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3 hours ago, Skids said:

There's more dog cak, certainly in the south of France, than anywhere I've visited in the world. Yes, I  have been  to Featherstone. 

Try malta for dog ######.its worse than sheffield.

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Well... after 66 days in ICU my sister's fella who was described as being as near to death as can be without dying.... has made it. He's home. Half the fella he was.... and the virus has ravaged his l

I'm not putting up with this goading of a volunteer moderator who does a sterling job on my behalf generally on here, but especially recently when I was ill for almost a month with what might well hav

Well my sister's fella is making very small steps in the right direction. From being described as as near to death without being dead, he's now sat up, off dialysis and yesterday was breathing on

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Just last weekend the media were going endlessly on about how people were overcrowding beaches and how such behaviour could bring a second wave of infection.

Not a single word is said about the protests taking place over something that didn't even happen in this country.  I cannot believe what I am seeing on the TV and social media at the moment.  There was another one in Liverpool today and Manchester, two places where mayors have highlighted the level of infection in their cities and yet they are allowing protests that go on for ages and have hundreds of people standing right next to each other, shouting a lot.  As far as I can see, not a single one of them has been broken up by the police and yet large gatherings can actually be broken up legally under covid law.

I find this very, very worrying.

 

 

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8 hours ago, Saintslass said:

Just last weekend the media were going endlessly on about how people were overcrowding beaches and how such behaviour could bring a second wave of infection.

Not a single word is said about the protests taking place over something that didn't even happen in this country.  I cannot believe what I am seeing on the TV and social media at the moment.  There was another one in Liverpool today and Manchester, two places where mayors have highlighted the level of infection in their cities and yet they are allowing protests that go on for ages and have hundreds of people standing right next to each other, shouting a lot.  As far as I can see, not a single one of them has been broken up by the police and yet large gatherings can actually be broken up legally under covid law.

I find this very, very worrying.

 

 

Do you feel the same, or more or less worried, about the gatherings at Bournemouth beach and Lulworth Cove? These are gatherings.

Or is a suntan and an ice cream more important? 

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8 hours ago, Saintslass said:

Just last weekend the media were going endlessly on about how people were overcrowding beaches and how such behaviour could bring a second wave of infection.

Not a single word is said about the protests taking place over something that didn't even happen in this country.  I cannot believe what I am seeing on the TV and social media at the moment.  There was another one in Liverpool today and Manchester, two places where mayors have highlighted the level of infection in their cities and yet they are allowing protests that go on for ages and have hundreds of people standing right next to each other, shouting a lot.  As far as I can see, not a single one of them has been broken up by the police and yet large gatherings can actually be broken up legally under covid law.

I find this very, very worrying.

 

 

Perhaps the protesters should have just taken it in turns to drive to Barnard Castle.

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Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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1 hour ago, shaun mc said:

Do you feel the same, or more or less worried, about the gatherings at Bournemouth beach and Lulworth Cove? These are gatherings.

Or is a suntan and an ice cream more important? 

To be fair to Saintslass, she has consistently noted her concerns about massed gatherings of all types.

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3 hours ago, Les Tonks Sidestep said:

Just had an email confirming that our flight to Krakow at the end of the month is going ahead. It might be but we won't be on it *

* unless a readily available miracle cure is discovered in the next 3 and a bit weeks of course!

The UK government travel advice is still not to travel therefore your insurer should pay out. Why not ask them?

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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13 minutes ago, ckn said:

The UK government travel advice is still not to travel therefore your insurer should pay out. Why not ask them?

The excess on our policy is around the cost of the flight (75p more!) otherwise we would be! It's a self booked/planned trip so we've already cancelled the hotels and the excursions/visits that haven't already been cancelled by the providers. We were expecting the flight out would be cancelled (and hoping the return would be too but we had less hope of that) and would gladly have taken vouchers to use (sometime) in the future!

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Travelodge applying for a CVA:

As part of our Covid-19 recovery plan, we have today launched a legal process known as a company voluntary arrangement, or CVA. The aim of the CVA process is to allow us, subject to the agreement of our creditors, to manage our rent payments at certain hotels.

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12 hours ago, shaun mc said:

Do you feel the same, or more or less worried, about the gatherings at Bournemouth beach and Lulworth Cove? These are gatherings.

Or is a suntan and an ice cream more important? 

Yes.  I even mentioned it on page 265 of this very thread.

There are two differences though between being on the beach and being at a protest.  On the beach people are mostly sitting down which immediately puts distance between them.  They are often up and about to the sea, playing games, etc, and generally they aren't shouting within close proximity.  At a protest, people are shouting and they are standing possibly for hours within touching distance.  Shouting - like singing - is known by scientists to spread the virus further than talking (although of course talking can spread it too), and touching/standing right beside someone is of course also a good way of spreading the disease.

So yes, I have been anxious about both these types of mass gatherings but I am much more anxious about the protests.  And the police have done nothing in any of the places where the protests have been taking place.  Liverpool being one and Manchester another, where both mayors have been vocal about there being a high level of virus.  Yet they are silent.

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41 minutes ago, Les Tonks Sidestep said:

Travelodge applying for a CVA:

As part of our Covid-19 recovery plan, we have today launched a legal process known as a company voluntary arrangement, or CVA. The aim of the CVA process is to allow us, subject to the agreement of our creditors, to manage our rent payments at certain hotels.

I read earlier today that the intention is not to shut any sites and that future rent may be linked to future bookings

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5 minutes ago, LeeF said:

I read earlier today that the intention is not to shut any sites and that future rent may be linked to future bookings

Yes - we've got a couple of rooms booked for the night before holidays. I've had an email that basically says those bookings aren't (although that's probably shouldn't be) affected. We definitely won't be using the one at the end of this month even if they were allowed to open, but will hopefully (although I've not got much TBH) be using the one we've booked in September.

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Should be enjoying a pleasant week in a nice little bungalow in Lincolnshire.The rental company cancelled weeks ago but allowed us to book the same week next year at no extra cost.This suited me the missus and the dog.Got another cottage booked in Brid for September and hope we'll be allowed to go on that one.Fingers crossed.

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A guide to the two different types of test you will increasing be able to access.

Testing.jpg

"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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3 hours ago, Wholly Trinity said:

The stats from Brazil continue to make grim reading. 

A month ago, they were comparable with the UK. Now, they are overtaking the US.

Let it never be said that lockdown was an over reaction or unnecessary. 

image.png.37994f1aeb118baa421b7d9974fe768e.png

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You say that but there is one thing I'm curious about, because I genuinely don't understand what the implications may be.

In the UK, it is still the case that the highest number of daily deaths occurred on 8 April.  This is still considered to be the peak of the virus here.  According to the scientists I have heard speak on the matter, in order to get to the stage where someone dies from Covid 19, a person will usually have been infected on average between 21 and 28 days prior to their death (obviously some people spend a long time in hospital before they die; likewise some die very quickly after becoming infected).  Therefore, that would suggest the peak of infections occurred around 11 to 18 March, ie before our full lockdown came into being.

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8 hours ago, Robin Evans said:

Had my antibody test yesterday

Ldbh-nhs.sms@dbth.nhs.uk Automated Message: Your COVID Antibody is negative - ANTIBODY NOT DETECTED - No evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, this does NOT exclude recent infection. Please continue to follow up to date PHE guidance.

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1 hour ago, Robin Evans said:

Ldbh-nhs.sms@dbth.nhs.uk Automated Message: Your COVID Antibody is negative - ANTIBODY NOT DETECTED - No evidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection. However, this does NOT exclude recent infection. Please continue to follow up to date PHE guidance.

Does that relate to the fact that antibodies can only be detected 14 to 28 days after the infection?  I suppose you could end up being endlessly tested at this rate to find out whether you've ever had Covid (assuming you aren't aware of having it at the time of course).

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I watched an interview yesterday with the chap who runs the home for the Chelsea Pensioners, where some of the residents died from and quite a number were infected by Covid.  Apparently the home locked down a full two weeks before the national lockdown was announced and the staff put in place all manner of policies and procedures to protect themselves from the disease, but it still managed to get in.  The home is still locked down but the residents have been able to enjoy some socially distanced outdoor events among themselves which is good to hear.

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I knew it. Something dodgy about men who can’t even keep hair on their heads. 

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"When in deadly danger, when beset by doubt; run in little circles, wave your arms and shout"

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12 hours ago, Saintslass said:

You say that but there is one thing I'm curious about, because I genuinely don't understand what the implications may be.

In the UK, it is still the case that the highest number of daily deaths occurred on 8 April.  This is still considered to be the peak of the virus here.  According to the scientists I have heard speak on the matter, in order to get to the stage where someone dies from Covid 19, a person will usually have been infected on average between 21 and 28 days prior to their death (obviously some people spend a long time in hospital before they die; likewise some die very quickly after becoming infected).  Therefore, that would suggest the peak of infections occurred around 11 to 18 March, ie before our full lockdown came into being.

Okidoki, 

I think the main thing you're missing here is who was tested and when.

It may be that there is 21/28 days between infection and death, but at what stage of that process were people actually tested and confirmed?

There is an average of 5 days between infection and showing symptoms.

Covid-Progression-Chart-scaled.jpg

https://www.drugs.com/medical-answers/covid-19-symptoms-progress-death-3536264/

The testing regime in March was so poor that the track and trace was abandoned. Most people were not tested, even with symptoms. Generally, only those who were hospitalised actually got a test when ARDS set in. For the worst cases, how long was it between testing/confirmation and death? a week?

The effect of the lockdown would be quite immediate on the number of cases, but the start was rather stuttering with an 'informal' advisory stage from 16th, official announcement 23rd and actual formal stage on 25th. 

A gradual increase in testing meant that the number of cases continued to rise as the scope was broader. 

The number of daily deaths peaked on 8th April, but didn't really start reducing until a week or so later, a month after the start of lockdown.

I had to get data from the ONS website as I only collected data myself after lockdown.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases

Interestingly, the peak of cases and peak of deaths were only one day apart. This is most likely because of the inconsistent nature and variable scope of the testing regime.

image.png.ea7ba0ce7a6e3c36adb53cd10a494baf.png

image.png.22fa39bd643984ea48ae7bbbe0136bc1.png

The discussion of why it took so long to organise the lockdown is obviously for a different thread.

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16 hours ago, Saintslass said:

You say that but there is one thing I'm curious about, because I genuinely don't understand what the implications may be.

In the UK, it is still the case that the highest number of daily deaths occurred on 8 April.  This is still considered to be the peak of the virus here.  According to the scientists I have heard speak on the matter, in order to get to the stage where someone dies from Covid 19, a person will usually have been infected on average between 21 and 28 days prior to their death (obviously some people spend a long time in hospital before they die; likewise some die very quickly after becoming infected).  Therefore, that would suggest the peak of infections occurred around 11 to 18 March, ie before our full lockdown came into being.

I may be misunderstanding, but wouldn't that be expected? Coming up with the conclusion that the virus was rifling across the population prior to lockdown would be a sensible one wouldn't it? 

I would suggest that the lockdown created the peak 3 weeks later, no lockdown would surely have meant continued infection and the numbers would have kept increasing past that April 8th.

Therefore we could suggest that the lockdown meant we created a peak on the 8th, and that had we locked down earlier, the peak would have been earlier and possibly lower as fewer people would have been infected. 

I also saw a number of 18 days for death from infection. 

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