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14 minutes ago, Damien said:

As my teacher wife said, schools may as well have just continued as normal if this is the case with the children that they are used to because the bulk of children are going to be in anyway. Which kind of defeats the point of closing any schools.

A genuine conversation with a senior manager who should know better:

Her: "are they going to merge the still-open schools or run them essentially empty but for a few patients"

Me: "what percentage of pupils is in your mind?"

Her: "oh, 5-10% max?"

The hidden "key workers" is just coming to mind. I've no doubt the likes of Johnson and others thought much the same that these pupils would actually be a very small number. When the "oh, and add that lot, (service) will shut down without them" discussions took place, it'd have been good to see their faces at the real numbers.

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12 minutes ago, ckn said:

A genuine conversation with a senior manager who should know better:

Her: "are they going to merge the still-open schools or run them essentially empty but for a few patients"

Me: "what percentage of pupils is in your mind?"

Her: "oh, 5-10% max?"

The hidden "key workers" is just coming to mind. I've no doubt the likes of Johnson and others thought much the same that these pupils would actually be a very small number. When the "oh, and add that lot, (service) will shut down without them" discussions took place, it'd have been good to see their faces at the real numbers.

The wife is a big fan of following arguments on Mumsnet.

Right now, there's a bit kicking off about who is or who is not a key worker.

One example is a PA to a Consultant who believes she is.

My personal view: "health" is on the list but it is specifically those without whom the service could not function. So, right now, that does not include Consultant's PA. It probably does include most hospital workers but there are a fair number it doesn't.

Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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20 minutes ago, ckn said:

A genuine conversation with a senior manager who should know better:

Her: "are they going to merge the still-open schools or run them essentially empty but for a few patients"

Me: "what percentage of pupils is in your mind?"

Her: "oh, 5-10% max?"

The hidden "key workers" is just coming to mind. I've no doubt the likes of Johnson and others thought much the same that these pupils would actually be a very small number. When the "oh, and add that lot, (service) will shut down without them" discussions took place, it'd have been good to see their faces at the real numbers.

Indeed. Then once you throw in vulnerable children etc the figure grows even more. My wife's school has identified over half so far. Whether parents send those children in is another matter.

Teachers have major concerns about these plans and see them as unworkable. Many are genuinely worried for their health and that of their family and in particular their children that have health conditions who they could spread this to and about the contradictory messages they are receiving i.e we need to close schools to stop the spread as children are super spreaders etc but lets just open them for you to look after anyway. In the school my wife works many teachers and classroom assistants have already said they have underlying health conditions that prevent them from working and senior management can see many refusing to do this through one excuse or another.

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3 minutes ago, gingerjon said:

The wife is a big fan of following arguments on Mumsnet.

Right now, there's a bit kicking off about who is or who is not a key worker.

One example is a PA to a Consultant who believes she is.

My personal view: "health" is on the list but it is specifically those without whom the service could not function. So, right now, that does not include Consultant's PA. It probably does include most hospital workers but there are a fair number it doesn't.

I did write it before, but when working on a pandemic response document, we never consider consultants who write such documents to be essential. The idea was we had written it down and were therefore expendable. MY qualification to being essential was that a decade previously I had worked in a clean room as an operator.

I think we are all OK to laugh at your PA lady ?

"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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4 minutes ago, Damien said:

Indeed. Then once you throw in vulnerable children etc the figure grows even more. My wife's school has identified over half so far. Whether parents send those children in is another matter.

Teachers have major concerns about these plans and see them as unworkable. Many are genuinely worried for their health and that of their family and in particular their children that have health conditions who they could spread this to and about the contradictory messages they are receiving i.e we need to close schools to stop the spread as children are super spreaders etc but lets just open them for you to look after anyway. In the school my wife works many teachers and classroom assistants have already said they have underlying health conditions that prevent them from working and senior management can see many refusing to do this through one excuse or another.

Because they are ignorant, it seems that "having an EHCP" now makes someone vulnerable.

But you can get an EHCP for being dyslexic just as you can for coming from a house with an abusive parent who has left you mentally scarred and requiring support to complete even the most basic tasks.

They don't both need to be in school next week.

Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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Just now, gingerjon said:

The wife is a big fan of following arguments on Mumsnet.

Right now, there's a bit kicking off about who is or who is not a key worker.

One example is a PA to a Consultant who believes she is.

My personal view: "health" is on the list but it is specifically those without whom the service could not function. So, right now, that does not include Consultant's PA. It probably does include most hospital workers but there are a fair number it doesn't.

Pro and con arguments for you to think through:

If it's a respiratory or emergency department Consultant then anything that frees up their time is priceless, a good PA is worth every penny when you're squeezing every minute of clinical time.

If it's an orthopod's PA then they'll be busy working with patients who are now left to realise they're on their own with pain until this ends, I've no doubt they'll be busier than ever. Even once they manage out the waiting list, they have to keep a firm track of patients, priorities and so on to ensure that the orthopod (who's now a repurposed general medicine doctor) can deal with clinical emergencies or rapidly deteriorating patients. Then there's trying to keep a running list of patient priorities for when the crisis ends.

Other examples, our Chair's PA (he's a GP) had to be told (ordered) to stop working last night because she'd spent the day trying to drag the right people into meetings, ensure people had seen the most up-to-date information, rounded up supplies, got food ordered in for the clinical team and so on. She did just as much work as the clinicians.

But... and it's a very important but. These people CAN do their job at home. It requires a little bit of nouse to do it but there's very few desk jobs that cannot be done at home. Our entire admin service is now home based and instructed to self-isolate to high levels where possible, the main reason for that is that they must be able to support clinicians and if they get ill then they can't do that job.  For these people, school coverage should not be a priority.

The reason I say that is that there's no point self-isolating if you're just going to send your kids to a place they can easily get infected, they come home then infect you anyway. Also, they're school age kids so should be less disruptive than a school run during a typical working day.

So, no black/white answer, but some pros/cons can be run up for almost any NHS job.

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4 minutes ago, ckn said:

So, no black/white answer, but some pros/cons can be run up for almost any NHS job.

Aye, all that is fair.

I guess the ultimate decider should be: can this job be done away from the frontline service area?

If it can then it is not 'key' and the child should be home with a travel-restricted parent rather than both of them spending days in possible infectious environments.

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Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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2 minutes ago, gingerjon said:

Aye, all that is fair.

I guess the ultimate decider should be: can this job be done away from the frontline service area?

If it can then it is not 'key' and the child should be home with a travel-restricted parent rather than both of them spending days in possible infectious environments.

It's poor terminology in that matter. Maybe "school priority" rather than "key" would force the right levels of thinking.

The levels of "presenteeism" in the NHS is just shocking. Too many unnecessary folk being dragged into offices in the NHS.

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"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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Oh forgot to say the amount of abuse that was directed at some teachers by some parents in my wife's school yesterday was despicable. All because the school is closing as per Government policy. One parent who was the worst and ranting down the phone to my wife only actually works part time 2 days a week in a far from essential job. I feel for the parents that are caused genuine difficulties by schools closing, our household is one but luckily I can work from home, but many simply see schools as a glorified baby sitting service and don't actually want a bit of their own kids.

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15 minutes ago, Damien said:

Oh forgot to say the amount of abuse that was directed at some teachers by some parents in my wife's school yesterday was despicable. All because the school is closing as per Government policy. One parent who was the worst and ranting down the phone to my wife only actually works part time 2 days a week in a far from essential job. I feel for the parents that are caused genuine difficulties by schools closing, our household is one but luckily I can work from home, but many simply see schools as a glorified baby sitting service and don't actually want a bit of their own kids.

i am a bit more charitable as i know for a lot of those parents the teachers are just the brunt of their frustration, they may be very close to the edge financially and those 2 days a week part time may be what is keeping the families heads above water.

They cant shout at a virus so it is the person seemingly embodying the issues standing in front of them and thus takes the brunt of it - i am adapt at holding phone near my ear making soothing "active listening" sounds whilst actually tuning out

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16 minutes ago, Smudger06 said:

HGV Drivers Hours have been relaxed. Meaning drivers previously limited by law to 90 hours driving time per fortnight can now do much more, that will help the supply chains. 

i have a mate who is ex forces he drives fuel tankers for a living and is trying to find out how to volunteer to drive the oxygen tankers as he reckons he has the hazardous load skills - he also got a letter asking if he wished to re-enlist for a 12 month period

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2 hours ago, ckn said:

Also, when you see northern Italy with some of the most advanced healthcare capacity in Europe having to make hard age- and health-based decisions on who should get ventilators, that should give people real pause. People are being left to die who may be saveable because there’s no resources to keep them alive, resources are being aimed at those most likely to survive rather than everyone who may survive. 

But selfish folk will be selfish folk and keep partying because they’re likely to get through an infection alive. And damn everyone else they infect. 

I know there are (unconfirmed AFAIK) reports of 2 strains of the virus existing but hopefully the events in Italy aren't a sign of mutation to something 'nastier' as thought to have occured with the 2nd wave of Spanish flu when younger people bore the brunt - I haven't seen any age/health breakdown of deaths over there.

As for the selfish, there was someone interviewed on the streets of London yesterday who was going to ignore the advice and essentially said "others should stay in so I can go out." A prime candidate to be 'banged up' for the duration.

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7 minutes ago, Les Tonks Sidestep said:

I know there are (unconfirmed AFAIK) reports of 2 strains of the virus existing but hopefully the events in Italy aren't a sign of mutation to something 'nastier' as thought to have occured with the 2nd wave of Spanish flu when younger people bore the brunt - I haven't seen any age/health breakdown of deaths over there.

As for the selfish, there was someone interviewed on the streets of London yesterday who was going to ignore the advice and essentially said "others should stay in so I can go out." A prime candidate to be 'banged up' for the duration.

The same people will be the first to be on Facebook bemoaning fate and random luck when their gran dies because of their gross negligence.

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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7 minutes ago, Les Tonks Sidestep said:

I know there are (unconfirmed AFAIK) reports of 2 strains of the virus existing but hopefully the events in Italy aren't a sign of mutation to something 'nastier' as thought to have occured with the 2nd wave of Spanish flu when younger people bore the brunt - I haven't seen any age/health breakdown of deaths over there.

 

not a breakdown of deaths but https://www.statista.com/statistics/1103023/coronavirus-cases-distribution-by-age-group-italy/ as of 2 days ago 75% of cases in the over 50's

this is up to date details (but not broken down by age) stats on the Italian situation - i am not a statistician (other than ecconometrics at uni and A level maths, further maths & geography) but i would have expected an uptick on some of those graphs if a second more aggressive strain emerged, especially the graph showing outcomes (recovery or death)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

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1 minute ago, SSoutherner said:

not a breakdown of deaths but https://www.statista.com/statistics/1103023/coronavirus-cases-distribution-by-age-group-italy/ as of 2 days ago 75% of cases in the over 50's

this is up to date details (but not broken down by age) stats on the Italian situation - i am not a statistician (other than ecconometrics at uni and A level maths, further maths & geography) but i would have expected an uptick on some of those graphs if a second more aggressive strain emerged, especially the graph showing outcomes (recovery or death)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

The eyebrow raising point is the "recovered" figure is so low in comparison with deaths. I'm assuming (with all be best will in the world) that this is simply because they've not got the capacity to test previously infected people who are no longer symptomatic.

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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10 minutes ago, ckn said:

The eyebrow raising point is the "recovered" figure is so low in comparison with deaths. I'm assuming (with all be best will in the world) that this is simply because they've not got the capacity to test previously infected people who are no longer symptomatic.

yes it seems to have plateaued doesnt it at mid 50%'s 

 

EDIT - just seen looking carefully that is CUMULATIVE death vs recovery, but appears to show pretty much a 50/50 (57/43) split so must be just of those entering hospital or even ITU as that is way over the standard mortality being given. Or as you say they do not have the capacity to actually confirm people recovered as more important to deal with the sick

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The company I work for is in Bloomberg news.... mulling possible bankruptcy.... happy Friday! ?

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With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

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21 hours ago, Smudger06 said:

Again, idiocy. People are totally ignorant as to what a lockdown could mean. They think it's going to be martial law and no one will be allowed out for any reason. 

Some people shouldn't be allowed out, except at night, me included.

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Where were you last Thursday?

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Just now, Bleep1673 said:

China declaring itself new virus free for the second day. 

Do we believe them?

Not remotely.

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Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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5 minutes ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

The company I work for is in Bloomberg news.... mulling possible bankruptcy.... happy Friday! ?

Blinkin' 'eck.

Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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20 minutes ago, Les Tonks Sidestep said:

I know there are (unconfirmed AFAIK) reports of 2 strains of the virus existing but hopefully the events in Italy aren't a sign of mutation to something 'nastier' as thought to have occured with the 2nd wave of Spanish flu when younger people bore the brunt - I haven't seen any age/health breakdown of deaths over there.

As for the selfish, there was someone interviewed on the streets of London yesterday who was going to ignore the advice and essentially said "others should stay in so I can go out." A prime candidate to be 'banged up' for the duration.

Typically, viruses mutate to be less dangerous to their hosts. This is not going to happen within a couple of years. 

These measures are brought in assuming some will overreact and others will ignore or even take advantage. 

"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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1 minute ago, gingerjon said:

Blinkin' 'eck.

The funding taps have been turned off rather quickly.  

With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

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