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1 hour ago, ckn said:

Unfortunately, the tool used to record deaths was down for 18 of the 24 hours that that number covered. It’s a number you can’t put much credibility towards. 

I have just read on the Daily Telegraph site that there was a technical problem in Northern Ireland and so their figures were not included in the final tally (not for the first time).  Is this the technical glitch you are referring to here or do you know of another one?

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28 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

Depressed further after your post by reading there have been three deaths in St Helens over the last 24 hours after three straight days of no deaths.  Infections have gone up again but only by the same number as on previous days.

So I don't want to talk about numbers of deaths anymore.  Instead I will pivot to the enthusiasm of the people on the Isle of White for the new App.  Apparently 66% of the people able to download it, have downloaded it. 

 

Want to be even more depressed? Here’s the extent of the CQC holding care providers to account just now. 

They promised that from tomorrow they’ll  start calling NHS providers to see how they’re doing. Seriously. That’s it. 

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"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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1 minute ago, Saintslass said:

I have just read on the Daily Telegraph site that there was a technical problem in Northern Ireland and so their figures were not included in the final tally (not for the first time).  Is this the technical glitch you are referring to here or do you know of another one?

The England-wide service was the one I mentioned, it impacted most English NHS Trusts. I didn’t know about the NI problem. 

I gave up watching the daily briefings and only watch them when there’s someone I know or like on them. For example, on Friday Dr Nikki Kanani was on, she’s a bit of a GP superstar


"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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35 minutes ago, ckn said:

The England-wide service was the one I mentioned, it impacted most English NHS Trusts. I didn’t know about the NI problem. 

I gave up watching the daily briefings and only watch them when there’s someone I know or like on them. For example, on Friday Dr Nikki Kanani was on, she’s a bit of a GP superstar

Ah..  I was hoping you would say something like 'Yes, that's the one I meant!'  Alas.  That means the numbers could be even more rubbish than I thought. ? 

And then the CQC has clearly become a force to reckon with, if you happen to be a cuddly toy.  What a waste of space they are!

On the daily briefings, I still watch them except for Mondays when I'm on the ASDA run.  I watch them in case there is a useful update, as indeed there was today although obviously I'm trying to tell myself that we will be lucky to find a vaccine anywhere at any time in the future etc, etc, so as to keep hope dead.

I think I will go and watch a trashy movie to cheer myself up again!

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57 minutes ago, LeeF said:

Thank you

My, very simplistic & quick, interpretation of that graph is that the downward trend was not really occurring before they re-opened

The downward trend started approx.10 days (10th April) after the stay at home order began (1st April) while at around the same time mobility (somewhat counter intuitively - rebellion?) started to increase. About a week later (16th April) the trend flattened. Then a few days later (20th) parks reopened and just over a week later (29th) the trend started to climb, flattening again early in May (5th). The stay at home order ended 1st May and 10 days later the trend again took an upward turn. Now, it could be entirely coincidence but seems a bit too much to me.

Edited by Les Tonks Sidestep
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1 hour ago, Saintslass said:

Ah..  I was hoping you would say something like 'Yes, that's the one I meant!'  Alas.  That means the numbers could be even more rubbish than I thought. ? 

And then the CQC has clearly become a force to reckon with, if you happen to be a cuddly toy.  What a waste of space they are!

On the daily briefings, I still watch them except for Mondays when I'm on the ASDA run.  I watch them in case there is a useful update, as indeed there was today although obviously I'm trying to tell myself that we will be lucky to find a vaccine anywhere at any time in the future etc, etc, so as to keep hope dead.

I think I will go and watch a trashy movie to cheer myself up again!

The difference between this vaccine and the others, such as HIV, is that this one has almost everyone capable of making one doing so. HIV got high attention but very limited pharma attention as there was little chance of massive money in it for such a tough virus to treat. 

I’m fairly convinced (in as much as a complete amateur using media information can be) that we’ll have some vaccine ready this year. Even if it’s not wholly effective and has some side effects. 


"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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2 hours ago, Les Tonks Sidestep said:

The 7 day average for new cases was 901/day in the week up to reopening. The last week has seen an average of 1369. Chart of 7 day rolling average of new cases from the end of March till now. Although by no means conclusive, the number of new cases appears to follow increased mobility, opening of parks and the ending of the stay at home order. 

I know it can be slightly counter intuitive, but increasing testing will probably lead to increased cases.  So detected cases could be going up while actual cases are going down.  How you pick it out from the raw figures I don't know.  Some places use % of tests positive, but without proper figures that might be hard to get.

 

*proper figures means cases per actual test results, not postage.  

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With the best, thats a good bit of PR, though I would say the Bedford team, theres, like, you know, 13 blokes who can get together at the weekend to have a game together, which doesnt point to expansion of the game. Point, yeah go on!

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3 hours ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

I know it can be slightly counter intuitive, but increasing testing will probably lead to increased cases.  So detected cases could be going up while actual cases are going down.  How you pick it out from the raw figures I don't know.  Some places use % of tests positive, but without proper figures that might be hard to get.

 

*proper figures means cases per actual test results, not postage.  

I use number of deaths to number of positive cases as a guide for how broad the testing is.

The premise is that, for developed countries, the death rate is a constant, which means this ratio will be smaller if you test more than just the worst symptomatic cases.

For an individual country, if the slope goes up it implies that the scope of testing is being reduced and vice versa.

image.png.3aa816c780eb5074d56ddf5ce964dd12.png

So for this graph you could infer that the UK, Spain, Italy and Sweden are testing more narrowly than other countries.

The graph from the start of May looks like this:

image.png.c1a3e976658925d9556b56c5997447cd.png

Which suggests that the UK is indeed increasing the scope of its testing.

An increase in testing would always increase the proportion of positive cases detected, but the proportion of positive to negative results would decrease.

 

 

(*When you have a government who knows the price of everything & the value of nothing, they'll probably count cost of postage, so sending them first class will improve the data - sorry a bit political)

Edited by Wholly Trinity
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I attended a call on Friday with a very senior banker. To say his economic outlook for the rest of 2020 was bleak is putting it lightly.

 

 

 

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My Dad was a teacher and ended up as a kind of mini-headmaster within a large comprehensive. He once said that some of his teachers were as bad as the kids in trying to avoid going to school.

?


Under Scrutiny by the Right-On Thought Police

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56 minutes ago, Wolford6 said:

My Dad was a teacher and ended up as a kind of mini-headmaster within a large comprehensive. He once said that some of his teachers were as bad as the kids in trying to avoid going to school.

?

Well this is today's message from my children's head (she is head of a c1500 pupil comp)

Dear Parents and Carers,

I hope you have all had a good weekend. So, the final week of this half term, I feel I need to state that as I feel all the weeks are merging into one! Summer term two is about to begin, very strange.

It is virtual sports week, thank you to xxxxxx and the PE dept for organising the events, please try and support if you can. We wait to see on Friday if there are any surprising personal bests amongst us!

A few updates:

The percentage of staff impacted by COVID-19 remains at 34%.

We have now issued £11,325 in vouchers for free school meals.

The school is open throughout half term to continue our Care Provision. Attendance to the provision is rising which is good.

Well, last week saw a number of different Government guidance released, reviewed, released again……I am currently on version 5 of our proposal for the wider opening of the school to incorporate supplementary support to year 10 and 12. Our risk assessment is nearly complete, I am going through the final checks and I will share this with you on Wednesday. I will also share with you my initial proposal for our supplementary provision. My return to school plan is gradual and very measured, starting very small and building from there. The risk assessment is thorough, and will ensure that the site is COVID secure and that social distancing can be strictly followed.

For half term, please plan to take it as a half term as much as you possibly can. I have asked staff to not set/follow up work during this time with families. Take the opportunity to have a rest and switch off!

As always, thank you for your ongoing support.

Take care and stay safe,

xxxxxxxx

Headteacher.

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11 minutes ago, SSoutherner said:

Well this is today's message from my children's head (she is head of a c1500 pupil comp)

Dear Parents and Carers,

A few updates:

The percentage of staff impacted by COVID-19 remains at 34%.

 

So 34% of the teachers won't be going back. Who'd be surprised if a few more are on the blower, ringing their doctors about stress.


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11 minutes ago, Wolford6 said:

So 34% of the teachers won't be going back. Who'd be surprised if a few more are on the blower, ringing their doctors about stress.

other messages have gone into more detail on that number

 

Some are off as they or family they live with have medical conditions listed as meaning they have to stay shielded, others are in 7 or 14 day periods due to either symptoms or living in a house with people who have had or have symptoms, 

If you read it says "impacted by" not "signed off with", I know one of my daughters teachers had a bypass operation last year, I suspect she is part of the "shielded" group - she is issuing work remotely for my daughter but i doubt she would be considered safe to work in an open classroom currently

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4 minutes ago, Bedford Roughyed said:

I know it can be slightly counter intuitive, but increasing testing will probably lead to increased cases.  So detected cases could be going up while actual cases are going down.  How you pick it out from the raw figures I don't know.  Some places use % of tests positive, but without proper figures that might be hard to get.

 

*proper figures means cases per actual test results, not postage.  

Agree - and like I said my ponderings are far from conclusive given the complexities you mention. I do know tests were ramped up from ca 8000/day in mid April to just over 16000 at the beginning of May and then stayed reasonably steady (fell slightly to just under 1600) to the 11th but not sure after that - there is also the possibility that they are targeting known hotspots to further complicate things. The next days and weeks will tell.

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"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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Good to see someone knows the power  of GIS, a technique I mentioned some weeks ago.

Spoke to Bro in law near Ayr last week. They've had 6 Covid deaths last week. . When they are called anywhere, mainly Scottish  care homes at present,  they have to wear full body/face suits, Bodies double bagged and straight into coffin.

One issue: rhe says relatives complaining that docs add Covid 1 to list of causes on death cert.when that has not been confirmed.

No limos in cortege. Limited number of attendees have to go by their own cars, following hearse. Last week, cortege got separated from hearse for some reason but joined another one heading for a different crem! 


Four legs good - two legs bad

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The figures are horribly high.

I was very skeptical of the hopeful idea that many millions had already been infected. But, if the fatality rate is about 0.5% (based on Danish figures, where there is good testing), then we would be looking at around 7,000,000 cases. That is enough to start having some limitation of the spread.

Just back of fag packet calculations.


"You clearly have never met Bob8 then, he's like a veritable Bryan Ferry of RL." - Johnoco 19 Jul 2014

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I left Bradford University in 1975. I am 66 this month. The Alumni Association has just sent me a missive containing this.

To be fair, it's good of them to care about some of our younger alumni. :kolobok_yes:

With difficult economic times ahead, for some people it could be the right time to return to university to receive a higher qualification or completely change career, by for example, training to be a healthcare professional

Edited by Wolford6
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46 minutes ago, JohnM said:

Good to see someone knows the power  of GIS, a technique I mentioned some weeks ago.

Spoke to Bro in law near Ayr last week. They've had 6 Covid deaths last week. . When they are called anywhere, mainly Scottish  care homes at present,  they have to wear full body/face suits, Bodies double bagged and straight into coffin.

One issue: rhe says relatives complaining that docs add Covid 1 to list of causes on death cert.when that has not been confirmed.

No limos in cortege. Limited number of attendees have to go by their own cars, following hearse. Last week, cortege got separated from hearse for some reason but joined another one heading for a different crem! 

I'm going to the funeral of my godmother this week.  She was in a nursing home, developed a cough, was isolated in her room for the remaining weeks of her life wondering what she had done wrong as she had full blown dementia and didn't understand.  She didn't develop any other known symptoms of Covid but 'probable Covid' has gone down on her death certificate and the funeral arrangements are exactly as you describe.  I'm representing my Mum who was her lifelong friend, giving a eulogy on her behalf to the handful of other people allowed to attend.  I am walking there as I don't have a car but the funeral directors have been lovely.  They are going the long way around so that they pass my Mum's house where they will stop a little while outside her living room window to give her a moment to say her goodbyes safely.  I found that incredibly touching.

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1 hour ago, ckn said:

 

Does that denote where people who died are from or where they actually died?  It's a very stark representation and brings home just how much this disease loves people living close together.

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1 hour ago, JohnM said:

One issue: rhe says relatives complaining that docs add Covid 1 to list of causes on death cert.when that has not been confirmed.

 

13 minutes ago, Saintslass said:

  She didn't develop any other known symptoms of Covid but 'probable Covid' has gone down on her death certificate 

On social media I have read about quite a few 'concerns' from families who's loved ones die and have 'probable Covid' on the death cert, I wold have thought to be included in the 'daily death figures' there would have to be a blood test of the deceased at least, and not just an assumption made. Anyone know if this is the case?

 

EYSTlE.jpg

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Yeah, there’s a lot of nonsense about covid being added to death certificates for giggles.

Like most things old people share on social media: it’s not true.

 

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Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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4 minutes ago, gingerjon said:

Yeah, there’s a lot of nonsense about covid being added to death certificates for giggles.

Like most things old people share on social media: it’s not true.

 

It wouldn’t matter anyway they can be added to death certificates as much as they want they still won’t be counted in the numbers the government are using. The 34k odd that they use are only people who’ve died after testing positive.  

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