coronavirus

[wilsontown]

Indeed, and the lockdown, soft or not, has done what it was intended to do. It doesn't look as though big and hard lockdowns as in France, Spain and Italy have been significantly more effective, and they must be more difficult to live under.

I think, cautiously, that the level of lockdown applied in the UK has been just about right. I still want it to end so I can go to the pub though.

[Northern Eel]

2 hours ago, redjonn said:

why the need to estimate...

The ONS  figures will show what the actual numbers are... every 2 weeks looking back...

we all know the hospital deaths are just that, that is does not cover every death. It is repeatedly said at every press conference..., I don't think I've listened to a press conference in which it isn't clearly stated...

These estimates have a habit of being drastically decreased once the sensationalist headline has been bandied around for a while. I truly hope this is the case here.

Scotland have 77 more deaths today. No let down there. Wales have 15 which seems to be coming down steadily now. Northern Ireland really struggling to produce timely data now.

[Northern Eel]

38 minutes ago, Dave T said:

This is the point that people are missing.  We are not in a total lockdown. People are allowed out to go shopping, work, health appts etc. so why are people surprised when they go out and people are there? It's a weird thing to be surprised about.

But, is the Trafford Centre full of people? Or McDonalds? Are the pubs full of people bobbing in for a pint? Are the gyms full, gym classes booked up? Are tens of thousands of people going to sporting events, festivals, gigs, or are there hundreds in cinemas or at the theatre? Are miserable husbands being dragged round Ikea on a Sunday AM? Are miserable Dads being dragged to soft play by their 3 year old daughter in the middle of Leith? Are trains, buses etc packed? Is the High Street bustling? 

The answer to all the above questions is No. That is what the lockdown has done.

The actual evidence has shown that lockdown has reduced presence in all of the above, apart from parks and residential areas.

 

 

You are right, but there are many on here, including myself, who are seeing more cars on the road this week than in the previous 3 weeks. That is the only point being made, I think.

[SSoutherner]

1 hour ago, gingerjon said:

I’d be really interested in some stats. Hastings - at least my bit - still seems quiet.

Reading/Bracknell the same

 

It seems those of us closer to London where it has hit harder and faster are paying more attention than those in the North

 

These are the live feeds for Reading's traffic cameras - http://www.reading-travelinfo.co.uk/live-traffic-cameras.aspx look at M4J11 and A33 - they are usually rammed from 7am to 9pm

[Dave T]

21 minutes ago, Northern Eel said:

You are right, but there are many on here, including myself, who are seeing more cars on the road this week than in the previous 3 weeks. That is the only point being made, I think.

I don't think it should come as a surprise that things start to get busier. We are hearing of new shops, particularly takeaways ans shops that are starting to open as they sort their processes and social distancing measures out. And, to be blunt, after 4 weeks, people are getting restless so will start to make sure they get out a little more. 

But that brings me onto my point, the lockdown isn't about emptying the streets, they would have done what some other places did if that was the aim. It was about massively reducing volumes and social interaction. That's what this lockdown is. I may go out a bit more this week than last, but I still can't go and interact with people, have a beer, go to the sport etc. 

People really need to be careful what they wish for when shouting for harsher lockdowns. If a harsher lockdown means we can knock tangible time off the curve, then maybe that should be supported, but if it is simply because people are sitting in their car judging other people in cars then we should be careful.

[wilsontown]

2 minutes ago, Dave T said:

People really need to be careful what they wish for when shouting for harsher lockdowns. If a harsher lockdown means we can knock tangible time off the curve, then maybe that should be supported, but if it is simply because people are sitting in their car judging other people in cars then we should be careful.

Absolutely this. The current measures are quite bad enough as far I'm concerned, there is no point in bringing in harsher measures unless they are going to be worth the effort.

[Northern Eel]

13 minutes ago, wilsontown said:

Absolutely this. The current measures are quite bad enough as far I'm concerned, there is no point in bringing in harsher measures unless they are going to be worth the effort.

To be clear, I am not advocating a harsher lockdown, just that we ensure the slackening of willpower doesn't manifest itself in a rise in infections that throws the whole thing back again. The concern is that, whilst some of that traffic is related to re-opening businesses, I would reckon not all does. When people see more traffic out, they may be inclined to think they can get away with it too. 

[SSoutherner]

1 hour ago, Northern Eel said:

You are right, but there are many on here, including myself, who are seeing more cars on the road this week than in the previous 3 weeks. That is the only point being made, I think.

To give you an idea of how it is being observed/enforced in Reading, mate set off for tesco about a week ago on a DR600 with a huge rucksack, he was stopped by a cop car and asked what he was doing, when he said he was told to go home as he could walk to Aldi or CoOp which were closer to his house and carry stuff home in the same rucksack

[Northern Eel]

4 minutes ago, SSoutherner said:

To give you an idea of how it is being observed/enforced in Reading, mate set off for tesco about a week ago on a DR600 with a huge rucksack, he was stopped by a cop car and asked what he was doing, when he said he was told to go home as he could walk to Aldi or CoOp which were closer to his house and carry stuff home in the same rucksack

Here in the Midlands (where cases/deaths are flat at best) I can honestly say I have not seen a police car for 4 weeks and I travel to school every day. The number of people I see out in the community around the school is increasing everyday, without doubt. This is an area in the top 3% most deprived in the country, very high numbers unemployed and only 5% had any form of further education according to the latest IDACI ratings. It scares me that in a matter of weeks, they are going to be pouring into the playground again, ready to 'share'.

I am sure it is different across the regions.

[Mumby Magic]

I think they are loosening the shackles without announcing as such and monitoring cases and fatalities. As stated it should have been full lockdown. Why allow chippys and not a pub for example? Why b and q but not a clothes shop. I feel it's away of quietly keeping parts of the economy going.

[LeeF]

12 minutes ago, Northern Eel said:

Here in the Midlands (where cases/deaths are flat at best) I can honestly say I have not seen a police car for 4 weeks and I travel to school every day. The number of people I see out in the community around the school is increasing everyday, without doubt. This is an area in the top 3% most deprived in the country, very high numbers unemployed and only 5% had any form of further education according to the latest IDACI ratings. It scares me that in a matter of weeks, they are going to be pouring into the playground again, ready to 'share'.

I am sure it is different across the regions.

I live in West Yorkshire I can only say that I’ve seen more police cars out & about over the last 5 weeks than in the previous 5 years.
 

Similarly traffic, based on my experience, is massively reduced albeit we still get the boy racers in an evening but that’s another issue

[silverback]

Well my mate next door does is shopping every wednesday in huddersfield morrisons, he said this morning he were 5th in a que in car park and only 10 minutes wait.last week he were 23rd in que and half an hour wait, 3 weeks ago he 55th and the que were all way to roundabout on main rd almost.

  Back to normal almost.

[Bedford Roughyed]

12 minutes ago, LeeF said:

I live in West Yorkshire I can only say that I’ve seen more police cars out & about over the last 5 weeks than in the previous 5 years.

It seems the perfect time to catch the dealers and burglars, as less of a crowd to hide in.  

[Dave T]

24 minutes ago, Mumby Magic said:

 Why allow chippys and not a pub for example?

Why b and q but not a clothes shop.

I feel it's away of quietly keeping parts of the economy going.

They are quite bad examples to be fair as the answers are obvious. 

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

4 hours ago, gingerjon said:

Actually, yes, this is a difference. The number of revved up Fiestas burning up and down the hill, especially after, say, 5pm has gone from 'none' in normal times to 'quite a few'.

Fiestas ? You must live in really poverty stricken area.  High power Audi's are the weapon of choice around here, S-3's, S-5's along with usual BMW M series and Merc AMG's. It's another world over here.

[Mumby Magic]

38 minutes ago, Dave T said:

They are quite bad examples to be fair as the answers are obvious. 

So a chippy and diy shop are essential?

[GUBRATS]

17 minutes ago, Mumby Magic said:

So a chippy and diy shop are essential?

You don't hang around eating your chips in the chippy as you would beer in a pub , the DIY thing is less obvious , and they are mostly doing click and collect , whereas again they'd be hanging around in a fashion shop ( fashion is a blight on the planet as it is ) 

[Mumby Magic]

7 minutes ago, GUBRATS said:

You don't hang around eating your chips in the chippy as you would beer in a pub , the DIY thing is less obvious , and they are mostly doing click and collect , whereas again they'd be hanging around in a fashion shop ( fashion is a blight on the planet as it is ) 

I get that but it shud be all in or not.

[Bedford Roughyed]

If deaths are around 2 weeks behind infections/hospitalisations does this not imply the deaths will continue at this level for a while before we see a sustained drop?

[Dave T]

24 minutes ago, Mumby Magic said:

So a chippy and diy shop are essential?

Chip shops are food providers where people go in and collect food or have it delivered. Pubs are places where people gather for food and drink. 

The likes of B&Q serve both the construction market and the public with many essential items. But even they are only just reopening. Clothes can be bought online, there is less of a need to have these stores open. 

And it should be remembered that essential isn't a requirement here. 

[Dave T]

1 minute ago, Mumby Magic said:

I get that but it shud be all in or not.

Why? What is the logic behind all or nothing, even if they are different? 

[gingerjon]

40 minutes ago, Tyrone Shoelaces said:

Fiestas ? You must live in really poverty stricken area.  High power Audi's are the weapon of choice around here, S-3's, S-5's along with usual BMW M series and Merc AMG's. It's another world over here.

St Leonards, mate. It’s not salubrious.

[Oldbear]

So what is the real position in the North of England for someone sat thousands of miles away? I have 2 sisters in the Midlands, but both are in the vulnerable category so haven’t left their home for weeks, and my mother in law is also self isolating due to age, therefore all I have to go on is BBC website and what I read on here. 
 

Just to give a brief review of where we are in Canada’s most western province, we have around 1,700 cases total and 85 deaths, we are told the most important number is number in hospitals and ICU, which are around 110 and 45 respectively. We have far lower numbers than Eastern Canada as we got lucky with our 2 week spring break holiday not starting till March 14, which meant the Government travel ban was put in place just before half of Vancouver set off for Maui, Florida, Arizona or Mexico, that was not the case in the East, they were coming back (from US and Europe) just as the ban went into force. 
I think our lockdown is similar to yours, only businesses deemed essential can open (mine is one, thankfully as I can also hire my sons who are home from eastern universities), there is a stay at home order in place and no non essential travel. Shopping is groceries, every shop has socially distanced line ups, a bit like Soviet era newsreels, especially when there’s still no toilet roll or cleaning products ( wouldn’t mind but toilet rolls are one of the few things manufactured in Vancouver). Publicly everyone says stand strong to beat this, privately everyone’s worried, Vancouvers main industries are tourism, financial and legal services (based mainly on a crazy property market) and the Port of Vancouver (doing a roaring trade in imported PPE, but not exporting so much oil and minerals), our chief medical officer is preparing us to be locked down for a long time as they are worried about what happens when the orange haired fool in the White House opens the border. Oh and I can’t see how Vancouver’s major sports teams start up, since Canucks and Whitecaps play in cross border leagues and BC Lions, like all CFL teams, uses predominantly American players.

[Futtocks]

25 minutes ago, GUBRATS said:

You don't hang around eating your chips in the chippy as you would beer in a pub , the DIY thing is less obvious , and they are mostly doing click and collect , whereas again they'd be hanging around in a fashion shop ( fashion is a blight on the planet as it is ) 

Plus in clothes shops, customers would handle the clothes even if they couldn't try them on, while a lot of stuff in a DIY store would be packaged.

[Les Tonks Sidestep]

19 minutes ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

If deaths are around 2 weeks behind infections/hospitalisations does this not imply the deaths will continue at this level for a while before we see a sustained drop?

Countries who've got over the hump (not many of course) are showing a slower rate of decrease than the rate of increase - not surprising as one person recovering doesn't lead to others doing the same. Here's Spain's daily deaths