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10 minutes ago, ckn said:

Dear fellow TRL members, this obviously won't apply to you as you're too intelligent as evidenced by your choice of this forum for your rugby fandom. BUT, don't take chloroquine without a NHS doctor specifically prescribing it to you or telling you that you can. Another non-COVID patient from our area in A&E today where it has caused serious side effects.

I know you're scared but poisoning yourself isn't the answer.

And just to add that currently there is absolutely no reliable evidence that it is of any benefit whatsoever either.

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Well... after 66 days in ICU my sister's fella who was described as being as near to death as can be without dying.... has made it. He's home. Half the fella he was.... and the virus has ravaged his l

I'm not putting up with this goading of a volunteer moderator who does a sterling job on my behalf generally on here, but especially recently when I was ill for almost a month with what might well hav

Well my sister's fella is making very small steps in the right direction. From being described as as near to death without being dead, he's now sat up, off dialysis and yesterday was breathing on

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As a diversion from talking about what is and isn't happening here, more on the situation in France.

 

The chloroquine story originated, it seems, in Marseilles where the good doctor Didier Raoult became the pandemic rock star

https://www.ft.com/content/679024aa-d70a-49df-9c77-e4d9967c0f2d

The French govt took a lot of flack for not  taking this seriously ( https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/04/06/thousands-sign-french-call-for--chloroquine-in-virus-fight.html) and my contacts in Vichy are talking of a cover up!

Long used as treatment for malaria and other ailments, chloroquine derivatives are being touted as a miracle cure in the fight against the worsening coronavirus pandemic. But the resulting surge in demand at French pharmacies has alarmed experts who warn against overhyping unproven medicines until large-scale clinical tests are carried out. 

https://www.france24.com/en/20200326-let-hospitals-decide-experts-warn-as-chloroquine-hype-triggers-rush-on-pharmacies

https://www.france24.com/en/20200329-french-expert-says-second-study-shows-malaria-drug-helps-fight-coronavirus

Macron has been to see him, too.

Professor Didier Raoult met Macron at his specialised infectious diseases hospital in Marseille, in a visit that was not announced in advance, the French presidency said.

"The president wants to take into account all the tests and studies, including those of professor Raoult. It is not for him (Macron) to settle the debate, this must be done by scientists," added the official.

https://www.thelocal.fr/20200410/macron-holds-surprise-meeting-with-french-doctor-behind-chloroquine-study

Four legs good - two legs bad

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I can't help but feel as though the numbers are being kept below 1000 intentionally. 

I wouldn't be surprised if they manage to include the care home numbers when we are on our way down and there is a buffer below that 1000 mark. 

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22 minutes ago, Dave T said:

I can't help but feel as though the numbers are being kept below 1000 intentionally. 

I wouldn't be surprised if they manage to include the care home numbers when we are on our way down and there is a buffer below that 1000 mark. 

Dangerously close to political. Happy to take advice from the moderators on this one, however...

I don't know who to believe, but saying that,  I am not remotely interested in conspiracy theories. I don't (perhaps naively) see what the government has to gain from announcing lower hospital deaths than actual. After all, the stick they are getting as a result of ONS data, on lag, would just come back and bite them anyway. 

If they were genuinely into fiddling numbers, you could even argue that it it in the interest of the government to announce larger death figures this week to reinforce the importance of maintaining a lockdown for a further few weeks.

I don't know, but then I am not one of those armchair pundits who thinks that ever was, or will be, a simple answer to tackling such a crisis. (not referring to anyone in particular on here, btw, just the social media moguls who appear to have nothing better to do)

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6 minutes ago, Northern Eel said:

Dangerously close to political. Happy to take advice from the moderators on this one, however...

I don't know who to believe, but saying that,  I am not remotely interested in conspiracy theories. I don't (perhaps naively) see what the government has to gain from announcing lower hospital deaths than actual. After all, the stick they are getting as a result of ONS data, on lag, would just come back and bite them anyway. 

If they were genuinely into fiddling numbers, you could even argue that it it in the interest of the government to announce larger death figures this week to reinforce the importance of maintaining a lockdown for a further few weeks.

I don't know, but then I am not one of those armchair pundits who thinks that ever was, or will be, a simple answer to tackling such a crisis. (not referring to anyone in particular on here, btw, just the social media moguls who appear to have nothing better to do)

My personal view is that they aren't fiddling the figures but what we're seeing is the consequence of having to join up a system that doesn't usually need joining up and certainly not so quickly or with so much pressure riding on it.

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Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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Something totally out of my knowledge-base, but do other countries have organisations similar to the ONS? (I assume they must have) and do they compile the death data in the same way as in the UK? How closely are they linked/funded/sponsored by the respective governments and how much of a lag do they have on their own data? Are similar calls being made/concerns being raised of other governments around the accuracy of reporting?

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5 minutes ago, gingerjon said:

My personal view is that they aren't fiddling the figures but what we're seeing is the consequence of having to join up a system that doesn't usually need joining up and certainly not so quickly or with so much pressure riding on it.

That's my 'hope' I guess, although it is not a great position to be in. I've asked another question just now that perhaps begins to tease out where we might be falling short in reporting terms. 

I would not be surprised if, had the figures been reported with more clarity, transparency and timeliness (in line with ONS data) for all deaths, rather than just hospital deaths, a fair few of those wielding the axe on the current leadership may have been somewhat, if not totally pacified. 

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54 minutes ago, Northern Eel said:

Dangerously close to political. Happy to take advice from the moderators on this one, however...

I don't know who to believe, but saying that,  I am not remotely interested in conspiracy theories. I don't (perhaps naively) see what the government has to gain from announcing lower hospital deaths than actual. After all, the stick they are getting as a result of ONS data, on lag, would just come back and bite them anyway. 

If they were genuinely into fiddling numbers, you could even argue that it it in the interest of the government to announce larger death figures this week to reinforce the importance of maintaining a lockdown for a further few weeks.

I don't know, but then I am not one of those armchair pundits who thinks that ever was, or will be, a simple answer to tackling such a crisis. (not referring to anyone in particular on here, btw, just the social media moguls who appear to have nothing better to do)

 

45 minutes ago, gingerjon said:

My personal view is that they aren't fiddling the figures but what we're seeing is the consequence of having to join up a system that doesn't usually need joining up and certainly not so quickly or with so much pressure riding on it.

 

41 minutes ago, Northern Eel said:

That's my 'hope' I guess, although it is not a great position to be in. I've asked another question just now that perhaps begins to tease out where we might be falling short in reporting terms. 

I would not be surprised if, had the figures been reported with more clarity, transparency and timeliness (in line with ONS data) for all deaths, rather than just hospital deaths, a fair few of those wielding the axe on the current leadership may have been somewhat, if not totally pacified. 

Happy for this to go to the political thread, I must admit to flicking between the two and sometimes forget which I am on!

NE, on your first point that they would want to quote a higher number, if this is true, they could do so, they actually have a higher number, and they don't quote it in their press conferences that are quoted everywhere. They normally just answer the question on this that the ONS numbers are online and transparent, yet never actually use them themselves. They are clearly happier quoting that lower number. They also use  the excuse that they are using international standards, yet France include care homes, so there is precedent for using the ONS number. 

The way the numbers are recorded and reported means they aren't a reflection of when deaths occur in the daily summary, it is when the admin is done (I don't mean that to sound as cold as it does). The numbers would be very easy to manipulate, and even this morning, Hancock was shown on live TV being happy to lie about numbers (claiming he didn't commit to 25k tests by now), so they do not et any benefit of the doubt I am afraid. 

Last week, the numbers escalated quickly and the coverage changed to much more negative and challenging. Those increases stopped very very abruptly. It will be interesting to see whether our tail is longer than others as that would be a sign of manipulation. 

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6 minutes ago, Dave T said:

It will be interesting to see whether our tail is longer than others as that would be a sign of manipulation. 

I think the acid test for those of us who want to use figures only to highlight where they are beginning to improve will come in the fashion you suggest over the coming days. I've seen a chart elsewhere that suggests that there is around a 5 day lag in English hospital deaths, to the extent that yesterday's figures only accounted for 150-200 deaths the day before. The rest were catch up figures. 

We won't be able to hide behind the tail, and I would think that this would make the government go for a longer lockdown if they are attempting to suppress numbers. Again, I would say, there is no point in the government doing that as the ONS statistics are always on their tails. Most people aren't that thick, but perhaps there's enough of them to be fooled! 

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The pre-messaging before today's briefing makes it look like it's being put as a "three weeks but really don't think at the end of that three weeks we're going back to anything like normal".

Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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I think psychologically with people there is a huge difference between returning a 4 figure number compared to 3. It would also put the UK comfortably clear of what countries in Europe are now declaring on a daily basis.

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1 minute ago, gingerjon said:

The pre-messaging before today's briefing makes it look like it's being put as a "three weeks but really don't think at the end of that three weeks we're going back to anything like normal".

And let's face it, that's pretty much what everyone is/was expecting. The unknown is just how long it will take to get back to the old normal. I can't stand that term 'new normal' already! 

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Just now, Damien said:

I think psychologically with people there is a huge difference between returning a 4 figure number compared to 3. It would also put the UK comfortably clear of what countries in Europe are now declaring on a daily basis.

That is where my head is at. And I'm not a conspiracy theorist, I think it is a case of the figures being a bit woolly anyway so they are easy to record a few the day after when you reach your 8 to 900 mark. 

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2 minutes ago, Northern Eel said:

And let's face it, that's pretty much what everyone is/was expecting. The unknown is just how long it will take to get back to the old normal. I can't stand that term 'new normal' already! 

It's what anyone with a brain was expecting. But there do seem to be folk who need it to be spelt out in giant neon letters: whilst 1,000 a day (ish) are dying, you're not getting your old life back.

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Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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Just now, Les Tonks Sidestep said:

Old 'normal' is a long, long way off 

Oh, yes, completely agree. I'm seeing, for example, some European/US briefings (not necessarily government but clearly people who have the ear of government) that large group gatherings may not return until mid-late 2021 or later.

Build a man a fire, and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire, and he'll be warm for the rest of his life. (Terry Pratchett)

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18 minutes ago, gingerjon said:

The pre-messaging before today's briefing makes it look like it's being put as a "three weeks but really don't think at the end of that three weeks we're going back to anything like normal".

Sounds about right; get people expecting such an announcement, and there'll be less surprise and resistance when it is made official.

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"Men will be proud to say 'I am a European'. We hope to see a day when men of every country will think as much of being a European as of being from their native land." (Winston Churchill)

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5 minutes ago, gingerjon said:

Oh, yes, completely agree. I'm seeing, for example, some European/US briefings (not necessarily government but clearly people who have the ear of government) that large group gatherings may not return until mid-late 2021 or later.

Yes I've seen a few of those too although there are plenty dismissing it as nonsense. The 2 closest to an official line I've seen are Nadine Dorries and Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti with both saying as much.

I've posted this link before but worth a read for anyone who wants to see what the modelling predicts for the UK https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/covid-19/report-9-impact-of-npis-on-covid-19/ 

Overall, our results suggest that population-wide social distancing applied to the population as a whole would have the largest impact; and in combination with other interventions – notably home isolation of cases and school and university closure – has the potential to suppress transmission below the threshold of R=1 required to rapidly reduce case incidence. A minimum policy for effective suppression is therefore population-wide social distancing combined with home isolation of cases and school and university closure. 

To avoid a rebound in transmission, these policies will need to be maintained until large stocks of vaccine are available to immunise the population – which could be 18 months or more.  Adaptive hospital surveillance-based triggers for switching on and off population-wide social distancing and school closure offer greater robustness to uncertainty than fixed duration interventions and can be adapted for regional use (e.g. at the state level in the US). 

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Yes, I think some of these posts really should be over om the political sub-forum. I see this forum as one for information and fact, not supposition and argument though its a bit of a grey area around the margins and the mods probably have enough to do already without invoking their intervention.

Here's a test case. Is this political or not?

Boris and other ministers are getting the blame for everything that is or isn't happening, yet there are the great unblamed: serried ranks of superannuated state employees, public servants and NHS directors and senior staff getting in the way of those at the front line who are having to deal with life and death on a daily basis.

Four legs good - two legs bad

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10 minutes ago, JohnM said:

Yes, I think some of these posts really should be over om the political sub-forum. I see this forum as one for information and fact, not supposition and argument though its a bit of a grey area around the margins and the mods probably have enough to do already without invoking their intervention.

Here's a test case. Is this political or not?

Boris and other ministers are getting the blame for everything that is or isn't happening, yet there are the great unblamed: serried ranks of superannuated state employees, public servants and NHS directors and senior staff getting in the way of those at the front line who are having to deal with life and death on a daily basis.

Yes, I'm happy to leave my conversation on the numbers alone on this thread, it was posted in error. 

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Here in Spain I have not seen one single child out playing or wandering around the streets. The schools are closed and will remain so for the foreseable future. Just this afternoon I was speaking to my Spanish neighbour over my garden hedge and asked her why there was no children about. I never knew this but the reason is that even though there is no school, children are not allowed out of their own house or gardens.

Amazingly this is being followed to the letter of the law by the parents and the children.Saying that the Guardia and Special Forces out on the streets can be pretty intimidating.

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6 minutes ago, fairfolly said:

Here in Spain I have not seen one single child out playing or wandering around the streets. The schools are closed and will remain so for the foreseable future. Just this afternoon I was speaking to my Spanish neighbour over my garden hedge and asked her why there was no children about. I never knew this but the reason is that even though there is no school, children are not allowed out of their own house or gardens.

Amazingly this is being followed to the letter of the law by the parents and the children.Saying that the Guardia and Special Forces out on the streets can be pretty intimidating.

I haven’t seen many children out over here but certainly loads of teenagers. I’m amazed how many gangs of what I’d guess are between the ages of 15-20 hanging around precincts and in parks.

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