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Widnes

Col81

By Col81
in The General Rugby League Forum

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The Blues Ox

The Blues Ox

Posted
Posted
18 hours ago, Col81 said:

Just looked at championship betting Widnes 2nd favs at 5/2 seems crazy how can this be they have lost nearly all the team and have to start again 

They should still fair better than a lot of teams though although I think Toulouse will finish above them and hope that Fax can give them a run for their money also. just a shame that London went up as Toronto would have faired better in SL and London in this league makes it one hell of a fight to get to the grand final.

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DavidM

DavidM

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, fevtom said:

Where have you found the odds? I can hardly ever find outright odds for the championship. Do they have them for League one too? 

Toronto 5-4 Widnes 11-4 Toulouse 13-2 Bradford 8 Fev 14 Fax , Leigh 16 York 20

skybet

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chuffer

chuffer

Posted
Posted

Fairly standard i would have thought (that bookies expect a recently relegated team to do well in the lower division)....yeh we've lost a load of players but not many of them have done much this season to warrant being missed....i expect we'll be top 4, possibly top 3....toronto and toulouse have already proven that they can beat us so expect them to be top 2

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dboy

dboy

Posted
Posted

Do we have to do this every sodding year!?

Bookies odds reflect the money wagered against a given outcome, and thus the potential loss to said booky.

The more money likely to be (early markets), and ultimately actually wagered on a given outcome, the lower the odds.

Hence, bookies expect more money to be wagered on Widnes than say, York.

Odds are a reflection of exposure to loss, not simply a reflection of likelihood.

See you again in 12 months to explain it all over again, I suspect.

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Niels

Niels

Posted
Posted
40 minutes ago, dboy said:

Do we have to do this every sodding year!?

Bookies odds reflect the money wagered against a given outcome, and thus the potential loss to said booky.

The more money likely to be (early markets), and ultimately actually wagered on a given outcome, the lower the odds.

Hence, bookies expect more money to be wagered on Widnes than say, York.

Odds are a reflection of exposure to loss, not simply a reflection of likelihood.

See you again in 12 months to explain it all over again, I suspect.

I agree with you to a certain extent. However the original "tissue" or prices are based on form and expert opinion.

Then if there is a lot of money the odds will contract or lengthen. The same after games are played.

There is of course an overlap in that money usually is significant in that it is based on knowledge. 

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Leeds Wire

Leeds Wire

Posted
Posted
50 minutes ago, dboy said:

Bookies odds reflect the money wagered against a given outcome, and thus the potential loss to said booky.

The more money likely to be (early markets), and ultimately actually wagered on a given outcome, the lower the odds.

Hence, bookies expect more money to be wagered on Widnes than say, York.

Odds are a reflection of exposure to loss, not simply a reflection of likelihood.

I didn't understand any of that!  

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Sir Kevin Sinfield

Sir Kevin Sinfield

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, The Future is League said:

I would be surprised if Widnes finished inside the top 4.

Puts tin hat on and waits for reply's

It’s no longer the top 4, it’s now a top 5 play off, the grand final winner into Super Leauge. I expect 

1 Toronto - Super League squad in the Championship 

2 Toulouse - Some strong French players will build on last year

3 Widnes- Should beat most Championship clubs

4 Featherstone - Heavily reliant on Leeds dual reg players, will benefit from Leeds strengthening this year

5 Bradford - Hopefully they can regain their rightful Super League place in the next few years, the owners ambitious 

6 Halifax - To just miss out this year 

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The Blues Ox

The Blues Ox

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Sir Kevin Sinfield said:

It’s no longer the top 4, it’s now a top 5 play off, the grand final winner into Super Leauge. I expect 

1 Toronto - Super League squad in the Championship 

2 Toulouse - Some strong French players will build on last year

3 Widnes- Should beat most Championship clubs

4 Featherstone - Heavily reliant on Leeds dual reg players, will benefit from Leeds strengthening this year

5 Bradford - Hopefully they can regain their rightful Super League place in the next few years, the owners ambitious 

6 Halifax - To just miss out this year 

That would be a disastrous year for us given how we have strengthened our team and the teams around us have got weaker. 

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fevtom

fevtom

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, dboy said:

Do we have to do this every sodding year!?

Bookies odds reflect the money wagered against a given outcome, and thus the potential loss to said booky.

The more money likely to be (early markets), and ultimately actually wagered on a given outcome, the lower the odds.

Hence, bookies expect more money to be wagered on Widnes than say, York.

Odds are a reflection of exposure to loss, not simply a reflection of likelihood.

See you again in 12 months to explain it all over again, I suspect.

That’s how bookmakers are supposed to work in theory but it’s not really relevant to championship rugby where there’s so little money put on that a couple of decent sized bets could make Barrow the favourites or the market could be manipulated. They have experts and statisticians who know Toronto are the best team in the league and the odds will already be heavily weighted in their favour before a penny is bet, these odds will then fluctuate a little depending where the money goes but again, with the small amounts involved at this level I can’t see anything radical happening.

If you can let me know when the premier league betting opens and every team is 20/1 so I can lay I fair chunk on Man City I will bow to our superior knowledge.

Perhaps I can offer to come back in twelve months and explain this to you again?

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Bartholemew Smythe

Bartholemew Smythe

Posted
Posted
21 hours ago, chuffer said:

Fairly standard i would have thought (that bookies expect a recently relegated team to do well in the lower division)....yeh we've lost a load of players but not many of them have done much this season to warrant being missed....i expect we'll be top 4, possibly top 3....toronto and toulouse have already proven that they can beat us so expect them to be top 2

You`ve got a better coach and a cracking signing in Liam Hood,sad to see both leave Leigh.

We`re on a road to Nowhere.......................

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