May 2016 Elections Thread

[Saintslass]

The most interesting result is definitely north of the border.  The Tories have turned things around in Scotland.  Becoming the second largest party having won 16 extra seats is some achievement. 

[WearyRhino]

The most interesting result is definitely north of the border.  The Tories have turned things around in Scotland.  Becoming the second largest party having won 16 extra seats is some achievement. 

 

 

Scottish politics is now simply a battle between Unionism and Independence. Unfortunately, Labour (and the Lib Dems) fall between the two.

[gingerjon]

Neil Hamilton proves satire is dead.

[gingerjon]

The most interesting result is definitely north of the border

 

We agree!

 

That said, a few weeks ago the same pundits that confidently predicted a hung parliament were confidently predicting a massive loss of seats for Labour as the 2012 round of elections represented a high point for Milibandian gains (apparently).  What essentially seems to have happened in England at least is stagnation - I can't really see anywhere that's done anything dramatic.  The Tories have stuck where they were when there was a genuine midterm revolt four years ago, Labour haven't lost those seats they gained or challenged elsewhere, Ukip have picked up a few, the Greens seem to have lost their way a bit really, and the Lib Dems seem to be reverting back to type at being effective on the ground where there is any strength but very, very weak away from that.

 

Wales is kind of interesting in that, like Scotland, the government hasn't changed but the mechanics of opposition have.  Ukip have done well - there's clearly a lot of anti-establishment feeling that regards Plaid as being part of that establishment.

[bowes]

We agree!

That said, a few weeks ago the same pundits that confidently predicted a hung parliament were confidently predicting a massive loss of seats for Labour as the 2012 round of elections represented a high point for Milibandian gains (apparently). What essentially seems to have happened in England at least is stagnation - I can't really see anywhere that's done anything dramatic. The Tories have stuck where they were when there was a genuine midterm revolt four years ago, Labour haven't lost those seats they gained or challenged elsewhere, Ukip have picked up a few, the Greens seem to have lost their way a bit really, and the Lib Dems seem to be reverting back to type at being effective on the ground where there is any strength but very, very weak away from that.

Wales is kind of interesting in that, like Scotland, the government hasn't changed but the mechanics of opposition have. Ukip have done well - there's clearly a lot of anti-establishment feeling that regards Plaid as being part of that establishment.

I think the fact that swing voter areas tend towards Conservatives in Westminster and Labour in the local elections is interesting. To some extent it will be people liking their local candidate who got in when Labour were more popular but I think it also implies that people tend to lean left on local issues (cuts to public services) but right on national issues (immigration and defence)

[Dave T]

Scottish politics is now simply a battle between Unionism and Independence. Unfortunately, Labour (and the Lib Dems) fall between the two.

Labour don't fall between Unionism or Independence, they were quite clear where they stood on independence.

[ckn]

I think I'd be calling for a more thorough investigation into this if I were the councillor involved.  Winning margin number of Labour votes accidentally put in the Tory pile.

[ckn]

To put the Tories coming second in Scotland into context, when looked at the position 20 years ago this would be like the SNP becoming the official opposition in the House of Commons.  Just unthinkable given the recent history and it wasn't by the small proportion thought even a few weeks ago.

 

Same with the Lib Dems, they're the fifth party in Scotland now having been overtaken by the Greens.  Again, an unthinkable place for the Lib Dems given their former strengths in Scotland.

[WearyRhino]

I think I'd be calling for a more thorough investigation into this if I were the councillor involved.  Winning margin number of Labour votes accidentally put in the Tory pile.

 

 

When I did election agent training, 30 years ago, we were told to watch what happens to the ballots when bundled up, make sure that none of our votes were inadvertently bundled up with opposition votes, and to make sure that the bundles were all put into the correct piles. The natural tendency is to watch the votes being counted, where you can pick out the ticks for the opposition, signed ballots, spoiled papers etc that you can argue about with the Returning Officer later. You might gain one or 2 votes/lose a few for the opposition that way but you can lose hundreds if they're not bundled and piled correctly.

 

I really think it's about time we started machine counting to be honest.

[WearyRhino]

Labour don't fall between Unionism or Independence, they were quite clear where they stood on independence.

 

You're right, although there was a small Labour independence element. My point is more that the obvious choices for unionism and independence are the Conservative and Unionist Party and the Scottish National Party respectively. 

[Saintslass]

To put the Tories coming second in Scotland into context, when looked at the position 20 years ago this would be like the SNP becoming the official opposition in the House of Commons.  Just unthinkable given the recent history and it wasn't by the small proportion thought even a few weeks ago.

 

I suppose the Tories' turnaround in Scotland is a good example of what the passage of time and a very good leader can do.  (Oh, and I'm referring there to the leader of the Scottish Conservatives btw, not Cameron!)

[Saint Toppy]

Pretty poor result overall for Labour I'd say. Scotland was a disaster for them but am I right in thinking that Corbyn is the first Labour leader ever to lose seats in their first round of elections after they became leader ? 

 

Even with the Tories in disarray and in the midst of an EU civil war, for Labour not to make gains says just about everything for their chances of forming the next government as long as Corbyn is in charge.

[Trojan]

Pretty poor result overall for Labour I'd say. Scotland was a disaster for them but am I right in thinking that Corbyn is the first Labour leader ever to lose seats in their first round of elections after they became leader ? 

 

Even with the Tories in disarray and in the midst of an EU civil war, for Labour not to make gains says just about everything for their chances of forming the next government as long as Corbyn is in charge.

I'd say not a bad result for Labour given that these seats were last contested at the peak of the Osborne "omnishambles" budget. )(in England that is)  Labour got about as high as it possibly could that year.  Only a Tory wearing blinkers could describe this as a poor result.  Indeed 4 years ago IIRC Boris's win was described by the Tory spin as brilliant because it went against the huge surge for Labour. Scotland must have been very disappointing for them, but I'm sure I saw a poll somewhere that put the actual percentage figures on Labour 23%, Tories 22%. 

Scotland is a continuing disaster for Labour.  Blair's fault of course.  Thought he could ignore the core Labour vote, and they didn't come any more core than Scotland.  Until either something dreadful happens to the SNP or they find a way of disarming the SNP line that they are really Tories, matters won't improve.

[Dave T]

I suppose the Tories' turnaround in Scotland is a good example of what the passage of time and a very good leader can do.  (Oh, and I'm referring there to the leader of the Scottish Conservatives btw, not Cameron!)

I thought Ruth Davidson ran a very strong campaign, and ultimately achieved what she set out to do, so a very successful campaign.

 

She came across as the best of the leaders here in Scotland, and it is amazing what a strong leader can do for a party. Sturgeon and the SNP have had a very easy time for a while here now, so it will be interesting to see if they can have an effective opposition, although my personal preference was that it would be in the form of a Labour opposition.

[Saint Toppy]

I'd say not a bad result for Labour

Results so far for Labour;

 

Scotland -14 seats

Wales -1 seat

England -25 seats

 

Not big losses, but still losses all the same.

Every previous new leader has had the 'feel good' factor and made gains. It really doesn't bode well for Corbyn, especially as the Tories will have a new leader before the next general election

[Robin Evans]

Chuffed to bits that my lad is re-elected to serve his community for another 4 years.

I can't help bite when i hear folk saying "councillors do bug ger all, just pocket ecpenses" etc etc etc....

 

I know exactly how much effort he has put into serving the community these last 12 months. I know exactly how many hours he's wracked up at all hours. And I know exactly what his remuneration for this is.......

 

Well done owd cock.... well chuffed.

[ckn]

I thought Ruth Davidson ran a very strong campaign, and ultimately achieved what she set out to do, so a very successful campaign.

 

She came across as the best of the leaders here in Scotland, and it is amazing what a strong leader can do for a party. Sturgeon and the SNP have had a very easy time for a while here now, so it will be interesting to see if they can have an effective opposition, although my personal preference was that it would be in the form of a Labour opposition.

A lot of credit in Scotland must go to Annabel Goldie for her years of effort in rehabilitating the Tory brand in Scotland then hand it over.  Her role was the equivalent role of Kinnock in the Labour party in rehabilitation; she was every adept at using the small Tory position to negotiate with the minority SNP in getting Tory policies enacted despite being the 4th party.

[Shadow]

For the first time since i became eligible I did not vote, we only had the Police Commissioner to elect and having checked all the candidates manifestos none of them had a position on encouraging millionaire playboys to develop high tech costumes to assist in crime fighting so there was no one I felt I could support.

[Futtocks]

Neil Hamilton proves satire is dead.

Tom Lehrer was just considering coming out of retirement, then this!  

[ckn]

Labour and Lib Dems screwed over because Labour refused to put in a fully PR system when the Scottish Parliament was created and the Lib Dems actively supported the current model.  Both had the arrogance then to think they had the country sewn up as their own little fiefdom.

[gingerjon]

Goldsmith off to become a Welsh Assembly member in 20 years then ...

[Trojan]

Results so far for Labour;

 

Scotland -14 seats

Wales -1 seat

England -25 seats

 

Not big losses, but still losses all the same.

Every previous new leader has had the 'feel good' factor and made gains. It really doesn't bode well for Corbyn, especially as the Tories will have a new leader before the next general election

If you read my post you'll see that I excepted Scotland.  But given the dire predictions of 150 seat losses not really that bad. 

[JohnM]

Meanwhile, on Planet Earth, http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/may/06/jeremy-corbyn-leadership-labour-mps-elections

[Griff9of13]

So Tory London mayor candidate scuppered by their blatant islamaphobic campaign. What will the Tories do to address the culture of islamaphobia in their party?

[ckn]

Interesting to read the Telegraph's take on Sadiq Khan's win in London.  Their live blog is heavy on the criticism of the negative campaign and false extremism claims from the Tory camp with not-so-veiled criticism of the Crosby attacking style of politicking.  Even printing Jemima Khan's (Goldsmith's sister) twitter comment about it not reflecting the man.  Then there are the in-house Tory negative comments about the campaign.

 

Also, they're making a good bit of Khan having the largest electoral mandate in British history at over 1.1m votes just for him, beating Boris's 1.04m in 2008.

 

A very robust reporting line from the Telegraph that I'd normally expect to read in the Indy or Guardian.