Sun 30 Oct: RLWC: Samoa v France KO 17:00

[north yorks trinity]

6 hours ago, Tommygilf said:

If France turn up like they did against England they will give themselves more than a chance to win this game. 

Kick long to turn them around, avoid giving away 6 agains as much as possible and this is a game France can win.

The 6 again thing will probably have more to do with whether we have a SH ref than anything within France's control. That said, I suspect it will have more of a bearing on Samoa's margin of victory than whether they win. I'm hoping for a France win but predicting Samoa by a couple of scores, more if the ref's interpretations favour Samoa.

[Dunbar]

This is probably the most intriguing game of the competition so far for me.

You have a Samoan team that has been ridiculously overhyped and who were awful against England against a French team that can be rocks or diamonds.

What we saw from these two playing England is that they will be pretty well matched.

I have said all along that I think Samoa lack creativity.  Against Greece this was irrelevant as they could get over the top of them physically.  Against England who showed a disciplined and well organised defence, Samoa were clueless.

So it boils down to whether Samoa can physically bully the French.  I don't think that is an easy ask, the French have some good players and looked reasonable against England.

I am going for this to be a tight match and France to pinch the win.

[SydneyRoosters]

I posted this in another thread but thought I’d post it here also

Looking back at the Samoa vs Greece game none of Samoa’s tries came through structure and they were all made through sheer physical dominance. This will not be an option against a first grade side like France. Samoa’s overall attack has looked very clunky and unsmooth, there is no real structure and the don’t look like a proper footy team. If France have a fairly solid defensive display they will easily hold Samoa to only a few Tries, and the tries that Samoa do score will all be from a bit of individual brilliance rather than teamwork.

France are a Rugby league team. consisting of players who play with each other week in and week out, most of them have probably known each other since they were around 14-15. There Cohesion is elite and unmatched by any other word cup team.

Samoa are the total opposite, there 13 players who have been put on a pitch to do an individual job rather than to work cohesively. That is probably more of a criticism to the Samoan coaching rather than players but the player’s individually have looked really poor also.

I simply can’t see how a team like Samoa can beat a team like France. Most people predicting Samoa are sheerly comparing the 2 team lists and nothing else, there’s so much other factors going into this game and I just don’t see Samoa winning.

I’ve been very good in my predictions so far this tournament and I’m very confident this one is correct too, but we’ll see. I will say this though If Samoa do win it will be through Individual brilliance and strong kick returns, Samoa are much stronger in the outside backs so that is where there points will stem from.

[moorside roughyed]

Just looking forward to a competitive game as I'll be there. I may sway a little towards Samoa though.

[AB90]

5 hours ago, SydneyRoosters said:

After a lot of analysis I back the French. My prediction comes down to a lot of things but to summarise it take look at the Set completion for both Nations. Last week Samoa Completed 65% of there sets against Greece Whilst France Completed 90% AGAINST ENGLAND. I think it will make the difference and France win in good fashion.

Everything you say is correct but realistically (imo) Samoa are player for player better than France which must mean something.

If you did a combined Samoa/French game day 17 how many French players would make it? I’d say maybe Benjamin Garcia and maybe 1 more at the most. 

I just can’t see how the French win from a talent perspective.

[ATLANTISMAN]

Back from Spain for this one driving up to sunny Warrington on Sunday morning:)

Samoa win but hopefully by no more than 20 i go for 24-12

 

Paul

[SydneyRoosters]

1 minute ago, AB90 said:

Everything you say is correct but realistically (imo) Samoa are player for player better than France which must mean something.

If you did a combined Samoa/French game day 17 how many French players would make it? I’d say maybe Benjamin Garcia and maybe 1 more at the most. 

I just can’t see how the French win from a talent perspective.

I agree on individual talent Samoa win, but Samoa have been abnormally poor in team cohesion this tournament and the regular consistently good NRL players are playing poor of the back of it. Good Teammates allow good players to shine and Samoa don’t really have that right now.

On Talent there is no chance England could have beat Samoa 60-6 but so much more factors go went into and the result displayed that.

[AB90]

1 hour ago, SydneyRoosters said:

I posted this in another thread but thought I’d post it here also

Looking back at the Samoa vs Greece game none of Samoa’s tries came through structure and they were all made through sheer physical dominance. This will not be an option against a first grade side like France. Samoa’s overall attack has looked very clunky and unsmooth, there is no real structure and the don’t look like a proper footy team. If France have a fairly solid defensive display they will easily hold Samoa to only a few Tries, and the tries that Samoa do score will all be from a bit of individual brilliance rather than teamwork.

France are a Rugby league team. consisting of players who play with each other week in and week out, most of them have probably known each other since they were around 14-15. There Cohesion is elite and unmatched by any other word cup team.

Samoa are the total opposite, there 13 players who have been put on a pitch to do an individual job rather than to work cohesively. That is probably more of a criticism to the Samoan coaching rather than players but the player’s individually have looked really poor also.

I simply can’t see how a team like Samoa can beat a team like France. Most people predicting Samoa are sheerly comparing the 2 team lists and nothing else, there’s so much other factors going into this game and I just don’t see Samoa winning.

I’ve been very good in my predictions so far this tournament and I’m very confident this one is correct too, but we’ll see. I will say this though If Samoa do win it will be through Individual brilliance and strong kick returns, Samoa are much stronger in the outside backs so that is where there points will stem from.

‘Samoa are much stronger in the backs’…….and the forwards, and the halves and every single position on the park. Which is why I think Samoa will win fairly comfortably.

I just think banking on the French to hold Samoa to ‘only a few tries’ is wishful thinking.

Happy to be proven wrong like you did with the England/Samoa game.

 

[GeordieSaint]

Samoa. 

They’ll be too strong and too fast for the French. 

[Number 16]

The French almost always underperform and it's been three decades since they last experienced a significant win.

They're due one and I believe Sunday could be that day. 

[ivans82]

Seems i was a little late to the party , just backed France +24.5 with Coral , when it looks like 30 was on offer elsewhere .DOH!

[dunno much]

2 hours ago, George Watt said:

Samoa will be far too strong for France and will win comfortably.

Ditto from me

[Tex Evans Thigh]

Amazing that people think that France can win this. I give them virtually no chance and can see a heavy Samoan victory but more likely something like 40-10. France are notoriously weak minded and I can see Samoa being extremely focused for this one.

[Man of Kent]

Betfred have Samoa at 1/500 to win: https://www.betfred.com/sports/market-group/20574055.2

[Dunbar]

3 hours ago, SydneyRoosters said:

I’ve been very good in my predictions so far this tournament and I’m very confident this one is correct too

I think to be fair it hasn't been a very difficult competition to pick.  A lot of the games have had very strong favourites and only a couple difficult to pick.

That's not to be negative on the competition overall, just saying that most of us would have tipped the majority of the winners I think.

[Dunbar]

3 minutes ago, Man of Kent said:

Betfred have Samoa at 1/500 to win: https://www.betfred.com/sports/market-group/20574055.2

14/1 for France looks like a really good price to me.

Edited October 27, 2022 by Dunbar

[Niels]

3 hours ago, SydneyRoosters said:

I posted this in another thread but thought I’d post it here also

Looking back at the Samoa vs Greece game none of Samoa’s tries came through structure and they were all made through sheer physical dominance. This will not be an option against a first grade side like France. Samoa’s overall attack has looked very clunky and unsmooth, there is no real structure and the don’t look like a proper footy team. If France have a fairly solid defensive display they will easily hold Samoa to only a few Tries, and the tries that Samoa do score will all be from a bit of individual brilliance rather than teamwork.

France are a Rugby league team. consisting of players who play with each other week in and week out, most of them have probably known each other since they were around 14-15. There Cohesion is elite and unmatched by any other word cup team.

Samoa are the total opposite, there 13 players who have been put on a pitch to do an individual job rather than to work cohesively. That is probably more of a criticism to the Samoan coaching rather than players but the player’s individually have looked really poor also.

I simply can’t see how a team like Samoa can beat a team like France. Most people predicting Samoa are sheerly comparing the 2 team lists and nothing else, there’s so much other factors going into this game and I just don’t see Samoa winning.

I’ve been very good in my predictions so far this tournament and I’m very confident this one is correct too, but we’ll see. I will say this though If Samoa do win it will be through Individual brilliance and strong kick returns, Samoa are much stronger in the outside backs so that is where there points will stem from.

You have been very good with your predictions.

After the Ireland v Lebanon game I don't think I am.

For what it is worth I think France have been very well coached and organised, maybe Sean Long has instilled this?

They are obviously very limited comparatively in the halves and backs. But the tactics take this into account. 

The way Samao collapsed and gave up against England was in contrast to how France kept going.

Despite this, the team with the better players usually win. I also thought Samoa looked good against Greece. Jarome Luai could run the game again. 

I think Samoa will win but I can see why you like France.

[Man of Kent]

8 minutes ago, Dunbar said:

14/1 for France looks like a really good price to me.

I'd be tempted if France had a beefier pack that could withstand Samoa's forwards, some pace out wide and a brain inside Tony Gigot's head (!)

Edited October 27, 2022 by Man of Kent

[kiggy]

I would also love to see a French win, albeit by a few points. It does depend on better luck with a few things; a referee who spots forward passes, Gigot not having a brain fart and kicking a good game (a couple of 40-20's might help behind the Samoan defence), Éloi having another good game. Some solid defence. Justine not dropping the ball etc. 

I met Glen Knight on the flight back to France, I had no idea he lived up the road from me, he stopped to chat about Toulouse. We had a chat about the French team in general. I think we agreed that France would come up short against the Samoans but are happy to be proved otherwise.  

Edited October 27, 2022 by kiggy
topup

[Niels]

8 minutes ago, kiggy said:

I would also love to see a French win, albeit by a few points. It does depend on better luck with a few things; a referee who spots forward passes, Gigot not having a brain fart and kicking a good game (a couple of 40-20's might help behind the Samoan defence), Éloi having another good game. Some solid defence. Justine not dropping the ball etc. 

I met Glen Knight on the flight back to France, I had no idea he lived up the road from me, he stopped to chat about Toulouse. We had a chat about the French team in general. I think we agreed that France would come up short against the Samoans but are happy to be proved otherwise.  

Did he play at Huddersfield in the late 70s?

If so I remember seeing him play a great game against Bramley in the Challenge cup.

[kiggy]

1 minute ago, Niels said:

Did he play at Huddersfield in the late 70s?

If so I remember seeing him play a great game against Bramley in the Challenge cup.

Yes he did, and I think Cas too. Also coached TO and France.

We joked about him coming out of retirement as a half as TO need a couple.  

[Niels]

9 minutes ago, kiggy said:

Yes he did, and I think Cas too. Also coached TO and France.

We joked about him coming out of retirement as a half as TO need a couple.  

Thanks. It was a 4th round game at Fartown. He was exceptional that day. Bramley had just beaten Salford after 2 replays.

I was a kid and travelled by coach.

I am glad you mentioned seeing him and that he is doing well.

He suited an open free flowing side I think.

[Harry Stottle]

6 hours ago, SydneyRoosters said:

Samoa are much stronger in the outside backs so that is where there points will stem from

So if the Samoan midfield player's are getting the ball to their outside backs and that does the damage that will be nothing whatsoever to do with structure?

[Harry Stottle]

2 hours ago, Man of Kent said:

Betfred have Samoa at 1/500 to win: https://www.betfred.com/sports/market-group/20574055.2

That is double what the bookies had for Leigh beating Batley at 1/250  and no disrespect to Batley it was always ever going to be a one horse race however well Batley played and raised their game, the same applies to this game France at 14/1 are very generous odds that the bookies hope will entice some bets that they will make a killing with, to anyone fancying France keep your money in your pockets lads, I can't find the odds for Brian To'o to score a hat trick or better but they will be a better bet than backing France.

[Dunbar]

It feels to me like everyone has forgotten that England showed how vastly over rated this Samoan squad is just two weeks ago.