coronavirus

[SSoutherner]

10 minutes ago, ckn said:

The eyebrow raising point is the "recovered" figure is so low in comparison with deaths. I'm assuming (with all be best will in the world) that this is simply because they've not got the capacity to test previously infected people who are no longer symptomatic.

yes it seems to have plateaued doesnt it at mid 50%'s 

 

EDIT - just seen looking carefully that is CUMULATIVE death vs recovery, but appears to show pretty much a 50/50 (57/43) split so must be just of those entering hospital or even ITU as that is way over the standard mortality being given. Or as you say they do not have the capacity to actually confirm people recovered as more important to deal with the sick

[Bedford Roughyed]

The company I work for is in Bloomberg news.... mulling possible bankruptcy.... happy Friday! 

[Bleep1673]

21 hours ago, Smudger06 said:

Again, idiocy. People are totally ignorant as to what a lockdown could mean. They think it's going to be martial law and no one will be allowed out for any reason. 

Some people shouldn't be allowed out, except at night, me included.

[Bleep1673]

China declaring itself new virus free for the second day. 

Do we believe them?

[gingerjon]

Just now, Bleep1673 said:

China declaring itself new virus free for the second day. 

Do we believe them?

Not remotely.

[gingerjon]

5 minutes ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

The company I work for is in Bloomberg news.... mulling possible bankruptcy.... happy Friday! 

Blinkin' 'eck.

[Bob8]

20 minutes ago, Les Tonks Sidestep said:

I know there are (unconfirmed AFAIK) reports of 2 strains of the virus existing but hopefully the events in Italy aren't a sign of mutation to something 'nastier' as thought to have occured with the 2nd wave of Spanish flu when younger people bore the brunt - I haven't seen any age/health breakdown of deaths over there.

As for the selfish, there was someone interviewed on the streets of London yesterday who was going to ignore the advice and essentially said "others should stay in so I can go out." A prime candidate to be 'banged up' for the duration.

Typically, viruses mutate to be less dangerous to their hosts. This is not going to happen within a couple of years. 

These measures are brought in assuming some will overreact and others will ignore or even take advantage. 

[Bedford Roughyed]

1 minute ago, gingerjon said:

Blinkin' 'eck.

The funding taps have been turned off rather quickly.  

[SSoutherner]

6 minutes ago, Bob8 said:

Typically, viruses mutate to be less dangerous to their hosts. This is not going to happen within a couple of years. 

 

Or rather any mutations to a more aggressive strain burn themselves out really quick by killing their host before they can pass it on whilst the less aggressive strains are able to be passed easier on by hosts still able to function

In nature an animal lieing on the ground gasping for breath unable to run away wont last too long -  the crows will have a go at the eyes if nothing else

[Smudger06]

6 minutes ago, Bleep1673 said:

China declaring itself new virus free for the second day. 

Do we believe them?

Absolutely no chance. 

[ckn]

12 minutes ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

The company I work for is in Bloomberg news.... mulling possible bankruptcy.... happy Friday! 

So, not taking up the government's offer to take loans to keep going? Surprising for a big company (no sarcasm!)

Best wishes for what this means for you!

[ckn]

2 minutes ago, SSoutherner said:

Or rather any mutations to a more aggressive strain burn themselves out really quick by killing their host before they can pass it on whilst the less aggressive strains are able to be passed easier on by hosts still able to function

In nature an animal lieing on the ground gasping for breath unable to run away wont last too long -  the crows will have a go at the eyes if nothing else

Heard that twice yesterday from people who know. e.g. MERS burned itself out as too efficient a kilker while this one is just not lethal enough so that it gets itself out there and spreading. If it mutates to more lethal then it'll burn out faster and kill fewer people.

[Bedford Roughyed]

3 minutes ago, ckn said:

So, not taking up the government's offer to take loans to keep going? Surprising for a big company (no sarcasm!)

Best wishes for what this means for you!

No idea, we are UK/USA company so the news might be a tactical leak to get funding flowing again.  

[ckn]

Just now, Bedford Roughyed said:

No idea, we are UK/USA company so the news might be a tactical leak to get funding flowing again.  

I'm out of this market now so only going by what I'm seeing in the news and on social media groups I'm involved with but it looks like the banks (all of them) are in zero rush to implement the guarantee of loans and get easy liquidity going. I've seen one example of someone being asked to sign a directors' guarantee to get the loan, but if it's government guaranteed then why do they need a directors' guarantee? If that's common then that'll put people off signing up as if they walk away now then limited liability protects what they have but a directors' guarantee puts their personal security at risk.

[Smudger06]

I'm on my usual Observation Post. People know when the main delivery to the supermarket comes in. 9am. Wait 1.5 hrs and then pounce. Super busy right now. I went in for my usual buys at 9am, nothing in stock, busier than usual at 9, but nowhere near the rush at present. 

[redjonn]

12 hours ago, Maximus Decimus said:

My missus showed me a copy that her headteacher had shared; she only told me after she posted that it was from NI. They do seem to be quite in step with us though, so I'm not sure it will be much different.

Delaying until tomorrow seems crazy and way too late to be able to sort this out properly. Put it this way my school has identified around 120 children (out of 350) that they think might be eligible whereas my wife's school is expecting less than this despite being a 1600 pupil secondary school. School's basically have no idea what to do.

 

I make the following comment on the fact it has been clearly signposted for a number of weeks that schools will be eventually closed except for key works, plus clear from reports from other countries...

I'm not being unsympathetic but it is a national emergency, thus yep have to plan to a number of contingencies even if that means like whitehall and other civil servants working over the weekend to sort.

Yep how to organise whichever children is difficult and no doubt the first few days will be confusing for parents and hence many will no doubt bring in children that shouldn't be be on the list.

All teachers not isolating will in the first instance be in school on Monday, maybe even those available attend a meeting on Sunday or those that are the leaders do and then communicate with the other teachers. A rough programme to deal with first few days until settles and then put in place another plan...

Yep, its difficult but if remember the aim is to allow essential services to function to enable the NHS to save as many lives as possible and distribution networks work to get food to people then it shouldn't be difficult to cut a few different plans. Even if it ends up being more than expected.

Even if start with say 75% plan, then as message gets through fully to parents, 50% then 25% then to the final number.

Yep seems confusing but I would be surprised and asking question to head teachers why they haven't already got such plans.

yep no doubt lots of media stories in first few days next week with all sorts of parents ignoring and schools initial struggle.. but by end of week I am sure it will be much better.  I would be surprised if government/civil servants have not accounted for initial numbers being higher until it settles. Key is its working effectively when needed which I suspect that schools are being asked to semi close ahead of that key time slot.

as I say I find it surprising that schools haven't already been working on plans and don't have initial plans based on a gradually lower number of children as the work progresses.  Yep of course their will be individual teachers and even their representatives bemoaning but the forthcoming closures have been clearly signposted for weeks.

 

[SSoutherner]

8 minutes ago, redjonn said:

I make the following comment on the fact it has been clearly signposted for a number of weeks that schools will be eventually closed except for key works, plus clear from reports from other countries...

I'm not being unsympathetic but it is a national emergency, thus yep have to plan to a number of contingencies even if that means like whitehall and other civil servants working over the weekend to sort.

Yep how to organise whichever children is difficult and no doubt the first few days will be confusing for parents and hence many will no doubt bring in children that shouldn't be be on the list.

All teachers not isolating will in the first instance be in school on Monday, maybe even those available attend a meeting on Sunday or those that are the leaders do and then communicate with the other teachers. A rough programme to deal with first few days until settles and then put in place another plan...

Yep, its difficult but if remember the aim is to allow essential services to function to enable the NHS to save as many lives as possible and distribution networks work to get food to people then it shouldn't be difficult to cut a few different plans. Even if it ends up being more than expected.

Even if start with say 75% plan, then as message gets through fully to parents, 50% then 25% then to the final number.

Yep seems confusing but I would be surprised and asking question to head teachers why they haven't already got such plans.

yep no doubt lots of media stories in first few days next week with all sorts of parents ignoring and schools initial struggle.. but by end of week I am sure it will be much better.  I would be surprised if government/civil servants have not accounted for initial numbers being higher until it settles. Key is its working effectively when needed which I suspect that schools are being asked to semi close ahead of that key time slot.

as I say I find it surprising that schools haven't already been working on plans and don't have initial plans based on a gradually lower number of children as the work progresses.  Yep of course their will be individual teachers and even their representatives bemoaning but the forthcoming closures have been clearly signposted for weeks.

 

Our school have a plan and have communicated it well - they were a bit caught out by the inclusiveness of the gov list as bigger than expected, the only other issue is just staffing as they already had 13 off self isolating either due to health conditions or precautionary so they are not sure who they will have to man the classrooms and dont want to over fill rooms for obvious reasons

[Bleep1673]

45 minutes ago, Smudger06 said:

Absolutely no chance. 

BoJo/Trump style FAKE NEWS

[SSoutherner]

9 minutes ago, Bleep1673 said:

BoJo/Trump style FAKE NEWS

Especially given this

Hong Kong records biggest daily jump in cases

The Chinese territory says it has recorded 48 new cases of the virus, its biggest daily jump.

Medical experts have warned of the renewed risk of a sustained outbreak because of residents returning from overseas, the South China Morning Post reports.

“This is the worst time to relax because we’re at the highest risk since this began,” said Prof Gabriel Leung, dean of the University of Hong Kong’s medical faculty and a member of an official expert panel on the outbreak.

“It is absolutely critical especially as we have this influx of Hong Kong returnees starting from a few days ago and continuing for the next few days. This is the highest risk and we must be extra vigilant.”

Hong Kong has had 208 cases confirmed so far and four deaths, Reuters news agency reports

[redjonn]

7 minutes ago, SSoutherner said:

Our school have a plan and have communicated it well - they were a bit caught out by the inclusiveness of the gov list as bigger than expected, the only other issue is just staffing as they already had 13 off self isolating either due to health conditions or precautionary so they are not sure who they will have to man the classrooms and dont want to over fill rooms for obvious reasons

yep can see difficulties...

no doubt no matter how well some schools have planned, initially some parents will not get the message fully and some non priority pupils will arrive first day. No doubt lots of media stories next week over some of the initial struggles/confusion and parents taking out frustration upon teachers. Especially when some union leaders want to take opportunity to score political points...

Never-the=less and as you say most of not all schools will have prepared plans, hopefully expecting initially more pupils than should but as days move on less and less. My experience is that Head Teachers and fellow teachers are normally relative good at preparation of plan.  

[MattSantos]

47 minutes ago, ckn said:

I'm out of this market now so only going by what I'm seeing in the news and on social media groups I'm involved with but it looks like the banks (all of them) are in zero rush to implement the guarantee of loans and get easy liquidity going. I've seen one example of someone being asked to sign a directors' guarantee to get the loan, but if it's government guaranteed then why do they need a directors' guarantee? If that's common then that'll put people off signing up as if they walk away now then limited liability protects what they have but a directors' guarantee puts their personal security at risk.

Banks don't have that much liquidity above and beyond their obligation. This is to be expected, their obligations on this are now huge post Basel 3.

[ckn]

2 minutes ago, MattSantos said:

Banks don't have that much liquidity above and beyond their obligation. This is to be expected, their obligations on this are now huge post Basel 3.

I'm by no means even a knowledgeable amateur on this so apologies for the clarification questions here:

Does this mean that the government wouldn't just have to act as guarantor but provide direct liquidity funds to the banks? Would they do this through zero-interest loans to the banks where the banks would pay back as debtors repaid?

Do you know a better way to do it if you were in charge?

[LeeF]

1 minute ago, ckn said:

I'm by no means even a knowledgeable amateur on this so apologies for the clarification questions here:

Does this mean that the government wouldn't just have to act as guarantor but provide direct liquidity funds to the banks? Would they do this through zero-interest loans to the banks where the banks would pay back as debtors repaid?

Do you know a better way to do it if you were in charge?

The new scheme is expected to be a version of the SFLG/ EFG scheme. The criteria is, as far as I know, currently being agreed/ finalised. At a guess the business would have had to be viable before Covid19 and expected to be viable once “normality” returns

Any loans made will be guaranteed for 80% by the Government with the lender taking the other 20% of the risk assuming the loan is not repaid

These loans are separate to asking your lender to amend the terms of existing facilities eg increased facilities/ capital holidays etc. If a business needs to discuss these options then they should contact their Bank ASAP

[SSoutherner]

Post Basel3 they are in a much better place

If the liquidity rules are relaxed all that stored liquidity ensured by Basel3 is released to cope with the crisis - that was exactly why it was implemented (Brother is subject matter expert in this called in to give treasury advice on it re Brexit)

Basel 3 meant over double the reserves they had to hold under Basel 2

[Wiltshire Rhino]

My daughter works for Trussell Trust, the charity that runs Food Banks. There has been a major drop-off in donations since this vinus scare. I know that people's first responsibility is to their own families but, if you're still able to, don't forget other families too.

 

I don't write many serious posts but this is one.

 

Still remember to laugh though...