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World cup - the bookies odds thread

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Maximus Decimus

Maximus Decimus

Posted
Posted
Just now, Dunbar said:

I'm not really thinking about past experience. I am thinking about the preparation of these two teams for Saturday's games.

But that's my point, whenever we've played the Aussies when they've arrived late etc we've been able to catch them cold rather than doing better later in the game.

Samoa might not be Aus but if they're -4 after never playing together, away from home and in an unfamiliar climate then they can't be far off.

What is the best system for Super League? An honest appraisal

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hunsletgreenandgold
hunsletgreenandgold

Not sure bookies work on sentiment or nostalgia. This will have been risk assessed quite thoroughly. Across a couple of threads you seem quite against the idea this Samoa side will do well this world

graveyard johnny
graveyard johnny

anyone who thinks the bookies dont know what they are doing is a fool - they have specialist teams employed working out statistics and likelihoods of out comes from the width of the in goal to the siz

Tex Evans Thigh
Tex Evans Thigh

Of course it does. Odds change all the time based on betting fluctuations. Large amounts of money being placed on Samoa will have shortened their odds.

Dunbar

Dunbar

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Maximus Decimus said:

But that's my point, whenever we've played the Aussies when they've arrived late etc we've been able to catch them cold rather than doing better later in the game.

Samoa might not be Aus but if they're -4 after never playing together, away from home and in an unfamiliar climate then they can't be far off.

OK, you think we will start more quickly than them as they are under prepared.

I will think we will outlast them as they have player's who haven't had a lot of game time recently. 

Should be a big win for us then.

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Maximus Decimus

Maximus Decimus

Posted
Posted
On 13/10/2022 at 20:21, Dunbar said:

OK, you think we will start more quickly than them as they are under prepared.

I will think we will outlast them as they have player's who haven't had a lot of game time recently. 

Should be a big win for us then.

Turns out we were both right!

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What is the best system for Super League? An honest appraisal

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MZH

MZH

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Posted

Not sure what the odds are now but England must have been slashed. In my book I'd have the Aussies about 1/2, England and NZ both around the 2/1 mark, and Tonga about 7/1. The rest, realistically, are playing for the minor positions.

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Damien

Damien

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, MZH said:

Not sure what the odds are now but England must have been slashed. In my book I'd have the Aussies about 1/2, England and NZ both around the 2/1 mark, and Tonga about 7/1. The rest, realistically, are playing for the minor positions.

England now 9/1 from 16/1 pre match with William Hill. I'd have thought they'd be lower.

Edited by Damien
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MZH

MZH

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6 minutes ago, Damien said:

England now 9/1 from 16/1 pre match with William Hill. I'd have thought they'd be lower.

Now that we have beaten Samoa we are unlikely to face another big challenge until the semis. 9/1 for us to essentially win 2 games is a silly price.

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Sports Prophet

Sports Prophet

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 05/10/2022 at 23:04, Bedfordshire Bronco said:

Agreed however....

Does the amount of money bet affect it? 

I.e. if enough punters put massive amounts of Samoa does that shorten them up ( I have no idea myself)

They wouldn’t be long in the bookie business if they didn’t.

Mathematicians first, sports fans second.

Edited by Sports Prophet
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The Partisan

The Partisan

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Posted
On 12/10/2022 at 17:56, The Partisan said:

After being 8 to 1 mid year England has floated out to 15 - 1 on Australia's TAB betting site. 

Now back to 7 - 1.

Glad I got on the 15's.  Will be a considerable contribution to my RLWC 2025 Savings Fund if England can hoist the trophy Nov 19. 

 

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Guest

Guest

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17 minutes ago, JimBronco said:

France on the handicap -24 to win vs Greece EVENS. Worth a £20 bet?

I would probably take France anything under 40. So would probably go France less say 36 and you could probably get 3/1 or 4/1 on that.

I think France are three tries better than Greece per half quite comfortably.

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JimBronco

JimBronco

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Posted
1 hour ago, Leonard said:

I would probably take France anything under 40. So would probably go France less say 36 and you could probably get 3/1 or 4/1 on that.

I think France are three tries better than Greece per half quite comfortably.

Better by three tries each half would mean the -24 points bet could be worth it. I'm going to lump some money on it. 

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Niels

Niels

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15 hours ago, Leonard said:

Had Italy at 10/1 to win by more than 10 points.

 

Easy money.

They massively overpriced Scotland yesterday.

Any thoughts on Tonga v PNG? 

Handicaps are difficult as some winning sides ease off. Also as we have seen, some losing sides cave in which distorts the score greatly. 

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AB90

AB90

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Niels said:

Any thoughts on Tonga v PNG? 

Handicaps are difficult as some winning sides ease off. Also as we have seen, some losing sides cave in which distorts the score greatly. 

I’ve got PNG +28.5 which I feel is pretty good value as they are gonna be right up for it.

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Niels

Niels

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, AB90 said:

I’ve got PNG +28.5 which I feel is pretty good value as they are gonna be right up for it.

Thanks.

Do you think Ireland at evens -2 v Lebanon is a good bet?

Lebanon had a bruising game against NZ and their Stand off may be suspended. 

Whereas Ireland had an easy win and their NRL players looked very good.

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AB90

AB90

Posted
Posted
Just now, Niels said:

Thanks.

Do you think Ireland at evens -2 v Lebanon is a good bet?

Lebanon had a bruising game against NZ and their Stand off may be suspended. 

Whereas Ireland had an easy win and their NRL players looked very good.

Yes especially without Douhi who is their second best player.

But if he plays, it’s a coin flip for me (however lean towards Ireland).

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