a deal later on. The earlier the code gets the money, the earlier it can reinvest it back into the event.

People bring people to events, and it is far better to sell 20K 6 months out at a low price, and have the opportunity to drive yield over the coming months, then to launch at top price and find yourself with minimal sales and being forced to do 'offers'.

[SamM]

Apart from Wembley and Twickers the games will all be dependent on the football fixtures if places like Man City, Newcastle, et al are being considered

The tournament includes November yes? Wembley (Qatar 2022 World Cup qualifiers) and Twickers (Autumn internationals) will be used so there will have to be organising around them also. Doesn't seem to be too much bother for the Grand final when it uses Old Trafford so there shouldn't be an issue in planning.

[Dave T]

We have used Wembley and OP at that time of the year before, have used OT twice in World Cup years, have used the Etihad and now Anfield.

Plis of course most of these grounds were available for the Union WC so no reason why they wont in 2021.

Of course an alternative solution would be to have a mid-season break and play in June which would be awesome.

[bamfordsbeans]

To achieve the target,grounds like Coventry,Sheffield,Newcastle etc are going to have to be used at the expense of traditional grounds like Headingley,HJ etc.

For fixtures not invoving the top 3 ,we need to be getting crowds of 20,000 plus in these venues.This will be a big risk as one of the features of the 2013 World Cup was capacity crowds in smaller venues creating good atmospheres.

[Allora]

No.

[sweaty craiq]

Cancel/move origin and take June/July out of SL to showcase a summer sport in summer, we then have a chance to relaunch our sport.

[Allora]

Cancel/move origin and take June/July out of SL to showcase a summer sport in summer, we then have a chance to relaunch our sport.

Sounds doable.

[sweaty craiq]

Sounds doable.

 

Most things are doable with the will of all parties, this would be a huge success imo if we have the balls to do it

[langpark]

I don't believe 1m is achievable either.  800k though, would still be a roaring success in my option.

 

I think we MUST utilise France here, let them host their own group matches, Toulouse, Marseille and Montpellier all have world class stadia and are in the French RL heartland, let's use them to get big crowds to matches that otherwise will struggle to get 10k in if played in England.

[sweaty craiq]

Agree, you also need a super group with France playing home games in France to max attendances. Tonga/Samoa/Fiji/England/France/NZ/Aus with 4 to go through for me

[Dave T]

So i've looked at this in a bit more detail. Using 2013 as a starting point, it gives you a few areas where you can target growth. We need to deliver a further 540k.

 

1. Opener - Needs to be a single game with 30k more fans in. (OTrafford) (30k uplift)

2. England group games - 2 other games where we need to double the 25k to 50k at Anfield and Newcastle (50k uplift)

3. Australia Group Games - attract 25k for these, replacing 5k and 14k (31k uplift)

4. NZ Group Games - attract 25k for these, replacing 14-18k (25k uplift)

5. Additional games - no double headers gives 4 additional group games - target 15k average (60k uplift)

6. Quarters, 50k for Eng, 25k for Oz and NZ games, 15k for other (58k uplift)

7. Semis - Eng Semi 74k Old Trafford, no double header, 55k for 2nd semi (62k uplift)

8. Final - Wembley sellout - (16k uplift)

 

Total uplift from focusing on the hotspots of above - 332k uplift - giving a total of 790k

 

The next area of focus is to work on the weaker games from last time:

9. All games below 15k need to be dragged up to that level - the HJ would be the smallest ground used and would be full. If literally every other game made 15k then it would be an uplift of 85k.

 

Even if you add all of these things togeter that gives you a total of 873k - still someway short of 1m.

 

The above would be an absolutely astounding success though.

[Konkrete]

Cancel/move origin and take June/July out of SL to showcase a summer sport in summer, we then have a chance to relaunch our sport.

 

Cancel SOO for the sake of relaunching our sport?

 

Small timers have already wrecked the top end of the game in this country, now we want to move onto Australia.

[Cookiepuss]

So i've looked at this in a bit more detail. Using 2013 as a starting point, it gives you a few areas where you can target growth. We need to deliver a further 540k.

 

1. Opener - Needs to be a single game with 30k more fans in. (OTrafford) (30k uplift)

2. England group games - 2 other games where we need to double the 25k to 50k at Anfield and Newcastle (50k uplift)

3. Australia Group Games - attract 25k for these, replacing 5k and 14k (31k uplift)

4. NZ Group Games - attract 25k for these, replacing 14-18k (25k uplift)

5. Additional games - no double headers gives 4 additional group games - target 15k average (60k uplift)

6. Quarters, 50k for Eng, 25k for Oz and NZ games, 15k for other (58k uplift)

7. Semis - Eng Semi 74k Old Trafford, no double header, 55k for 2nd semi (62k uplift)

8. Final - Wembley sellout - (16k uplift)

 

Total uplift from focusing on the hotspots of above - 332k uplift - giving a total of 790k

 

The next area of focus is to work on the weaker games from last time:

9. All games below 15k need to be dragged up to that level - the HJ would be the smallest ground used and would be full. If literally every other game made 15k then it would be an uplift of 85k.

 

Even if you add all of these things togeter that gives you a total of 873k - still someway short of 1m.

 

The above would be an absolutely astounding success though.

 

Set out like that I think it shows the scale of the task facing the organisers.

 

I'd have taken 750,000 combined as a magnificent effort and something way beyond what we might ever have imagined possible.

[GeordieSaint]

Looking at the performance with this Four Nations so far, I have absolutely no confidence in this RFL team delivering; we'll only achieve it if the promotion of the competition is taken out of their hands AND started in about 2018/9.

[sweaty craiq]

That's unfair on the current team, they will have finished school by then and will learn from this experience